Intensity-duration-frequency ratios obtained from annual records and partial duration records in the locality of Pelotas - RS, Brazil

The intensity-duration-frequency occurrence ratio (IDF) is a tool commonly used for precipitation-runoff data transformation, which is established from observations of intense precipitations over a period sufficiently long as to allow the occurrence of extremes at the observation site. This study focused on verifying the existence or absence of new data, in terms of IDF ratio, by using partial duration records produced from data on maximum daily disaggregated rainfall for pre determined durations. The partial duration records considered a base value of 55 mm, totaling 279 values. After the rainfall series were established, their independence and seasonality were assessed. Using the Student's t-test statistics, it was established that no new data, as IDF ratio, emerged from the analysis of the partial duration series with the recommended base value of precipitation, as compared to the historical records.

Efficiency of Gumbel analyses for determining extreme daily precipitation in Switzerland

Gumbel analyses were carried out on rainfall time-series at 151 locations in Switzerland for 4 different periods of 30 years in order to estimate daily extreme precipitation for a return period of 100 years. Those estimations were compared with maximal daily values measured during the last 100 years (1911-2010) to test the efficiency of these analyses. This comparison shows that these analyses provide good results for 50 to 60% locations in this country from rainfall time-series 1961-1990 and 1980-2010. On the other hand, daily precipitation with a return period of 100 years is underestimated at most locations from time-series 1931-1960 and especially 1911-1940. Such underestimation results from the increase of maximal daily precipitation recorded from 1911 to 2010 at 90% locations in Switzerland.

Triple isotope (δD, δ17O, δ18O) study on precipitation, drip water and speleothem fluid inclusions for a central European cave (NW Switzerland)

Deuterium (dD) and oxygen (d18O) isotopes are powerful tracers of the hydrological cycle and have been extensively used for paleoclimate reconstructions as they can provide information on past precipitation, temperature and atmospheric circulation. More recently, the use of 17Oexcess derived from precise measurement of d17O and d18O gives new and additional insights in tracing the hydrological cycle whereas uncertainties surround this proxy. However, 17Oexcess could provide additional information on the atmospheric conditions at the moisture source as well as about fractionations associated with transport and site processes. In this paper we trace water stable isotopes (dD, d17O and d18O) along their path from precipitation to cave drip water and finally to speleothem fluid inclusions for Milandre cave in northwestern Switzerland. A two year-long daily resolved precipitation isotope record close to the cave site is compared to collected cave drip water (3 months average resolution) and fluid inclusions of modern and Holocene stalagmites. Amount weighted mean dD, d18O and d17O are �71.0‰, �9.9‰, �5.2‰ for precipitation, �60.3‰, �8.7‰, �4.6‰ for cave drip water and �61.3‰, �8.3‰, �4.7‰ for recent fluid inclusions respectively. Second order parameters have also been derived in precipitation and drip water and present similar values with 18 per meg for 17Oexcess whereas d-excess is 1.5‰ more negative in drip water. Furthermore, the atmospheric signal is shifted towards enriched values in the drip water and fluid inclusions (D of ~ þ 10‰ for dD). The isotopic composition of cave drip water exhibits a weak seasonal signal which is shifted by around 8e10 months (groundwater residence time) when compared to the precipitation. Moreover, we carried out the first d17O measurement in speleothem fluid inclusions, as well as the first comparison of the d17O behaviour from the meteoric water to the fluid inclusions entrapment in speleothems. This study on precipitation, drip water and fluid inclusions will be used as a speleothem proxy calibration for Milandre cave in order to reconstruct paleotemperatures and moisture source variations for Western Central Europe.

Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions and an increase of the low- to mid-tropospheric moisture. Furthermore, the jet stream position (during ≥5-year return level events) supports the eastern basin being in a divergence area, where ascent motions are favoured. Our results contribute to an improved understanding of daily precipitation extremes in the cold season and associated large scale atmospheric features.

