Protected area networks and savannah bird biodiversity in the face of climate change and land degradation

The extent to which climate change might diminish the efficacy of protected areas is one of the most pressing conservation questions. Many projections suggest that climate-driven species distribution shifts will leave protected areas impoverished and species inadequately protected while other evidence suggests that intact ecosystems within protected areas will be resilient to change. Here, we tackle this problem empirically. We show how recent changes in distribution of 139 Tanzanian savannah bird species are linked to climate change, protected area status and land degradation. We provide the first evidence of climate-driven range shifts for an African bird community. Our results suggest that the continued maintenance of existing protected areas is an appropriate conservation response to the challenge of climate and environmental change.

Expression pattern of cellular nucleic acid-binding protein (CNBP) during embryogenesis and spermatogenesis of gibel carp

By differential screening, we cloned the CagCNBP, demonstrated its predominant expression in ovary and testis, and reported its development behavior during folliculogenesis and oogenesis by immunofluorescence localization (Liu and Gui, Gene 365:181-192, 2005), but its developmental behavior during spermatogenesis and its transcript distribution during embryogenesis are not revealed. In the present study, by in situ hybridization, we analyze CagCNBP expression pattern during gibel carp embryogenesis. The CagCNBP transcripts ubiquitously distributed in all embryonic cells in early developmental stage embryos, and peak in midbrain, hindbrain and somites of gibel carp larva during organogenesis. By antibody detection, we reveal CagCNBP protein distribution change during spermatogenesis. The cell-specific distribution of CagCNBP is revealed by immunofluorescence staining, and predominant CagCNBP expression in testis somatic cells and spermatogonia is demonstrated in this paper. For the first time, the CNBP distribution during spermatogenesis in vertebrate has been revealed.

Cambios en la distribución del espacio poroso debidos al sistema de labranza y al tránsito en un hapludol típico de la región subhúmeda Argentina

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Dynamic melting model for small samples in cold crucible

Purpose – A small size cold crucible offers possibilities for melting various electrically conducting materials with a minimal wall contact. Such small samples can be used for express contamination analysis, preparing limited amounts of reactive alloys or experimental material analyses. Aims to present a model to follow the melting process. Design/methodology/approach – The presents a numerical model in which different types of axisymmetric coil configurations are analysed. Findings – The presented numerical model permits dynamically to follow the melting process, the high-frequency magnetic field distribution change, the free surface and the melting front evolution, and the associated turbulent fluid dynamics. The partially solidified skin on the contact to the cold crucible walls and bottom is dynamically predicted. The segmented crucible shape is either cylindrical, hemispherical or arbitrary shaped. Originality/value – The model presented within the paper permits the analysis of melting times, melt shapes, electrical efficiency and particle tracks.

Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed for differences between impact models. Projections of change from a baseline period (1981-2010) to the future (2070-2099) from 12 impacts models which contributed to the hydrological and biomes sectors of ISI-MIP were studied. The biome models differed from the hydrological models by the inclusion of CO2 impacts and most also included a dynamic vegetation distribution. The biome and hydrological models agreed on the sign of runoff change for most regions of the world. However, in West Africa, the hydrological models projected drying, and the biome models a moistening. The biome models tended to produce larger increases and smaller decreases in regionally averaged runoff than the hydrological models, although there is large inter-model spread. The timing of runoff change was similar, but there were differences in magnitude, particularly at peak runoff. The impact of vegetation distribution change was much smaller than the projected change over time, while elevated CO2 had an effect as large as the magnitude of change over time projected by some models in some regions. The effect of CO2 on runoff was not consistent across the models, with two models showing increases and two decreases. There was also more spread in projections from the runs with elevated CO2 than with constant CO2. The biome models which gave increased runoff from elevated CO2 were also those which differed most from the hydrological models. Spatially, regions with most difference between model types tended to be projected to have most effect from elevated CO2, and seasonal differences were also similar, so elevated CO2 can partly explain the differences between hydrological and biome model runoff change projections. Therefore, this shows that a range of impact models should be considered to give the full range of uncertainty in impacts studies.

