Deconstructing national leadership: Politicians’ accounts of electoral success and failure in the Irish Lisbon Treaty referenda

The Self Categorization approach to national leadership proposes that leaders rhetorically construct national identity as essentialized and inevitable in order to consensualize and mobilize the population. In contrast, discursive studies have demonstrated how national politicians flexibly construct the nation to manage their own accountability in local interactions, though this in turn has neglected broader leadership processes. The present paper brings both approaches together to examine how and when national politicians construct versions of national identity in order to account for their failure as well as success in mobilizing the electorate. Eight semi-structured conversational style interviews were conducted with a strategic sample of eight leading Irish politicians on the subject of the 2008/2009 Irish Lisbon Treaty referenda. Using a Critical Discourse Psychology approach, the hegemonic repertoire of the ‘settled will’
of the informed and consensualized Irish nation was identified across all interviews. Politicians either endorsed the ‘settled will’ repertoire as evidence of their successful leadership, or rejected the repertoire by denying the rationality or unity of the populace to account for their failure. Our results suggest national identity is only constructed as essentialized and inevitable to the extent that it serves a strategic political purpose.

The Role of Corruption in Explaining the Electoral Success of New Political Parties in Central and Eastern Europe

More than 20 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the electoral volatility in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is still remarkably high. A considerable part of the volatility derives from the votes for new political parties, since they are very often on the winning side of elections. This paper examines corruption as potential determinant of their electoral success. It argues that the effect of corruption is twofold: On the onehand, the historically-grown corruption level reduces the electoral success of new political parties due to strong clientelist structures that bind the electorate to the established parties. On the other hand, an increase of the perceived corruption above the traditional corruption level leads to a loss of trust in the political elite and therefore boosts the electoral success of new competitors. A statistical analysis of all democratic elections in CEE between 1996 and 2011 confirms these two counteracting effects.

The electoral success of the Svoboda Party - the consequences for Ukrainian politics. OSW Commentary No. 97, 2012-11-26

The All-Ukrainian Association ‘Svoboda’ scored an unexpected success in the parliamentary elections, winning support from over 10% of the voters and entering the select group of Ukrainian parliamentary parties which operate at a national level. Svoboda’s manifesto is nationalist and anti-liberal, in both economic and political aspects. It is in fact the anti-liberal component of this party’s manifesto which it can thank for achieving such a big electoral success. The faction formed by Svoboda’s 37 representatives in the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) will have a small impact on legislative work, but their activity may add further to the brutalisation of parliamentary life. Furthermore, Svoboda will attempt to make other opposition groupings adopt a more radical approach, which may trigger the disintegration of the United Opposition Baktivshchyna. A new wave of public protests is likely to emerge in Ukraine in the coming months. Therefore, it can be expected that Svoboda will make efforts to join in or even incite them, in order to promote its social and nationalist messages. This may contribute to increasing the popularity of nationalist ideas and to a further radicalisation of sentiments in Ukraine.

Avenues to success : electoral strategies and ambition in the Brazilian chamber of deputies

In the second consecutive election for the Brazilian Chamber ofDeputies, the majority of incumbents (75% in 1998 and again 75% in 2002) decided to run for reelection and at least 70% ofthem in both elections were successful, suggesting thus it would be incorrect to ignore static ambition as the main target of Brazilian legislators. It also raises doubts about the assertion that incumbents use their posts to pursue their post-Iegislative careers. However, this number also suggests that not alIlegislators seek reelection, indicating that it is also incorrect to assume alI of them are driven by similar motivations. In their attempts at career survival, incumbents may also run for higher offices (Senator, Governor, Vicegovernor). A minority still, may run for state leveI offices (regressive ambition).Given that static and progressive ambition are the two main types of career choice in Brazil, we focus on the factors that influence the career decision and electoral success of those who choose to run for reelection and those who choose to run for higher-level offices, i.e. senator and governor. We use data recently colIected from the 2002 elections.

Electoral Systems and Ethnic Conciliation: A Structured, Focused Analysis of Vote-Pooling in Northern Ireland Elections 1998-2011

This research project examines the role of electoral system rules in affecting the extent of conciliatory behavior and cross-ethnic coalition making in Northern Ireland. It focuses on the role of the Single Transferable Vote (STV) electoral system in shaping party and voter incentives in a post-conflict divided society. The research uses a structured, focused comparison of the four electoral cycles since the Belfast Agreement of 1998. This enables a systematic examination of each electoral cycle using a common set of criteria focused on conciliation and cross-ethnic coalition making. Whilst preference voting is assumed to benefit moderate candidates, in Northern Ireland centrist and multi-ethnic parties outside of the dominant ethnic communities have received little electoral success. In Northern Ireland the primary effect of STV has not been to encourage inter-communal voting but to facilitate intra-community and intra-party moderation. STV has encouraged the moderation of the historically extreme political parties in each of the ethnic bloc. Patterns across electoral cycles suggest that party elites from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Fein have moderated their policy positions due to the electoral system rules. Therefore they have pursued lower-preference votes from within their ethnic bloc but in doing so have marginalized parties of a multi-ethnic or non-ethnic orientation.

