Study of the Oceanic Heat Budget Components over the Arabian Sea during the Formation and Evolution of Super Cyclone, Gonu

Oceans play a vital role in the global climate system. They absorb the incoming solar energy and redistribute the energy through horizontal and vertical transports. In this context it is important to investigate the variation of heat budget components during the formation of a low-pressure system. In 2007, the monsoon onset was on 28th May. A well- marked low-pressure area was formed in the eastern Arabian Sea after the onset and it further developed into a cyclone. We have analysed the heat budget components during different stages of the cyclone. The data used for the computation of heat budget components is Objectively Analyzed air-sea flux data obtained from WHOI (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) project. Its horizontal resolution is 1° × 1°. Over the low-pressure area, the latent heat flux was 180 Wm−2. It increased to a maximum value of 210 Wm−2 on 1st June 2007, on which the system was intensified into a cyclone (Gonu) with latent heat flux values ranging from 200 to 250 Wm−2. It sharply decreased after the passage of cyclone. The high value of latent heat flux is attributed to the latent heat release due to the cyclone by the formation of clouds. Long wave radiation flux is decreased sharply from 100 Wm−2 to 30 Wm−2 when the low-pressure system intensified into a cyclone. The decrease in long wave radiation flux is due to the presence of clouds. Net heat flux also decreases sharply to −200 Wm−2 on 1st June 2007. After the passage, the flux value increased to normal value (150 Wm−2) within one day. A sharp increase in the sensible heat flux value (20 Wm−2) is observed on 1st June 2007 and it decreased there- after. Short wave radiation flux decreased from 300 Wm−2 to 90 Wm−2 during the intensification on 1st June 2007. Over this region, short wave radiation flux sharply increased to higher value soon after the passage of the cyclone.

Variations of surface boundary layer parameters associated with Cyclone Gonu over the Arabian Sea using QuikSCAT data

This study attempted to quantify the variations of the surface marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) parameters associated with the tropical Cyclone Gonu formed over the Arabian Sea during 30 May–7 June 2007 (just after the monsoon onset). These characteristics were evaluated in terms of surface wind, drag coefficient, wind stress, horizontal divergence, and frictional velocity using 0.5◦ × 0.5◦ resolution Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) wind products. The variation of these different surface boundary layer parameters was studied for three defined cyclone life stages: prior to the formation, during, and after the cyclone passage. Drastic variations of the MABL parameters during the passage of the cyclone were observed. The wind strength increased from 12 to 22 m s−1 in association with different stages of Gonu. Frictional velocity increased from a value of 0.1–0.6 m s−1 during the formative stage of the system to a high value of 0.3–1.4 m s−1 during the mature stage. Drag coefficient varied from 1.5 × 10−3 to 2.5 × 10−3 during the occurrence of Gonu. Wind stress values varied from 0.4 to 1.1 N m−2. Wind stress curl values varied from 10 × 10−7 to 45 × 10−7 N m−3. Generally, convergent winds prevailed with the numerical value of divergence varying from 0 to –4 × 10−5 s−1. Maximum variations of the wind parameters were found in the wall cloud region of the cyclone. The parameters returned to normally observed values in 1–3 days after the cyclone passage

La vulnérabilité face au risque cyclonique : le cas du wilayat Bawshar en Oman

L’objectif de ce mémoire est de réaliser une étude descriptive et évaluative de la vulnérabilité du wilayat Bawshar (district du gouvernorat Mascate, capitale du Sultanat d’Oman), face au risque cyclonique et ce, dans le but de promouvoir la prévention et l’adaptation. À partir des diverses méthodes d’analyse de la vulnérabilité, présentées dans le cadre théorique, nous souhaitons développer une méthode basée sur la prémisse que la vulnérabilité est un système composé de plusieurs facteurs. Cette méthode sera ensuite adaptée au contexte du wilayat Bawshar en lien avec le risque cyclonique. Cette approche est réalisée autour de trois dimensions de la vulnérabilité : physique, sociale et institutionnelle. À la suite de l’application à notre cas d'étude des différentes théories et méthodes analytiques, réalisée grâce à une analyse qualitative et quantitative, générée par une recherche documentaire, des entrevues semi-dirigées, des données statistiques et géomatiques, une observation directe du terrain d’étude ainsi qu’un sondage, voici les importants résultats que nous avons obtenus : les cyclones affectant le gouvernorat de Mascate génèrent d’importants dommages tels que les pertes de vies humaines, la destruction des maisons et des principaux réseaux de transport, ainsi que d’autres perturbations, ceci dû principalement aux inondations émanant des cyclones. Cet endommagement s’explique par la combinaison et l’interaction de plusieurs facteurs tels que les changements océanographiques et atmosphériques affectant le pays ainsi que la topographie et l’hydrologie du site. Les facteurs tels que l’étalement urbain, l’urbanisation de zones à risques, l’explosion démographique, la non diversification de l’économie ainsi que les conditions socio-économiques amplifient la vulnérabilité face au risque cyclonique. Toutefois d’autres facteurs et changements réalisés par le Sultanat d’Oman dans les dernières années diminuent la vulnérabilité de sa population et réduisent l’endommagement à la suite de tels aléas. Parmi eux, nous retrouvons le développement que le pays a soutenu depuis 1970 dans plusieurs secteurs tels que la santé, l’éducation, les infrastructures et l’instauration de politiques de développement durable visant à diversifier l’économie. Depuis le passage des cyclones Gonu et Phet au Sultanat d’Oman, la gestion des risques est au centre même des priorités gouvernementales.

