Demographic Transitions: analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility

The effect of mortality reductions on fertility is one of the main mechanisms stressed by the recent growth literature in order to explain demographic transitions. We analyze the empirical relevance of this mechanism based on the experience of all countries since 1960. We distinguish between the effects on gross and net fertility, take into account the dynamic nature of the relationship and control for alternative explanatory factors and for endogeneity. Our results show that mortality plays a large role in fertility reductions, that the change in fertility behavior comes with a lag of about 10 years and that both net and gross fertility are affected. We find comparatively little support for explanations of the demographic transition based on economic development or technological change.

Demographic bottlenecks in tropical plant regeneration: A comparative analysis of causal influences

Mortality factors that act sequentially through the demographic transitions from seed to sapling may have critical effects on recruitment success. Understanding how habitat heterogeneity influences the causal factors that limit propagule establishment in natural populations is central to assess these demographic bottlenecks and their consequences. Bamboos often influence forest structure and dynamics and are a major factor in generating landscape complexity and habitat heterogeneity in tropical forests. To understand how patch heterogeneity influences plant recruitment we studied critical establishment stages during early recruitment of Euterpe edulis, Sloanea guianensis and Virola bicuhyba in bamboo and non-bamboo stands in the Brazilian Atlantic forest. We combined observational studies of seed rain and seedling emergence with seed addition experiments to evaluate the transition probabilities among regeneration stages within bamboo and non-bamboo stands. The relative importance of each mortality factor was evaluated by determining how the loss of propagules affected stage-specific recruitment success. Our results revealed that the seed addition treatment significantly increased seedling survivorship for all three species. E. edulis seedling survival probability increased in the addition treatment in the two stand types. However, for S. guianensis and V. bicuhyba this effect depended strongly on artificially protecting the seeds, as both species experienced increased seed and seedling losses due to post-dispersal seed predators and herbivores. Propagules of all three species had a greater probability of reaching subsequent recruitment stages when protected. The recruitment of large-seeded V. bicuhyba and E. edulis appears to be much more limited by post-dispersal factors than by dispersal limitation, whereas the small-seeded S. guianensis showed an even stronger effect of post-dispersal factors causing recruitment collapse in some situations. We demonstrated that E. edulis, S. guianensis and V. bicuhyba are especially susceptible to predation during early compared with later establishment stages and this early stage mortality can be more crucial than stand differences as determinants of successful regeneration. Among-species differences in the relative importance of dispersal vs. establishment limitation are mediated by variability in species responses to patch heterogeneity. Thus, bamboo effects on the early recruitment of non-bamboo species are patchy and species-specific, with successional bamboo patches exerting a far-reaching influence on the heterogeneity of plant species composition and abundance. © 2012 Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics.

Neolithic transitions: can genetic data help us understand a major demographic event in human prehistory?

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology

Genetic evidence for different male and female roles during cultural transitions in the British Isles

Human history is punctuated by periods of rapid cultural change. Although archeologists have developed a range of models to describe cultural transitions, in most real examples we do not know whether the processes involved the movement of people or the movement of culture only. With a series of relatively well defined cultural transitions, the British Isles present an ideal opportunity to assess the demographic context of cultural change. Important transitions after the first Paleolithic settlements include the Neolithic, the development of Iron Age cultures, and various historical invasions from continental Europe. Here we show that patterns of Y-chromosome variation indicate that the Neolithic and Iron Age transitions in the British Isles occurred without large-scale male movements. The more recent invasions from Scandinavia, on the other hand, appear to have left a significant paternal genetic legacy. In contrast, patterns of mtDNA and X-chromosome variation indicate that one or more of these pre-Anglo-Saxon cultural revolutions had a major effect on the maternal genetic heritage of the British Isles.

