Signal processing of microstructure profiles: integrating turbulent spatial scales in aquatic ecological modeling

The main objective of this thesis was the integration of microstructure information in synoptic descriptors of turbulence, that reflects the mixing processes. Turbulent patches are intermittent in space and time, but they represent the dominant process for mixing. In this work, the properties of turbulent patches were considered the potential input for integrating the physical microscale measurements. The development of a method for integrating the properties of the turbulent patches required solving three main questions: a) how can we detect the turbulent patches from he microstructure measurements?; b) which are the most relevant properties of the turbulent patches?; and ) once an interval of time has been selected, what kind of synoptic parameters could better reflect the occurrence and properties of the turbulent patches? The answers to these questions were the final specific objectives of this thesis.

Ecological modeling and pest population management: a possible and necessary connection in a changing world

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Population dynamics, life stage and ecological modeling in Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

ECOLOGICAL MODELING OF TALITROIDES TOPITOTUM (CRUSTACEA: AMPHIPODA)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

eHabitat, a multi-purpose Web Processing Service for ecological modeling

The number of interoperable research infrastructures has increased significantly with the growing awareness of the efforts made by the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). One of the Societal Benefit Areas (SBA) that is benefiting most from GEOSS is biodiversity, given the costs of monitoring the environment and managing complex information, from space observations to species records including their genetic characteristics. But GEOSS goes beyond simple data sharing to encourage the publishing and combination of models, an approach which can ease the handling of complex multi-disciplinary questions. It is the purpose of this paper to illustrate these concepts by presenting eHabitat, a basic Web Processing Service (WPS) for computing the likelihood of finding ecosystems with equal properties to those specified by a user. When chained with other services providing data on climate change, eHabitat can be used for ecological forecasting and becomes a useful tool for decision-makers assessing different strategies when selecting new areas to protect. eHabitat can use virtually any kind of thematic data that can be considered as useful when defining ecosystems and their future persistence under different climatic or development scenarios. The paper will present the architecture and illustrate the concepts through case studies which forecast the impact of climate change on protected areas or on the ecological niche of an African bird.

Integrated Ecological Modeling and Decision Analysis Within the Everglades Landscape

Planning for complex ecosystem restoration projects involves integrating ecological modeling with analysis of performance trade-offs among restoration alternatives. The authors used the Everglades Landscape Model and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to explore the effect of simulated ecosystem performance, risk preferences, and criteria weights on the ranking of three alternatives to restoring overland sheet flow in the Everglades. The ecological model outputs included both hydrologic and water quality criteria. Results were scored in the decision analysis framework, highlighting the trade-offs between hydrologic restoration and water quality constraints. Given equal weighting of performance measures, the alternative with more homogenous sheet flow was preferred over other alternatives, despite evidence of some localized eutrophication risk.

Historical biogeography and conservation of the golden-striped salamander (Chioglossa lusitanica) in northwestern Iberia: integrating ecological, phenotypic and phylogeographic data

The golden-striped salamander (Chioglossa lusitanica) is an endemic species inhabiting stream-side habitats in mountainous areas in the northwestern Iberian Peninsula. This salamandrid is listed in the IUCN Red Data Book as a threatened species. The combination of bioclimatic modeling of the species distribution and multivariate analysis of genetic and phenotypic data strengthens previous hypotheses concerning the historical biogeography of C. lusitanica: the Pleistocene subdivision of the species' range and a process of postglacial recolonization. Discrepancies between bioclimatic modeling predictions and the present-day distribution suggest that the species may still be expanding its range northwards. We propose the identification of two distinct units for the conservation of the species and suggest that this information should be taken into account in defining key areas for conservation in the Iberian Peninsula.

