Observed and simulated precipitation responses in wet and dry regions 1850–2100

Global warming is expected to enhance fluxes of fresh water between the surface and atmosphere, causing wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier, with serious implications for water resource management. Defining the wet and dry regions as the upper 30% and lower 70% of the precipitation totals across the tropics (30° S–30° N) each month we combine observations and climate model simulations to understand changes in the wet and dry regions over the period 1850–2100. Observed decreases in precipitation over dry tropical land (1950–2010) are also simulated by coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models (−0.3%/decade) with trends projected to continue into the 21st century. Discrepancies between observations and simulations over wet land regions since 1950 exist, relating to decadal fluctuations in El Niño southern oscillation, the timing of which is not represented by the coupled simulations. When atmosphere-only simulations are instead driven by observed sea surface temperature they are able to adequately represent this variability over land. Global distributions of precipitation trends are dominated by spatial changes in atmospheric circulation. However, the tendency for already wet regions to become wetter (precipitation increases with warming by 3% K−1 over wet tropical oceans) and the driest regions drier (precipitation decreases of −2% K−1 over dry tropical land regions) emerges over the 21st century in response to the substantial surface warming.

Have greenhouse gases intensified the contrast between wet and dry regions?

While changes in land precipitation during the last 50 years have been attributed in part to human influences, results vary by season, are affected by data uncertainty and do not account for changes over ocean. One of the more physically robust responses of the water cycle to warming is the expected amplification of existing patterns of precipitation minus evaporation. Here, precipitation changes in wet and dry regions are analyzed from satellite data for 1988–2010, covering land and ocean. We derive fingerprints for the expected change from climate model simulations that separately track changes in wet and dry regions. The simulations used are driven with anthropogenic and natural forcings combined, and greenhouse gas forcing or natural forcing only. Results of detection and attribution analysis show that the fingerprint of combined external forcing is detectable in observations and that this intensification of the water cycle is partly attributable to greenhouse gas forcing.

Origins of dry air in the Tropics and Subtropics

The humidity in the dry regions of the tropical and subtropical troposphere has a major impact on the ability of the atmosphere to radiate heat to space. The water vapour content in these regions is determined by their ``origins'', here defined as the last condensation event following air masses. Trajectory simulations are used to investigate such origins using ERA40 data for January 1993. It is shown that 96% of air parcels experience condensation within 24 days and most of the remaining 4% originate in the stratosphere. Dry air masses are shown to experience a net pressure increase since last condensation which is uniform with latitude, while the median time taken for descent is 5 days into the subtropics but exceeds 16 days into the equatorial lower troposphere. The associated rate of decrease in potential temperature is consistent with radiative cooling. The relationship between the drier regions in the tropics and subtropics and the geographical localization of their origin is investigated. Four transport processes are identified to explain these relationships.

A better understanding of ecological conditions for Leontopodium alpinum Cassini in the Swiss Alps

Although Leontopodium alpinum is considered to be threatened in many countries, only limited scientific information about its autecology is available. In this study, we aim to define the most important ecological factors which influence the distribution of L. alpinum in the Swiss Alps. These were assessed at the national scale using species distribution models based on topoclimatic predictors and at the community scale using exhaustive plant inventories. The latter were analysed using hierarchical clustering and principal component analysis, and the results were interpreted using ecological indicator values. L. alpinum was found almost exclusively on base-rich bedrocks (limestone and ultramaphic rocks). The species distribution models showed that the available moisture (dry regions, mostly in the Inner Alps), elevation (mostly above 2000 m.a.s.l.) and slope (mostly >30°) were the most important predictors. The relevés showed that L. alpinum is present in a wide range of plant communities, all subalpine-alpine open grasslands, with a low grass cover. As a light-demanding and short species, L. alpinum requires light at ground level; hence, it can only grow in open, nutrient-poor grasslands. These conditions are met in dry conditions (dry, summer-warm climate, rocky and draining soil, south-facing aspect and/or steep slope), at high elevations, on oligotrophic soils and/or on windy ridges. Base-rich soils appear to also be essential, although it is still unclear if this corresponds to physiological or ecological (lower competition) requirements.

