The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. II: Changing ENSO regimes

Integrations of a fully-coupled climate model with and without flux adjustments in the equatorial oceans are performed under 2×CO2 conditions to explore in more detail the impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing on the monsoon-ENSO system. When flux adjustments are used to correct some systematic model biases, ENSO behaviour in the modelled future climate features distinct irregular and periodic (biennial) regimes. Comparison with the observed record yields some consistency with ENSO modes primarily based on air-sea interaction and those dependent on basinwide ocean wave dynamics. Simple theory is also used to draw analogies between the regimes and irregular (stochastically forced) and self-excited oscillations respectively. Periodic behaviour is also found in the Asian-Australian monsoon system, part of an overall biennial tendency of the model under these conditions related to strong monsoon forcing and increased coupling between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) thus serves as a useful descriptor for the coupled monsoon-ENSO system in this case. The presence of obvious regime changes in the monsoon-ENSO system on interdecadal timescales, when using flux adjustments, suggests there may be greater uncertainty in projections of future climate, although further modelling studies are required to confirm the realism and cause of such changes.

The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. I: Mean response and interannual variability

The impact of doubled CO2 concentration on the Asian summer monsoon is studied using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Both the mean seasonal precipitation and interannual monsoon variability are found to increase in the future climate scenario presented. Systematic biases in current climate simulations of the coupled system prevent accurate representation of the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection, of prime importance for seasonal prediction and for determining monsoon interannual variability. By applying seasonally varying heat flux adjustments to the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean surface in the future climate simulation, some assessment can be made of the impact of systematic model biases on future climate predictions. In simulations where the flux adjustments are implemented, the response to climate change is magnified, with the suggestion that systematic biases may be masking the true impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing. The teleconnection between ENSO and the Asian summer monsoon remains robust in the future climate, although the Indo-Pacific takes on more of a biennial character for long periods of the flux-adjusted simulation. Assessing the teleconnection across interdecadal timescales shows wide variations in its amplitude, despite the absence of external forcing. This suggests that recent changes in the observed record cannot be distinguished from internal variations and as such are not necessarily related to climate change.

Quantification of physical and biological uncertainty in the simulation of the yield of a tropical crop using present-day and doubled CO2 climates

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter (lambda, the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO2) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966-1989 mean yields of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of lambda near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO2. The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.

Idealized model for changes in equilibrium temperature, mixed layer depth, and boundary layer cloud over land in a doubled CO2 climate

An idealized equilibrium model for the undisturbed partly cloudy boundary layer (BL) is used as a framework to explore the coupling of the energy, water, and carbon cycles over land in midlatitudes and show the sensitivity to the clear‐sky shortwave flux, the midtropospheric temperature, moisture, CO2, and subsidence. The changes in the surface fluxes, the BL equilibrium, and cloud cover are shown for a warmer, doubled CO2 climate. Reduced stomatal conductance in a simple vegetation model amplifies the background 2 K ocean temperature rise to an (unrealistically large) 6 K increase in near‐surface temperature over land, with a corresponding drop of near‐surface relative humidity of about 19%, and a rise of cloud base of about 70 hPa. Cloud changes depend strongly on changes of mean subsidence; but evaporative fraction (EF) decreases. EF is almost uniquely related to mixed layer (ML) depth, independent of background forcing climate. This suggests that it might be possible to infer EF for heterogeneous landscapes from ML depth. The asymmetry of increased evaporation over the oceans and reduced transpiration over land increases in a warmer doubled CO2 climate.

CO2倍增对紫花苜蓿的生态生理作用及模型

本论文是国家自然科学基金重大项目“中国陆地生态系统对全球变化的反应模式研究”下子项目“对全球变化反应植物生态生理学的基础模型研究”中的重要部分。 本文研究了紫花苜蓿(Medicago Sativa L．)在C02倍增下光合作用、蒸腾作用、气孔导度、叶面积、物候进程、高度、以及生物量的生态生理变化，并在此基础上对苜蓿进行了生态生理模型化的研究。 在倍增(694ppm)和对照(375ppm) C02浓度下，对紫花苜蓿的生态生理学的研究表明，以整个生育期计，倍增组的表观光合作用比对照组可提高18.7%：气孔导度略有下降(2%);蒸腾作用减少了2.7%;水分利用效率提高了30.1%;叶面积增加了48.9%;每株植物白天的净光合总量可提高76.7%，另外，植株高度和整株生物量的测定也显示了C02增加对苜蓿的正效应。 本文还对生理指标的实测数据进行了模型化的研究。对光合作用模型和气孔导度模型中参数的拟合结果表明，C02倍增下，苜蓿的光能转化效率(α)，电子传递速率(Jmax)比对照组都有明显的提高，最大气孔开度(Gsmax)略有下降．

