Disease risk and mortality prediction in intensive care patients with pneumonia. Australian and New Zealand practice in intensive care (ANZPIC II)

This study of ventilated patients investigated pneumonia risk factors and outcome predictors in 476 episodes of pneumonia (48% community-acquired pneumonia, 24% hospital-acquired pneumonia, 28% ventilator-associated pneumonia) using a prospective survey in 14 intensive care units within Australia and New Zealand. For community acquired pneumonia, mortality increased with immunosuppression (OR 5.32, CI 95% 1.58-17.99, P < 0. 01), clinical signs of consolidation (OR 2.43, CI 95% 1.09-5.44, P = 0. 03) and Sepsis-Related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores (OR 1.19, CI 95% 1.08-1.30, P < 0. 001) but improved if appropriate antibiotic changes were made within three days of intensive care unit admission (OR 0.42, CI 95% 0.20-0.86, P = 0.02). For hospital-acquired pneumonia, immunosuppression (OR 6.98, CI 95% 1.16-42.2, P = 0.03) and non-metastatic cancer (OR 3.78, CI 95% 1.20-11.93, P = 0.02) were the principal mortality predictors. Alcoholism (OR 7.80, CI 95% 1.20-1750, P < 0.001), high SOFA scores (OR 1.44, CI 95% 1.20-1.75, P = 0.001) and the isolation of high risk organisms including Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Acinetobacter spp, Stenotrophomonas spp and methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (OR 4.79, CI 95% 1.43-16.03, P = 0.01), were associated with increased mortality in ventilator-associated pneumonia. The use of non-invasive ventilation was independently protective against mortality for patients with community-acquired and hospital-acquired pneumonia (OR 0.35, CI 95% 0.18-0.68, P = 0.002). Mortality was similar for patients requiting both invasive and non-invasive ventilation and non-invasive ventilation alone (21% compared with 20% respectively, P = 0.56). Pneumonia risks and mortality predictors in Australian and New Zealand ICUs vary with pneumonia type. A history of alcoholism is a major risk factor for mortality in ventilator-associated pneumonia, greater in magnitude than the mortality effect of immunosuppression in hospital-acquired pneumonia or community-acquired pneumonia. Non-invasive ventilation is associated with reduced ICU mortality. Clinical signs of consolidation worsen, while rationalising antibiotic therapy within three days of ICU admission improves mortality for community-acquired pneumonia patients.

Early detection : a strategy to reduce risk and severity?

Despite changes in surgical techniques, radiotherapy targeting and the apparent earlier detection of cancers, secondary lymphoedema is still a significant problem for about 20–30% of those who receive treatment for cancer, although the incidence and prevalence does seem to be falling. The figures above generally relate to detection of an enlarged limb or other area, but it seems that about 60% of all patients also suffer other problems with how the limb feels, what can or cannot be done with it and a range of social or psychological issues. Often these ‘subjective’ changes occur before the objective ones, such as a change in arm volume or circumference. For most of those treated for cancer lymphoedema does not develop immediately, and, while about 60–70% develop it in the first few years, some do not develop lymphoedema for up to 15 or 20 years. Those who will develop clinically manifest lymphoedema in the future are, for some time, in a latent or hidden phase of lymphoedema. There also seems to be some risk factors which are indicators for a higher likelihood of lymphoedema post treatment, including oedema at the surgical site, arm dominance, age, skin conditions, and body mass index (BMI).

Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital.

Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions.

The role of uncomposted materials, composts, manures, and compost extracts in reducing pest and disease incidence and severity in sustainable temperate agricultural and horticultural crop production - A review

This review evaluates evidence of the impact of uncomposted plant residues, composts, manures, and liquid preparations made from composts (compost extracts and teas) on pest and disease incidence and severity in agricultural and horticultural crop production. Most reports on pest control using such organic amendments relate to tropical or and climates. The majority of recent work on the use of organic amendments for prevention and control of diseases relates to container-produced plants, particularly ornamentals. However, there is growing interest in the potential for using composts to prevent and control diseases in temperate agricultural and horticultural field crops and information concerning their use and effectiveness is slowly increasing. The impact of uncomposted plant residues, composts, manures, and compost extracts/teas on pests and diseases is discussed in relation to sustainable temperate field and protected cropping systems. The factors affecting efficacy or such organic amendments in preventing and controlling pests and disease are examined and the mechanisms through which control is achieved are described.