The Electoral Rise of Populist Radical Right Parties in Europe: Ideological Parameters and Social Motivations

Populist radical right parties have become major political actors in Europe. This paper analyses the path and the different phases that have led them from the fringes of public debate to their present signifi cance, which is based on their capacity to attract electoral support and infl uence the political agendas in their respective countries. Besides, an analysis of the core ideological beliefs of these parties, and of the topics on which their mobilization capacity rests, is provided, as well as of the type of voters that are attracted by them. Finally, the authors discuss the meaning and impact of the growing popularity of the ideas and proposals put forward by the populist radical right parties.

Euroscepticism in the Netherlands: Stirrings of Dissent

Recent years have seen the emergence of a markedly more critical discourse in the Netherlands as regards European integration. Concerns over both the size of the net national contribution to the European Union budget and the implications for the country of EU enlargement have given rise to high-profile public debates. An explicitly articulated discourse of national interest, centred on but not limited to the Liberal VVD, has become a staple of political debate. At the same time, movements with clearly Eurosceptic agendas (the Pim Fortuyn List and the Socialist Party) have enjoyed unparalleled levels of electoral success. Although not of significant electoral salience, 'Europe' has nevertheless emerged as an issue in Dutch politics. The present article examines these stirrings of dissent in an EU member state which had long been regarded as one of the most enthusiastic supporters of further integration.

Green prospects in Greece

The radical left-wing Syriza and the Green party Ecologists Greens/Oikologoi Prasinoi (EG) have been seen as representatives of the left-libertarian/new politics party families in Greece. These type of parties are marked by a commitment to new politics issues such as gender and racial equality, peace and ecology. In countries where two party formations of this kind are in competition to attract a very similar clientele and one of them is electorally significant, it is unlikely for the other to achieve autonomous electoral success. This is a well-known fact that has penetrated discussions on the strategic orientation of both parties since their first electoral participation in 2004 (only European parliament elections for EG).

Dup discourses on violence and their impact on the northern ireland peace process

This paper analyses the Democratic Unionist Party's (DUP) discourses about paramilitary violence in Northern Ireland. Drawing on narrative analysis of DUP discourses reported in Northern Ireland's largest unionist newspaper, the News Letter (1998-2006), it explores the relationship between the party's identity, its discourses about republican and loyalist paramilitaries, and the impact of these words on the DUP's electoral success and on the peace process. The paper argues that these discourses may haunt the progress of peace-building, not least because the DUP will find it hard to disentangle itself from a history of scepticism and nay-saying even as it takes a leading role in a devolved Executive designed by an Agreement it longscorned.

Preaching to the Choir? An Analysis of DUP Discourses about the Northern Ireland Peace Process

This article analyses the Democratic Unionist Party's (DUP) discursive responses to the Northern Ireland peace process. Drawing on narrative analysis of DUP discourses in the Belfast News Letter (1998–2005), it argues that the party has articulated five themes: the de‐legitimisation of David Trimble and the Ulster Unionist Party, the immorality of the peace process, the security threat, the victimisation of Protestants, and the ‘renegotiation’ of the Belfast Agreement. These discourses are analysed in light of a framework for understanding the relationship between the party's public discourses and the political strategies that have allowed for its electoral success. The framework includes the relationship between discourses, agenda‐setting in the media, ‘the politics of support’, and ‘the politics of power’. It considers how the DUP's discourses may impact on its relationships with nationalists and unionists. However, efforts by the DUP to communicate with the unionist grassroots may allow it to minimise alienation, thus contributing to a space in which principles such as power‐sharing can become bedded down.

Associative Issue Ownership as a Determinant of Voters' Campaign Attention

Campaigns raise public interest in politics and allow parties to convey their messages to voters. However, voters' exposure and attention during campaigns are biased towards parties and candidates they like. This hinders parties' ability to reach new voters. This paper theorises and empirically tests a simple way in which parties can break partisan selective attention: owning an issue. When parties own issues that are important for a voter, that voter is more likely to notice them. Using survey data collected prior to the 2009 Belgian regional elections it is shown that this effect exists independent of partisan preferences and while controlling for the absolute visibility of a party in the media. This indicates that issue ownership has an independent impact on voters' attention to campaigns. This finding shows that owning salient issues yields (potential) advantages for parties, since getting noticed is a prerequisite for conveying electoral messages and increasing electoral success.