Impacts of CO2 enrichment on growth and photosynthesis in freshwater and marine diatoms

The physiological responses of Nitzschia palea Kutzing, a freshwater diatom, to elevated CO2 were investigated and compared with those of a marine diatom, Chaetoceros muelleri Lemmermann previously reported. Elevated CO2 concentration to 700 mu l/L increased the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and lowered the pH in the cultures of N. palea, thus enhancing the growth by 4%-20% during the whole growth period. High CO2-grown N. palea cells showed lower levels of dark respiration rates and higher I (k) values. Light-saturated photosynthetic rates and photosynthetic efficiencies decreased in N. palea with the doubling CO2 concentration in airflow to the bottom of cultures, although the doubling CO2 concentration in airflow to the surface cultures had few effects on these two photosynthetic parameters. N. palea cells were found to be capable of using HCO3 (-) in addition to gaseous CO2, and the CO2 enrichment decreased their affinity for HCO3 (-) and CO2. Although doubled CO2 level would enhance the biomass of N. palea and C. muelleri to different extents, compared with the marine diatom, it had a significant effect on the specific growth rates of N. palea. In addition, the responses of photosynthetic parameters of N. palea to doubled CO2 concentration were almost opposite to those of C. muelleri.

Effects of CO2 enrichment on the bloom-forming cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa (Cyanophyceae): Physiological responses and relationships with the availability of dissolved inorganic carbon

Microcystis aeruginosa Kutz. 7820 was cultured at 350 and 700 muL.L-1 CO2 to assess the impacts of doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration on this bloom-forming cyanobacterium. Doubling Of CO2 concentration in the airflow enhanced its growth by 52%-77%, with pH values decreased and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) increased in the medium. Photosynthetic efficiencies and dark respiratory rates expressed per unit chl a tended to increase with the doubling of CO2. However, saturating irradiances for photosynthesis and light-saturated photosynthetic rates normalized to cell number tended to decrease with the increase of DIC in the medium. Doubling of CO2 concentration in the airflow had less effect on DIC-saturated photosynthetic rates and apparent photosynthetic affinities for DIC. In the exponential phase, CO2 and HCO3- levels in the medium were higher than those required to saturate photosynthesis. Cultures with surface aeration were DIC limited in the stationary phase. The rate of CO2 dissolution into the liquid increased proportionally when CO2 in air was raised from 350 to 700 muL.L-1, thus increasing the availability of DIC in the medium and enhancing the rate of photosynthesis. Doubled CO2 could enhance CO2 dissolution, lower pH values, and influence the ionization fractions of various DIC species even when the photosynthesis was not DIC limited. Consequently, HCO3- concentrations in cultures were significantly higher than in controls, and the photosynthetic energy cost for the operation of CO2 concentrating mechanism might decrease.

Changes in the global sulfate burden due to perturbations in global CO2 concentrations

A large ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) integrations coupled to a fully interactive sulfur cycle scheme were run on the climateprediction.net platform to investigate the uncertainty in the climate response to sulfate aerosol and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing. The sulfate burden within the model (and the atmosphere) depends on the balance between formation processes and deposition (wet and dry). The wet removal processes for sulfate aerosol are much faster than dry removal and so any changes in atmospheric circulation, cloud cover, and precipitation will feed back on the sulfate burden. When CO2 is doubled in the Hadley Centre Slab Ocean Model (HadSM3), global mean precipitation increased by 5%; however, the global mean sulfate burden increased by 10%. Despite the global mean increase in precipitation, there were large areas of the model showing decreases in precipitation (and cloud cover) in the Northern Hemisphere during June–August, which reduced wet deposition and allowed the sulfate burden to increase. Further experiments were also undertaken with and without doubling CO2 while including a future anthropogenic sulfur emissions scenario. Doubling CO2 further enhanced the increases in sulfate burden associated with increased anthropogenic sulfur emissions as observed in the doubled CO2-only experiment. The implications are that the climate response to doubling CO2 can influence the amount of sulfate within the atmosphere and, despite increases in global mean precipitation, may act to increase it.

