Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change

Estimates of the response of crops to climate change rarely quantify the uncertainty inherent in the simulation of both climate and crops. We present a crop simulation ensemble for a location in India, perturbing the response of both crop and climate under both baseline (12 720 simulations) and doubled-CO2 (171720 simulations) climates. Some simulations used parameter values representing genotypic adaptation to mean temperature change. Firstly, observed and simulated yields in the baseline climate were compared. Secondly, the response of yield to changes in mean temperature was examined and compared to that found in the literature. No consistent response to temperature change was found across studies. Thirdly, the relative contribution of uncertainty in crop and climate simulation to the total uncertainty in projected yield changes was examined. In simulations without genotypic adaptation, most of the uncertainty came from the climate model parameters. Comparison with the simulations with genotypic adaptation and with a previous study suggested that the relatively low crop parameter uncertainty derives from the observational constraints on the crop parameters used in this study. Fourthly, the simulations were used, together with an observed dataset and a simple analysis of crop cardinal temperatures and thermal time, to estimate the potential for adaptation using existing cultivars. The results suggest that the germplasm for complete adaptation of groundnut cultivation in western India to a doubled-CO2 environment may not exist. In conjunction with analyses of germplasm and local management

Simulating maize yield in sub‑tropical conditions of southern Brazil using Glam model

The objective of this work was to evaluate the feasibility of simulating maize yield in a sub‑tropical region of southern Brazil using the general large area model (Glam). A 16‑year time series of daily weather data were used. The model was adjusted and tested as an alternative for simulating maize yield at small and large spatial scales. Simulated and observed grain yields were highly correlated (r above 0.8; p<0.01) at large scales (greater than 100,000 km²), with variable and mostly lower correlations (r from 0.65 to 0.87; p<0.1) at small spatial scales (lower than 10,000 km²). Large area models can contribute to monitoring or forecasting regional patterns of variability in maize production in the region, providing a basis for agricultural decision making, and Glam‑Maize is one of the alternatives.

Área foliar e evapotranspiração de callas cultivadas em substrato em função do nível freático

The objective of this study was to determine the influence of five different water levels on the crop development of Calla. The crop parameters evaluated were leaf area and evapotranspiration. The study was conducted in glass greenhouse with 50% of sunlight reduction. The plants were grown in PVC pots with 150 mm diameter, which were filled with substrate. The plant tubers weighed from 10 g to 12 g. The pots were placed within containers, under water level constant automatically.. The table water levels used were 10, 17, 24, 31 and 38 cm. Nine evaluations during the growth cycle checked the growth development. The evaporation varied from 26.89 to 46.14 L.plant-1 for 38 and 10 cm water levels, respectively and leaf area per plant showed 1011.6 to 2016.3 for the same levels. The substrate water was more available in the treatment 24 cm, with more restrictions in the upper and lower treatments. There was positive correlation between leaf area and evapotranspiration at the final of the culture.

Avaliação do intervalo hídrico ótimo em latossolo vermelho cultivado com milho

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Irrigation management with remote sensing: Evaluating irrigation requirement for maize under Mediterranean climate condition

tWater use control methods and water resources planning are of high priority. In irrigated agriculture, theright way to save water is to increase water use efficiency through better management. The present workvalidates procedures and methodologies using remote sensing to determine the water availability in thesoil at each moment, giving the opportunity for the application of the water depth strictly necessaryto optimise crop growth (optimum irrigation timing and irrigation amount). The analysis is applied tothe Irrigation District of Divor, Évora, using 7 experimental plots, which are areas irrigated by centre-pivot systems, cultivated to maize. Data were determined from images of the cultivated surface obtainedby satellite and integrated with atmosphere and crop parameters to calculate biophysical indicatorsand indices of water stress in the vegetation—Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Kc, andKcb. Therefore, evapotranspiration (ETc) was estimated and used to calculate crop water requirement,together with the opportunity and the amount of irrigation water to allocate. Although remote sensingdata available from satellite imagery presented some practical constraints, the study could contribute tothe validation of a new methodology that can be used for irrigation management of a large irrigated area,easier and at lower costs than the traditional FAO recommended crop coefficients method. The remotesensing based methodology can also contribute to significant saves of irrigation water.