Farmers’ attitudes to disease risk management in England: a comparative analysis of sheep and pig farmers

The UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) identified practices to reduce the risk of animal disease outbreaks. We report on the response of sheep and pig farmers in England to promotion of these practices. A conceptual framework was established from research on factors influencing adoption of animal health practices, linking knowledge, attitudes, social influences and perceived constraints to the implementation of specific practices. Qualitative data were collected from nine sheep and six pig enterprises in 2011. Thematic analysis explored attitudes and responses to the proposed practices, and factors influencing the likelihood of implementation. Most feel they are doing all they can reasonably do to minimise disease risk and that practices not being implemented are either not relevant or ineffective. There is little awareness and concern about risk from unseen threats. Pig farmers place more emphasis than sheep farmers on controlling wildlife, staff and visitor management and staff training. The main factors that influence livestock farmers’ decision on whether or not to implement a specific disease risk measure are: attitudes to, and perceptions of, disease risk; attitudes towards the specific measure and its efficacy; characteristics of the enterprise which they perceive as making a measure impractical; previous experience of a disease or of the measure; and the credibility of information and advice. Great importance is placed on access to authoritative information with most seeing vets as the prime source to interpret generic advice from national bodies in the local context. Uptake of disease risk measures could be increased by: improved risk communication through the farming press and vets to encourage farmers to recognise hidden threats; dissemination of credible early warning information to sharpen farmers’ assessment of risk; and targeted information through training events, farming press, vets and other advisers, and farmer groups, tailored to the different categories of livestock farmer.

The association of single nucleotide polymorphisms with endometrial cancer risk and prognosis