Use of a crop model ensemble to quantify CO2 stimulation of water-stressed and well-watered crops

Increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) will benefit the yield of most crops. Two free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) meta-analyses have shown increases in yield of between 0 and 73% for C3 crops. Despite this large range, few crop modelling studies quantify the uncertainty inherent in the parameterisation of crop growth and development. We present a novel perturbed-parameter method of crop model simulation, which uses some constraints from observations, that does this. The model used is the groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) version of the general large-area model for annual crops (GLAM). The conclusions are of relevance to C3 crops in general. The increases in yield simulated by GLAM for doubled CO2 were between 16 and 62%. The difference in mean percentage increase between well-watered and water-stressed simulations was 6.8. These results were compared to FACE and controlled environment studies, and to sensitivity tests on two other crop models of differing levels of complexity: CROPGRO, and the groundnut model of Hammer et al. [Hammer, G.L., Sinclair, T.R., Boote, K.J., Wright, G.C., Meinke, H., Bell, M.J., 1995. A peanut simulation model. I. Model development and testing. Agron. J. 87, 1085-1093]. The relationship between CO2 and water stress in the experiments and in the models was examined. From a physiological perspective, water-stressed crops are expected to show greater CO2 stimulation than well-watered crops. This expectation has been cited in literature. However, this result is not seen consistently in either the FACE studies or in the crop models. In contrast, leaf-level models of assimilation do consistently show this result. An analysis of the evidence from these models and from the data suggests that scale (canopy versus leaf), model calibration, and model complexity are factors in determining the sign and magnitude of the interaction between CO2 and water stress. We conclude from our study that the statement that 'water-stressed crops show greater CO2 stimulation than well-watered crops' cannot be held to be universally true. We also conclude, preliminarily, that the relationship between water stress and assimilation varies with scale. Accordingly, we provide some suggestions on how studies of a similar nature, using crop models of a range of complexity, could contribute further to understanding the roles of model calibration, model complexity and scale. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