Assessing biophysical variable parameters of bean crop with hyperspectral measurements

Recently high spectral resolution sensors have been developed, which allow new and more advanced applications in agriculture. Motivated by the increasing importance of hyperspectral remote sensing data, the need for research is important to define optimal wavebands to estimate biophysical parameters of crop. The use of narrow band vegetation indices (VI) derived from hyperspectral measurements acquired by a field spectrometer was evaluated to estimate bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) grain yield, plant height and leaf area index (LAI). Field canopy reflectance measurements were acquired at six bean growth stages over 48 plots with four water levels (179.5; 256.5; 357.5 and 406.2 mm) and tree nitrogen rates (0; 80 and 160 kg ha-1) and four replicates. The following VI was analyzed: OSNBR (optimum simple narrow-band reflectivity); NB_NDVI (narrow-band normalized difference vegetation index) and NDVI (normalized difference index). The vegetation indices investigated (OSNBR, NB_NDVI and NDVI) were efficient to estimate LAI, plant height and grain yield. During all crop development, the best correlations between biophysical variables and spectral variables were observed on V4 (the third trifoliolate leaves were unfolded in 50 % of plants) and R6 (plants developed first flowers in 50 % of plants) stages, according to the variable analyzed.

Validation of the Deardorff model for estimating energy balance components for a sugarcane crop

The quantification of the available energy in the environment is important because it determines photosynthesis, evapotranspiration and, therefore, the final yield of crops. Instruments for measuring the energy balance are costly and indirect estimation alternatives are desirable. This study assessed the Deardorff's model performance during a cycle of a sugarcane crop in Piracicaba, State of São Paulo, Brazil, in comparison to the aerodynamic method. This mechanistic model simulates the energy fluxes (sensible, latent heat and net radiation) at three levels (atmosphere, canopy and soil) using only air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed measured at a reference level above the canopy, crop leaf area index, and some pre-calibrated parameters (canopy albedo, soil emissivity, atmospheric transmissivity and hydrological characteristics of the soil). The analysis was made for different time scales, insolation conditions and seasons (spring, summer and autumn). Analyzing all data of 15 minute intervals, the model presented good performance for net radiation simulation in different insolations and seasons. The latent heat flux in the atmosphere and the sensible heat flux in the atmosphere did not present differences in comparison to data from the aerodynamic method during the autumn. The sensible heat flux in the soil was poorly simulated by the model due to the poor performance of the soil water balance method. The Deardorff's model improved in general the flux simulations in comparison to the aerodynamic method when more insolation was available in the environment.

Estimation and prediction of parameters and breeding values in soybean using REML/BLUP and Least Squares

The aim of this study was to compare REML/BLUP and Least Square procedures in the prediction and estimation of genetic parameters and breeding values in soybean progenies. F(2:3) and F(4:5) progenies were evaluated in the 2005/06 growing season and the F(2:4) and F(4:6) generations derived thereof were evaluated in 2006/07. These progenies were originated from two semi-early, experimental lines that differ in grain yield. The experiments were conducted in a lattice design and plots consisted of a 2 m row, spaced 0.5 m apart. The trait grain yield per plot was evaluated. It was observed that early selection is more efficient for the discrimination of the best lines from the F(4) generation onwards. No practical differences were observed between the least square and REML/BLUP procedures in the case of the models and simplifications for REML/BLUP used here.

Soybean root growth and crop yield in reponse to liming at the beginning of a no-tillage system

Analyzing the soil near crop roots may reveal limitations to growth and yield even in a no-tillage system. The purpose of the present study was to relate the chemical and physical properties of soil under a no-tillage system to soybean root growth and plant yield after five years of use of different types of limestone and forms of application. A clayey Oxisol received application of dolomitic and calcitic limestones and their 1:1 combination in two forms: surface application, maintained on the soil surface; and incorporated, applied on the surface and incorporated mechanically. Soil physical properties (resistance to mechanical penetration, soil bulk density and soil aggregation), soil chemical properties (pH, exchangeable cations, H+Al, and cation exchange capacity) and plant parameters (root growth system, soybean grain yield, and oat dry matter production) were evaluated five years after setting up the experiment. Incorporation of lime neutralized exchangeable Al up to a depth of 20 cm without affecting the soil physical properties. The soybean root system reached depths of 40 cm or more with incorporated limestone, increasing grain yield an average of 31 % in relation to surface application, which limited the effect of lime up to a depth of 5 cm and root growth up to 20 cm. It was concluded that incorporation of limestone at the beginning of a no-tillage system ensures a favorable environment for root growth and soybean yield, while this intervention does not show long-term effects on soil physical properties under no-tillage. This suggests that there is resilience in the physical properties evaluated.