Environmental Influences on the Frequency and Intensity of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclones genesis, movement and intensification are highly dependent on its environment both oceanic and atmospheric. This thesis has made a detailed study on the environmental factors related to tropical cyclones of North Indian Ocean basin. This ocean basin has produced only 6% of the global tropical cyclones annually but it has caused maximum loss of human life associated with the strong winds, heavy rain and particularly storm surges that accompany severe cyclones as they strike the heavily populated coastal areas. Atmospheric factors studied in the thesis are the moisture content of the atmosphere, instability of the atmosphere that produces thunderstorms which are the main source of energy for the tropical cyclone, vertical wind shear to which cyclones are highly sensitive and the Sub-Tropical westerly Jetsteram and its Asian high speed center. The oceanic parameters studied are sea surface temperature and heat storage in the top layer of the ocean. A major portion of the thesis has dealt with the three temporal variabilities of tropical cyclone frequency namely intra-seasonal (mainly the influence of Madden Julian Oscillation), inter- annual (the relation with El Nino Southern Oscillation) and decadal variabilities. Regarding decadal variability, a prominent four decade oscillation in the frequency of both tropical cyclones and monsoon depressions unique to the Indian Ocean basin has been brought out. The thesis consists of 9 chapters.

Assessing the resilience of water supply systems in Oman

Water systems in the Sultanate of Oman are inevitably exposed to varied threats and hazards due to both natural and man-made hazards. Natural disasters, especially tropical cyclone Gonu in 2007, cause immense damage to water supply systems in Oman. At the same time water loss from leaks is a major operational problem. This research developed an integrated approach to identify and rank the risks to the water sources, transmission pipelines and distribution networks in Oman and suggests appropriate mitigation measures. The system resilience was evaluated and an emergency response plan for the water supplies developed. The methodology involved mining the data held by the water supply utility for risk and resilience determination and operational data to support calculations of non-revenue water. Risk factors were identified, ranked and scored at a stakeholder workshop and the operational information required was principally gathered from interviews. Finally, an emergency response plan was developed by evaluating the risk and resilience factors. The risk analysis and assessment used a Coarse Risk Analysis (CRA) approach and risk scores were generated using a simple risk matrix based on WHO recommendations. The likelihoods and consequences of a wide range of hazardous events were identified through a key workshop and subsequent questionnaires. The thesis proposes a method of translating the detailed risk evaluations into resilience scores through a methodology used in transportation networks. A water audit indicated that the percentage of NRW in Oman is greater than 35% which is similar to other Gulf countries but high internationally. The principal strategy for managing NRW used in the research was the AWWA water audit method which includes free to use software and was found to be easy to apply in Oman. The research showed that risks to the main desalination processes can be controlled but the risk due to feed water quality might remain high even after implementing mitigation measures because the intake is close to an oil port with a significant risk of oil contamination and algal blooms. The most severe risks to transmission mains were found to be associated with pipe rather than pump failure. The systems in Oman were found to be moderately resilient, the resilience of desalination plants reasonably high but the transmission mains and pumping stations are very vulnerable. The integrated strategy developed in this study has a wide applicability, particularly in the Gulf area, which may have risks from exceptional events and will be experiencing NRW. Other developing countries may also experience such risks but with different magnitudes and the risk evaluation tables could provide a useful format for further work.

In the Wake of Cyclone Yasi : Facilitation and Evaluation in Community Narrative-Driven Projects

On 3 February 2011, Cyclone Yasi struck the coast of North Queensland, causing widespread damage. The cyclone destroyed the small coastal town of Cardwell, about 165 kilometres north of Townsville, Queensland. This chapter serves as a case study of a collaborative outreach project mobilised in response to this disaster in North Queensland. A public history research team, consisting of practitioners from the Queensland University of Technology’s Creative Industries Faculty, with the support of the Oral History Association of Australia, Queensland branch, partnered with the Cardwell and District Historical Society to support the society to collect community narratives in the wake of Cyclone Yasi.