植物个体的生理生态动力学模型

GCTE（全球变化和陆地生态系统），作为IGBP的核心计划之一，其目的是研究陆地生态系统与全球气候变化及人类社会经济和土地利用改变之间相互作用的耦合机理关系，预测生态系统结构、功能的未来变化。其中，植物个体水平的生理生态学模型研究是GCTE中必不可少的重要环节，它不仅可以揭示植物在个体水平上对全球变化的动态响应机制，而且可通过揭示大尺度响应所隐含的微观生物学机理，为大尺度研究提供重要的生理学参数和规律，在全球变化各尺度研究中发挥着不可替代的作用。本文主要围绕植物个体的生理生态学模型开展了如下研究：在开顶式气室CO2倍增大豆生长实验基础上，建立描述植物主要生理过程的生理生态模型，分析植物个体的光合作用、气孔传导度、蒸腾作用以及水分利用效率在全球场变化下的动态响应机制;在此基础上，建立起以统计性天气模型驱动的植物个体生长发育系统动力学模型，通过敏感度分析探讨植物个体的生理生态特性，如光合、呼吸、绿色及非绿色生物量等，对全球变化，特别是对CO2增加，气温升高及降水改变共同作用的响应机制;针对固氮植物的特点，将前一模型发展成为基于共生固氮和同化过程相互作用机制的植物个体生理生态系统动力学模型，模拟不同CO2浓度、气候变化以及固氮与不固氮条件下植物个体生物量的动态响应，并分析CO2浓度、气候条件和是否具固氮能力在对植物生长发育影响方面的相互作用;以中间锦鸡儿为研究材料进行水分控制实验，观测水分对植物同化物分配等过程的影响;将水分利用效率模型应用到NECT样带的主要植物种，得出各植物种的描述其水分利用效率特性的参数，结合样带上各植被类型的结构特征，得到沿样带各植被类型在植物种类组成方面的水分利用效率参数;应用系统聚类分析、因子分析等多元统计方法对样带上锡林河流域122种植物的化学成分与植物类群和所处生境的关系进行了定量分析。结果表明： 1）CO2倍增情况下，净光合速率提高45%，其中光量子效率显著增加，而CO2传导系数略有下降;气孔传导度、蒸腾速率下降约30%;水分利用效率随CO2浓度增加几乎呈线性增长，倍增后提高近一倍。（当气温，水分适宜，光合有效辐射为1000μmol photons m-2 s-1); 2）在北京地区仅CO2倍增而气候条件维持现状的情况下可导致大豆总生物量峰值提高70%，绿色部分提高56%，其中，全生育期内总净光合量增加，而单位干重的暗呼吸速率下降;由于受同化物分配中物候因素的影响，绿色生物量比总生物量提前10日左右到达其峰值。 3）CO2浓度增加和具固氮能力在模拟范围内对植物生长均产生正效应;而在水分为植物生长限制因子的干旱半干旱地区，降水增加对植物生长产生正效应，气温升高则具负效应; 4）随着C供给条件的好转，具固氮能力对植物生长的影响增强;反之随植物吸收N能力的提高，C供给对植物生长的作用加剧。 5）气温、降水在对植物生长发育影响方面，随着一方条件的好转，另一方对植物生长产生的效应增强; 6）具固氮能力对植物生长的正效应随气候条件的好转而增强，气候变化对植物生长的影响随植物具备了固氮能力而加剧; 7）气候条件越恶劣，如在此半干旱区变得更为干旱，CO2浓度增加对植物生长的正效应越加显著;且随CO2浓度的增加，气候因子的效应逐渐减弱。这主要是因CO2增加提高了植物个体的水分利用效率，从而使得CO2的正效应在水分胁迫下更为明显;同时由于水分利用效率的提高，使得植物个体抵御和适应外界环境变化，特别是由气温、降水改变导致的水分条件变化，的能力得到增强。 8）锦鸡儿水分生理生态实验的初步结果表明，土壤水分状况影响着植物的同化物分配，随着水分胁迫的加剧，同化物分配向根部集中，植物的根冠比增加。 9）沿样带水分递减梯度，植被类型在植物种类组成方面的反映水分利用效率特性的参数kv逐渐增加，从而显示出随着水分条件的不足，植被类型中耐旱品种，尤其是C4种增加;人为活动干扰，主要是对草场等的过度利用而导致的盐渍化、沙化，使得退化了的植被类型中k_v值显著提高，表明原有的植物种逐渐被耐旱、耐盐碱的品种，特别是C4植物所代替;在样带动上，这种由于人为活动干扰所引起的植被类型在植物种类组成方面反映水分利用效率特性的参数kv的变化明显大于因样带水分梯度改变而带来的变化。 10）锡林河流域草原植物化学成分一方面与植物类群有关，受自身历史演化的决定，另一方面更受到所处生境条件的极度大影响和制约。其中，禾本科、豆科植物分别具有明显的化学成分特征;撂荒地群落与自然群落中植物、沙质与非沙质生境中植物化学成分差异较显著;因子分析中认为存在大量元素与微量元素两个公共因子，豆科与禾本科相比，豆科植物因其固氮能力，所含大量元素水平较高，而禾本科植物因细胞壁硅质化，含微量元素稍高;沙质生境因其养分贫瘠，植物的大量与微量元素均较非沙质生境中的低;特别是本区地带性土壤-栗钙土与特异性生境沙带中的疏林沙土相比，疏林沙土上植物大量与微量元素含量较栗钙土区植物明显偏低。

Preferred structures in large-scale circulation and the effect of doubling greenhouse gas concentration in HadCM3