SWEET SORGHUM PERFORMANCE AFFECTED BY SOIL COMPACTION AND SOWING TIME AS A SECOND CROP IN THE BRAZILIAN CERRADO

ABSTRACT Increasing attention has recently been given to sweet sorghum as a renewable raw material for ethanol production, mainly because its cultivation can be fully mechanized. However, the intensive use of agricultural machinery causes soil structural degradation, especially when performed under inadequate conditions of soil moisture. The aims of this study were to evaluate the physical quality of aLatossolo Vermelho Distroférrico (Oxisol) under compaction and its components on sweet sorghum yield forsecond cropsowing in the Brazilian Cerrado (Brazilian tropical savanna). The experiment was conducted in a randomized block design, in a split plot arrangement, with four replications. Five levels of soil compaction were tested from the passing of a tractor at the following traffic intensities: 0 (absence of additional compaction), 1, 2, 7, and 15 passes over the same spot. The subplots consisted of three different sowing times of sweet sorghum during the off-season of 2013 (20/01, 17/02, and 16/03). Soil physical quality was measured through the least limiting water range (LLWR) and soil water limitation; crop yield and technological parameters were also measured. Monitoring of soil water contents indicated a reduction in the frequency of water content in the soil within the limits of the LLWR (Fwithin) as agricultural traffic increased (T0 = T1 = T2>T7>T15), and crop yield is directly associated with soil water content. The crop sown in January had higher industrial quality; however, there was stalk yield reduction when bulk density was greater than 1.26 Mg m-3, with a maximum yield of 50 Mg ha-1 in this sowing time. Cultivation of sweet sorghum as a second crop is a promising alternative, but care should be taken in cultivation under conditions of pronounced climatic risks, due to low stalk yield.

Soil biological attributes in pastures of different ages in a crop-livestock integrated system

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of the pasture (Urochloa brizantha) component age on soil biological properties, in a crop-livestock integrated system. The experiment was carried out in a Brazilian savannah (Cerrado) area with 92 ha, divided into six pens of approximately 15 ha. Each pen represented a different stage of the pasture component: formation, P0; one year, P1; two years, P2; three years, P3; and final with 3.5 years, Pf. Samples were taken in the 0-10 cm soil depth. The soil biological parameters - microbial biomass carbon (MBC), microbial biomass respiration (C-CO2), metabolic quotient (qCO2), microbial quotient (q mic), and total organic carbon (TOC) - were evaluated and compared among different stages of the pasture, and between an adjacent area under native Cerrado and another area under degraded pasture (PCD). The MBC, q mic and TOC increased and qCO2 reduced under the different pasture stages. Compared to PCD, the pasture stages had higher MBC, q mic and TOC, and lower qCO2. The crop-livestock integrated system improved soil microbiological parameters and immobilized carbon in the soil in comparison to the degraded pasture.

Genetic parameters and estimated genetic gains in young rubber tree progenies

The objective of this work was to assess the genetic parameters and to estimate genetic gains in young rubber tree progenies. The experiments were carried out during three years, in a randomized block design, with six replicates and ten plants per plot, in three representative Hevea crop regions of the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Twenty-two progenies were evaluated, from three to five years old, for rubber yield and annual girth growth. Genetic gain was estimated with the multi-effect index (MEI). Selection by progenies means provided greater estimated genetic gain than selection based on individuals, since heritability values of progeny means were greater than the ones of individual heritability, for both evaluated variables, in all the assessment years. The selection of the three best progenies for rubber yield provided a selection gain of 1.28 g per plant. The genetic gains estimated with MEI using data from early assessments (from 3 to 5-year-old) were generally high for annual girth growth and rubber yield. The high genetic gains for annual girth growth in the first year of assessment indicate that progenies can be selected at the beginning of the breeding program. Population effective size was consistent with the three progenies selected, showing that they were not related and that the population genetic variability is ensured. Early selection with the genetic gains estimated by MEI can be made on rubber tree progenies.

A priori parameterisation of the CERES soil-crop models and tests against several European data sets

Mechanistic soil-crop models have become indispensable tools to investigate the effect of management practices on the productivity or environmental impacts of arable crops. Ideally these models may claim to be universally applicable because they simulate the major processes governing the fate of inputs such as fertiliser nitrogen or pesticides. However, because they deal with complex systems and uncertain phenomena, site-specific calibration is usually a prerequisite to ensure their predictions are realistic. This statement implies that some experimental knowledge on the system to be simulated should be available prior to any modelling attempt, and raises a tremendous limitation to practical applications of models. Because the demand for more general simulation results is high, modellers have nevertheless taken the bold step of extrapolating a model tested within a limited sample of real conditions to a much larger domain. While methodological questions are often disregarded in this extrapolation process, they are specifically addressed in this paper, and in particular the issue of models a priori parameterisation. We thus implemented and tested a standard procedure to parameterize the soil components of a modified version of the CERES models. The procedure converts routinely-available soil properties into functional characteristics by means of pedo-transfer functions. The resulting predictions of soil water and nitrogen dynamics, as well as crop biomass, nitrogen content and leaf area index were compared to observations from trials conducted in five locations across Europe (southern Italy, northern Spain, northern France and northern Germany). In three cases, the model’s performance was judged acceptable when compared to experimental errors on the measurements, based on a test of the model’s root mean squared error (RMSE). Significant deviations between observations and model outputs were however noted in all sites, and could be ascribed to various model routines. In decreasing importance, these were: water balance, the turnover of soil organic matter, and crop N uptake. A better match to field observations could therefore be achieved by visually adjusting related parameters, such as field-capacity water content or the size of soil microbial biomass. As a result, model predictions fell within the measurement errors in all sites for most variables, and the model’s RMSE was within the range of published values for similar tests. We conclude that the proposed a priori method yields acceptable simulations with only a 50% probability, a figure which may be greatly increased through a posteriori calibration. Modellers should thus exercise caution when extrapolating their models to a large sample of pedo-climatic conditions for which they have only limited information.