Endometrial cancer is one of the most common female diseases in developed nations and is the most commonly diagnosed gynaecological cancer in Australia. The disease is commonly classified by histology: endometrioid or non-endometrioid endometrial cancer. While non-endometrioid endometrial cancers are accepted to be high-grade, aggressive cancers, endometrioid cancers (comprising 80% of all endometrial cancers diagnosed) generally carry a favourable patient prognosis. However, endometrioid endometrial cancer patients endure significant morbidity due to surgery and radiotherapy used for disease treatment, and patients with recurrent disease have a 5-year survival rate of less than 50%. Genetic analysis of women with endometrial cancer could uncover novel markers associated with disease risk and/or prognosis, which could then be used to identify women at high risk and for the use of specialised treatments. Proteases are widely accepted to play an important role in the development and progression of cancer. This PhD project hypothesised that SNPs from two protease gene families, the matrix metalloproteases (MMPs, including their tissue inhibitors, TIMPs) and the tissue kallikrein-related peptidases (KLKs) would be associated with endometrial cancer susceptibility and/or prognosis. In the first part of this study, optimisation of the genotyping techniques was performed. Results from previously published endometrial cancer genetic association studies were attempted to be validated in a large, multicentre replication set (maximum cases n = 2,888, controls n = 4,483, 3 studies). The rs11224561 progesterone receptor SNP (PGR, A/G) was observed to be associated with increased endometrial cancer risk (per A allele OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.12-1.53; p-trend = 0.001), a result which was initially reported among a Chinese sample set. Previously reported associations for the remaining 8 SNPs investigated for this section of the PhD study were not confirmed, thereby reinforcing the importance of validation of genetic association studies. To examine the effect of SNPs from the MMP and KLK families on endometrial cancer risk, we selected the most significantly associated MMP and KLK SNPs from genome-wide association study analysis (GWAS) to be genotyped in the GWAS replication set (cases n = 4,725, controls n = 9,803, 13 studies). The significance of the MMP24 rs932562 SNP was unchanged after incorporation of the stage 2 samples (Stage 1 per allele OR 1.18, p = 0.002; Combined Stage 1 and 2 OR 1.09, p = 0.002). The rs10426 SNP, located 3' to KLK10 was predicted by bioinformatic analysis to effect miRNA binding. This SNP was observed in the GWAS stage 1 result to exhibit a recessive effect on endometrial cancer risk, a result which was not validated in the stage 2 sample set (Stage 1 OR 1.44, p = 0.007; Combined Stage 1 and 2 OR 1.14, p = 0.08). Investigation of the regions imputed surrounding the MMP, TIMP and KLK genes did not reveal any significant targets for further analysis. Analysis of the case data from the endometrial cancer GWAS to identify genetic variation associated with cancer grade did not reveal SNPs from the MMP, TIMP or KLK genes to be statistically significant. However, the representation of SNPs from the MMP, TIMP and KLK families by the GWAS genotyping platform used in this PhD project was examined and observed to be very low, with the genetic variation of four genes (MMP23A, MMP23B, MMP28 and TIMP1) not captured at all by this technique. This suggests that comprehensive candidate gene association studies will be required to assess the role of SNPs from these genes with endometrial cancer risk and prognosis. Meta-analysis of gene expression microarray datasets curated as part of this PhD study identified a number of MMP, TIMP and KLK genes to display differential expression by endometrial cancer status (MMP2, MMP10, MMP11, MMP13, MMP19, MMP25 and KLK1) and histology (MMP2, MMP11, MMP12, MMP26, MMP28, TIMP2, TIMP3, KLK6, KLK7, KLK11 and KLK12). In light of these findings these genes should be prioritised for future targeted genetic association studies. Two SNPs located 43.5 Mb apart on chromosome 15 were observed from the GWAS analysis to be associated with increased endometrial cancer grade, results that were validated in silico in two independent datasets. One of these SNPs, rs8035725 is located in the 5' untranslated region of a MYC promoter binding protein DENND4A (Stage 1 OR 1.15, p = 9.85 x 10P -5 P, combined Stage 1 and in silico validation OR 1.13, p = 5.24 x 10P -6 P). This SNP has previously been reported to alter the expression of PTPLAD1, a gene involved in the synthesis of very long fatty acid chains and in the Rac1 signaling pathway. Meta-analysis of gene expression microarray data found PTPLAD1 to display increased expression in the aggressive non-endometrioid histology compared with endometrioid endometrial cancer, suggesting that the causal SNP underlying the observed genetic association may influence expression of this gene. Neither rs8035725 nor significant SNPs identified by imputation were predicted bioinformatically to affect transcription factor binding sites, indicating that further studies are required to assess their potential effect on other regulatory elements. The other grade- associated SNP, rs6606792, is located upstream of an inferred pseudogene, ELMO2P1 (Stage 1 OR 1.12, p = 5 x 10P -5 P; combined Stage 1 and in silico validation OR 1.09, p = 3.56 x 10P -5 P). Imputation of the ±1 Mb region surrounding this SNP revealed a cluster of significantly associated variants which are predicted to abolish various transcription factor binding sites, and would be expected to decrease gene expression. ELMO2P1 was not included on the microarray platforms collected for this PhD, and so its expression could not be investigated. However, the high sequence homology of ELMO2P1 with ELMO2, a gene important to cell motility, indicates that ELMO2 could be the parent gene for ELMO2P1 and as such, ELMO2P1 could function to regulate the expression of ELMO2. Increased expression of ELMO2 was seen to be associated with increasing endometrial cancer grade, as well as with aggressive endometrial cancer histological subtypes by microarray meta-analysis. Thus, it is hypothesised that SNPs in linkage disequilibrium with rs6606792 decrease the transcription of ELMO2P1, reducing the regulatory effect of ELMO2P1 on ELMO2 expression. Consequently, ELMO2 expression is increased, cell motility is enhanced leading to an aggressive endometrial cancer phenotype. In summary, these findings have identified several areas of research for further study. The results presented in this thesis provide evidence that a SNP in PGR is associated with risk of developing endometrial cancer. This PhD study also reports two independent loci on chromosome 15 to be associated with increased endometrial cancer grade, and furthermore, genes associated with these SNPs to be differentially expressed according in aggressive subtypes and/or by grade. The studies reported in this thesis support the need for comprehensive SNP association studies on prioritised MMP, TIMP and KLK genes in large sample sets. Until these studies are performed, the role of MMP, TIMP and KLK genetic variation remains unclear. Overall, this PhD study has contributed to the understanding of genetic variation involvement in endometrial cancer susceptibility and prognosis. Importantly, the genetic regions highlighted in this study could lead to the identification of novel gene targets to better understand the biology of endometrial cancer and also aid in the development of therapeutics directed at treating this disease.