The dimensionality of ecological networks

How many dimensions (trait-axes) are required to predict whether two species interact? This unanswered question originated with the idea of ecological niches, and yet bears relevance today for understanding what determines network structure. Here, we analyse a set of 200 ecological networks, including food webs, antagonistic and mutualistic networks, and find that the number of dimensions needed to completely explain all interactions is small (< 10), with model selection favouring less than five. Using 18 high-quality webs including several species traits, we identify which traits contribute the most to explaining network structure. We show that accounting for a few traits dramatically improves our understanding of the structure of ecological networks. Matching traits for resources and consumers, for example, fruit size and bill gape, are the most successful combinations. These results link ecologically important species attributes to large-scale community structure. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene

An important statistical development of the last 30 years has been the advance in regression analysis provided by generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs). Here we introduce a series of papers prepared within the framework of an international workshop entitled: Advances in GLMs/GAMs modeling: from species distribution to environmental management, held in Riederalp, Switzerland, 6-11 August 2001.We first discuss some general uses of statistical models in ecology, as well as provide a short review of several key examples of the use of GLMs and GAMs in ecological modeling efforts. We next present an overview of GLMs and GAMs, and discuss some of their related statistics used for predictor selection, model diagnostics, and evaluation. Included is a discussion of several new approaches applicable to GLMs and GAMs, such as ridge regression, an alternative to stepwise selection of predictors, and methods for the identification of interactions by a combined use of regression trees and several other approaches. We close with an overview of the papers and how we feel they advance our understanding of their application to ecological modeling.

Patrons de distribution des crustacés planctoniques dans le fleuve Saint-Laurent

La recherche porte sur les patrons de distribution longitudinale (amont-aval) et transversale (rive nord - rive sud) des communautés de crustacés planctoniques qui ont été analysés le long du fleuve Saint-Laurent entre le lac Saint-François et la zone de transition estuarienne, à deux hydropériodes en mai (crue) et en août (étiage). Les données zooplanctoniques et environnementales ont été récoltées à 52 stations réparties sur 16 transects transversaux en 2006. Au chapitre 1, nous présentons les principaux modèles écosystémiques en rivière, une synthèse des facteurs influençant le zooplancton en rivières et les objectifs et hypothèses de recherche. Au chapitre 2, nous décrivons la structure des communautés de zooplancton dans trois zones biogéographiques du fleuve et 6 habitats longitudinaux, ainsi que les relations entre la structure du zooplancton et la distribution spatiale des masses d’eau et les variables environnementales. Au chapitre 3, nous réalisons une partition de la variation des variables spatiales AEM (basées sur la distribution des masses d’eau) et des variables environnementales pour évaluer quelle part de la variation du zooplancton est expliquée par les processus hydrologiques (variables AEM) et les conditions locales (facteurs environnementaux). Le gradient salinité-conductivité relié à la discontinuité fleuve-estuaire a déterminé la distribution à grande échelle du zooplancton. Dans les zones fluviales, la distribution du zooplancton est davantage influencée par la distribution des masses d’eau que par les facteurs environnementaux locaux. La distribution des masses d’eau explique une plus grande partie de la variation dans la distribution du zooplancton en août qu’en mai.

O que controla o crescimento do Fitoplâncton em lagoas costeiras tropicais? um modelo para a lagoa de Extremoz (RN)

The phytoplankton growth is dependent of several abiotic (nutrients, temperature) and biotic (predation by zooplankton) variables. In this work, a mathematical model was developed in Stella software to understand the planktonic dynamics of Extremoz Lagoon (RN) and to simulate scenarios of different environmental conditions. Data were collected monthly at two points of the lagoon. The state variables are phytoplankton and zooplankton and forcing variables are nitrogen, phosphorus and temperature. The results show that: a) the model are well coupled, especially when some constants assume different values; b) simulated nutrient concentrations reduction decreases phytoplankton biomass, but the increase of nutrients does not stimulate the growth; c) changes in the temperature does not change the phytoplankton biomass; d) changes in zooplankton biomass affect directly and reduces the phytoplankton, indicating a topdown control mechanism; e) changes in the nutrient concentration modified the biomass of zooplankton suggesting a rapid flow of energy between nutrients, phytoplankton and zooplankton and a ecosystem likely arranged in an inverted pyramid (higher concentration of zooplankton than phytoplankton)

