"Out of sync": The breakdown of economic sentiment cycles in the E.U.

We present empirical evidence about the properties of economic sentiment cycle synchronization for Germany, France and the UK and compare them with the `crisis' countries Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece. Instead of using output data we prefer to focus on the economic sentiment indicator (ESI), a forward-looking, survey-based variable consistently available from 1985. The cyclical nature of the ESI allows us to analyze the presence or not of synchronicity among country pairs before and after the onset of the financial crisis. Our results show that ESI movements were mostly synchronous before 2008 but they exhibit a breakdown after 2008, with this feature being more prominent in Greece. We also find that, after the political manoeuvring of the past two years, a cycle re-integration or re-synchronization is on the way. An analysis of the evolution of the synchronicity measures indicates that they can potentially be used to identify sudden phase breaks in ESI co-movement and they can offer a signal as to when the EU economies are getting “in” or “out of sync”.

Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe

This paper shows the extraordinary capacity of yield spreads to anticipate consumption growth as proxy by the Economic Sentiment Indicator elaborated by the European Commission in order to predict turning points in business cycles. This new evidence complements the well known results regarding the usefulness of the slope of the term structure of interest rates to predict real economic conditions and, in particular, recessions by using a direct measure of expectations. A linear combination of European yield spreads explains a surprising 93.7% of the variability of the Economic Sentiment Indicator. Yield spreads seem to be a key determinant of consumer confidence in Europe.

Estimating Brazilian Monthly GDP: a State-Space Approach

This paper has several original contributions. The first is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series- all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we finally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Estimating brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

This paper has several original contributions. The rst is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we nally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

This paper has several original contributions. The rst is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we nally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil- the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, whichmay not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

The first contribution of this paper is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). The second contribution, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), is to propose and test a myriad of inter-polation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we finally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. The third contribution is to illustrate, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Avaliação energética econômica do agroecossistema algodão: uma abordagem entre sistemas familiares de produção do Paraguai e do Brasil

The objective of this work was to evaluate the energy and economic efficiency indexes per unit of cotton agro-ecosystem area in family production systems of Paraguay and Brazil; and, to establish a relationship between the energy and economic. Typologies presented by the Program to Support Small Cotton Holdings (Paraguay), and by the National Program for Strengthening Family Agriculture (Brazil). Family systems of the two countries were identified; these are located from Paraguay (San Juan–CA) and from Brazil (Leme–SP). To construct the energy expenditure structure of the cotton agro-ecosystem, as well as to assess the economic efficiency, the mean values obtained were considered, when they presented similarities in production systems and they were within the typology proposed in this study. From the technical itinerary observed the Paraguayan agro-ecosystem depended (fossil fuel 56.76%) and industrial source (35.99%). Thus, the energy balance of the agricultural stage was established, which attained a value of 17,740.69 MJ ha-1; an energy efficiency of 5.28, and a cultural efficiency of 3.04. The Brazilian agro-ecosystem depended on energy from industrial source (insecticides 39.82%) and from fossil fuel (33.59%); it reached an energy balance of 19,547.88 MJ ha-1; an energy efficiency of 2.12, and a cultural efficiency index of 0.71. In the economic and energy indicator ratio, with regard to the months referring to the harvest time, that is to say, March, April, and May, the maximum economic efficiency indicator of paraguay was attained in the month of May (1,00), and from Brazil in the month of May (1,71). Both production systems analyzed were presented efficient, however, dependent of external circumstances and non-renewable energy sources.

Valiação energética e econômica do agroecossistema algodão: uma abordagem entre sistemas familiares de produção do Paraguai e Brasil

The objective of this work was to evaluate the energy and economic efficiency indexes per unit of cotton agro-ecosystem area in family production systems of Paraguay and Brazil; and, to establish a relationship between the energy and economic. Typologies presented by the Program to Support Small Cotton Holdings (Paraguay), and by the National Program for Strengthening Family Agriculture (Brazil). Family systems of the two countries were identified; these are located from Paraguay (San Juan–CA) and from Brazil (Leme–SP). To construct the energy expenditure structure of the cotton agro-ecosystem, as well as to assess the economic efficiency, the mean values obtained were considered, when they presented similarities in production systems and they were within the typology proposed in this study. From the technical itinerary observed the Paraguayan agro-ecosystem depended (fossil fuel 56.76%) and industrial source (35.99%). Thus, the energy balance of the agricultural stage was established, which attained a value of 17,740.69 MJ ha-1; an energy efficiency of 5.28, and a cultural efficiency of 3.04. The Brazilian agro-ecosystem depended on energy from industrial source (insecticides 39.82%) and from fossil fuel (33.59%); it reached an energy balance of 19,547.88 MJ ha-1; an energy efficiency of 2.12, and a cultural efficiency index of 0.71. In the economic and energy indicator ratio, with regard to the months referring to the harvest time, that is to say, March, April, and May, the maximum economic efficiency indicator of paraguay was attained in the month of May (1,00), and from Brazil in the month of May (1,71). Both production systems analyzed were presented efficient, however, dependent of external circumstances and non-renewable energy sources.

Economicidade e eficiência temporal estudo de caso no Instituto Federal de Goiás

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade UnB Planaltina, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Gestão Pública, Mestrado Profissional em Gestão Pública, 2016.

Economic indicator comparisons of international real estate sectors using the OECD input-output database

With its growing share in national economies, the real estate sector has been considered a vital contributor of economic development. Research efforts are needed in order to gain a better comprehension of the national specificities of the real estate sector and to identify its role in economic development. Due to limited comparable data, the economic indicators of real estate sectors are hard to compare between different countries. This paper aims to explore the quantitative interdependence amongst the real estate sector and other industries in developed economies using input-output analysis, and to investigate their significant linkages. Based on the recently published Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) input-output database at constant prices, the analysis focuses on the real estate's escalating role in terms ofshares in gross output, value added and gross national product. With emphasis on the relative role of manufacturing, construction and services inputs, this paper also highlights the strengths of the push and pull of the real estate sector.

Dot.Com rise as an indicator of business growth and economic progress : a retrospective view on telecom and banking sectors in Australia and India

In the year 2000, businesses in banking and telecom sectors worldwide re-engineered their value chain by extending their services by adapting ebusiness through dot.com launches. Subsequently, their validity became questionable with the spate of dot.com crashes and the IT stock meltdown. This book takes a retrospective view, indicating that e-business, as measured by dot.com growth trends, was a positive indicator for business growth in the sector and overall economic growth as it stimulated the respective economies. The book details an inductive analysis that studied if dot.com floats suggested any positive market capitalisation (broadly regarded as a measure of profitability) for the organisations, within two sectors, in two economies. In addition, there is detailed content analysis of global business trends, drivers, theories, sector/economy perspectives, achieved progress and instrumental cases. The book will be a view in retrospect for economists, business analysts, students of ebusiness and management (particularly MBA); academics and researchers.

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We establish that our index performs better than other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We establish that our index performs better than other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.