Demographic effects of thatch harvest and implications for sustainable use of irapai palm (Lepidocaryum tenue, Mart.), by riverine communities in the Peruvian Amazon

Lepidocaryum tenue Mart. (Arecaceae) is a small, understory palm of terra firme forests of the western and central Amazon basin. Known as irapai, it is used for roof thatch by Amazonian peoples who collect its leaves from the wild and generate income from its fronds and articles fabricated from them. Increasing demand has caused local concern that populations are declining. Cultivation attempts have been unsuccessful. The purpose of this study was to investigate market conditions and quantify population dynamics and demographic responses of harvested and unharvested irapai growing near Iquitos, Peru. ^ Ethnobotanical research included participant surveys to determine movement of thatch tiles, called crisnejas, through Moronacocha Port. I also conducted a seed germination trial, and for four years studied five populations growing in communities with similar topography and soils but different land tenure and management strategies. Stage, survival, leaf production, and reproductive transitions were used to calculate ramet demographic rates and develop population projection matrices. ^ Weavers made an average of 20–30 crisnejas per day (90–130 leaves each), and earned US$0.09 to 0.70 each (US$1.80 to 21.00 per day). Average crisnejas per month sold per vendor was 2,955 with a profit range of US$0.05 to 0.32 per crisneja. Wholesalers worked with capital outlay from US$100 to 400, and an estimated ten to twenty vendors could be found at a given time. Consumers paid between US$0.23 to 1.20 per crisneja. Although differences in demographic rates by location existed, most were not significant enough to attribute to management. ^ After 60 months, mean seed germination rate was 19.5% in all media (37.9% in peat). Seedling survival was less than two percent after twelve months. Annual palm mortality was three percent, and occurred disproportionately in small (<50 cm) palms. Small palms grew more in height. Unharvested palms grew less than harvested palms. Large palms (≥50 cm) produced more leaves, were more likely to reproduce, and collectors harvested them more frequently. Reproductive potentials (sexual and asexual) were low. Population growth rates were greater than or not significantly different from 1.0, indicating populations maintained or increased in size. Current levels of irapai harvest appear sustainable. DNA analysis of stems and recruits is recommended to understand population composition and stage-specific asexual fecundity. ^

Health-related And Socio-demographic Factors Associated With Frailty In The Elderly: A Systematic Literature Review.

Frailty is a syndrome that leads to practical harm in the lives of elders, since it is related to increased risk of dependency, falls, hospitalization, institutionalization, and death. The objective of this systematic review was to identify the socio-demographic, psycho-behavioral, health-related, nutritional, and lifestyle factors associated with frailty in the elderly. A total of 4,183 studies published from 2001 to 2013 were detected in the databases, and 182 complete articles were selected. After a comprehensive reading and application of selection criteria, 35 eligible articles remained for analysis. The main factors associated with frailty were: age, female gender, black race/color, schooling, income, cardiovascular diseases, number of comorbidities/diseases, functional incapacity, poor self-rated health, depressive symptoms, cognitive function, body mass index, smoking, and alcohol use. Knowledge of the complexity of determinants of frailty can assist the formulation of measures for prevention and early intervention, thereby contributing to better quality of life for the elderly.

Apoplastic And Intracellular Plant Sugars Regulate Developmental Transitions In Witches' Broom Disease Of Cacao.

Witches' broom disease (WBD) of cacao differs from other typical hemibiotrophic plant diseases by its unusually long biotrophic phase. Plant carbon sources have been proposed to regulate WBD developmental transitions; however, nothing is known about their availability at the plant-fungus interface, the apoplastic fluid of cacao. Data are provided supporting a role for the dynamics of soluble carbon in the apoplastic fluid in prompting the end of the biotrophic phase of infection. Carbon depletion and the consequent fungal sensing of starvation were identified as key signalling factors at the apoplast. MpNEP2, a fungal effector of host necrosis, was found to be up-regulated in an autophagic-like response to carbon starvation in vitro. In addition, the in vivo artificial manipulation of carbon availability in the apoplastic fluid considerably modulated both its expression and plant necrosis rate. Strikingly, infected cacao tissues accumulated intracellular hexoses, and showed stunted photosynthesis and the up-regulation of senescence markers immediately prior to the transition to the necrotrophic phase. These opposite findings of carbon depletion and accumulation in different host cell compartments are discussed within the frame of WBD development. A model is suggested to explain phase transition as a synergic outcome of fungal-related factors released upon sensing of extracellular carbon starvation, and an early senescence of infected tissues probably triggered by intracellular sugar accumulation.

[demographic And Clinical Features Of Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis In Piauí, Brazil--evaluation Of 98 Patients].