Sistemática, filogenia e distribuição geográfica das espécies sul-americanas de Centris (Paracentris) Cameron, 1903 e de Centris (Penthemisia) Moure, 1950, incluindo uma análise filogenética do "grupo Centris" sensu Ayala, 1998 (Hymenoptera, Apoidea, Centridini)

Systematics, phylogeny and geographical distribution of the South American species of Centris (Paracentris) Cameron, 1903, and Centris (Penthemisia) Moure, 1950, including a phylogenetic analysis of the "Centris group" sensu Ayala, 1998 (Hymenoptera, Apoidea, Centridini). A cladistic analysis with the objective of testing the hypothesis of monophily of Centris (Paracentris) Cameron, 1903, and of studying its phylogenetic relationships with the other subgenera that belong to the Centris group, sensu Ayala, 1998, and the relationships among the species that occur in South America, is presented. Centris (Paracentris) is a group of New World bees of amphitropical distribution, especially diversified in the Andes and in the xeric areas of South and North America. Thirty-one species were included in the analysis, four considered as outgroup, and 49 characters, all from external morphology and genitalia of adult specimens. Parsimony analyses with equal weights for the characters and successive weighting were performed with the programs NONA and PAUP, and analyses of implied weighting with the program PeeWee. The strict consensus among the trees obtained in all the analyses indicates that C. (Paracentris), as previously recognized, is a paraphyletic group. In order to eliminate that condition, the subgenera C. (Acritocentris), C. (Exallocentris) and C. (Xerocentris), all described by SNELLING (1974) are synonymized under C. (Paracentris). The subgenus C. (Penthemisia) Moure, 1950, previously considered a synonym of C. (Paracentris), is reinstated, but in a more restricted sense than originally proposed and with the following species: Centris brethesi Schrottky, 1902; C. buchholzi Herbst, 1918; C. chilensis (Spinola, 1851), C. mixta mixta Friese, 1904, and C. mixta tamarugalis Toro & Chiappa, 1989. Centris mixta, previously recognized as the only South American species of the subgenus C. (Xerocentris), a group supposedly amphitropical, came out as the sister-species of C. buchholzi. The following South American species were recognized under Centris (Paracentris): Centris burgdorfi Friese, 1901; C. caelebs Friese, 1900; C. cordillerana Roig-Alsina, 2000; C. euphenax Cockerell, 1913; C. flavohirta Friese, 1900; C. garleppi (Schrottky, 1913); C. klugii Friese, 1900; C. lyngbyei Jensen-Haarup, 1908; C. mourei Roig-Alsina, 2000; C. neffi Moure, 2000; C. nigerrima (Spinola, 1851); C. toroi sp. nov.; C. tricolor Friese, 1900; C. unifasciata (Schrottky, 1913), and C. vogeli Roig-Alsina, 2000. The relationships among the subgenera of the "Centris group" were: (Xanthemisia (Penthemisia (Centris s. str. - Paracentris))). Centris xanthomelaena Moure & Castro 2001, an endemic species of the Caatinga and previously considered a C. (Paracentris), came out as the sister group of C. (Centris) s. str. A new species of C. (Paracentris) from Chile is described: Centris toroi sp. nov. Lectotypus designations and redescriptions are presented for Centris burgdorfi, C. caelebs, C. lyngbyei, C. tricolor, C. autrani Vachal, 1904 and C. smithii Friese, 1900. New synonyms proposed: C. buchholzi Herbst, 1918 = Centris wilmattae Cockerell, 1926 syn. nov.; C. caelebs Friese, 1900 = Paracentris fulvohirta Cameron, 1903. The female of C. vogeli Roig-Alsina, 2000 and the male of C. xanthomelaena are described.

Typologie des sols sur gypse et végétation associée en Suisse

Soils on gypsum are well known in dry climates, but were very little described in temperate climate, and never in Switzerland. This study aims to describe soils affected by gypsum in temperate climate and to understand their pedogenesis using standard laboratory analyzes performed on ten Swiss soils located on gypsum outcrops. In parallel, phytosociological relevés described the vegetation encountered in gypsiferous grounds. Gypsification process (secondary gypsum enrichment by precipitation) was observed in all soils. It was particularly important in regions where potential evapotranspiration exceed strongly precipitations in summer (central Valais, Chablais under influence of warm wind). Gypsum contents were regularly measured above 20% in deep horizons, and exceeded locally 70%, building a white, indurate horizon. However, the absence of such a gypsic horizon in the top soil hindered the use of gypsosol (according to the Référentiel pédologique, BAIZE & GIRARD 2009), the typical name of soils affected by gypsum, but restricted to dry regions. As all soils had a high content of magnesium carbonates, they were logically classified in the group of DOLOMITOSOLS. However, according to the World Reference Base for Soil Resources (IUSS 2014), five soils can be classified among the Gypsisols, criteria being here less restricting. These soils are characterized by a coarse texture and a particulate brittle structure making a filtering substrate. They allow water to flow easily taking nutrients. They are not retained by clay, which does generally not exceed 1% of the fine material. The saturation of calcium blocks the breakdown of organic matter. Moreover, these soils are often rejuvenated by erosion caused by the rough relief due to gypsum (landslides, sinkholes, cliffs and slopes). Hence, the vegetation is mainly characterized by calcareous and drought tolerant species, with mostly xerothermophilic beech (Cephalanthero-Fagenion) and pine forests (Erico-Pinion sylvestris) in lowlands, or subalpine heathlands (Ericion) and dry calcareous grasslands (Caricion firmae) in higher elevations.

