Modeling and mitigation of supply-demand mismatches

In this thesis, I develop analytical models to price the value of supply chain investments under demand uncer¬tainty. This thesis includes three self-contained papers. In the first paper, we investigate the value of lead-time reduction under the risk of sudden and abnormal changes in demand forecasts. We first consider the risk of a complete and permanent loss of demand. We then provide a more general jump-diffusion model, where we add a compound Poisson process to a constant-volatility demand process to explore the impact of sudden changes in demand forecasts on the value of lead-time reduction. We use an Edgeworth series expansion to divide the lead-time cost into that arising from constant instantaneous volatility, and that arising from the risk of jumps. We show that the value of lead-time reduction increases substantially in the intensity and/or the magnitude of jumps. In the second paper, we analyze the value of quantity flexibility in the presence of supply-chain dis- intermediation problems. We use the multiplicative martingale model and the "contracts as reference points" theory to capture both positive and negative effects of quantity flexibility for the downstream level in a supply chain. We show that lead-time reduction reduces both supply-chain disintermediation problems and supply- demand mismatches. We furthermore analyze the impact of the supplier's cost structure on the profitability of quantity-flexibility contracts. When the supplier's initial investment cost is relatively low, supply-chain disin¬termediation risk becomes less important, and hence the contract becomes more profitable for the retailer. We also find that the supply-chain efficiency increases substantially with the supplier's ability to disintermediate the chain when the initial investment cost is relatively high. In the third paper, we investigate the value of dual sourcing for the products with heavy-tailed demand distributions. We apply extreme-value theory and analyze the effects of tail heaviness of demand distribution on the optimal dual-sourcing strategy. We find that the effects of tail heaviness depend on the characteristics of demand and profit parameters. When both the profit margin of the product and the cost differential between the suppliers are relatively high, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing both the inventory level and the responsive capacity as demand uncertainty increases. In that case, however, both the optimal inventory level and the optimal responsive capacity decrease as the tail of demand becomes heavier. When the profit margin of the product is relatively high, and the cost differential between the suppliers is relatively low, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing the responsive capacity and reducing the inventory level as the demand uncertainty increases. In that case, how¬ever, it is optimal to buffer with more inventory and less capacity as the tail of demand becomes heavier. We also show that the optimal responsive capacity is higher for the products with heavier tails when the fill rate is extremely high.

How The Web Devalues Creativity

By lowering the barriers to communication, the Web has not made it possible for writers to make more money; instead large corporate aggregators are taking advantage of creators to make themselves rich. MaryAnn Johanson is the creator of one of the oldest independent film review sites on the web (flickfilosopher.com). In this lecture she addresses the problems of the long tail for the long tailees. How can a creative professional make a living through the Web, when all the power is held by the aggregators? So much for radical disintermediation... This share contains the lecture slides (see slide #29-30 for the summary of her argument), the lecture audio, further reading, a link to her web site and a critique of The Longer Tail from students at another Web Science Trust Network lab.

Airline distribution

Distribution - Factors affecting distribution strategy • Airlines drive to reduce costs - Distribution has been around 20% of operating costs • Airlines wishing to have more direct contact with their clients • Technology has provided the possibility of a direct channel between the airline and its customers • Disintermediation - as airlines doubt the ability of agents to influence customers’ choice • GDSs fees • Large corporates are more professional in the way they purchase travel products

The performance of open-end Brazilian fixed income mutual funds for retail clients

From a financial perspective, this dissertation analyzes the Brazilian mutual fund industry performance for an average retail client. The most representative funds for the local population, that are the fixed income open-end ones, will be selected and their performance will be measured aiming to answer if clients of this industry obtained a proper return over their investments in the period between August 2010 and August 2013. A proper return will be understood as the preservation of the purchasing power of the individual´s savings, what is achieved with a positive performance of a mutual fund after discounting taxes, administrative fees and inflation. After obtaining an answer for the previous question, this dissertation will explore a possible alternative solution: Tesouro Direto, that is an example of a financial approach that could foster the disintermediation between savings and investments through electronic channels. New electronic platforms, with a broader scope, could be utilized to increase the efficiency of funding productive investments through better remunerating Brazilian savings. Tesouro Direto may point towards a new paradigm.

Distributed ledger technologies between anonymity and transparency: AML/CFT regulation of cryptocurrency ecosystems in the EU

The advent of Bitcoin suggested a disintermediated economy in which Internet users can take part directly. The conceptual disruption brought about by this Internet of Money (IoM) mirrors the cross-industry impacts of blockchain and distributed ledger technologies (DLTs). While related instances of non-centralisation thwart regulatory efforts to establish accountability, in the financial domain further challenges arise from the presence in the IoM of two seemingly opposing traits: anonymity and transparency. Indeed, DLTs are often described as architecturally transparent, but the perceived level of anonymity of cryptocurrency transfers fuels fears of illicit exploitation. This is a primary concern for the framework to prevent money laundering and the financing of terrorism and proliferation (AML/CFT/CPF), and a top priority both globally and at the EU level. Nevertheless, the anonymous and transparent features of the IoM are far from clear-cut, and the same is true for its levels of disintermediation and non-centralisation. Almost fifteen years after the first Bitcoin transaction, the IoM today comprises a diverse set of socio-technical ecosystems. Building on an analysis of their phenomenology, this dissertation shows how there is more to their traits of anonymity and transparency than it may seem, and how these features range across a spectrum of combinations and degrees. In this context, trade-offs can be evaluated by referring to techno-legal benchmarks, established through socio-technical assessments grounded on teleological interpretation. Against this backdrop, this work provides framework-level recommendations for the EU to respond to the twofold nature of the IoM legitimately and effectively. The methodology cherishes the mutual interaction between regulation and technology when drafting regulation whose compliance can be eased by design. This approach mitigates the risk of overfitting in a fast-changing environment, while acknowledging specificities in compliance with the risk-based approach that sits at the core of the AML/CFT/CPF regime.