Brazilian epidemiological studies on rheumatoid arthritis are scarce, mainly in the northeast; thus many data currently available originate from the international literature. To describe demographic, clinical and serological characteristics of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) followed-up by the same physician, in state of Piauí, Brazil. Data were collected between August 2010 and March 2013, in three health services of Piauí that provided health care in Rheumatology: a university-affiliated hospital, a public outpatient clinic and a private clinic. The numbers represent mean ± SD or percentage: 47.5±11.03 years-old non-Caucasian woman, non-smoker (59.2%), low educational level, mean disease duration of 7.7 years ± 7.6, and major extra-articular manifestations were rheumatoid nodules (19.4%) and sicca syndrome (46.9%). Features of rheumatoid arthritis obtained in this study are similar to those found in some national and international studies, but we observed higher female preponderance and illiteracy rate, in addition to a moderately severe erosive disease on average, with frequent sicca and other extra-articular manifestations.

Brazilian multicentre study of common mental disorders in primary care: rates and related social and demographic factors

Mental health problems are common in primary health care, particularly anxiety and depression. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of common mental disorders and their associations with socio-demographic characteristics in primary care in Brazil (Family Health Strategy). It involved a multicenter cross-sectional study with patients from Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Fortaleza (Ceará State) and Porto Alegre (Rio Grande do Sul State), assessed using the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HAD). The rate of mental disorders in patients from Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Fortaleza and Porto Alegre were found to be, respectively, 51.9%, 53.3%, 64.3% and 57.7% with significant differences between Porto Alegre and Fortaleza compared to Rio de Janeiro after adjusting for confounders. Prevalence proportions of mental problems were especially common for females, the unemployed, those with less education and those with lower incomes. In the context of the Brazilian government's moves towards developing primary health care and reorganizing mental health policies it is relevant to consider common mental disorders as a priority alongside other chronic health conditions.

Phase transitions in biodegradable films based on blends of gelatin and poly (vinyl alcohol)

The aim of this work was to study the effect of the hydrolysis degree (HD) and the concentration (C PVA) of two types of poly (vinyl alcohol) (PVA) and the effect of the type and the concentration of plasticizers on the phase properties of biodegradable films based on blends of gelatin and PVA, using a response-surface methodology. The films were made by casting and the studied properties were their glass (Tg) and melting (Tm) transition temperatures, which were determined by diferential scanning calorimetry (DSC). For the data obtained on the first scan, the fitting of the linear model was statistically significant and predictive only for the second melting temperature. In this case, the most important effect on the second Tm of the first scan was due to the HD of the PVA. In relation to the second scan, the linear model could be fit to Tg data with only two statistically significant parameters. Both the PVA and plasticizer concentrations had an important effect on Tg. Concerning the second Tm of the second scan, the linear model was fit to data with two statistically significant parameters, namely the HD and the plasticizer concentration. But, the most important effect was provoked by the HD of the PVA.

Explaining sleep duration in adolescents: the impact of socio-demographic and lifestyle factors and working status

Previous studies found students who both work and attend school undergo a partial sleep deprivation that accumulates across the week. The aim of the present study was to obtain information using a questionnaire on a number of variables (e.g., socio-demographics, lifestyle, work timing, and sleep-wake habits) considered to impact on sleep duration of working (n=51) and non-working (n=41) high-school students aged 14-21 yrs old attending evening classes (19:00-22:30 h) at a public school in the city of So Paulo, Brazil. Data were collected for working days and days off. Multiple linear regression analyses were performed to assess the factors associated with sleep duration on weekdays and weekends. Work, sex, age, smoking, consumption of alcohol and caffeine, and physical activity were considered control variables. Significant predictors of sleep duration were: work (p < 0.01), daily work duration (8-10 h/day; p < 0.01), sex (p=0.04), age 18-21 yrs (0.01), smoking (p=0.02) and drinking habits (p=0.03), irregular physical exercise (p < 0.01), ease of falling asleep (p=0.04), and the sleep-wake cycle variables of napping (p < 0.01), nocturnal awakenings (p < 0.01), and mid-sleep regularity (p < 0.01). The results confirm the hypotheses that young students who work and attend school showed a reduction in night-time sleep duration. Sleep deprivation across the week, particularly in students working 8-10 h/day, is manifested through a sleep rebound (i.e., extended sleep duration) on Saturdays. However, the different roles played by socio-demographic and lifestyle variables have proven to be factors that intervene with nocturnal sleep duration. ) The variables related to the sleep-wake cycle naps and night awakenings proved to be associated with a slight reduction in night-time sleep, while regularity in sleep and wake-up schedules was shown to be associated with more extended sleep duration, with a distinct expression along the week and the weekend. Having to attend school and work, coupled with other socio-demographic and lifestyle factors, creates an unfavorable scenario for satisfactory sleep duration

