Historical data reveal power-law dispersal patterns of invasive aquatic species.

Understanding how invasive species spread is of particular concern in the current era of globalisation and rapid environmental change. The occurrence of super-diffusive movements within the context of Lévy flights has been discussed with respect to particle physics, human movements, microzooplankton, disease spread in global epidemiology and animal foraging behaviour. Super-diffusive movements provide a theoretical explanation for the rapid spread of organisms and disease, but their applicability to empirical data on the historic spread of organisms has rarely been tested. This study focuses on the role of long-distance dispersal in the invasion dynamics of aquatic invasive species across three contrasting areas and spatial scales: open ocean (north-east Atlantic), enclosed sea (Mediterranean) and an island environment (Ireland). Study species included five freshwater plant species, Azolla filiculoides, Elodea canadensis, Lagarosiphon major, Elodea nuttallii and Lemna minuta; and ten species of marine algae, Asparagopsis armata, Antithamnionella elegans, Antithamnionella ternifolia, Codium fragile, Colpomenia peregrina, Caulerpa taxifolia, Dasysiphonia sp., Sargassum muticum, Undaria pinnatifida and Womersleyella setacea. A simulation model is constructed to show the validity of using historical data to reconstruct dispersal kernels. Lévy movement patterns similar to those previously observed in humans and wild animals are evident in the re-constructed dispersal pattern of invasive aquatic species. Such patterns may be widespread among invasive species and could be exacerbated by further development of trade networks, human travel and environmental change. These findings have implications for our ability to predict and manage future invasions, and improve our understanding of the potential for spread of organisms including infectious diseases, plant pests and genetically modified organisms.

Differential drift and parasitism in invading and native Gammarus spp. (Crustacea : Amphipoda)

Invading and native species often interact directly, such as by predation, producing patterns of exclusion and coexistence. Less direct factors, such as interactions with the broader abiotic and biotic environment, may also contribute to such patterns, but these have received less recognition. In Northern Ireland, the North American Gammarus tigrinus has invaded freshwaters populated with the native Gammarus duebeni celticus, with intraguild predation between the two implicated in their relative success. However, these species also engage in day and night

Predator-prey interactions between brown trout Salmo trutta and native and introduced amphipods; their implications for fish diets

An attempt to improve the food base for brown trout Salmo trutta in Northern Ireland was made in 1958.59 by deliberately introducing English Gammarus pulex into several Irish rivers. In addition. another amphipod Crangonyx pseudogracilis, was later accidently introduced into II ish waters. Our study represents the first attempt to examine the trophic interactions between a native fish predator (S. trutta) and an array of these native (Gammarus duebeni celticus) and introduced (G. pulex and C. pseudogracilis) amphipods. Feeding experiments, involving young brown trout predators and ampiphod prey, revealed that the fish actively selected C. pseudogracilis relative to two alternative Gammarus prey species. Although the trout encountered the Gammarus species more than C. pseudogracilis, they were eaten less than Crangonyx. Difficulties in handling and ingestion of Gammarus by trout may be a. key component of the preference fbr the smaller, more easily handled Crangonyx. The microdistribution of the species was altered by the fish, due to predation being greater in particular microhabitats, Our study showed that the introduction of the herbivorous C. pseudogracilis into Irish freshwaters may represent a useful addition to fish diets. particularly for small and/or juvenile fish. The reprecussions of the deliberate introduction of G. pulex are less clear. It may improve feeding for fish. but only if it can coexist with indigenous macroinvertebrates and thus ultimately improve the range and quantity of possible food items in predator diets. Alternatively, being highly predatory towards other macroinvertebrates including G. d. celticus and C. pseudogracilis. G. pulex may be deleterious to the diversity of the resident benthic community and hence reduce the diversity of prey available to fish predators.