How robust are observed and simulated precipitation responses to tropical ocean warming?

Robust responses and links between the tropical energy and water cycles are investigated using multiple datasets and climate models over the period 1979-2006. Atmospheric moisture and net radiative cooling provide powerful constraints upon future changes in precipitation. While moisture amount is robustly linked with surface temperature, the response of atmospheric net radiative cooling, derived from satellite data, is less coherent. Precipitation trends and relationships with surface temperature are highly sensitive to the data product and the time-period considered. Data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) produces the strongest trends in precipitation and response to warming of all the datasets considered. The tendency for moist regions to become wetter while dry regions become drier in response to warming is captured by both observations and models. Citation: John, V. O., R. P. Allan, and B. J. Soden (2009), How robust are observed and simulated precipitation responses to tropical ocean warming?

Current changes in tropical precipitation

Current changes in tropical precipitation from satellite data and climate models are assessed. Wet and dry regions of the tropics are defined as the highest 30% and lowest 70% of monthly precipitation values. Observed tropical ocean trends in the wet regime (1.8%/decade) and the dry regions (−2.6%/decade) according to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) over the period including Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data (1988–2008), where GPCP is believed to be more reliable, are of smaller magnitude than when including the entire time series (1979–2008) and closer to model simulations than previous comparisons. Analysing changes in extreme precipitation using daily data within the wet regions, an increase in the frequency of the heaviest 6% of events with warming for the SSM/I observations and model ensemble mean is identified. The SSM/I data indicate an increased frequency of the heaviest events with warming, several times larger than the expected Clausius–Clapeyron scaling and at the upper limit of the substantial range in responses in the model simulations.

Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UKMeteorological Office Hadley Centre’s climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The results suggest that the model reproduces the number and spatial distribution of rainfall extremes with some accuracy, but that mean rainfall and rainfall variability is underestimated (over-estimated) over wet (dry) regions of southern Africa.

Clear-sky biases in satellite infrared estimates of upper tropospheric humidity and its trends

We use microwave retrievals of upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) to estimate the impact of clear-sky-only sampling by infrared instruments on the distribution, variability and trends in UTH. Our method isolates the impact of the clear-sky-only sampling, without convolving errors from other sources. On daily time scales IR-sampled UTH contains large data gaps in convectively active areas, with only about 20-30 % of the tropics (30 S­ 30 N) being sampled. This results in a dry bias of about -9 %RH in the area-weighted tropical daily UTH time series. On monthly scales, maximum clear-sky bias (CSB) is up to -30 %RH over convectively active areas. The magnitude of CSB shows significant correlations with UTH itself (-0.5) and also with the variability in UTH (-0.6). We also show that IR-sampled UTH time series have higher interannual variability and smaller trends compared to microwave sampling. We argue that a significant part of the smaller trend results from the contrasting influence of diurnal drift in the satellite measurements on the wet and dry regions of the tropics.

Co-variation of temperature and precipitation in CMIP5 models and satellite observations

Current variability of precipitation (P) and its response to surface temperature (T) are analysed using coupled(CMIP5) and atmosphere-only (AMIP5) climate model simulations and compared with observational estimates. There is striking agreement between Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observed and AMIP5 simulated P anomalies over land both globally and in the tropics suggesting that prescribed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings are sufficient for simulating the interannual variability in continental P. Differences between the observed and simulated P variability over the ocean, originate primarily from the wet tropical regions, in particular the western Pacific, but are reduced slightly after 1995. All datasets show positive responses of P to T globally of around 2 %/K for simulations and 3-4 %/K in GPCP observations but model responses over the tropical oceans are around 3 times smaller than GPCP over the period 1988-2005. The observed anticorrelation between land and ocean P, linked with El Niño Southern Oscillation, is captured by the simulations. All data sets over the tropical ocean show a tendency for wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier with warming. Over the wet region (75% precipitation percentile), the precipitation response is ~13-15%/K for GPCP and ~5%/K for models while trends in P are 2.4%/decade for GPCP, 0.6% /decade for CMIP5 and 0.9%/decade for AMIP5 suggesting that models are underestimating the precipitation responses or a deficiency exists in the satellite datasets.