Weather-based prediction of anthracnose severity using artificial neural network models

Data were collected and analysed from seven field sites in Australia, Brazil and Colombia on weather conditions and the severity of anthracnose disease of the tropical pasture legume Stylosanthes scabra caused by Colletotrichum gloeosporioides. Disease severity and weather data were analysed using artificial neural network (ANN) models developed using data from some or all field sites in Australia and/or South America to predict severity at other sites. Three series of models were developed using different weather summaries. of these, ANN models with weather for the day of disease assessment and the previous 24 h period had the highest prediction success, and models trained on data from all sites within one continent correctly predicted disease severity in the other continent on more than 75% of days; the overall prediction error was 21.9% for the Australian and 22.1% for the South American model. of the six cross-continent ANN models trained on pooled data for five sites from two continents to predict severity for the remaining sixth site, the model developed without data from Planaltina in Brazil was the most accurate, with >85% prediction success, and the model without Carimagua in Colombia was the least accurate, with only 54% success. In common with multiple regression models, moisture-related variables such as rain, leaf surface wetness and variables that influence moisture availability such as radiation and wind on the day of disease severity assessment or the day before assessment were the most important weather variables in all ANN models. A set of weights from the ANN models was used to calculate the overall risk of anthracnose for the various sites. Sites with high and low anthracnose risk are present in both continents, and weather conditions at centres of diversity in Brazil and Colombia do not appear to be more conducive than conditions in Australia to serious anthracnose development.

Ross River virus disease clusters and spatial relationship with mosquito biting exposure in Redland Shire, southern Queensland, Australia

The spatial heterogeneity in the risk of Ross River virus (family Togaviridae, genus Alphavirus, RRV) disease, the most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia, was examined in Redland Shire in southern Queensland, Australia. Disease cases, complaints from residents of intense mosquito biting exposure, and human population data were mapped using a geographic information system. Surface maps of RRV disease age-sex standardized morbidity ratios and mosquito biting complaint morbidity ratios were created. To determine whether there was significant spatial variation in disease and complaint patterns, a spatial scan analysis method was used to test whether the number of cases and complaints was distributed according to underlying population at risk. Several noncontiguous areas in proximity to productive saline water habitats of Aedes vigilax (Skuse), a recognized vector of RRV, had higher than expected numbers of RRV disease cases and complaints. Disease rates in human populations in areas which had high numbers of adult Ae. vigilax in carbon dioxide- and octenol-baited light traps were up to 2.9 times those in areas that rarely had high numbers of mosquitoes. It was estimated that targeted control of adult Ae. vigilax in these high-risk areas could potentially reduce the RRV disease incidence by an average of 13.6%. Spatial correlation was found between RRV disease risk and complaints from residents of mosquito biting. Based on historical patterns of RRV transmission throughout Redland Shire and estimated future human population growth in areas with higher than average RRV disease incidence, it was estimated that RRV incidence rates will increase by 8% between 2001 and 2021. The use of arbitrary administrative areas that ranged in size from 4.6 to 318.3 km2, has the potential to mask any small scale heterogeneity in disease patterns. With the availability of georeferenced data sets and high-resolution imagery, it is becoming more feasible to undertake spatial analyses at relatively small scales.