Red-shifts and red herrings in geographical ecology

I draw attention to the need for ecologists to take spatial structure into account more seriously in hypothesis testing. If spatial autocorrelation is ignored, as it usually is, then analyses of ecological patterns in terms of environmental factors can produce very misleading results. This is demonstrated using synthetic but realistic spatial patterns with known spatial properties which are subjected to classical correlation and multiple regression analyses. Correlation between an autocorrelated response variable and each of a set of explanatory variables is strongly biased in favour of those explanatory variables that are highly autocorrelated - the expected magnitude of the correlation coefficient increases with autocorrelation even if the spatial patterns are completely independent. Similarly, multiple regression analysis finds highly autocorrelated explanatory variables "significant" much more frequently than it should. The chances of mistakenly identifying a "significant" slope across an autocorrelated pattern is very high if classical regression is used. Consequently, under these circumstances strongly autocorrelated environmental factors reported in the literature as associated with ecological patterns may not actually be significant. It is likely that these factors wrongly described as important constitute a red-shifted subset of the set of potential explanations, and that more spatially discontinuous factors (those with bluer spectra) are actually relatively more important than their present status suggests. There is much that ecologists can do to improve on this situation. I discuss various approaches to the problem of spatial autocorrelation from the literature and present a randomisation test for the association of two spatial patterns which has advantages over currently available methods.

Are richness patterns of common and rare species equally well explained by environmental variables?

We investigated relationships between richness patterns of rare and common grassland species and environmental factors, focussing on comparing the degree to which the richness patterns of rare and common species are determined by simple environmental variables. Using data collected in the Machair grassland of the Outer Hebrides of Scotland, we fitted spatial regression models using a suite of grazing, soil physicochemical and microtopographic covariates, to nested sub-assemblages of vascular and non-vascular species ranked according to rarity. As expected, we found that common species drive richness patterns, but rare vascular species had significantly stronger affinity for high richness areas. After correcting for the prevalence of individual species distributions, we found differences between common and rare species in 1) the amount of variation explained: richness patterns of common species were better summarised by simple environmental variables, 2) the associations of environmental variables with richness showed systematic trends between common and rare species with coefficient sign reversal for several factors, and 3) richness associations with rare environments: richness patterns of rare vascular species significantly matched rare environments but those of non-vascular species did not. Richness patterns of rare species, at least in this system, may be intrinsically less predictable than those of common species.

Patterns of synchrony in natterjack toad breeding activity and reproductive success at local and regional scales

Empirical studies of the spatiotemporal dynamics of populations are required to better understand natural fluctuations in abundance and reproductive success, and to better target conservation and monitoring programmes. In particular, spatial synchrony in amphibian populations remains little studied. We used data from a comprehensive three year study of natterjack toad Bufo calamita populations breeding at 36 ponds to assess whether there was spatial synchrony in the toad breeding activity (start and length of breeding season, total number of egg strings) and reproductive success (premetamorphic survival and production of metamorphs). We defined a novel approach to assess the importance of short-term synchrony at both local and regional scales. The approach employs similarity indices and quantifies the interaction between the temporal and spatial components of populations using mixed effects models. There was no synchrony in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success at the local scale, suggesting that populations function as individual clusters independent of each other. Regional synchrony was apparent in the commencement and duration of the breeding season and in the number of egg strings laid (indicative of female population size). Regional synchrony in both rainfall and temperature are likely to explain the patterns observed (e.g. Moran effect). There was no evidence supporting regional synchrony in reproductive success, most likely due to spatial variability in the environmental conditions at the breeding ponds, and to differences in local population fitness (e.g. fecundity). The small scale asynchronous dynamics and regional synchronous dynamics in the number of breeding females indicate that it is best to monitor several populations within a subset of regions. Importantly, variations in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success are not synchronous, and it is thus important to consider them both when assessing the conservation status of pond-breeding amphibians. © 2012 The Authors. Ecography © 2012 Nordic Society Oikos.

Historical data reveal power-law dispersal patterns of invasive aquatic species

Understanding how invasive species spread is of particular concern in the current era of globalisation and rapid environmental change. The occurrence of super-diffusive movements within the context of Lévy flights has been discussed with respect to particle physics, human movements, microzooplankton, disease spread in global epidemiology and animal foraging behaviour. Super-diffusive movements provide a theoretical explanation for the rapid spread of organisms and disease, but their applicability to empirical data on the historic spread of organisms has rarely been tested. This study focuses on the role of long-distance dispersal in the invasion dynamics of aquatic invasive species across three contrasting areas and spatial scales: open ocean (north-east Atlantic), enclosed sea (Mediterranean) and an island environment (Ireland). Study species included five freshwater plant species, Azolla filiculoides, Elodea canadensis, Lagarosiphon major, Elodea nuttallii and Lemna minuta; and ten species of marine algae, Asparagopsis armata, Antithamnionella elegans, Antithamnionella ternifolia, Codium fragile, Colpomenia peregrina, Caulerpa taxifolia, Dasysiphonia sp., Sargassum muticum, Undaria pinnatifida and Womersleyella setacea. A simulation model is constructed to show the validity of using historical data to reconstruct dispersal kernels. Lévy movement patterns similar to those previously observed in humans and wild animals are evident in the re-constructed dispersal pattern of invasive aquatic species. Such patterns may be widespread among invasive species and could be exacerbated by further development of trade networks, human travel and environmental change. These findings have implications for our ability to predict and manage future invasions, and improve our understanding of the potential for spread of organisms including infectious diseases, plant pests and genetically modified organisms.

