A Fuzzy Decision Strategy for Topic Identification and Dynamic Selection of Language Models

International audience

Activity modelling in crowded environments : a soft decision approach

Probabilistic topic models have recently been used for activity analysis in video processing, due to their strong capacity to model both local activities and interactions in crowded scenes. In those applications, a video sequence is divided into a collection of uniform non-overlaping video clips, and the high dimensional continuous inputs are quantized into a bag of discrete visual words. The hard division of video clips, and hard assignment of visual words leads to problems when an activity is split over multiple clips, or the most appropriate visual word for quantization is unclear. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm, which makes use of a soft histogram technique to compensate for the loss of information in the quantization process; and a soft cut technique in the temporal domain to overcome problems caused by separating an activity into two video clips. In the detection process, we also apply a soft decision strategy to detect unusual events.We show that the proposed soft decision approach outperforms its hard decision counterpart in both local and global activity modelling.

Decision strategies for automated visual collision avoidance

This paper provides a preliminary analysis of an autonomous uncooperative collision avoidance strategy for unmanned aircraft using image-based visual control. Assuming target detection, the approach consists of three parts. First, a novel decision strategy is used to determine appropriate reference image features to track for safe avoidance. This is achieved by considering the current rules of the air (regulations), the properties of spiral motion and the expected visual tracking errors. Second, a spherical visual predictive control (VPC) scheme is used to guide the aircraft along a safe spiral-like trajectory about the object. Lastly, a stopping decision based on thresholding a cost function is used to determine when to stop the avoidance behaviour. The approach does not require estimation of range or time to collision, and instead relies on tuning two mutually exclusive decision thresholds to ensure satisfactory performance.

Design and evaluation of decision and control strategies for autonomous vision-based see and avoid systems

This paper details the design and performance assessment of a unique collision avoidance decision and control strategy for autonomous vision-based See and Avoid systems. The general approach revolves around re-positioning a collision object in the image using image-based visual servoing, without estimating range or time to collision. The decision strategy thus involves determining where to move the collision object, to induce a safe avoidance manuever, and when to cease the avoidance behaviour. These tasks are accomplished by exploiting human navigation models, spiral motion properties, expected image feature uncertainty and the rules of the air. The result is a simple threshold based system that can be tuned and statistically evaluated by extending performance assessment techniques derived for alerting systems. Our results demonstrate how autonomous vision-only See and Avoid systems may be designed under realistic problem constraints, and then evaluated in a manner consistent to aviation expectations.

The Rational Adolescent: Strategic Information Processing during Decision Making Revealed by Eye Tracking.

Adolescence is often viewed as a time of irrational, risky decision-making - despite adolescents' competence in other cognitive domains. In this study, we examined the strategies used by adolescents (N=30) and young adults (N=47) to resolve complex, multi-outcome economic gambles. Compared to adults, adolescents were more likely to make conservative, loss-minimizing choices consistent with economic models. Eye-tracking data showed that prior to decisions, adolescents acquired more information in a more thorough manner; that is, they engaged in a more analytic processing strategy indicative of trade-offs between decision variables. In contrast, young adults' decisions were more consistent with heuristics that simplified the decision problem, at the expense of analytic precision. Collectively, these results demonstrate a counter-intuitive developmental transition in economic decision making: adolescents' decisions are more consistent with rational-choice models, while young adults more readily engage task-appropriate heuristics.

Assessing Decision Making Strategies In Construction Management By Using A Schedule-Based Simulation Framework

