The determinants of social spending in Spain (1880-1960): Is Lindert right?

[spa] El principal objetivo de este artículo se centra en analizar los orígenes del Estado de Bienestar en España a partir del marco teórico elaborado por Peter Lindert. Con este fin, se ofrece un análisis econométrico de los factores que determinaron la evolución del gasto social público en este país entre 1880 y 1960. Utilizando nueva evidencia cuantitativa, se construyó un panel de datos por quinquenios con el porcentaje de gasto social respecto al PIB desagregado en tres partidas: sanidad, seguridad social y beneficencia. El análisis permite insertar el caso español en el debate internacional y los resultados revelan interesantes singularidades de este país.

The determinants of social spending in Spain (1880-1960): Is Lindert right?

[spa] El principal objetivo de este artículo se centra en analizar los orígenes del Estado de Bienestar en España a partir del marco teórico elaborado por Peter Lindert. Con este fin, se ofrece un análisis econométrico de los factores que determinaron la evolución del gasto social público en este país entre 1880 y 1960. Utilizando nueva evidencia cuantitativa, se construyó un panel de datos por quinquenios con el porcentaje de gasto social respecto al PIB desagregado en tres partidas: sanidad, seguridad social y beneficencia. El análisis permite insertar el caso español en el debate internacional y los resultados revelan interesantes singularidades de este país.

The determinants of social spending in Spain, 1950-1980, Are dictatorships less redistributive?

[spa] La mayoría de estudios sobre el Estado del Bienestar, hasta el momento, se han centrado en países democráticos y ricos. Sin embargo, los países pobres y no democráticos han recibido mucha menos atención. Este artículo aporta nueva evidencia empírica sobre la evolución del gasto social en España y Portugal entre 1950 y 1980. A partir de ésta se ha podido analizar la relación entre dictaduras y redistribución, ya que ambos países sufrieron gobiernos no democráticos durante la mayor parte del periodo. Además del gasto social público y su clasificación por funciones, en este artículo se analiza también la forma de financiación de dicho gasto social.

The determinants of social spending in Spain, 1950-1980, Are dictatorships less redistributive?

[spa] La mayoría de estudios sobre el Estado del Bienestar, hasta el momento, se han centrado en países democráticos y ricos. Sin embargo, los países pobres y no democráticos han recibido mucha menos atención. Este artículo aporta nueva evidencia empírica sobre la evolución del gasto social en España y Portugal entre 1950 y 1980. A partir de ésta se ha podido analizar la relación entre dictaduras y redistribución, ya que ambos países sufrieron gobiernos no democráticos durante la mayor parte del periodo. Además del gasto social público y su clasificación por funciones, en este artículo se analiza también la forma de financiación de dicho gasto social.

Institutional Determinants of Military Spending

Drawing on a database for 1988-2006 containing information on 157 countries, we investigate the effects on military spending of government form, electoral rules, concentration of parliamentary parties, and ideology. From an OLS regression on pooled data, our results show that presidential democracies spend more than parliamentary systems on defense, whereas the presence of a plurality voting system will reduce the defense burden. Our findings suggest that, in contrast to theoretical predictions in the literature, institutions do not have the same impact on the provision of all public goods. We present as well evidence regarding the effect of ideology on defense spending.

Determinants of public education expenditure: Evidence from Indian states

Public education expenditure varies significantly across Indian states. Using data on sixteen Indian states from 2001-2010, the paper tries to identify the determinants of per capita education expenditure of state governments in India. The econometric findings indicate that richer states spend more on education compared to the poorer states. A lower share of child population (0-14 years) is found to significantly enhance education expenditure at the state level. We do not find any evidence that political factors such as political ideology of the ruling party and level of corruption affect education expenditure of state governments.

The drift of public spending towards the elderly: A generational analysis of the trend of public policies in Spain

The tendency for public welfare spending to be increasingly aimed at the elderly has been pointed out for the US and other developed countries. While population ageing is a common trend, it is not obvious why the shift in spending exceeds the trend in ageing, or why per capita spending on the elderly increases.We show that this is the case in Spain, identify the losers from this development, discuss the policies that underlie this trend, and propose adjustments based on Musgrave s fixed proportions rule as an inter-generationally fair distribution.

Yesterday’s Games: Contingency Learning and the Growth of Public Spending, 1890-1938

Neither democracy nor globalization can explain the doubling of the peacetime public share in many Western countries between World Wars I and II. Here we examine two other explanations that are consistent with the timing of the observed changes, namely, (1) a shift in the demand for public goods and (2) the effect of war on the willingness to share. We first model each of these approaches as a contingency-learning phenomenon within Schelling’s Multi-Person Dilemma. We then derive verifiable propositions from each hypothesis. National time series of public spending as a share of GNP reveal no unit root but a break in trend, a result shown to favor explanation (2) over (1).

The Effect of Public Spending on Consumption: Reconciling Theory and Evidence

Recent empirical evidence from vector autoregressions (VARs) suggests that public spending shocks increase (crowd in) private consumption. Standard general equilibrium models predict the opposite. We show that a standard real business cycle (RBC) model in which public spending is chosen optimally can rationalize the crowding-in effect documented in the VAR literature. When such a model is used as a data-generating process, a VAR estimated using the artificial data yields a positive consumption response to an increase in public spending, consistent with the empirical findings. This result holds regardless of whether private and public purchases are complements or substitutes.

Determinants of public support for European Enlargement : a comparative analysis of public attitudes toward the accession of Turkey and Poland

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Looking for a road to get out for poverty. Is the current allocation of public spending on education in Colombia helping?