Predicting the potential distribution of the alien invasive American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) in Brazil

The non-native invasive anuran Lithobates catesbeianus is presently distributed in Brazil, especially in the Atlantic Rainforest biodiversity hotspot. Here, we use a maximum entropy ecological niche modeling algorithm (i) to model the North American native geographic distribution of this species and (ii) to project that model onto the whole of Brazil. After applying a threshold value that balances commission and omission errors, the projection results suggested high probabilities of occurrence mostly in southern and southeastern Brazil. We also present the first report on the species known distribution in Brazil, showing good agreement with model predictions. If the predictive map is interpreted as depicting invasiveness potential of L. catesbeianus, strategies to prevent further invasion in Brazil should be focused especially in the Atlantic Rainforest biodiversity hotspot.

Trait contributions to fish community assembly emerge from trophic interactions in an individual-based model

Community ecology seeks to understand and predict the characteristics of communities that can develop under different environmental conditions, but most theory has been built on analytical models that are limited in the diversity of species traits that can be considered simultaneously. We address that limitation with an individual-based model to simulate assembly of fish communities characterized by life history and trophic interactions with multiple physiological tradeoffs as constraints on species performance. Simulation experiments were carried out to evaluate the distribution of 6 life history and 4 feeding traits along gradients of resource productivity and prey accessibility. These experiments revealed that traits differ greatly in importance for species sorting along the gradients. Body growth rate emerged as a key factor distinguishing community types and defining patterns of community stability and coexistence, followed by egg size and maximum body size. Dominance by fast-growing, relatively large, and fecund species occurred more frequently in cases where functional responses were saturated (i.e. high productivity and/or prey accessibility). Such dominance was associated with large biomass fluctuations and priority effects, which prevented richness from increasing with productivity and may have limited selection on secondary traits, such as spawning strategies and relative size at maturation. Our results illustrate that the distribution of species traits and the consequences for community dynamics are intimately linked and strictly dependent on how the benefits and costs of these traits are balanced across different conditions. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Desenvolvimento e aplicação de modelos matemáticos para o controle da Diaphorina citri via manejo integrado e estudo da influência da temperatura sobre a dinâmica populacional de Talitroides topitotum

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Análise da paisagem para o planejamento e a gestão da conservação da Mata Atlântica

Landscape is dynamic, having complex nature, with tangible and intangible dimensions, presenting a continuous evolution process. The aim of this research were based on the identification and classification of landscapes in units and subunits, from the ownership by individuals; the development of a methodology to assist in the planning and management, conciliating conservation of natural areas with anthropic activities; and, from the information gathered, evaluate the different social groups aiming to design a landscape from the sustainable development perspective; thus better understanding both cultural and forest fragmentation processes, in the city of Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais. The research analyzed the current landscape and its historical evolution, distinguishing between material and immaterial dimensions. Information was raised from field trips, soil types, relief, slope, drainage, conservation units, administrative zoning, urban areas, natural resources, economy, tax raising, transport and building infrastructure, satellite images, types of management applied to the preservation or conservation of forests and fields, and semi-structured interviews with the various actors that modify and transform the territory, thus making a balance between the built landscape and the demands of the society and ecosystems. Results were composed by a map of land use in 2011; a map of landscape units and their subunits, with their appropriate definitions; a map with five levels of activities intensity, with their respective descriptions; and raising barriers to improving the welfare of the actors and the integrity of ecosystems. The number of generated ecosystem services are difficult to measure, but its benefits are useful for everyone. The physical changes are a reflection of the economy, which caused environmental impacts, mainly related to mining activities, tourism, agriculture and conservation of natural areas, all requiring ideally a shared management. In this sense, the landscape needs a management to create sustainable alternatives to anthropic activities. The dynamics of the landscape has been shaped by a slow evolution, set by mining activities due to the high financial revenues, there were areas of revegetation after clearcuts in the past, and now tourism lacks structure. The city has great potential for development projects with payments for environmental services, however, gaps for shared management exists.