The First International Workshop on Warning Criteria for Active Slides: technical issues, problems and solutions for managing early warning systems

Early warning systems (EWSs) rely on the capacity to forecast a dangerous event with a certain amount of advance by defining warning criteria on which the safety of the population will depend. Monitoring of landslides is facilitated by new technologies, decreasing prices and easier data processing. At the same time, predicting the onset of a rapid failure or the sudden transition from slow to rapid failure and subsequent collapse, and its consequences is challenging for scientists that must deal with uncertainties and have limited tools to do so. Furthermore, EWS and warning criteria are becoming more and more a subject of concern between technical experts, researchers, stakeholders and decision makers responsible for the activation, enforcement and approval of civil protection actions. EWSs imply also a sharing of responsibilities which is often averted by technical staff, managers of technical offices and governing institutions. We organized the First International Workshop on Warning Criteria for Active Slides (IWWCAS) to promote sharing and networking among members from specialized institutions and relevant experts of EWS. In this paper, we summarize the event to stimulate discussion and collaboration between organizations dealing with the complex task of managing hazard and risk related to active slides.

Operator's manual : platoon early warning systems AN/TRS-2(V)1 (NSN 5895-01-063-8103) ... AN/TRS-2(V)6 (NSN 5895-01-068-6749).

"30 June 1980."

Early warning systems for cyber defence

Cybercriminals ramp up their efforts with sophisticated techniques while defenders gradually update their typical security measures. Attackers often have a long-term interest in their targets. Due to a number of factors such as scale, architecture and nonproductive traffic however it makes difficult to detect them using typical intrusion detection techniques. Cyber early warning systems (CEWS) aim at alerting such attempts in their nascent stages using preliminary indicators. Design and implementation of such systems involves numerous research challenges such as generic set of indicators, intelligence gathering, uncertainty reasoning and information fusion. This paper discusses such challenges and presents the reader with compelling motivation. A carefully deployed empirical analysis using a real world attack scenario and a real network traffic capture is also presented.

Towards global drought early warning capability: expanding international cooperation for the development of a framework for global drought monitoring and forecasting

Drought is a global problem that has far-reaching impacts and especially 47 on vulnerable populations in developing regions. This paper highlights the need for a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), the elements that constitute its underlying framework (GDEWF) and the recent progress made towards its development. Many countries lack drought monitoring systems, as well as the capacity to respond via appropriate political, institutional and technological frameworks, and these have inhibited the development of integrated drought management plans or early warning systems. The GDEWS will provide a source of drought tools and products via the GDEWF for countries and regions to develop tailored drought early warning systems for their own users. A key goal of a GDEWS is to maximize the lead time for early warning, allowing drought managers and disaster coordinators more time to put mitigation measures in place to reduce the vulnerability to drought. To address this, the GDEWF will take both a top-down approach to provide global real-time drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting, and a bottom-up approach that builds upon existing national and regional systems to provide continental to global coverage. A number of challenges must be overcome, however, before a GDEWS can become a reality, including the lack of in-situ measurement networks and modest seasonal forecast skill in many regions, and the lack of infrastructure to translate data into useable information. A set of international partners, through a series of recent workshops and evolving collaborations, has made progress towards meeting these challenges and developing a global system.

Building climate resilience: lessons of early warning in Africa

Given the high levels of uncertainty and substantial variability in local weather and climate, what constitutes successful adaptation for the 800 million food-insecure people in Africa? In this context there is a need for building climate resilience through effective early warning systems, bringing real-time monitoring and decision-making together with stakeholders. The chapter presents two effective operational early warning systems in Africa: The Radio and Internet (RANET) network and the Rainwatch project. These examples were developed in partnership with local climate scientists and tailored to local development needs, enabled and encouraged with only modest international support. They deliver important lessons about how to prepare for crises using simple real-time monitoring. They also help us identify characteristics of managing for resilience in practice. The chapter concludes that successful adaptation requires adaptive, flexible, linked institutions, together with ground-based collaboration and practical tools. In the context of early warning three features stand out that make these systems successful: effective communication of current weather and climate information, a key individual within a bridging organization with the ability to navigate the governance systems, and sufficient time for innovation development.

Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) scoping study: Annex 3 - Early warning system and risk assessment case studies

This report provides case studies of Early Warning Systems (EWSs) and risk assessments encompassing three main hazard types: drought; flood and cyclone. The case studies are taken from ten countries across three continents (focusing on Africa, South Asia and the Caribbean). The case studies have been developed to assist the UK Department for International Development (DFID) to prioritise areas for Early Warning System (EWS) related research under their ‘Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience’ (SHEAR) programme. The aim of these case studies is to ensure that DFID SHEAR research is informed by the views of Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) and communities engaged with Early Warning Systems and risk assessments (including community-based Early Warning Systems). The case studies highlight a number of challenges facing Early Warning Systems (EWSs). These challenges relate to financing; integration; responsibilities; community interpretation; politics; dissemination; accuracy; capacity and focus. The case studies summarise a number of priority areas for EWS related research: • Priority 1: Contextualising and localising early warning information • Priority 2: Climate proofing current EWSs • Priority 3: How best to sustain effective EWSs between hazard events? • Priority 4: Optimising the dissemination of risk and warning information • Priority 5: Governance and financing of EWSs • Priority 6: How to support EWSs under challenging circumstances • Priority 7: Improving EWSs through monitoring and evaluating the impact and effectiveness of those systems

Development Of Water Pollution Early Warning System For Oyster Harvesting Areas

The objective of this study is to develop a Pollution Early Warning System (PEWS) for efficient management of water quality in oyster harvesting areas. To that end, this paper presents a web-enabled, user-friendly PEWS for managing water quality in oyster harvesting areas along Louisiana Gulf Coast, USA. The PEWS consists of (1) an Integrated Space-Ground Sensing System (ISGSS) gathering data for environmental factors influencing water quality, (2) an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for predicting the level of fecal coliform bacteria, and (3) a web-enabled, user-friendly Geographic Information System (GIS) platform for issuing water pollution advisories and managing oyster harvesting waters. The ISGSS (data acquisition system) collects near real-time environmental data from various sources, including NASA MODIS Terra and Aqua satellites and in-situ sensing stations managed by the USGS and the NOAA. The ANN model is developed using the ANN program in MATLAB Toolbox. The ANN model involves a total of 6 independent environmental variables, including rainfall, tide, wind, salinity, temperature, and weather type along with 8 different combinations of the independent variables. The ANN model is constructed and tested using environmental and bacteriological data collected monthly from 2001 – 2011 by Louisiana Molluscan Shellfish Program at seven oyster harvesting areas in Louisiana Coast, USA. The ANN model is capable of explaining about 76% of variation in fecal coliform levels for model training data and 44% for independent data. The web-based GIS platform is developed using ArcView GIS and ArcIMS. The web-based GIS system can be employed for mapping fecal coliform levels, predicted by the ANN model, and potential risks of norovirus outbreaks in oyster harvesting waters. The PEWS is able to inform decision-makers of potential risks of fecal pollution and virus outbreak on a daily basis, greatly reducing the risk of contaminated oysters to human health.

It takes an institution's village to retain a student: A comprehensive look at two early warning system undergraduate retention programs and administrators' perceptions of students' experiences and the retention services they provide students in the early warning system retention programs

