Using extreme value theory to measure value-at-risk for daily electricity spot prices

The recent deregulation in electricity markets worldwide has heightened the importance of risk management in energy markets. Assessing Value-at-Risk (VaR) in electricity markets is arguably more difficult than in traditional financial markets because the distinctive features of the former result in a highly unusual distribution of returns-electricity returns are highly volatile, display seasonalities in both their mean and volatility, exhibit leverage effects and clustering in volatility, and feature extreme levels of skewness and kurtosis. With electricity applications in mind, this paper proposes a model that accommodates autoregression and weekly seasonals in both the conditional mean and conditional volatility of returns, as well as leverage effects via an EGARCH specification. In addition, extreme value theory (EVT) is adopted to explicitly model the tails of the return distribution. Compared to a number of other parametric models and simple historical simulation based approaches, the proposed EVT-based model performs well in forecasting out-of-sample VaR. In addition, statistical tests show that the proposed model provides appropriate interval coverage in both unconditional and, more importantly, conditional contexts. Overall, the results are encouraging in suggesting that the proposed EVT-based model is a useful technique in forecasting VaR in electricity markets. (c) 2005 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Study of led lamps technologies impact on the utility

With the growing interest in the issue of reducing powerconsumption in electricity applications, energy-saving devises and the problem of their operation gains more attention. The increase in the utilization of energy-saving lamps, especially LED lamps, leads to the wide interest in their influence on the power system. The impact of discussed devices on the voltage and current in the grid must be thoroughly studied before launching devices into the market. The studies undertaken on the LED lamps present in a wide range the issue of harmonic emission from lamps and their influence on power quality. Due to many anufacturing technologies, different LED devices can have various effects on the utility. It is significant to carry out researches concerning the adverse effects of energy-saving lamps in order to utilize devices that meet certain requirements which are set by the international commissions.

Metodología de selección y dimensionado de un SSSC para el control del flujo de potencia en la red eléctrica de transporte

147 p. El contenido del capítulo 6 está sujeto a confidencialidad.

Estimating benefits of energy storage for aggregate storage applications in electricity distribution networks in Queensland

Electric Energy Storage (EES) is considered as one of the promising options for reducing the need for costly upgrades in distribution networks in Queensland (QLD). However, It is expected, the full potential for storage for distribution upgrade deferral cannot be fully realized due to high cost of EES. On the other hand, EES used for distribution deferral application can support a variety of complementary storage applications such as energy price arbitrage, time of use (TOU) energy cost reduction, wholesale electricity market ancillary services, and transmission upgrade deferral. Aggregation of benefits of these complementary storage applications would have the potential for increasing the amount of EES that may be financially attractive to defer distribution network augmentation in QLD. In this context, this paper analyzes distribution upgrade deferral, energy price arbitrage, TOU energy cost reduction, and integrated solar PV-storage benefits of EES devices in QLD.

Applications of electrified dust and dust devil electrodynamics to Martian atmospheric electricity

Atmospheric transport and suspension of dust frequently brings electrification, which may be substantial. Electric fields of 10 kVm-1 to 100 kVm-1 have been observed at the surface beneath suspended dust in the terrestrial atmosphere, and some electrification has been observed to persist in dust at levels to 5 km, as well as in volcanic plumes. The interaction between individual particles which causes the electrification is incompletely understood, and multiple processes are thought to be acting. A variation in particle charge with particle size, and the effect of gravitational separation explains to, some extent, the charge structures observed in terrestrial dust storms. More extensive flow-based modelling demonstrates that bulk electric fields in excess of 10 kV m-1 can be obtained rapidly (in less than 10 s) from rotating dust systems (dust devils) and that terrestrial breakdown fields can be obtained. Modelled profiles of electrical conductivity in the Martian atmosphere suggest the possibility of dust electrification, and dust devils have been suggested as a mechanism of charge separation able to maintain current flow between one region of the atmosphere and another, through a global circuit. Fundamental new understanding of Martian atmospheric electricity will result from the ExoMars mission, which carries the DREAMS (Dust characterization, Risk Assessment, and Environment Analyser on the Martian Surface)-MicroARES (Atmospheric Radiation and Electricity Sensor) instrumentation to Mars in 2016 for the first in situ measurements.

Hawkins electrical guide. Questions, answers & illustrations; a progressive course of study for engineers, electricians, students and those desiring to acquire a working knowledge of electricity and its applications; a practical treatise,

"Credit is largely due to Frank D. Graham ... for the authorship of the Guides, and for the original sketches illustrating electrical principles and construction."--Pref. to no. 1.

Hawkins electrical guide ... Questions, answers & illustrations; a progressive course of study for engineers, electricians, students and those desiring to acquire a working knowledge of electricity and its applications; a practical treatise,

"Credit is largely due to Frank D. Graham ... for the authorship of the Guides, and for the original sketches illustrating electrical principles and construction." --Pref. to no. 1.

Poster : Understanding interactions between autonomous animal control and temperament when cattle are subjected to virtual fencing applications

Virtual fencing has the potential to control grazing livestock. Understanding and refi ning the cues that can alter behaviour is an integral part of autonomous animal control. A series of tests have been completed to explore the relationship between temperament and control. Prior to exposure to virtual fencing control the animals were scored for temperament using fl ight speed and a sociability index using contact logging devices. The behavioural response of 30, Belmont Red steers were observed for behavioural changes when presented with cues prior to receiving an electrical stimulation. A control and four treatments designed to interrupt the animal’s movement down an alley were tested. The treatments consisted of sound plus electrical stimulation, vibration plus electrical stimulation, a visual cue plus electrical stimulation and electrical stimulation by itself. The treatments were randomly applied to each animal over fi ve consecutive trials. A control treatment in which no cues were applied was used to establish a basal behavioural pattern. A trial was considered completed after each animal had been retained behind the cue barrier for at least 60 sec. All cues and electrical stimulation were manually applied from a laptop located on a portable 3.5 m tower located immediately outside the alley. The electric stimulation consisted of 1.0 Kv of electricity. Electric stimulation, sound and vibration along with the Global Position System (GPS) hardware to autonomously record the animal’s path within the alley were recorded every second.