During the project, managers encounter numerous contingencies and are faced with the challenging task of making decisions that will effectively keep the project on track. This task is very challenging because construction projects are non-prototypical and the processes are irreversible. Therefore, it is critical to apply a methodological approach to develop a few alternative management decision strategies during the planning phase, which can be deployed to manage alternative scenarios resulting from expected and unexpected disruptions in the as-planned schedule. Such a methodology should have the following features but are missing in the existing research: (1) looking at the effects of local decisions on the global project outcomes, (2) studying how a schedule responds to decisions and disruptive events because the risk in a schedule is a function of the decisions made, (3) establishing a method to assess and improve the management decision strategies, and (4) developing project specific decision strategies because each construction project is unique and the lessons from a particular project cannot be easily applied to projects that have different contexts. The objective of this dissertation is to develop a schedule-based simulation framework to design, assess, and improve sequences of decisions for the execution stage. The contribution of this research is the introduction of applying decision strategies to manage a project and the establishment of iterative methodology to continuously assess and improve decision strategies and schedules. The project managers or schedulers can implement the methodology to develop and identify schedules accompanied by suitable decision strategies to manage a project at the planning stage. The developed methodology also lays the foundation for an algorithm towards continuously automatically generating satisfactory schedule and strategies through the construction life of a project. Different from studying isolated daily decisions, the proposed framework introduces the notion of {em decision strategies} to manage construction process. A decision strategy is a sequence of interdependent decisions determined by resource allocation policies such as labor, material, equipment, and space policies. The schedule-based simulation framework consists of two parts, experiment design and result assessment. The core of the experiment design is the establishment of an iterative method to test and improve decision strategies and schedules, which is based on the introduction of decision strategies and the development of a schedule-based simulation testbed. The simulation testbed used is Interactive Construction Decision Making Aid (ICDMA). ICDMA has an emulator to duplicate the construction process that has been previously developed and a random event generator that allows the decision-maker to respond to disruptions in the emulation. It is used to study how the schedule responds to these disruptions and the corresponding decisions made over the duration of the project while accounting for cascading impacts and dependencies between activities. The dissertation is organized into two parts. The first part presents the existing research, identifies the departure points of this work, and develops a schedule-based simulation framework to design, assess, and improve decision strategies. In the second part, the proposed schedule-based simulation framework is applied to investigate specific research problems.

Rotorcraft collision avoidance using spherical image-based visual servoing and single point features

This paper presents a reactive collision avoidance method for small unmanned rotorcraft using spherical image-based visual servoing. Only a single point feature is used to guide the aircraft in a safe spiral like trajectory around the target, whilst a spherical camera model ensures the target always remains visible. A decision strategy to stop the avoidance control is derived based on the properties of spiral like motion, and the effect of accurate range measurements on the control scheme is discussed. We show that using a poor range estimate does not significantly degrade the collision avoidance performance, thus relaxing the need for accurate range measurements. We present simulated and experimental results using a small quad rotor to validate the approach.

Right ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices mediate adaptive decisions under ambiguity by integrating choice utility and outcome evaluation.

The Iowa gambling task (IGT) is one of the most influential behavioral paradigms in reward-related decision making and has been, most notably, associated with ventromedial prefrontal cortex function. However, performance in the IGT relies on a complex set of cognitive subprocesses, in particular integrating information about the outcome of choices into a continuously updated decision strategy under ambiguous conditions. The complexity of the task has made it difficult for neuroimaging studies to disentangle the underlying neurocognitive processes. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging in combination with a novel adaptation of the task, which allowed us to examine separately activation associated with the moment of decision or the evaluation of decision outcomes. Importantly, using whole-brain regression analyses with individual performance, in combination with the choice/outcome history of individual subjects, we aimed to identify the neural overlap between areas that are involved in the evaluation of outcomes and in the progressive discrimination of the relative value of available choice options, thus mapping the two fundamental cognitive processes that lead to adaptive decision making. We show that activation in right ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex was predictive of adaptive performance, in both discriminating disadvantageous from advantageous decisions and confirming negative decision outcomes. We propose that these two prefrontal areas mediate shifting away from disadvantageous choices through their sensitivity to accumulating negative outcomes. These findings provide functional evidence of the underlying processes by which these prefrontal subregions drive adaptive choice in the task, namely through contingency-sensitive outcome evaluation.