Coral disease dynamics and environmental drivers in the northern Florida Keys and Lee Stocking Island, Bahamas

Coral reefs are experiencing declines worldwide and recently coral diseases have been identified as significant contributors to coral mortality. However, little is known regarding the factors that drive coral disease distributions and dynamics. Current knowledge of the organisms that cause coral diseases is also limited, with pathogens having been identified for only 5 of the 21 described coral diseases. The study presented here describes coral disease dynamics in terms of occurrence, prevalence, spatial distribution, and host species susceptibility from 2002--2004 on reefs of the Northern Florida Keys (NFK) and Lee Stocking Island (LSI) in the Bahamas' Exuma chain. In addition, this research investigated the influence of temperature, sediment, and nutrient availability on coral disease prevalence and severity. Finally, microbial communities associated with a polymicrobial disease, black band, were examined to address spatial and temporal variability. ^ Four scleractinian diseases were observed in repeated surveys conducted during June-August of each year: black band disease (BBD), white plague type 2 (WP), dark spots syndrome (DSS), and yellow band disease-(YBD). Coral disease prevalence was generally low in both the NFK and LSI as compared to epizootic levels reported previously in the NFK and other regions of the Caribbean. Disease prevalence and species susceptibility varied spatially and temporally. Massive framework species, including Siderastrea siderea, Colpophyllia natans, and Montastraea annularis, along with relatively smaller colonies of Meandrina meandrites and Dichocoenia stokesi, were most susceptible to disease. Temperature, sedimentation, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen were positively correlated with BBD infections. Furthermore, experimental nutrient enrichment exacerbated coral tissue loss to BBD both in situ and in vivo. Profiling of BBD microbial communities using length heterogeneity PCR revealed variation over space and time, with significantly distinct bacterial assemblages in the NFK, LSI, and US Virgin Islands. ^ This study contributes to knowledge of the relationship between coral diseases and the environment, and facilitates predictions regarding potential changes in coral reef communities under differing environmental conditions. Additionally, this research provides further understanding of coral disease dynamics at both the host and microbial pathogen levels.^

The influence of smoking status on malnutrition risk and 1-year mortality in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Introduction:  Smoking status in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been associated with a low body mass index (BMI) and reduced mid-arm muscle circumference (Cochrane & Afolabi, 2004). Individuals with COPD identified as malnourished have also been found to be twice as likely to die within 1 year compared to non-malnourished patients (Collins et al., 2010). Although malnutrition is both preventable and treatable, it is not clear what influence current smoking status, another modifiable risk factor, has on malnutrition risk. The current study aimed to establish the influence of smoking status on malnutrition risk and 1-year mortality in outpatients with COPD. Methods:  A prospective nutritional screening survey was carried out between July 2008 and May 2009 at a large teaching hospital (Southampton General Hospital) and a smaller community hospital within Hampshire (Lymington New Forest Hospital). In total, 424 outpatients with a diagnosis of COPD were routinely screened using the ‘Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool’, ‘MUST’ (Elia, 2003); 222 males, 202 females; mean (SD) age 73 (9.9) years; mean (SD) BMI 25.9 (6.4) kg m−2. Smoking status on the date of screening was obtained for 401 of the outpatients. Severity of COPD was assessed using the GOLD criteria, and social deprivation determined using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (Nobel et al., 2008). Results:  The overall prevalence of malnutrition (medium + high risk) was 22%, with 32% of current smokers at risk (who accounted for 19% of the total COPD population). In comparison, 19% of nonsmokers and ex-smokers were likely to be malnourished [odds ratio, 1.965; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.133–3.394; P = 0.015]. Smoking status remained an independent risk factor for malnutrition even after adjustment for age, social deprivation and disease-severity (odds ratio, 2.048; 95% CI, 1.085–3.866; P = 0.027) using binary logistic regression. After adjusting for age, disease severity, social deprivation, smoking status, malnutrition remained a significant predictor of 1-year mortality [odds ratio (medium + high risk versus low risk), 2.161; 95% CI, 1.021–4.573; P = 0.044], whereas smoking status did not (odds ratio for smokers versus ex-smokers + nonsmokers was 1.968; 95% CI, 0.788–4.913; P = 0.147). Discussion:  This study highlights the potential importance of combined nutritional support and smoking cessation in order to treat malnutrition. The close association between smoking status and malnutrition risk in COPD suggests that smoking is an important consideration in the nutritional management of malnourished COPD outpatients. Conclusions:  Smoking status in COPD outpatients is a significant independent risk factor for malnutrition and a weaker (nonsignificant) predictor of 1-year mortality. Malnutrition significantly predicted 1 year mortality. References:  Cochrane, W.J. & Afolabi, O.A. (2004) Investigation into the nutritional status, dietary intake and smoking habits of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. J. Hum. Nutr. Diet.17, 3–11. Collins, P.F., Stratton, R.J., Kurukulaaratchym R., Warwick, H. Cawood, A.L. & Elia, M. (2010) ‘MUST’ predicts 1-year survival in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Clin. Nutr.5, 17. Elia, M. (Ed) (2003) The ‘MUST’ Report. BAPEN. http://www.bapen.org.uk (accessed on March 30 2011). Nobel, M., McLennan, D., Wilkinson, K., Whitworth, A. & Barnes, H. (2008) The English Indices of Deprivation 2007. http://www.communities.gov.uk (accessed on March 30 2011).