Computer simulation of the fatigue behaviour of roof cladding during the passage of a tropical cyclone

This paper describes the development of an analytical model used to simulate the fatigue behaviour of roof cladding during the passage of a tropical cyclone. The model incorporated into a computer program uses wind pressure data from wind tunnel tests in combination with time history information on wind speed and direction during a tropical cyclone, and experimental fatigue characteristics data of roof claddings. The wind pressure data is analysed using a rainflow form of analysis, and a fatigue damage index calculated using a modified form of Miner's rule. Some of the results obtained to date and their significance in relation to the review of current fatigue tests are presented. The model appears to be reasonable for comparative estimation of fatigue life, but an improvement of Miner's rule is required for the prediction of actual fatigue life.

Towards an appropriate fatigue loading sequence for roof claddings in cyclone prone areas

Currently two different fatigue tests are being used to investigate the fatigue susceptibility of roof claddings in the cyclone prone areas of Australia. In order to resolve this issue a detailed investigation was conducted to study the nature of cyclonic wind forces using wind tunnel testing and computer modelling and the fatigue behaviour of metal roof claddings using structural testing. This led to the development of an accurate, but complicated loading matrix for a design cyclone. Based on this matrix, a simplified low-high-low loading sequence has been developed for the testing of roofing systems in cyclone prone areas. This paper first reviews the currently used fatigue loading sequences, then presents details of the cyclonic wind loading matrix and finally the development of the new simplified loading sequence. This simplified sequence should become the only suitable test for most of the cyclone prone areas of Australia covered by Region C which suffers from Category 4 cyclones. For Region D which suffers from Category 5 cyclones, the same loading sequence with 20% increased cycles has been recommended. An experimental programme to validate the new simplified loading sequence has been proposed.

Cyclone intensity categories

The weather forecast centers in Australia and many other countries use a scale of cyclone intensity categories (categories 1-5) in their cyclone advisories, which are considered to be indicative of the cyclone damage potential. However, this scale is mainly based on maximum gust wind speeds. In a recent research project involving computer modeling of cyclonic wind forces on roof claddings and fatigue damage to claddings, it was found that cyclone damage not only depends on the maximum gust wind speed, but also on two other cyclone parameters, namely, the forward speed and radius to maximum winds. This paper describes the computer model used in predicting the cyclone damage to claddings and investigates the damage potential of a cyclone as a function of all the relevant cyclone parameters, based on which it attempts to refine the current scale of cyclone intensity categories.

Anatomy of sand beach ridges : evidence from severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi and its predecessors, northeast Queensland, Australia

[1] Four well-identified tropical cyclones over the past century have been responsible for depositing distinct units of predominantly quartzose sand and gravel to form the most seaward beach ridge at several locations along the wet tropical coast of northeast Queensland, Australia. These units deposited by tropical cyclones display a key sedimentary signature characterized by a sharp basal erosional contact, a coarser grain size than the underlying facies and a coarse-skewed trend toward the base. Coarse-skewed distributions with minimal change in mean grain size also characterize the upper levels of the high-energy deposited units at locations within the zone of maximum onshore winds during the tropical cyclone. These same coarse skew distributions are not apparent in sediments deposited at locations where predominantly offshore winds occurred during the cyclone, which in the case of northeast Australia is north of the eye-crossing location. These sedimentary signatures, along with the geochemical indicators and the degraded nature of the microfossil assemblages, have proven to be useful proxies to identify storm-deposited units within the study site and can also provide useful proxies in older beach ridges where advanced pedogenesis has obscured visual stratigraphic markers. As a consequence, more detailed long-term histories of storms and tropical cyclones can now be developed.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

Institutional response and Indigenous experiences of Cyclone Tracy

Early on Christmas morning 1974 Tropical Cyclone Tracy, a Category 4 storm, devastated the Northern Territory city of Darwin leaving only 6% of the city’s housing habitable. The extent of the disaster was largely the result of unregulated and poorly constructed buildings, predominantly housing. While the engineering and reconstruction process demonstrated a very successful response and adaptation to an existing and future risk, the impact of the cyclone of the local community and its Indigenous population in particular, had not been well recorded. NCCARF therefore commissioned a report on the Indigenous experience of Cyclone Tracy to document how Indigenous people were impacted by, responded to, and recovered from Cyclone Tracy in comparison to non-Indigenous groups. The report also considers the research literature on disasters and Indigenous people in the Northern Territory, with a specific focus on cyclones, and considers the socio-political context of Indigenous communities in Darwin prior to Cyclone Tracy.

Adaptation lessons from cyclone Tracy

This case study will review the impact of Tropical Cyclone Tracy on the city and people of Darwin, the Australian engineering and institutional responses that it invoked and the relevance of these lessons to a world threatened by global climate change. At Christmas, 1974, Tropical Cyclone Tracy laid waste the city of Darwin, an iconic episode in the history of Australian natural disasters. It provides one of the clearest and most successful examples worldwide of adaptation to a catastrophe. Following large losses in Townsville from Tropical Cyclone Althea in 1971, the level of destruction in Darwin was such that it led to new regulations mandating the use of the wind code for reconstruction, and eventually to similar regulations for new construction in other cyclone-prone areas of Australia.