Comparison between land suitability and actual crop distribution in an irrigation district of the Ebro valley (Spain)

El objetivo de la presente investigación fue analizar la correspondencia entre los resultados de una evaluación de tierras con la distribución real de los cultivos. Para ello la aptitud biofísica de las tierras se comparó con diferentes tipologías de frecuencia de ocurrencia de los cultivos y rotaciones derivadas de mapas de cultivos multitemporales. La investigación fue llevada a cabo en el distrito de riego de Flumen (33.000 ha), localizado en el valle del Ebro (NE España). La evaluación de tierras se basó en una cartografía de suelos 1:100.000, según el esquema FAO, para los principales cultivos presentes en el área de estudio (alfalfa, cereales de invierno, maíz, arroz y girasol). Se utilizaron tres mapas de frecuencia de cultivos y un mapa de rotaciones, derivado de una serie temporal de imágenes Landsat TM y ETM+ del periodo 1993-2000, y se compararon con los mapas de aptitud de tierras para los diferentes cultivos. Se analizó estadísticamente (Pearson χ2, Cramer V, Gamma y Somers D) la relación entre los dos tipos de variables. Los resultados muestran la existencia de una relación significativa (P=0,001) entre la localización de los cultivos y la idoneidad de las tierras, excepto de cultivos oportunistas como el girasol, muy influenciado por las subvenciones en el periodo estudiado. Las rotaciones basadas en la alfalfa muestran los mayores porcentajes (52%) de ocupación en las tierras más aptas para la agricultura en el área de estudio. El presente enfoque multitemporal de análisis de la información ofrece una visión más real que la comparación entre un mapa de evaluación de tierras y un mapa de cultivos de una fecha determinada, cuando se valora el grado de acuerdo entre las recomendaciones sobre la aptitud de las tierras y los cultivos realmente cultivados por los agricultores.

Estimates of genetic parameters for fruit yield and quality in custard apple progenies

Apparently, there are no custard apple cultivars defined for the northeastern region of Brazil. The establishment of breeding programs aimed at the selection of types from productive locations for later cloning is desirable. This work's objective was to evaluate the yield (during the first three crops) and quality (first crop) of fruits from 20 half-sibling custard apple tree progenies, selected from home orchards. An additional objective was to estimate genetic parameters for the traits evaluated. A micro sprinkling-irrigated experiment was conducted in Mossoró-RN, Brazil, as random blocks with five replications. In characteristics evaluated for periods longer than a year (diameter, height and mean weight of fruits, number of fruits ha-1 and fruit yield (kg ha-1), and a split-plot design was adopted, with progenies considered as plots and annual cropping seasons as subplots. The best progenies in terms of fruit yield (A3 and A4) are not necessarily the best for fruit dimensions and fruit mean weight (A2, FE4, JG1, JG2, SM1, SM7, and SM8). These progenies show great potential to be used in future studies on crosses or on vegetative propagation. In this regard, progeny JG2 should be highlighted as promising in terms of yield and fruit size. The progenies are not different with regard to percentages (in relation to mean fruit mass) of pericarp, endocarp, seeds, and receptacle, in the fruit, and fruit volume, number of seeds/fruit, and total soluble solids content in the fruit pulp, but progeny FE4 presents higher total titratable acidity in the fruit pulp. Narrow-sense heritability estimates were relatively high for all characteristics in which there was variability between progenies, with higher values for number of fruits ha-1 (80 %) and fruit yield (78 %). Relatively high coefficients of genotypic variation (around 20%) were observed for number of fruits ha-1 and fruit yield, with lower values for the other characteristics. There were positive genotypic and phenotypic correlations between fruit diameter (FD) and fruit height, FD and mean fruit weight, and number of fruits ha-1 and fruit yield.