Perceived gender relations and sexual relations among undergraduate female students in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam

Background. Literature worldwide has documented associations between gender-based relationship inequity, sexual communication self-efficacy, and actual use of condoms and contraceptives among young women. However studies that have rigorously tested these associations in southern Vietnam are extremely rare. This study aimed to examine these associations and other current sexual practices among undergraduate female students in the Mekong Delta. Method. A qualitative study was conducted to examine the operationalization of the Theory of Gender and Power and to obtain salient and culture-relevant dimensions of perceived gender relations in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. Sixty-four undergraduate female students from two universities participated in eight group discussions focusing on their viewpoints regarding national and local gender equity issues. A subsequent cross-sectional survey consisting of 1181 third-year female students from Can Tho University and An Giang University was conducted. Latent variable modeling and logistic regression were employed to examine the hypothesized associations. Results. Dimensions of perceived gender relations were attributable to theoretical structures of labor, power, and cathexis. Perceptions about gender inequities were comparable to findings from several reports, in which women were still viewed as inferior and subordinate to men. Among students who had ever had a boyfriend(s) (72.4%), 44.8% indicated that their boyfriend had ever asked for sex, 13% had ever had penile-vaginal sex, and 10.3% had ever had oral sex. For those who had ever had penile-vaginal sex, 33% did not use any contraceptive method at first sex. The greater a student’s perception that women were subordinate to men, the lower her self-efficacy for sexual communication and the lower her actual frequencies of asking for contraceptive or condom use. Sexual communication self-efficacy was marginally associated with actual contraceptive use (p=.039) and condom use (p=.092) at first sex. Conclusion. Sexual health promotion strategies should address the influence of perceived unequal gender relations on young women’s sexual communication self-efficacy and the subsequent impact on actual contraceptive and condom use.^

An approach to estimating rockfish biomass based on larval production, with application to Sebastes jordani

An assessment of the total biomass of shortbelly rockfish (Sebastes jordani) off the central California coast is presented that is based on a spatially extensive but temporally restricted ichthyoplankton survey conducted during the 1991 spawning season. Contemporaneous samples of adults were obtained by trawl sampling in the study region. Daily larval production (7.56 × 1010 larvae/d) and the larval mortality rate (Z=0.11/d) during the cruise were estimated from a larval “catch curve,” wherein the logarithm of total age-specific larval abundance was regressed against larval age. For this analysis, larval age compositions at each of the 150 sample sites were determined by examination of otolith microstructure from subsampled larvae (n=2203), which were weighted by the polygonal Sette-Ahlstrom area surrounding each station. Female population weight-specific fecundity was estimated through a life table analysis that incorporated sex-specific differences in adult growth rate, female maturity, fecundity, and natural mortality (M). The resulting statistic (102.17 larvae/g) was insensitive to errors in estimating M and to the pattern of recruitment. Together, the two analyses indicated that a total biomass equal to 1366 metric tons (t)/d of age-1+ shortbelly rockfish (sexes combined) was needed to account for the observed level of spawning output during the cruise. Given the long-term seasonal distribution of spawning activity in the study area, as elucidated from a retrospective examination of California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigation (CalCOFI) ichthyoplankton samples from 1952 to 1984, the “daily” total biomass was expanded to an annual total of 67,392 t. An attempt to account for all sources of error in the derivation of this estimate was made by application of the delta-method, which yielded a coefficient of variation of 19%. The relatively high precision of this larval production method, and the rapidity with which an absolute biomass estimate can be obtained, establishes that, for some species of rockfish (Sebastes spp.), it is an attractive alternative to traditional age-structured stock assessments.

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

Prediction intervals to account for uncertainties in travel time prediction

The accurate prediction of travel times is desirable but frequently prone to error. This is mainly attributable to both the underlying traffic processes and the data that are used to infer travel time. A more meaningful and pragmatic approach is to view travel time prediction as a probabilistic inference and to construct prediction intervals (PIs), which cover the range of probable travel times travelers may encounter. This paper introduces the delta and Bayesian techniques for the construction of PIs. Quantitative measures are developed and applied for a comprehensive assessment of the constructed PIs. These measures simultaneously address two important aspects of PIs: 1) coverage probability and 2) length. The Bayesian and delta methods are used to construct PIs for the neural network (NN) point forecasts of bus and freeway travel time data sets. The obtained results indicate that the delta technique outperforms the Bayesian technique in terms of narrowness of PIs with satisfactory coverage probability. In contrast, PIs constructed using the Bayesian technique are more robust against the NN structure and exhibit excellent coverage probability.

Nonparametric specification tests for conditional duration models

This paper deals with the testing of autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models by gauging the distance between the parametric density and hazard rate functions implied by the duration process and their non-parametric estimates. We derive the asymptotic justification using the functional delta method for fixed and gamma kernels, and then investigate the finite-sample properties through Monte Carlo simulations. Although our tests display some size distortion, bootstrapping suffices to correct the size without compromising their excellent power. We show the practical usefulness of such testing procedures for the estimation of intraday volatility patterns.

Nonparametric entropy-based tests of independence between stochastic processes

This paper develops nonparametric tests of independence between two stationary stochastic processes. The testing strategy boils down to gauging the closeness between the joint and the product of the marginal stationary densities. For that purpose, I take advantage of a generalized entropic measure so as to build a class of nonparametric tests of independence. Asymptotic normality and local power are derived using the functional delta method for kernels, whereas finite sample properties are investigated through Monte Carlo simulations.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major differences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values -β=0.985, and ∅=5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% - the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business- cycle fluctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same figures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Lucas(1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major diferences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values = 0:985, and = 5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business-cycle uctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same gures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.