The green movement in Canada

The green movement has evolved over the last twenty years from various social, peace and ecology activist organizations into direct political participation in parliamentary institutions through the Green Party. Although there is no definable theory of green politics, the culmination of interacting social movements as well as feminist, decentralist and in many cases, left wing political ideology, has produced a specific kind of political direction for the Greens internationally. As a result of the increased a ttention and awareness given to ecological issues , combined with the heightened evidence of large scale environmental deterioration, public attitudes and government decisions on development and natural resource management have been significantly altered. The Green Party of Canada is still r elatively young in comparison to its European counterparts, although ecologica l awareness and interest in t he green movement in Canada is strong, as reflected not only in support on a political level for the Canadian Greens I but for environmental issues and a ctivism in general. For this reason it s important to determine whether or not the Green Party is a significant aspect of the Canadian green movement, and if in fact its representation is necessary as an active participant in the Canadian political system . The Green Party of Canada, as a vital aspect of the Canadian green movement, and its connection to international green organizations can be examined primarily through the examp l es of both the Canadian Greens and the Green party of Ontario , by using original party documents and literature, information gained through Green party meetings and discussions with members, and commentary by Green theorists where app licable. As well, the influence on the Canadian green movement by the German Green Party is outlined , again mainly through party literature, documents and critiques of the party's experiences. This study reveals several existing and potential problems fo r t he Green Party in Canada, and the political fut ure of the Canadian green movement in general. Some, such as the real i ties of the Canadian political system are external to the movement, and may be overcome with adjustments in goals and methods, and a realization of the changing attitude towards environmental issues in a political context . On the other hand, internal party disfunctions in both organization and direction, caused mainly by the indefinite parameters of green ideology, threaten to exploit the already problematic aspects evident in t he Green Party . Aside from its somewhat slow beginnings, the Green Party in Canada has developed into a strong grassroots social movement, not however from its political visibility but from the steady growth in the popul ari ty of ecological pol i t ics in Canada. Due to the seeming enormity of the obstacles facing the Greens in their effort 4 to achieve electoral success, it is doubtful that Parliamentary representation will be achieved without a major re-orientation of party organization and methods. UI timately the strength of the Green Party in Canada will be based upon its ability to survive as a significant movement, and its willingness to continue to challenge political thought and practice.

The origins of federal public enterprises in Canada: an appraisal of two approaches

The Green Party of Canada, as a vital aspect of the Canadian green movement, and its connection to international green organizations can be examined primarily through the examp l es of both the Canadian Greens and the Green party of Ontario , by using original party documents and literature, information gained through Green party meetings and discussions with members, and commentary by Green theorists where app licable. As well, the influence on the Canadian green movement by the German Green Party is out lined , again mainly through party literature, documents and critiques of the party's experiences. This study reveals several existing and potential problems fo r t he Green Party in Canada, and the political fut ure of the Canadian green movement in general. Some, such as the real i ties of the Canadian political system are external to the movement, and may be overcome with adjustments in goals and methods, and a realization of the changing attitude towards environmental issues in a political context . On the other hand, internal party disfunctions in both organization and direction, caused mainly by the indefinite parameters of green ideology, threaten to expl oi t t he al ready problematic aspects evident in t he Green Party . Aside from its somewhat slow beginnings, the Green Party in Canada has developed into a strong grassroots social movement, not however from its political visibility but from the steady growth in the popul ari ty of ecological pol i t ics in Canada . Due to the seeming enormity of the obstacles facing the Greens in their effort 4 to achieve electoral success, it is doubtful that Parliamentary representation will be achieved without a major re-orientation of party organization and methods. UI timately the strength of the Green Party in Canada will be based upon its ability to survive as a significant movement, and its willingness to continue to challenge political thought and practice.

El Uribismo, un fenómeno político de cuatro dimensiones

El trabajo se propone explicar cómo el uribismo tuvo éxito político y electoral a pesar de las contradicciones y tensiones entre sus postulados y sus prácticas, estableciendo la esencia, propiedades y elementos estructurales del fenómeno político.

Incumbency Reconsidered: Prospects, Strategic Entry, and Incumbent Quality in U.S. House Elections

Efforts to estimate the magnitude of the incumbency effect in U.S. House elections and assess its political meaning have been complicated by two omitted-variables problems. First, in the absence of an adequate measure of incumbent prospects, estimates of the magnitude of the incumbency effect fail to control for selection effects associated with the decision incumbents make about whether to run for reelection. Strategic incumbents enter races they think they can win and withdraw when they expect to lose. The consequence is an upward bias in estimates of incumbents’ electoral advantages. Second, the normative implications of high reelection rates cannot be assessed without measuring incumbent quality, since a possible explanation for their electoral success is that incumbents are of high quality and doing a good job. We propose a strategy for measuring incumbent prospects and quality, demonstrate the strategic nature of incumbent and challenger entry, re-estimate the incumbency effect, and show that incumbent quality has an impact on electoral outcomes. Our conclusion is that incumbents’ advantages in House elections have been over estimated while the positive basis of incumbent safety is typically under appreciated.