Complexity of chronic asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: implications for risk assessment, and disease progression and control

Although assessment of asthma control is important to guide treatment, it is difficult since the temporal pattern and risk of exacerbations are often unpredictable. In this Review, we summarise the classic methods to assess control with unidimensional and multidimensional approaches. Next, we show how ideas from the science of complexity can explain the seemingly unpredictable nature of bronchial asthma and emphysema, with implications for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We show that fluctuation analysis, a method used in statistical physics, can be used to gain insight into asthma as a dynamic disease of the respiratory system, viewed as a set of interacting subsystems (eg, inflammatory, immunological, and mechanical). The basis of the fluctuation analysis methods is the quantification of the long-term temporal history of lung function parameters. We summarise how this analysis can be used to assess the risk of future asthma episodes, with implications for asthma severity and control both in children and adults.

The evolution of the Global Burden of Disease framework for disease, injury and risk factor quantification: Developing the evidence base for national, regional and global public health action

Reliable, comparable information about the main causes of disease and injury in populations, and how these are changing, is a critical input for debates about priorities in the health sector. Traditional sources of information about the descriptive epidemiology of diseases, injuries and risk factors are generally incomplete, fragmented and of uncertain reliability and comparability. Lack of a standardized measurement framework to permit comparisons across diseases and injuries, as well as risk factors, and failure to systematically evaluate data quality have impeded comparative analyses of the true public health importance of various conditions and risk factors. As a consequence the impact of major conditions and hazards on population health has been poorly appreciated, often leading to a lack of public health investment. Global disease and risk factor quantification improved dramatically in the early 1990s with the completion of the first Global Burden of Disease Study. For the first time, the comparative importance of over 100 diseases and injuries, and ten major risk factors, for global and regional health status could be assessed using a common metric (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) which simultaneously accounted for both premature mortality and the prevalence, duration and severity of the non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. As a consequence, mental health conditions and injuries, for which non-fatal outcomes are of particular significance, were identified as being among the leading causes of disease/injury burden worldwide, with clear implications for policy, particularly prevention. A major achievement of the Study was the complete global descriptive epidemiology, including incidence, prevalence and mortality, by age, sex and Region, of over 100 diseases and injuries. National applications, further methodological research and an increase in data availability have led to improved national, regional and global estimates for 2000, but substantial uncertainty around the disease burden caused by major conditions, including, HIV, remains. The rapid implementation of cost-effective data collection systems in developing countries is a key priority if global public policy to promote health is to be more effectively informed.