Non- parametric specification tests for conditional duration models

This paper deals with the estimation and testing of conditional duration models by looking at the density and baseline hazard rate functions. More precisely, we foeus on the distance between the parametric density (or hazard rate) function implied by the duration process and its non-parametric estimate. Asymptotic justification is derived using the functional delta method for fixed and gamma kernels, whereas finite sample properties are investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we show the practical usefulness of such testing procedures by carrying out an empirical assessment of whether autoregressive conditional duration models are appropriate to oIs for modelling price durations of stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange.

Variability in Modified Estimators of VaR and ES

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Novel expression of microRNAs in serum samples of Iraqi breast cancer women

Although a lot of hard work against cancer to reduces its spread but it still continues to kill with abandon. The need for a biomarker for cancer early detection becomes the most mind concentrated scientists. MicroRNAs the tiny non coding RNA molecules opened new path for the scientists to determine the cancer in its early stages. Expression of microRNAs profiles has been investigated to be involved in cancer development. Here we determined the expression of microRNAs in serum of Iraqi healthy volunteers and other women diagnosed with breast cancer. MicroRNAs expression has been determined by using real time qPCR and delta method has been used. Four of thirteen microRNAs were shown to be expressed in serum of Iraqi breast cancer women. Let-7a and miR-21 were shown to be significantly over expressed in serum of breast cancer compared with healthy serum volunteers (P= 0.022 and 0.026) respectively. While miR-26b and miR-429 found to be significantly down expressed in serum of breast cancer women (P= 0.0034 and 0.031) respectively. The result concluded that these expressed microRNAs in serum of breast cancer women could be used as a first indicator of breast cancer occurrence.

Asymptotic Change-Point Analysis of the Dependencies in Time Series

In recent papers, Wied and his coauthors have introduced change-point procedures to detect and estimate structural breaks in the correlation between time series. To prove the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic and stopping time as well as the change-point estimation rate, they use an extended functional Delta method and assume nearly constant expectations and variances of the time series. In this thesis, we allow asymptotically infinitely many structural breaks in the means and variances of the time series. For this setting, we present test statistics and stopping times which are used to determine whether or not the correlation between two time series is and stays constant, respectively. Additionally, we consider estimates for change-points in the correlations. The employed nonparametric statistics depend on the means and variances. These (nuisance) parameters are replaced by estimates in the course of this thesis. We avoid assuming a fixed form of these estimates but rather we use "blackbox" estimates, i.e. we derive results under assumptions that these estimates fulfill. These results are supplement with examples. This thesis is organized in seven sections. In Section 1, we motivate the issue and present the mathematical model. In Section 2, we consider a posteriori and sequential testing procedures, and investigate convergence rates for change-point estimation, always assuming that the means and the variances of the time series are known. In the following sections, the assumptions of known means and variances are relaxed. In Section 3, we present the assumptions for the mean and variance estimates that we will use for the mean in Section 4, for the variance in Section 5, and for both parameters in Section 6. Finally, in Section 7, a simulation study illustrates the finite sample behaviors of some testing procedures and estimates.

The log delta log t method for the determination of the coefficient of consolidation

The behaviour of saturated soils undergoing consolidation is very complex, It may not follow Terzaghi's theory over the entire consolidation process, Different soils may behave in such a way as to fit into Terzaghi's theory over some specific stages of the consolidation process (percentage of consolidation), This may be one of the reasons for the difficulties faced by the existing curve-fitting procedures in obtaining the coefficient of consolidation, c(v). It has been shown that the slope of the initial linear portion of the theoretical log U-log T curve is constant over a wider range of degree of consolidation, U, when compared with the other methods in use, This initial well-defined straight line in the log U-log T plot intersects the U = 100% line at T = pi/4, which corresponds to U = 88.3%, The proposed log delta-log t method is based on this observation, which gives the value of c(v) through simple graphical construction, In the proposed method, which is more versatile, identification of the characteristic straight lines is very clear; the intersection of these lines is more precise and the method does not depend upon the initial compression for the determination of c(v).

Studies on the structural and ionic transport properties at elevated temperatures of La1-xMnO3 +/-delta synthesized by a wet chemical method

Structural transformation and ionic transport properties are investigated on wet-chemically synthesized La1-xMnO3 (X=0.0-0.18) compositions. Powders annealed in oxygen/air at 1000-1080 K exhibit cubic symmetry and transform to rhombohedral on annealing at 1173-1573 K in air/oxygen. Annealing above 1773 K in air or in argon/helium at 1473 K stabilized distorted rhombohedral or orthorhombic symmetry. Structural transformations are confirmed from XRD and TEM studies. The total conductivity of sintered disks, measured by four-probe technique, ranges from 5 S cm(-1) at 298 K to 105 S cm(-1) at 1273 K. The ionic conductivity measured by blocking electrode technique ranges from 1.0X10(-6) S cm(-1) at 700 K to 2.0X10(-3) S cm(-1) at 1273 K. The ionic transference number of these compositions ranges from 3.0X10(-5) to 5.0X10(-5) at 1273 K. The activation energy deduced from experimental data for ionic conduction and ionic migration is 1.03-1.10 and 0.80-1.00 eV, respectively. The activation energy of formation, association and migration of vacancies ranges from 1.07 to 1.44 eV. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.