The LDC debt problem: a game-theoretical analisys

We review the LDC debt crisis since 1982, by means of game theory. New insights are obtained into the reasons behind the formation of the creditors' carte1 and the nature of the difficu1ties invo1ved in the formation of the debtors' carte1. The standard view that Rubinstein's barganing mode1s are appropriate for dea1ing with debt re1ief is shown to be faulty, un1ess the debtor buys out the debt.

Cuba's convertible currency debt problem

Includes bibliography

Options for tackling the external debt problem

Includes bibliography

The evolution of the external debt problem in Latin America and the Caribbean = La evolución del problema de la deuda externa en América Latina y el Caribe

Includes bibliography

External debt in developing economies: assessment and policy issues

More than one decade after the external debt restructuring (the Brady Plan), a great amount of literature has been published concerning the balance sheet factors in developing countries. The staff of international multilateral institutions joined with reputable academics in this great controversy. The external debt problem of the developing countries is back and once more reflections on its cause and on policy recommendations are analytically distinct. Our main task is to reflect on the recent external debt dynamics and assess how this debt has evolved. Our findings indicate that the susceptibility of some developing countries to default is associated with global imbalance, that is, the way they borrow.

Talouden hallinta ja talousneuvonta ylivelkaantumisen estämisessä

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli saada näkemys kunnallisten talous- ja velkaneuvontatoimistojen antaman talousneuvonnan toimivuudesta ylivelkaantumisen estämisessä sekä mahdollisista kehitystarpeista. Tutkielmassa käsitellään talousneuvonnan perustana oleva lainsäädäntö, tasapainoisen talouden perusteita sekä velkaantumisen syitä. Varsinainen tutkimus tehtiin internetin kautta toteutetulla kunnallisille talous- ja velkaneuvojille suunnatulla kyselyllä. Kyselyllä selvitettiin muun muassa, kuinka paljon talousneuvontaa annetaan, minkälaista tuo annettu neuvonta on ja annetaanko neuvontaa yrittäjille. Lisäksi haluttiin saada selville talous- ja velkaneuvojien käyttämä talousneuvontaprosessi. Tutkimustuloksista ilmenee, että vaikka talous- ja velkaneuvonnasta annettu laki painottaa talousneuvontaa, talous- ja velkaneuvojien tyypilliset työtehtävät liittyvät yksityishenkilön velkajärjestelyyn. Varsinaista talousneuvontaa annetaan kohtuullisen vähän. Suurin osa talous- ja velkaneuvojista oli sitä mieltä, että talousneuvonnalla voidaan kokonaan tai osittain estää ylivelkaantuminen. Yli puolet talous- ja velkaneuvojista ei antaisi talousneuvontaa yrittäjille, mutta pääsyy kieltäytymiselle oli kuitenkin resurssipula. Talousneuvonnan antamisen tueksi tulisi saada koulutusta, materiaalia sekä konkreettisia välineitä, kuten atk-ohjelmia. Velkaantuminen on pysyvä osa markkinataloutta ja yhteiskunnan tulee kantaa siitä vastuu. Tärkeintä olisi kuitenkin saada ihmiset motivoitumaan oman taloudellisen tilanteen hoitamiseen.

Euroland: besser als befürchtet aber schlechter als erhofft?

Die Schaffung der Europäischen Währungsunion hatte in wissenschaftlichen Kreisen heftigste Kontroversen ausgelöst. Der vorliegende Beitrag unternimmt, dreieinhalb Jahre nach dem Beginn der Währungsunion, eine Bestandsaufnahme der Entwicklungen in den diesbezüglich zugrundeliegenden zentralen Problembereichen: den Arbeitsmärkten, der Inflationsentwicklung und der Budgetproblematik. Eine Analyse der Thesen im Lichte der bisherigen makroökonomischen Daten führt zu einem gemischten Urteil: während die Entwicklungen auf den Arbeitsmärkten und im Inflationsbereeich bislang in der Tendenz positiv sind, stagniert die angestrebte Besserung bei der Budget- und Schuldenproblematik. Da die weltwirtschaftlichen Einflüsse bislang günstig bzw. für alle Teilnehmerländer von ähnlicher Wirkung waren, steht ein harter Test des makroökonomischen Rahmens aber noch aus.

Modeling regional macroeconomic interactions: situation and perspectives for macroeconomic coordination in Latin America. Background paper prepared for the REDIMA workshop on Modeling Macroeconomic Coordination in the Andean Community, (Santiago, Chile 22 October 2003)""

Includes bibliography

Preliminary overview of the economies of the Caribbean 2012-2013

Includes bibliography

Institutions and Growth in Europe. CEPS Working Document No. 421, April 2016

This paper provides empirical evidence in support of the view that the quality of institutions is an important determinant of long-term growth of European countries. When also taking into account the initial level of GDP per capita and government debt, cross-country institutional differences can explain to a great extent the relative long-term GDP performance of European countries. It also shows that an initial government debt level above a threshold (e.g. 60-70%) coupled with institutional quality below the EU average tends to be associated with particularly poor long-term real growth performance. Interestingly, the detrimental effect of high debt levels on long-term growth seems cushioned by the presence of very sound institutions. This might be because good institutions help to alleviate the debt problem in various ways, e.g. by ensuring sufficient fiscal consolidation in the longer-run, allowing for better use of government expenditures and promoting sustainable growth, social fairness and more efficient tax administration. The quality of national institutions seems to enhance the long-term GDP performance across a large sample of countries, also including OECD countries outside Europe. The paper offers some evidence that, in the presence of good institutions, conditions for catching-up seem generally good also for euro-area and fixed exchange rate countries. Looking at sub-groupings, it seems that sound institutions may be particularly important for long-term growth in the countries where the exchange rate tool is no longer available (and where also sovereign debt is high), and less so in the countries with flexible exchange rate regimes. However, this result is preliminary and requires further research. The empirical findings on the importance of institutions are robust to various measures of output growth, different measures of institutional indicators, different sample sizes, different country groupings and to the inclusion of additional control variables. Overall, the results tend to support the call for structural reforms in general and reforms enhancing the efficiency of public administration and regulation, the rule of law and the fight against rent-seeking and corruption in particular.

Economic restructuring in Latin America in the face of the foreign debt and the external transfer problem

Includes bibliography

Problema de la deuda: gestación, desarrollo, crisis y perspectiva = Problem of the external debt: gestation, development, crisis and prospects = Le probleme de la dette: gestation, evolution, crise et perspectives

Incluye Bibliografía

Problema de la deuda: gestación, desarrollo, crisis y perspectiva = Problem of the external debt: gestation, development, crisis and prospects

Incluye Bibliografía

Ukraine on the financial front – the problem of Ukraine’s foreign public debt. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 178|05.08.2015

One of the key challenges that Ukraine is facing is the scale of its foreign debt (both public and private). As of 1st April it stood at US$ 126 billion, which is 109.8% of the country’s GDP. Approximately 45% of these financial obligations are short-term, meaning that they must be paid off within a year. Although the value of the debt has fallen by nearly US$ 10 billion since the end of 2014 (due to the private sector paying a part of the liabilities), the debt to GDP ratio has increased due to the recession and the depreciation of the hryvnia. The value of Ukraine’s foreign public debt is also on the rise (including state guarantees); since the beginning of 2015 it has risen from US$ 37.6 billion to US$ 43.6 billion. Ukraine does not currently have the resources to pay off its debt. In this situation a debt restructuring is necessary and this is one of the top priorities for the Ukrainian government as well as for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and its assistance programme. Without this it will be much more difficult for Ukraine to overcome the economic crisis.