This paper presents a methodology to explore the impact on poverty of the public spending on education. The methodology consists of two approaches: Benefit Incidence Analysis (BIA) and behavioral approach. BIA considers the cost and use of the educational service, and the distribution of the benefits among groups of income. Regarding the behavioral approach, we use a Probit model of schooling attendance, in order to determinethe influence of public spending on the probability for thepoor to attend the school. As a complement, a measurement of targeting errors in the allocation of public spending is included in the methodology.

Electoral and Financial Bookkeeping: A Comparison of Pre-Electoral Pledges on Public Spending and the Outcome of Post-Electoral Budget Debates

In the wake of the financial crisis, budgetary discipline has taken centre stage in politics. More than ever a country's budget mirrors the true policy preferences of the legislative majority beyond all political discourse and cheap talk. The paper sheds light on mandate fulfilment in the field of public spending and fiscal policy in general. Based on previous work on pledge fulfilment in Switzerland the paper compares publicised pre-electoral statements of MPs on public spending and the development of the public finances with their post-electoral legislative behaviour during budget debates and votes. The findings of the paper confirm the results of the aforementioned earlier studies and point to the potential of budgetary statements for future mandate fulfilment research.

Estimating the effect of discretionary spending on corruption: evidence from Brazilian municipalities

O presente artigo estuda a relação entre corrupção e discricionariedade do gasto público ao responder a seguinte pergunta: regras de licitação mais rígidas, uma proxy para discricionariedade, resultam em menor prevalência de corrupção nos municípios brasileiros? A estratégia empírica é uma aproximação de regressões em dois estágios (2SLS) estimadas localmente em cada transição de regras de licitação, cuja fonte de dados de corrupção é o Programa de Fiscalização por Sorteio da CGU e os dados sobre discricionariedade são derivados da Lei 8.666/93, responsável por regular os processos de compras e construção civil em todas as esferas de governo. Os resultados mostram, entretanto, que menor discricionariedade está relacionada com maior corrupção para quase todos os cortes impostos pela lei de licitações.

A közbeszerzés jogi és hatékonysági aspektusai (The legal and efficiency aspects of public procurement)

A közpénzelköltés hatékonyságát hazai viszonylatban az éves közpénzköltés nagyságával és az alkalmazott eljárástípusok, beszerzési tárgyak számával, értékével kapcsolatosan van lehetősége a hivatalos statisztikák elemzése során az érdeklődőnek vizsgálni. A törvény preambulumában található „a közpénzek ésszerű felhasználása átláthatóságának és széles körű nyilvános ellenőrizhetőségének megteremtése, továbbá a közbeszerzések során a verseny tisztaságának biztosítása” célrendszer csak részben érvényesül. A tanulmány arra kíván rávilágítani, hogy a hazai közbeszerzés-kutatás eredményei alapján milyen elképzelés van a GDP közel 5%-án hatékony elköltéséről Magyarországon. Vajon valódi akadálya-e a közbeszerzés a tisztességtelen versenynek, s elősegíti-e a piaci folyamatok érvényesülését annak szabályozása. A szerző válaszai rávilágítanak a közbeszerzési piaci folyamatok, gyengeségek, kevésbé hatékony megnyilvánulások és kritikus vélemények okaira, melyek közvetlen kapcsolatban vannak a közbeszerzés válságos helyzetével, s azonosítják azokat a kritikus pontokat, melyeken érdemes változtatni egy reménybeli hatékonyabb állapot, piaci egyensúlyi helyzet kialakítása érdekében. _______ The analysis of public spending can be based on official statistics showing the figures of annual public spending and the value and number of different procedures and purchased items. However, public procurement spending an annual amount of 1600-1800 billion HUF of public money in an ever changing legal environment, are intended to ensure not only some efficiency in public spending, but to reach several other aims as well. Although the preamble of the public procurement law states, that “a legal environment ought to be created, where the transparency and public accountability of spending public money and fair competition regarding public procurement procedures is ensured”, these requirements are only partially met. This study, based on the results of recent analyses concerning public procurement, wishes to represent our ideas about how to spend efficiently nearly 5% of the Hungarian GDP. Is it really true, that public procurement can be regarded as a genuine means against unfair competition, and can we really foster market processes by regulating public procurement? The author answers highlight the causes of the weaknesses of public procurement procedures, inefficient practices and critical opinions, which are closely connected to the present dire state of public procurement. This study also identifies the crucial elements to be changed in order to achieve a hopefully more efficient state and a preferable market balance.

Use of public oral health services by the adult population: a multilevel analysis

Background It is important to assess context to explain inequalities in oral health, particularly with regard to the type of service used; thus, this study aimed to identify the social determinants of public dental service use by adults and to assess whether, beyond the level individual, existing inequalities are also expressed in the context in which individuals are embedded. Methods A multilevel analysis with three levels of aggregation of variables was performed. The individual variables were derived from the database of the SB Minas Gerais project—a survey of oral health status of the population of Minas Gerais, a state of the Brazilian Southeast region. The variable at the neighborhood level came from the Census of 2010. The variables at the municipal level were obtained from available public databases relating to oral health services. At the municipal level, the Human Development Index (HDI) variable was chosen to represent quality of life in the municipalities. Results In the final model, the following individual variables were associated with greater use of public dental services: lower income (PR = 1.98, 95% CI = 1.53; 2.58), higher number of residents at home (PR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.11; 1.68) and higher number of teeth requiring treatment (PR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.20; 1.84). With regard to context variables, a poorer infrastructure (PR = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.40; 0.96) leads to a lower use of public services. Conclusion The use of public services is associated with family income, how this income is divided in households, the need for treatment presented by the individual and the organization of the existing oral health service infrastructure in the municipality.