Preface : sustainable urban and regional infrastructure development : technologies, applications and management

The concept of ‘sustainability’ has been pushed to the forefront of policy-making and politics as the world wakes up to the impacts of climate change and the effects of the modern urban lifestyle. Climate change has emerged to be one of the biggest challenges faced by our planet today, threatening both built and natural systems with long term consequences which may be irreversible. While there is a vast literature in the market on sustainable cities and urban development, there is currently none that bring together the vital issues of urban and regional development, and the planning, management and implementation of sustainable infrastructure. Large scale infrastructure plays an important part in modern society by not only promoting economic growth, but also by acting as a key indicator for it. More importantly, it supplies municipal/local amenity and services: water, electricity, social and communication facilities, waste removal, transport of people and goods, as well as numerous other services. For the most part, infrastructure has been built by teams lead by engineers who are more concerned about functionality than the concept of sustainability. However, it has been widely stated that current practices and lifestyle cannot continue if we are to leave a healthy living planet to not only the next generation, but also to the generations beyond. Therefore, in order to be sustainable, there are drastic measures that need to be taken. Current single purpose and design infrastructures that are open looped are not sustainable; they are too resource intensive, consume too much energy and support the consumption of natural resources at a rate that will exhaust their supply. Because of this, it is vital that modern society, policy-makers, developers, engineers and planners become pioneers in introducing and incorporating sustainable features into urban and regional infrastructure.

Quantitative assessment of fault tolerant precision timing for electricity substations

Advanced substation applications, such as synchrophasors and IEC 61850-9-2 sampled value process buses, depend upon highly accurate synchronizing signals for correct operation. The IEEE 1588 Precision Timing Protocol (PTP) is the recommended means of providing precise timing for future substations. This paper presents a quantitative assessment of PTP reliability using Fault Tree Analysis. Two network topologies are proposed that use grandmaster clocks with dual network connections and take advantage of the Best Master Clock Algorithm (BMCA) from IEEE 1588. The cross-connected grandmaster topology doubles reliability, and the addition of a shared third grandmaster gives a nine-fold improvement over duplicated grandmasters. The performance of BMCA mediated handover of the grandmaster role during contingencies in the timing system was evaluated experimentally. The 1 µs performance requirement of sampled values and synchrophasors are met, even during network or GPS antenna outages. Slave clocks are shown to synchronize to the backup grandmaster in response to degraded performance or loss of the main grandmaster. Slave disturbances are less than 350 ns provided the grandmaster reference clocks are not offset from one another. A clear understanding of PTP reliability and the factors that affect availability will encourage the adoption of PTP for substation time synchronization.

Assessment of real-time networks and timing for process bus applications

Widespread adoption by electricity utilities of Non-Conventional Instrument Transformers, such as optical or capacitive transducers, has been limited due to the lack of a standardised interface and multi-vendor interoperability. Low power analogue interfaces are being replaced by IEC 61850 9 2 and IEC 61869 9 digital interfaces that use Ethernet networks for communication. These ‘process bus’ connections achieve significant cost savings by simplifying connections between switchyard and control rooms; however the in-service performance when these standards are employed is largely unknown. The performance of real-time Ethernet networks and time synchronisation was assessed using a scale model of a substation automation system. The test bed was constructed from commercially available timing and protection equipment supplied by a range of vendors. Test protocols have been developed to thoroughly evaluate the performance of Ethernet networks and network based time synchronisation. The suitability of IEEE Std 1588 Precision Time Protocol (PTP) as a synchronising system for sampled values was tested in the steady state and under transient conditions. Similarly, the performance of hardened Ethernet switches designed for substation use was assessed under a range of network operating conditions. This paper presents test methods that use a precision Ethernet capture card to accurately measure PTP and network performance. These methods can be used for product selection and to assess ongoing system performance as substations age. Key findings on the behaviour of multi-function process bus networks are presented. System level tests were performed using a Real Time Digital Simulator and transformer protection relay with sampled value and Generic Object Oriented Substation Events (GOOSE) capability. These include the interactions between sampled values, PTP and GOOSE messages. Our research has demonstrated that several protocols can be used on a shared process bus, even with very high network loads. This should provide confidence that this technology is suitable for transmission substations.

The impact of Cool Roof applications on energy performance : results from Australian sub-tropical and tropical field studies

Cool roof coatings are identified by their solar reflectance index. They have been reported to have multiple benefits, the extent of which are strongly dependent on the peculiarities of the local climate, building stock and electricity network. This paper presents measured and simulated data from residential, educational and commercial buildings involved in recent field trials in Australia. The purpose of the field trials was to evaluate the impact of such coatings on electricity demand and load and to assess their potential application to improve comfort whilst avoiding the need for air conditioners. Measured reductions in temperature, power (kW) and energy (kWh) were used to develop a predictive model that correlates ambient temperature distribution profiles, building demand reduction profiles and electricity network peak demand times. Combined with simulated data, the study indicates the types of buildings that could be targeted in Demand Management programs for the mutual benefit of electricity networks and building occupants.