Diversity, extinction, and threat status in Lagomorphs

A quarter of all lagomorphs (pikas, rabbits, hares and jackrabbits) are threatened with extinction, including several genera that contain only one species. The number of species in a genus correlates with extinction risk in lagomorphs, but not in other mammal groups, and this is concerning because the non-random extinction of small clades disproportionately threatens genetic diversity and phylogenetic history. Here, we use phylogenetic analyses to explore the properties of the lagomorph phylogeny and test if variation in evolution, biogeography and ecology between taxa explains current patterns of diversity and extinction risk. Threat status was not related to body size (and, by inference, its biological correlates), and there was no phylogenetic signal in extinction risk. We show that the lagomorph phylogeny has a similar clade-size distribution to other mammals, and found that genus size was unrelated to present climate, topography, or geographic range size. Extinction risk was greater in areas of higher human population density and negatively correlated with anthropogenically modified habitat. Consistent with this, habitat generalists were less likely to be threatened. Our models did not predict threat status accurately for taxa that experience region-specific threats. We suggest that pressure from human populations is so severe and widespread that it overrides ecological, biological, and geographic variation in extant lagomorphs.

The extended phenotype of Scots pine Pinus sylvestris structures the understorey assemblage

Heritable variation in plant secondary compounds in dominant species has been hypothesised to effect ecosystem function and the structure of associated assemblages of plants, microbes and animals. The functioning of this extended phenotype in relation to the understorey vegetation composition was tested within a boreal forest system dominated by Pinus sylvestris which contains a range of monoterpenes, the composition of which is largely under genetic control. A variance partitioning approach was adopted to identify the relative importance of tree chemistry, environment, spatial location and tree architecture in controlling the distribution of species in the ground flora under individual trees. The monoterpene composition of the pine needles appeared to contribute significantly to controlling understorey vegetation composition, but was less important than environmental factors, though similar to spatial factors. Thus there appears to be a link between variation in the chemical composition of the single, dominant tree species within this system and the pattern of occurrence and abundance in other species at the same trophic level.

Climate drives temporal replacement and nested‐resultant richness patterns of Scottish coastal vegetation

Beta diversity quantifies spatial and/or temporal variation in species composition. It is comprised of two distinct components, species replacement and nestedness, which derive from opposing ecological processes. Using Scotland as a case study and a β-diversity partitioning framework, we investigate temporal replacement and nestedness patterns of coastal grassland species over a 34-yr time period. We aim to 1) understand the influence of two potentially pivotal processes (climate and land-use changes) on landscape-scale (5 × 5 km) temporal replacement and nestedness patterns, and 2) investigate whether patterns from one β-diversity component can mask observable patterns in the other.

We summarised key aspects of climate driven macro-ecological variation as measures of variance, long-term trends, between-year similarity and extremes, for three important climatic predictors (minimum temperature, water-balance and growing degree-days). Shifts in landscape-scale heterogeneity, a proxy of land-use change, was summarised as a spatial multiple-site dissimilarity measure. Together, these climatic and spatial predictors were used in a multi-model inference framework to gauge the relative contribution of each on temporal replacement and nestedness patterns.

Temporal β-diversity patterns were reasonably well explained by climate change but weakly explained by changes in landscape-scale heterogeneity. Climate was shown to have a greater influence on temporal nestedness than replacement patterns over our study period, linking nestedness patterns, as a result of imbalanced gains and losses, to climatic warming and extremes respectively. Important climatic predictors (i.e. growing degree-days) of temporal β-diversity were also identified, and contrasting patterns between the two β-diversity components revealed.

Results suggest climate influences plant species recruitment and establishment processes of Scotland's coastal grasslands, and while species extinctions take time, they are likely to be facilitated by climatic perturbations. Our findings also highlight the importance of distinguishing between different components of β-diversity, disentangling contrasting patterns than can mask one another.