Influence of metallic nanoparticles on electric-dipole and magnetic-dipole transitions of Eu(3+) doped germanate glasses

Luminescence properties of Eu(3+) doped germanate glasses containing either silver or gold nanoparticles (NPs) were investigated for excitation at 405 nm. Enhanced emissions and luminescence quenching of the Eu(3+) transitions in the range from 570 to 720 nm were observed for samples having various concentrations of metallic NPs. Electric-dipole and magnetic-dipole transitions that originate from the Eu(3+) level (5)D(0) exhibit large enhancement due to the presence of the metallic NPs. The results suggest that the magnetic response of rare-earth doped metal-dielectric composites at optical frequencies can be as strong as their electric response due to the confinement of the optical magnetic field. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3431347]

New constraints on muon-neutrino to electron-neutrino transitions in MINOS

This paper reports results from a search for nu(mu) -> nu(e) transitions by the MINOS experiment based on a 7 x 10(20) protons-on-target exposure. Our observation of 54 candidate nu(e) events in the far detector with a background of 49.1 +/- 7.0(stat) +/- 2.7(syst) events predicted by the measurements in the near detector requires 2sin(2)(2 theta(13))sin(2)theta(23) < 0.12(0.20) at the 90% C.L. for the normal (inverted) mass hierarchy at delta(CP) = 0. The experiment sets the tightest limits to date on the value of theta(13) for nearly all values of delta(CP) for the normal neutrino mass hierarchy and maximal sin(2)(2 theta(23)).

Search for Muon-Neutrino to Electron-Neutrino Transitions in MINOS

This Letter reports on a search for nu(mu)->nu(e) transitions by the MINOS experiment based on a 3.14x10(20) protons-on-target exposure in the Fermilab NuMI beam. We observe 35 events in the Far Detector with a background of 27 +/- 5(stat)+/- 2(syst) events predicted by the measurements in the Near Detector. If interpreted in terms of nu(mu)->nu(e) oscillations, this 1.5 sigma excess of events is consistent with sin(2)(2 theta(13)) comparable to the CHOOZ limit when |Delta m(2)|=2.43x10(-3) eV(2) and sin(2)(2 theta(23))=1.0 are assumed.

Phase transitions and spatially ordered counterion association in ionic-lipid membranes: A statistical model

We propose a statistical model to account for the gel-fluid anomalous phase transitions in charged bilayer- or lamellae-forming ionic lipids. The model Hamiltonian comprises effective attractive interactions to describe neutral-lipid membranes as well as the effect of electrostatic repulsions of the discrete ionic charges on the lipid headgroups. The latter can be counterion dissociated (charged) or counterion associated (neutral), while the lipid acyl chains may be in gel (low-temperature or high-lateral-pressure) or fluid (high-temperature or low-lateral-pressure) states. The system is modeled as a lattice gas with two distinct particle types-each one associated, respectively, with the polar-headgroup and the acyl-chain states-which can be mapped onto an Ashkin-Teller model with the inclusion of cubic terms. The model displays a rich thermodynamic behavior in terms of the chemical potential of counterions (related to added salt concentration) and lateral pressure. In particular, we show the existence of semidissociated thermodynamic phases related to the onset of charge order in the system. This type of order stems from spatially ordered counterion association to the lipid headgroups, in which charged and neutral lipids alternate in a checkerboard-like order. Within the mean-field approximation, we predict that the acyl-chain order-disorder transition is discontinuous, with the first-order line ending at a critical point, as in the neutral case. Moreover, the charge order gives rise to continuous transitions, with the associated second-order lines joining the aforementioned first-order line at critical end points. We explore the thermodynamic behavior of some physical quantities, like the specific heat at constant lateral pressure and the degree of ionization, associated with the fraction of charged lipid headgroups.