Cerebellar Pathology Does Not Impair Performance on Identification or Categorization Tasks

In comparison to the basal ganglia, prefrontal cortex, and medial temporal lobes, the cerebellum has been absent from recent research on the neural substrates of categorization and identification, two prominent tasks in the learning and memory literature. To investigate the contribution of the cerebellum to these tasks, we tested patients with cerebellar pathology (seven with bilateral degeneration, six with unilateral lesions, and two with midline damage) on rule-based and information-integration categorization tasks and an identification task. In rule-based tasks, it is assumed that participants learn the categories through an explicit reasoning process. In information-integration tasks, optimal performance requires the integration of information from multiple stimulus dimensions, and participants are typically unaware of the decision strategy. The identification task, in contrast, required participants to learn arbitrary, color-word associations. The cerebellar patients performed similar to matched controls on all three tasks and performance did not vary with the extent of cerebellar pathology. Although the interpretation of these null results requires caution, these data contribute to the current debate on cerebellar contributions to cognition by providing boundary conditions on understanding the neural substrates of categorization and identification, and help define the functional domain of the cerebellum in learning and memory.

Non-thermal transitions in a model inspired by moral decisions

This work introduces a model in which agents of a network act upon one another according to three different kinds of moral decisions. These decisions are based on an increasing level of sophistication in the empathy capacity of the agent, a hierarchy which we name Piaget's ladder. The decision strategy of the agents is non-rational, in the sense they are arbitrarily fixed, and the model presents quenched disorder given by the distribution of its defining parameters. An analytical solution for this model is obtained in the large system limit as well as a leading order correction for finite-size systems which shows that typical realisations of the model develop a phase structure with both continuous and discontinuous non-thermal transitions.

Strategy for the development of investment decision-making framework for road asset management for queensland department of main roads

The aim of this project is to develop a systematic investment decision-making framework for infrastructure asset management by incorporation economic justification, social and environmental consideration in the decision-making process. This project assesses the factors that are expected to provide significant impacts on the variability of expenditures. A procedure for assessing risk and reliability for project investment appraisals will be developed. The project investigates public perception, social and environmental impacts on road infrastructure investment. This research will contribute to the debate about how important social and environmental issues should be incorporated into the investment decision-making process for infrastructure asset management.

Maintenance strategy optimization using a continuous-state partially observable semi-Markov decision process

Due to the limitation of current condition monitoring technologies, the estimates of asset health states may contain some uncertainties. A maintenance strategy ignoring this uncertainty of asset health state can cause additional costs or downtime. The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) is a commonly used approach to derive optimal maintenance strategies when asset health inspections are imperfect. However, existing applications of the POMDP to maintenance decision-making largely adopt the discrete time and state assumptions. The discrete-time assumption requires the health state transitions and maintenance activities only happen at discrete epochs, which cannot model the failure time accurately and is not cost-effective. The discrete health state assumption, on the other hand, may not be elaborate enough to improve the effectiveness of maintenance. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP). An algorithm that combines the Monte Carlo-based density projection method and the policy iteration is developed to solve the POSMDP. Different types of maintenance activities (i.e., inspections, replacement, and imperfect maintenance) are considered in this paper. The next maintenance action and the corresponding waiting durations are optimized jointly to minimize the long-run expected cost per unit time and availability. The result of simulation studies shows that the proposed maintenance optimization approach is more cost-effective than maintenance strategies derived by another two approximate methods, when regular inspection intervals are adopted. The simulation study also shows that the maintenance cost can be further reduced by developing maintenance strategies with state-dependent maintenance intervals using the POSMDP. In addition, during the simulation studies the proposed POSMDP shows the ability to adopt a cost-effective strategy structure when multiple types of maintenance activities are involved.

Make or buy decision in the context of manufacturing strategy

This paper describes an approach to structuring the make or buy decision process, basing it firmly in the context of an overall manufacturing strategy. The work has been carried out jointly by the University of Cambridge Manufacturing Engineering Group and Lucas Industries. A review of the current state of ideas surrounding the linked issues of vertical integration and make or buy decisions is presented. Important features of the approach include identification of core manufacturing capabilities, assessment of the role of technology in manufacturing, the development of a cost model to support make or buy decisions and a review of the strategic implications of varying degrees of vertical integration.