Discounting future pain: Effects on self-reported pain

Empirical results are presented showing that people who acknowledge pain anticipation when expecting an injury experience higher sensitivity to pain (GREP, Robinson et al., 2001). The positive correlation between sensitivity and anticipation is highly significant. However, no relationship is found between anticipation and pain endurance.

Time discounting (delta) and pain anticipation: Experimental evidence

To be published in: Revista Internacional de Sociología (2011), Special Issue on Experimental and Behavioral Economics.

Consumption and portfolio rules whit stochastic hyperbolic discounting

We extend the classic Merton (1969, 1971) problem that investigates the joint consumption-savings and portfolio-selection problem under capital risk by assuming sophisticated but time-inconsistent agents. We introduce stochastic hyperbolic preferences as in Harris and Laibson (2013) and find closed-form solutions for Merton's optimal consumption and portfolio selection problem in continuous time. We find that the portfolio rule remains identical to the time-consistent solution with power utility and no borrowing constraints. However,the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth is unambiguously greater than the time-consistent, exponential case and,importantly, it is also more responsive to changes in risk. These results suggest that hyperbolic discounting with sophisticated agents offers promise for contributing to explaining important aspects of asset market data.

Discounting the value of natural resources in costbenefit analysis: a case study for policy making

4 p.

The Equivalency Principle for Discounting the Value of Natural Assets: An Application to an Investment Project in the Basque Coast

25 p.

Does temporal discounting explain unhealthy behavior? A systematic review and reinforcement learning perspective.

The tendency to make unhealthy choices is hypothesized to be related to an individual's temporal discount rate, the theoretical rate at which they devalue delayed rewards. Furthermore, a particular form of temporal discounting, hyperbolic discounting, has been proposed to explain why unhealthy behavior can occur despite healthy intentions. We examine these two hypotheses in turn. We first systematically review studies which investigate whether discount rates can predict unhealthy behavior. These studies reveal that high discount rates for money (and in some instances food or drug rewards) are associated with several unhealthy behaviors and markers of health status, establishing discounting as a promising predictive measure. We secondly examine whether intention-incongruent unhealthy actions are consistent with hyperbolic discounting. We conclude that intention-incongruent actions are often triggered by environmental cues or changes in motivational state, whose effects are not parameterized by hyperbolic discounting. We propose a framework for understanding these state-based effects in terms of the interplay of two distinct reinforcement learning mechanisms: a "model-based" (or goal-directed) system and a "model-free" (or habitual) system. Under this framework, while discounting of delayed health may contribute to the initiation of unhealthy behavior, with repetition, many unhealthy behaviors become habitual; if health goals then change, habitual behavior can still arise in response to environmental cues. We propose that the burgeoning development of computational models of these processes will permit further identification of health decision-making phenotypes.

Discounting the Benefits of Climate Change Policies Using Uncertain Rates

Evaluating environmental policies, such as the mitigation of greenhouse gases, frequently requires balancing near-term mitigation costs against long-term environmental benefits. Conventional approaches to valuing such investments hold interest rates constant, but the authors contend that there is a real degree of uncertainty in future interest rates. This leads to a higher valuation of future benefits relative to conventional methods that ignore interest rate uncertainty.

Discounting the distant future: How much do uncertain rates increase valuations?

We demonstrate that when the future path of the discount rate is uncertain and highly correlated, the distant future should be discounted at significantly lower rates than suggested by the current rate. We then use two centuries of US interest rate data to quantify this effect. Using both random walk and mean-reverting models, we compute the "certainty-equivalent rate" that summarizes the effect of uncertainty and measures the appropriate forward rate of discount in the future. Under the random walk model we find that the certainty-equivalent rate falls continuously from 4% to 2% after 100 years, 1% after 200 years, and 0.5% after 300 years. At horizons of 400 years, the discounted value increases by a factor of over 40,000 relative to conventional discounting. Applied to climate change mitigation, we find that incorporating discount rate uncertainty almost doubles the expected present value of mitigation benefits. © 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Effect of Addiction Modeling Reinforcement Schedules on Delay Discounting

Elevated delay discounting, in which delayed rewards quickly lose value as a function of time, is associated with substance use and abuse. Currently, the direction of causation is unclear: while some research indicates that elevated delay discounting leads to future substance use, it is also possible that chronic substance use and specifically the rate of reinforcement associated with drug use, leads to elevated delay discounting. This project aims to examine the latter possibility. 47 participants completed ten 30-minute daily sessions of a visual attention task, and were reinforced at a rate intended to model drug use (fixed ratio 1) or drug abstinence (fixed ratio 10). Baseline and post-training rates of delay discounting were assessed for hypothetical $50 and $1000. Area under the curve of the indifference points as a function of delay was calculated. A greater area under the curve suggests more self-control, whereas a lower value represents more impulsiveness. Results at the monetary value of both $50 and $1000 showed increased impulsivity in relation to the control for both the FR1 and FR10 groups indicating that the two schedules may both model drug use.

Good things come to those who wait:Time discounting differences between adult offenders and nonoffenders

Criminal behavior has been explained by the idea that offenders have a lack of self-control. Yet, Wilson and Daly reported that juvenile offenders exhibit time-discounting tendencies similar to those of nonoffending juveniles. As no previous study has compared time-discounting behavior of adult offenders with nonoffenders, we raise the question, do adult offenders exhibit shorter time horizons or the tendency to discount future rewards? To answer this question, 89 offenders (ex-prisoners and prisoners) and 106 nonoffenders completed a time-discounting measure containing 27 different monetary choices. Our results show that, counter to findings with juvenile offenders, adult offenders (ex-prisoners) exhibit significantly shorter time horizons and discount more than nonoffenders as delayed payoffs increase to medium and large rewards. Furthermore, both offenders and nonoffenders are less likely to discount as the reward of future gains increases to medium and large.

Application of Evidence Theory and Discounting Techniques to Aerospace Design

Critical decisions are made by decision-makers throughout
the life-cycle of large-scale projects. These decisions are crucial as they
have a direct impact upon the outcome and the success of projects. To aid
decision-makers in the decision making process we present an evidential
reasoning framework. This approach utilizes the Dezert-Smarandache
theory to fuse heterogeneous evidence sources that suffer from levels
of uncertainty, imprecision and conflicts to provide beliefs for decision
options. To analyze the impact of source reliability and priority upon
the decision making process, a reliability discounting technique and a
priority discounting technique, are applied. A maximal consistent subset
is constructed to aid in dening where discounting should be applied.
Application of the evidential reasoning framework is illustrated using a
case study based in the Aerospace domain.

Immigrant Returns to Education and Experience: Analysis of Skill Discounting in Canada.

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Contingency management effects on delay discounting among patients receiving smoking cessation treatment

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