Institutions have implemented many campus interventions to address student persistence/retention, one of which is Early Warning Systems (EWS). However, few research studies show evidence of interventions that incorporate noncognitive factors/skills, and psychotherapy/psycho-educational processes in the EWS. A qualitative study (phenomenological interview and document analysis) of EWS at both a public and private 4-year Florida university was conducted to explore EWS through the eyes of the administrators of the ways administrators make sense of students' experiences and the services they provide and do not provide to assist students. Administrators' understanding of noncognitive factors and the executive skills subset and their contribution to retention and the executive skills development of at-risk students were also explored. Hossler and Bean's multiple retention lenses theory/paradigms and Perez's retention strategies were used to guide the study. Six administrators from each institution who oversee and/or assist with EWS for first time in college undergraduate students considered academically at-risk for attrition were interviewed. Among numerous findings, at Institution X: EWS was infrequently identified as a service, EWS training was not conducted, numerous cognitive and noncognitive issues/deficits were identified for students, and services/critical departments such as EWS did not work together to share students' information to benefit students. Assessment measures were used to identify students' issues/deficits; however, they were not used to assess, track, and monitor students' issues/deficits. Additionally, the institution's EWS did address students' executive skills function beyond time management and organizational skills, but did not address students' psychotherapy/psycho-educational processes. Among numerous findings, at Institution Y: EWS was frequently identified as a service, EWS training was not conducted, numerous cognitive and noncognitive issues/deficits were identified for students, and services/critical departments such as EWS worked together to share students' information to benefit students. Assessment measures were used to identify, track, and monitor students' issues/deficits; however, they were not used to assess students' issues/deficits. Additionally, the institution's EWS addressed students' executive skills function beyond time management and organizational skills, and psychotherapy/psycho-educational processes. Based on the findings, Perez's retention strategies were not utilized in EWS at Institution X, yet were collectively utilized in EWS at Institution Y, to achieve Hossler and Bean's retention paradigms. Future research could be designed to test the link between engaging in the specific promising activities identified in this research (one-to-one coaching, participation in student success workshops, academic contracts, and tutoring) and student success (e.g., higher GPA, retention). Further, because this research uncovered some concern with how to best handle students with physical and psychological disabilities, future research could link these same promising strategies for improving student performance for example among ADHD students or those with clinical depression.

The framework for REVIEWS: an exploration into design principles for an electronic medical early warning system observation chart

The observation chart is for many health professionals (HPs) the primary source of objective information relating to the health of a patient. Information Systems (IS) research has demonstrated the positive impact of good interface design on decision making and it is logical that good observation chart design can positively impact healthcare decision making. Despite the potential for good observation chart design, there is a paucity of observation chart design literature, with the primary source of literature leveraging Human Computer Interaction (HCI) literature to design better charts. While this approach has been successful, this design approach introduces a gap between understanding of the tasks performed by HPs when using charts and the design features implemented in the chart. Good IS allow for the collection and manipulation of data so that it can be presented in a timely manner that support specific tasks. Good interface design should therefore consider the specific tasks being performed prior to designing the interface. This research adopts a Design Science Research (DSR) approach to formalise a framework of design principles that incorporates knowledge of the tasks performed by HPs when using observation charts and knowledge pertaining to visual representations of data and semiology of graphics. This research is presented in three phases, the initial two phases seek to discover and formalise design knowledge embedded in two situated observation charts: the paper-based NEWS chart developed by the Health Service Executive in Ireland and the electronically generated eNEWS chart developed by the Health Information Systems Research Centre in University College Cork. A comparative evaluation of each chart is also presented in the respective phases. Throughout each of these phases, tentative versions of a design framework for electronic vital sign observation charts are presented, with each subsequent iteration of the framework (versions Alpha, Beta, V0.1 and V1.0) representing a refinement of the design knowledge. The design framework will be named the framework for the Retrospective Evaluation of Vital Sign Information from Early Warning Systems (REVIEWS). Phase 3 of the research presents the deductive process for designing and implementing V0.1 of the framework, with evaluation of the instantiation allowing for the final iteration V1.0 of the framework. This study makes a number of contributions to academic research. First the research demonstrates that the cognitive tasks performed by nurses during clinical reasoning can be supported through good observation chart design. Secondly the research establishes the utility of electronic vital sign observation charts in terms of supporting the cognitive tasks performed by nurses during clinical reasoning. Third the framework for REVIEWS represents a comprehensive set of design principles which if applied to chart design will improve the usefulness of the chart in terms of supporting clinical reasoning. Fourth the electronic observation chart that emerges from this research is demonstrated to be significantly more useful than previously designed charts and represents a significant contribution to practice. Finally the research presents a research design that employs a combination of inductive and deductive design activities to iterate on the design of situated artefacts.