Physically consistent responses of the global atmospheric hydrological cycle in models and observations

Robust and physically understandable responses of the global atmospheric water cycle to a warming climate are presented. By considering interannual responses to changes in surface temperature (T), observations and AMIP5 simulations agree on an increase in column integrated water vapor at the rate 7 %/K (in line with the Clausius­Clapeyron equation) and of precipitation at the rate 2-­3 %/K (in line with energetic constraints). Using simple and complex climate models, we demonstrate that radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is currently suppressing global precipitation (P) at ~ -0.15 %/decade. Along with natural variability, this can explain why observed trends in global P over the period 1988-2008 are close to zero. Regional responses in the global water cycle are strongly constrained by changes in moisture fluxes. Model simulations show an increased moisture flux into the tropical wet region at 900 hPa and an enhanced outflow (of smaller magnitude) at around 600 hPa with warming. Moisture transport explains an increase in P in the wet tropical regions and small or negative changes in the dry regions of the subtropics in CMIP5 simulations of a warming climate. For AMIP5 simulations and satellite observations, the heaviest 5-day rainfall totals increase in intensity at ~15 %/K over the ocean with reductions at all percentiles over land. The climate change response in CMIP5 simulations shows consistent increases in P over ocean and land for the highest intensities, close to the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 7 %/K, while P declines for the lowest percentiles, indicating that interannual variability over land may not be a good proxy for climate change. The local changes in precipitation and its extremes are highly dependent upon small shifts in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional feedbacks.

Revisiting trends in wetness and dryness in the presence of internal climate variability and water limitations over land

A theoretically expected consequence of the intensification of the hydrological cycle under global warming is that on average, wet regions get wetter and dry regions get drier (WWDD). Recent studies, however, have found significant discrepancies between the expected pattern of change and observed changes over land. We assess the WWDD theory in four climate models. We find that the reported discrepancy can be traced to two main issues: (1) unforced internal climate variability strongly affects local wetness and dryness trends and can obscure underlying agreement with WWDD, and (2) dry land regions are not constrained to become drier by enhanced moisture divergence since evaporation cannot exceed precipitation over multiannual time scales. Over land, where the available water does not limit evaporation, a “wet gets wetter” signal predominates. On seasonal time scales, where evaporation can exceed precipitation, trends in wet season becoming wetter and dry season becoming drier are also found.

Birds of a central São Paulo woodlot: 1. Censuses 1982-2000

Foram listadas 263 aves próximo e dentro de uma mata semidecídua de 230 ha em meio a plantações de cana-de-açúcar, na região central do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Subtraindo-se 67 espécies de áreas abertas, 22 de riachos, 10 vagantes e 12 observadas mais tarde, cerca de 152 espécies de mata e de borda foram observadas entre 1982-86, semelhantemente às observadas em uma mata próxima a Campinas. Ambas as matas perderam espécies gradualmente. Algumas aves evitaram as margens duras dos canaviais, preferindo as margens macias arbustivas. Das espécies de área aberta, parece que 22 desapareceram até 1997, em razão das abundantes chuvas anteriores causadas por El Niño, ou pela raridade de habitats permanentemente abertos nos canaviais; 17 espécies novas eram principalmente noturnas que não haviam sido checadas anteriormente, ou visitantes ocasionais. A mata e as bordas perderam 37 espécies, ganhando 5 de regiões secas e 1 visitante de inverno. Vários migrantes do sul apareceram somente em anos chuvosos antes do recente efeito estufa; algumas aves residentes foram caçadas, e os beija-flores das copas talvez estivessem presentes ainda. As espécies de zonas secas, prones à movimentação ou metapopulacionais, movem os centros de distribuição, camuflando parcialmente a perda de diversidade da mata úmida.

Land-atmosphere coupling over North America in CRCM5

Land-atmosphere coupling and its impact on extreme precipitation and temperature events over North America are studied using the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). To this effect, two 30 year long simulations, spanning the 1981–2010 period, with and without land-atmosphere coupling, have been performed with CRCM5, driven by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis at the boundaries. In the coupled simulation, the soil moisture interacts freely with the atmosphere at each time step, while in the uncoupled simulation, soil moisture is replaced with its climatological value computed from the coupled simulation, thus suppressing the soil moisture-atmosphere interactions. Analyses of the coupled and uncoupled simulations, for the summer period, show strong soil moisture-temperature coupling over the Great Plains, consistent with previous studies. The maxima of soil moisture-precipitation coupling is more spread out and covers the semiarid regions of the western U.S. and parts of the Great Plains. However, the strength of soil moisture-precipitation coupling is found to be generally weaker than that of soil moisture-temperature coupling. The study clearly indicates that land-atmosphere coupling increases the interannual variability of the seasonal mean daily maximum temperature in the Great Plains. Land-atmosphere coupling is found to significantly modulate selected temperature extremes such as the number of hot days, frequency, and maximum duration of hot spells over the Great Plains. Results also suggest additional hot spots, where soil moisture modulates extreme events. These hot spots are located in the southeast U.S. for the hot days/hot spells and in the semiarid regions of the western U.S. for extreme wet spells. This study thus demonstrates that climatologically wet/dry regions can become hot spots of land-atmosphere coupling when the soil moisture decreases/increases to an intermediate transitional level where evapotranspiration becomes moisture sensitive and large enough to affect the climate.