Preferred structures in the surface pressure variability are investigated in and compared between two 100-year simulations of the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3. In the first (control) simulation, the model is forced with pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentration (1×CO2) and in the second simulation the model is forced with doubled CO2 concentration (2×CO2). Daily winter (December-January-February) surface pressures over the Northern Hemisphere are analysed. The identification of preferred patterns is addressed using multivariate mixture models. For the control simulation, two significant flow regimes are obtained at 5% and 2.5% significance levels within the state space spanned by the leading two principal components. They show a high pressure centre over the North Pacific/Aleutian Islands associated with a low pressure centre over the North Atlantic, and its reverse. For the 2×CO2 simulation, no such behaviour is obtained. At higher-dimensional state space, flow patterns are obtained from both simulations. They are found to be significant at the 1% level for the control simulation and at the 2.5% level for the 2×CO2 simulation. Hence under CO2 doubling, regime behaviour in the large-scale wave dynamics weakens. Doubling greenhouse gas concentration affects both the frequency of occurrence of regimes and also the pattern structures. The less frequent regime becomes amplified and the more frequent regime weakens. The largest change is observed over the Pacific where a significant deepening of the Aleutian low is obtained under CO2 doubling.

Uncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the Indian monsoon region

Uncertainties in changes to the spatial distribution and magnitude of the heaviest extremes of daily monsoon rainfall over India are assessed in the doubled CO2 climate change scenarios in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Results show diverse changes to the spatial pattern of the 95th and 99th subseasonal percentiles, which are strongly tied to the mean precipitation change during boreal summer. In some models, the projected increase in heaviest rainfall over India at CO2 doubling is entirely predictable based upon the surface warming and the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, a result which may depend upon the choice of convection scheme. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright

Understanding land-sea warming contrast in response to increasing greenhouse gases. Part I: Transient adjustment

Climate model simulations consistently show that surface temperature over land increases more rapidly than over sea in response to greenhouse gas forcing. The enhanced warming over land is not simply a transient effect caused by the land–sea contrast in heat capacities, since it is also present in equilibrium conditions. This paper elucidates the transient adjustment processes over time scales of days to weeks of the surface and tropospheric climate in response to a doubling of CO2 and to changes in sea surface temperature (SST), imposed separately and together, using ensembles of experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model. These adjustment processes can be grouped into three stages: immediate response of the troposphere and surface processes (day 1), fast adjustment of surface processes (days 2–5), and adjustment of the whole troposphere (days 6–20). Some land surface warming in response to doubled CO2 (with unchanged SSTs) occurs immediately because of increased downward longwave radiation. Increased CO2 also leads to reduced plant stomatal resistance and hence restricted evaporation, which increases land surface warming in the first day. Rapid reductions in cloud amount lead in the next few days to increased downward shortwave radiation and further warming, which spreads upward from the surface, and by day 5 the surface and tropospheric response is statistically consistent with the equilibrium value. Land surface warming in response to imposed SST change (with unchanged CO2) is slower. Tropospheric warming is advected inland from the sea, and over land it occurs at all levels together rather than spreading upward from the surface. The atmospheric response to prescribed SST change in about 20 days is statistically consistent with the equilibrium value, and the warming is largest in the upper troposphere over both land and sea. The land surface warming involves reduction of cloud cover and increased downward shortwave radiation, as in the experiment with CO2 change, but in this case it is due to the restriction of moisture supply to the land (indicated by reduced soil moisture), whereas in the CO2 forcing experiment it is due to restricted evaporation despite increased moisture supply (indicated by increased soil moisture). The warming over land in response to SST change is greater than over the sea and is the dominant contribution to the land–sea warming contrast under enhanced CO2 forcing.

A regime view of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its response to anthropogenic forcing

The distribution of the daily wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is significantly negatively skewed. Dynamical and statistical analyses both suggest that this skewness reflects the presence of two distinct regimes—referred to as “Greenland blocking” and “subpolar jet.” Changes in both the relative occurrence and in the structure of the regimes are shown to contribute to the long-term NAO trend over the ERA-40 period. This is contrasted with the simulation of the NAO in 100-yr control and doubled CO2 integrations of the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). The model has clear deficiencies in its simulation of the NAO in the control run, so its predictions of future behavior must be treated with caution. However, the subpolar jet regime does become more dominant under anthropogenic forcing and, while this change is small it is clearly statistically significant and does represent a real change in the nature of NAO variability in the model.