THE USE OF THE EARLY WARNING INDICATOR REPORT TO IMPACT NINTH GRADE PROMOTION RATES IN A LARGE URBAN SCHOOL DISTRICT

Abstract The purpose of this study was to examine how four high schools used an Early Warning Indicator Report (EWIR) to improve ninth grade promotion rates. Ninth grade on-time promotion is an early predictor of a student’s likelihood to graduate (Bornsheuer, Polonyi, Andrews, Fore, & Onwuegbuzie, 2011; Leckrone & Griffith, 2006; Roderick, Kelley-Kemple, Johnson, & Beechum, 2014; Zvoch, 2006). The analysis revealed both similarities and differences in the ways that the four schools used the EWIR. The research took place in a large urban school district in the Mid-Atlantic. Sixteen participants from four high schools and the district’s central office voluntarily participated in face-to-face interviews. The researcher utilized a qualitative case study method to examine the implementation of the EWIR system in Wyatt School District. The interview data was transcribed and analyzed, along with district documents, to identify categories in this cross case analysis. Three primary themes emerged from the data: (1) targeted school structures for EWIR implementation, (2) the EWIR identified necessary supports for students, and (3) the central office support for school staff. The findings revealed the various ways that the target schools implemented the EWIR in their buildings and the level of support that they received from the central office that aided them in using the EWIR to improve ninth grade promotion rates. Based on the findings of this study, the researcher provided a number of key recommendations: (1) Districts should provide professional development to schools to ensure that schools have the support they need to implement the EWIR successfully; (2) There should be increased accountability from the central office for schools using the EWIR to identify impactful interventions for ninth graders; and (3) The district needs to assign dedicated central office staff to support the implementation of the EWIR in high schools across the district. As schools continue to face the challenge of improving ninth grade promotion rates, effective use of an Early Warning Indicator Report is recommended to provide school and district staff with data needed to impact overall student performance.

Early Warning System Potential for Single Sourcing Risk Mitigation

Part 17: Risk Analysis

Managing the risks of medical technology: Do hazard surveillance systems provide an early warning of medical device problems?

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is responsible for risk assessment and risk management in the post-market surveillance of the U.S. medical device industry. One of the FDA regulatory mechanisms, the Medical Device Reporting System (MDR) is an adverse event reporting system intended to provide the FDA with advance warning of device problems. It includes voluntary reporting for individuals, and mandatory reporting for device manufacturers. ^ In a study of alleged breast implant safety problems, this research examines the organizational processes by which the FDA gathers data on adverse events and uses adverse event reporting systems to assess and manage risk. The research reviews the literature on problem recognition, risk perception, and organizational learning to understand the influence highly publicized events may have on adverse event reporting. Understanding the influence of an environmental factor, such as publicity, on adverse event reporting can provide insight into the question of whether the FDA's adverse event reporting system operates as an early warning system for medical device problems. ^ The research focuses on two main questions. The first question addresses the relationship between publicity and the voluntary and mandatory reporting of adverse events. The second question examines whether government agencies make use of these adverse event reports. ^ Using quantitative and qualitative methods, a longitudinal study was conducted of the number and content of adverse event reports regarding breast implants filed with the FDA's medical device reporting system during 1985–1991. To assess variation in publicity over time, the print media were analyzed to identify articles related to breast implant failures. ^ The exploratory findings suggest that an increase in media activity is related to an increase in voluntary reporting, especially following periods of intense media coverage of the FDA. However, a similar relationship was not found between media activity and manufacturers' mandatory adverse event reporting. A review of government committee and agency reports on the FDA published during 1976–1996 produced little evidence to suggest that publicity or MDR information contributed to problem recognition, agenda setting, or the formulation of policy recommendations. ^ The research findings suggest that the reporting of breast implant problems to FDA may reflect the perceptions and concerns of the reporting groups, a barometer of the volume and content of media attention. ^