Triple isotope (δD, δ17O, δ18O) study on precipitation, drip water and speleothem fluid inclusions for a Western Central European cave (NW Switzerland)

Deuterium (δD) and oxygen (δ18O) isotopes are powerful tracers of the hydrological cycle and have been extensively used for paleoclimate reconstructions as they can provide information on past precipitation, temperature and atmospheric circulation. More recently, the use of δ17O excess derived from precise measurement of δ17O and δ18O gives new and additional insights in tracing the hydrological cycle whereas uncertainties surround this proxy. However, 17O excess could provide additional information on the atmospheric conditions at the moisture source as well as about fractionations associated with transport and site processes. In this paper we trace water stable isotopes (δD,δ17O and δ18O) along their path from precipitation to cave drip water and finally to speleothem fluid inclusions for Milandre cave in northwestern Switzerland. A two year-long daily resolved precipitation isotope record close to the cave site is compared to collected cave drip water (3 months average resolution) and fluid inclusions of modern and Holocene stalagmites. Amount weighted mean δD,δ18O and δ17O are -71.0‰, -9.9‰, -5.2‰ for precipitation, -60.3‰, -8.7‰, -4.6‰ for cave drip water and -61.3‰, -8.3‰, -4.7‰ for recent fluid inclusions respectively. Second order parameters have also been derived in precipitation and drip water and present similar values with 18 per meg for 17O excess whereas d-excess is 1.5‰ more negative in drip water. Furthermore, the atmospheric signal is shifted towards enriched values in the drip water and fluid inclusions (Δ of ~ + 10‰ for δD). The isotopic composition of cave drip water exhibits a weak seasonal signal which is shifted by around 8 - 10 months (groundwater residence time) when compared to the precipitation. Moreover, we carried out the first δ17O measurement in speleothem fluid inclusions, as well as the first comparison of the δ17 O behaviour from the meteoric water to the fluid inclusions entrapment in speleothems. This study on precipitation, drip water and fluid inclusions will be used as a speleothem proxy calibration for Milandre cave in order to reconstruct paleotemperatures and moisture source variations for Western Central Europe.

Daily mean surface meteorology and river discharge in Central Sulawesi for the period 2002-2005

The El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the strongest known natural interannual climate fluctuation. The most recent two extreme ENSO events of 1982/83 and 1997/98 severley hit the socio-economy of main parts of Indonesia. As the climate variability is not homogeneous over the whole Archipelago of Indonesia, ENSO events cause negative precipitation anomalies of diverse magnitude and uration in different regions. Understanding the hydrology of humid tropical catchments is an essential prerequisite to investigate the impact of climate variability on the catchment hydrology. Together with the quantitative assessment of future water resource changes they are essential tools to develop mitigation strategies on a catchment scale. These results can be integrated into long term Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) strategies. The general objective of this study is to investigate and quantify the impact of ENSO caused climate variability on the water balance and the implications for water resources of a mesoscale tropical catchment.

Summer drought in northern midlatitudes in a time-dependent CO2 climate experiment

A time-dependent climate-change experiment with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model has been used to study changes in the occurrence of drought in summer in southern Europe and central North America. In both regions, precipitation and soil moisture are reduced in a climate of greater atmospheric carbon dioxide. A detailed investigation of the hydrology of the model shows that the drying of the soil comes about through an increase in evaporation in winter and spring, caused by higher temperatures and reduced snow cover, and a decrease in the net input of water in summer. Evaporation is reduced in summer because of the drier soil, but the reduction in precipitation is larger. Three extreme statistics are used to define drought, namely the frequency of low summer precipitation, the occurrence of long dry spells, and the probability of dry soil. The last of these is arguably of the greatest practical importance, but since it is based on soil moisture, of which there are very few observations, the authors’ simulation of it has the least confidence. Furthermore, long time series for daily observed precipitation are not readily available from a sufficient number of stations to enable a thorough evaluation of the model simulation, especially for the frequency of long dry spells, and this increases the systematic uncertainty of the model predictions. All three drought statistics show marked increases owing to the sensitivity of extreme statistics to changes in their distributions. However, the greater likelihood of long dry spells is caused by a tendency in the character of daily rainfall toward fewer events, rather than by the reduction in mean precipitation. The results should not be taken as firm predictions because extreme statistics for small regions cannot be calculated reliably from the output of the current generation of GCMs, but they point to the possibility of large increases in the severity of drought conditions as a consequence of climate change caused by increased CO2.

Coordinated views to assist exploration of spatio-temporal data: a case study

In this paper we focus on providing coordinated visual strategies to assist users in performing tasks driven by the presence of temporal and spatial attributes. We introduce temporal visualization techniques targeted at such tasks, and illustrate their use with an application involving a climate classification process. The climate classification requires extensive Processing of a database containing daily rain precipitation values collected along over fifty years at several spatial locations in the São Paulo state, Brazil. We identify user exploration tasks typically conducted as part of the data preparation required in this process, and then describe how such tasks may be assisted by the multiple visual techniques provided. Issues related to the use of the multiple techniques by an end-user are also discussed.