Comparison of moped, scooter and motorcycle crash risk and crash severity

The increased popularity of mopeds and motor scooters in Australia and elsewhere in the last decade has contributed substantially to the greater use of powered two-wheelers (PTWs) as a whole. As the exposure of mopeds and scooters has increased, so too has the number of reported crashes involving those PTW types, but there is currently little research comparing the safety of mopeds and, particularly, larger scooters with motorcycles. This study compared the crash risk and crash severity of motorcycles, mopeds and larger scooters in Queensland, Australia. Comprehensive data cleansing was undertaken to separate motorcycles, mopeds and larger scooters in police-reported crash data covering the five years to 30 June 2008. The crash rates of motorcycles (including larger scooters) and mopeds in terms of registered vehicles were similar over this period, although the moped crash rate showed a stronger downward trend. However, the crash rates in terms of distance travelled were nearly four times higher for mopeds than for motorcycles (including larger scooters). More comprehensive distance travelled data is needed to confirm these findings. The overall severity of moped and scooter crashes was significantly lower than motorcycle crashes but an ordered probit regression model showed that crash severity outcomes related to differences in crash characteristics and circumstances, rather than differences between PTW types per se. Greater motorcycle crash severity was associated with higher (>80 km/h) speed zones, horizontal curves, weekend, single vehicle and nighttime crashes. Moped crashes were more severe at night and in speed zones of 90 km/h or more. Larger scooter crashes were more severe in 70 km/h zones (than 60 km/h zones) but not in higher speed zones, and less severe on weekends than on weekdays. The findings can be used to inform potential crash and injury countermeasures tailored to users of different PTW types.

Prevalence of active foot disease and foot disease risk factors in a subacute inpatient rehabilitation facility: a cross-sectional prevalence study

Background Australian subacute inpatient rehabilitation facilities face significant challenges from the ageing population and the increasing burden of chronic disease. Foot disease complications are a negative consequence of many chronic diseases. With the rapid expansion of subacute rehabilitation inpatient services, it seems imperative to investigate the prevalence of foot disease and foot disease risk factors in this population. The primary aim of this cross-sectional study was to determine the prevalence of active foot disease and foot disease risk factors in a subacute inpatient rehabilitation facility. Methods Eligible participants were all adults admitted at least overnight into a large Australian subacute inpatient rehabilitation facility over two different four week periods. Consenting participants underwent a short non-invasive foot examination by a podiatrist utilising the validated Queensland Health High Risk Foot Form to collect data on age, sex, medical co-morbidity history, foot disease risk factor history and clinically diagnosed foot disease complications and foot disease risk factors. Descriptive statistics were used to determine the prevalence of clinically diagnosed foot disease complications, foot disease risk factors and groups of foot disease risk factors. Logistic regression analyses were used to investigate any associations between defined explanatory variables and appropriate foot disease outcome variables. Results Overall, 85 (88%) of 97 people admitted to the facility during the study periods consented; mean age 80 (±9) years and 71% were female. The prevalence (95% confidence interval) of participants with active foot disease was 11.8% (6.3 – 20.5), 32.9% (23.9 – 43.5) had multiple foot disease risk factors, and overall, 56.5% (45.9 – 66.5) had at least one foot disease risk factor. A self-reported history of peripheral neuropathy diagnosis was independently associated with having multiple foot disease risk factors (OR 13.504, p = 0.001). Conclusion This study highlights the potential significance of the burden of foot disease in subacute inpatient rehabilitation facilities. One in eight subacute inpatients were admitted with active foot disease and one in two with at least one foot disease risk factor in this study. It is recommended that further multi-site studies and management guidelines are required to address the foot disease burden in subacute inpatient rehabilitation facilities. Keywords: Subacute; Inpatient; Foot; Complication; Prevalence