Alcoholic liver disease in the elderly

Although per capita alcohol consumption, and thus the prevalence of alcoholic liver disease, decreases generally with age in Europe and in the United States, recently an increase in alcohol consumption has been reported in individuals over 65 years. Reasons explaining this observation may include an increase in life expectancy or a loss of life partners and, thus, loneliness and depression. Although ethanol metabolism and ethanol distribution change with age, and an elderly person's liver is more susceptible to the toxic effect of ethanol, the spectrum of alcoholic liver diseases and their symptoms and signs is similar to that seen in patients of all ages. However, prognosis of alcoholic liver disease in the elderly is poor. In addition, chronic alcohol consumption may enhance drug associated liver disease and may also act as a cofactor in other liver diseases, such as viral hepatitis and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

Estimation of the Traffic Intensity in a Piecewise-stationary Mt/Gt/1 Queue with Probing

We use a probing strategy to estimate the time dependent traffic intensity in an Mt/Gt/1 queue, where the arrival rate and the general service-time distribution change from one time interval to another, and derive statistical properties of the proposed estimator. We present a method to detect a switch from a stationary interval to another using a sequence of probes to improve the estimation. At the end, we compare our results with two estimators proposed in the literature for the M/G/1 queue.

Rates of change : digital distribution as a disruptive technology in the film industry

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Rates of change : online distribution as disruptive technology in the film industry

Much debate in media and communication studies is based on exaggerated opposition between the digital sublime and the digital abject: overly enthusiastic optimism versus determined pessimism over the potential of new technologies. This inhibits the discipline's claims to provide rigorous insight into industry and social change which is, after all, continuous. Instead of having to decide one way or the other, we need to ask how we study the process of change.This article examines the impact of online distribution in the film industry, particularly addressing the question of rates of change. Are there genuinely new players disrupting the established oligopoly, and if so with what effect? Is there evidence of disruption to, and innovation in, business models? Has cultural change been forced on the incumbents? Outside mainstream Hollywood, where are the new opportunities and the new players? What is the situation in Australia?

Mapping the arts: Industry concentrations, distribution, and change in the US, 1980-2010

This paper studies arts industries in all 366 US metropolitan statistical areas between 1980 and 2010. Our analysis provides evidence that the arts are an important component of many regional economies, but also highlights their volatility. After radical growth and diffusion between 1980 and 2000, in the last decade, the arts industries are defined more by shrinkage and reconcentration in fewer metropolitan areas. Further, we find that the vast majority of metros have strengths in particular sets of arts industries. As we discuss in the conclusion, these conditions present challenges and opportunities for urban cultural policy that goes beyond the current focus on the arts as consumption amenities.

Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Despite high vulnerability, the impact of climate change on Himalayan ecosystem has not been properly investigated, primarily due to the inadequacy of observed data and the complex topography. In this study, we mapped the current vegetation distribution in Kashmir Himalayas from NOAA AVHRR and projected it under A1B SRES, RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 climate scenarios using the vegetation dynamics model-IBIS at a spatial resolution of 0.5A degrees. The distribution of vegetation under the changing climate was simulated for the 21st century. Climate change projections from the PRECIS experiment using the HADRM3 model, for the Kashmir region, were validated using the observed climate data from two observatories. Both the observed as well as the projected climate data showed statistically significant trends. IBIS was validated for Kashmir Himalayas by comparing the simulated vegetation distribution with the observed distribution. The baseline simulated scenario of vegetation (1960-1990), showed 87.15 % agreement with the observed vegetation distribution, thereby increasing the credibility of the projected vegetation distribution under the changing climate over the region. According to the model projections, grasslands and tropical deciduous forests in the region would be severely affected while as savannah, shrubland, temperate evergreen broadleaf forest, boreal evergreen forest and mixed forest types would colonize the area currently under the cold desert/rock/ice land cover types. The model predicted that a substantial area of land, presently under the permanent snow and ice cover, would disappear by the end of the century which might severely impact stream flows, agriculture productivity and biodiversity in the region.

The characteristics of distribution and change of the seawater temperature and salinity of Cai river estuary and Northern Part of Nha Trang bay in the dry and rainy season

In this paper, some results of analyzing the hydrographic characteristics of the seawater temperature and salinity are presented. The received results showed that: in dry season, the influence of the Cai river water has is limited in Cai river estuary with the approximate transferable distance from the river mouth to the open sea of about 1 km. The isohaline 32%o could be defined as the separate boundary of the Cai river water; In rainy season, due to the river water discharges are high, the influence of Cai river water could be transferred to the open sea and island areas. The immerge of the Cai river water in the open sea areas in rainy season has changed the vertical structure of salinity and temperature in the northern part of Nhatrang bay. In both seasons, the Cai river water have influenced in the surface water layers 0 - 2m and the water layers deeper than 2m are influenced by the sea waters with the salinity of higher than 32%o.