Differences in the performance of safety performance functions estimated for total crash count and for crash count by crash type

In recent years the development and use of crash prediction models for roadway safety analyses have received substantial attention. These models, also known as safety performance functions (SPFs), relate the expected crash frequency of roadway elements (intersections, road segments, on-ramps) to traffic volumes and other geometric and operational characteristics. A commonly practiced approach for applying intersection SPFs is to assume that crash types occur in fixed proportions (e.g., rear-end crashes make up 20% of crashes, angle crashes 35%, and so forth) and then apply these fixed proportions to crash totals to estimate crash frequencies by type. As demonstrated in this paper, such a practice makes questionable assumptions and results in considerable error in estimating crash proportions. Through the use of rudimentary SPFs based solely on the annual average daily traffic (AADT) of major and minor roads, the homogeneity-in-proportions assumption is shown not to hold across AADT, because crash proportions vary as a function of both major and minor road AADT. For example, with minor road AADT of 400 vehicles per day, the proportion of intersecting-direction crashes decreases from about 50% with 2,000 major road AADT to about 15% with 82,000 AADT. Same-direction crashes increase from about 15% to 55% for the same comparison. The homogeneity-in-proportions assumption should be abandoned, and crash type models should be used to predict crash frequency by crash type. SPFs that use additional geometric variables would only exacerbate the problem quantified here. Comparison of models for different crash types using additional geometric variables remains the subject of future research.

Parental leave regulations and the persistence of the male breadwinner model: Using fuzzy-set ideal type analysis to assess gender equality in an enlarged Europe

his paper uses fuzzy-set ideal type analysis to assess the conformity of European leave regulations to four theoretical ideal typical divisions of labour: male breadwinner, caregiver parity, universal breadwinner and universal caregiver. In contrast to the majority of previous studies, the focus of this analysis is on the extent to which leave regulations promote gender equality in the family and the transformation of traditional gender roles. The results of this analysis demonstrate that European countries cluster into five models that only partly coincide with countries’ geographical proximity. Second, none of the countries considered constitutes a universal caregiver model, while the male breadwinner ideal continues to provide the normative reference point for parental leave regulations in a large number of European states. Finally, we witness a growing emphasis at the national and EU levels concerning the universal breadwinner ideal, which leaves gender inequality in unpaid work unproblematized.

Demand-driven type analysis for dynamically-typed functional languages

Thèse diffusée initialement dans le cadre d'un projet pilote des Presses de l'Université de Montréal/Centre d'édition numérique UdeM (1997-2008) avec l'autorisation de l'auteur.

Using synoptic type analysis to understand New Zealand climate during the Mid-Holocene

Diagnosing the climate of New Zealand from low-resolution General Circulation Models (GCMs) is notoriously difficult due to the interaction of the complex topography and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitude westerly winds. Therefore, methods of downscaling synoptic scale model data for New Zealand are useful to help understand past climate. New Zealand also has a wealth of palaeoclimate-proxy data to which the downscaled model output can be compared, and to provide a qualitative method of assessing the capability of GCMs to represent, in this case, the climate 6000 yr ago in the Mid-Holocene. In this paper, a synoptic weather and climate regime classification system using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of GCM and reanalysis data was used. The climate regimes are associated with surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies over New Zealand. From the analysis in this study, we find at 6000 BP that increased trough activity in summer and autumn led to increased precipitation, with an increased north-south pressure gradient ("zonal events") in winter and spring leading to drier conditions. Opposing effects of increased (decreased) temperature are also seen in spring (autumn) in the South Island, which are associated with the increased zonal (trough) events; however, the circulation induced changes in temperature are likely to have been of secondary importance to the insolation induced changes. Evidence from the palaeoclimate-proxy data suggests that the Mid-Holocene was characterized by increased westerly wind events in New Zealand, which agrees with the preference for trough and zonal regimes in the models.

Inferring determinacy and mutual exclusion in logic programs using mode and type analysis.

We propose an analysis for detecting procedures and goals that are deterministic (i.e., that produce at most one solution at most once), or predicates whose clause tests are mutually exclusive (which implies that at most one of their clauses will succeed) even if they are not deterministic. The analysis takes advantage of the pruning operator in order to improve the detection of mutual exclusion and determinacy. It also supports arithmetic equations and disequations, as well as equations and disequations on terms, for which we give a complete satisfiability testing algorithm, w.r.t. available type information. We have implemented the analysis and integrated it in the CiaoPP system, which also infers automatically the mode and type information that our analysis takes as input. Experiments performed on this implementation show that the analysis is fairly accurate and efficient.

Sized Type Analysis for Logic Programs (Technical Communication)

We present a novel analysis for relating the sizes of terms and subterms occurring at diferent argument positions in logic predicates. We extend and enrich the concept of sized type as a representation that incorporates structural (shape) information and allows expressing both lower and upper bounds on the size of a set of terms and their subterms at any position and depth. For example, expressing bounds on the length of lists of numbers, together with bounds on the values of all of their elements. The analysis is developed using abstract interpretation and the novel abstract operations are based on setting up and solving recurrence relations between sized types. It has been integrated, together with novel resource usage and cardinality analyses, in the abstract interpretation framework in the Ciao preprocessor, CiaoPP, in order to assess both the accuracy of the new size analysis and its usefulness in the resource usage estimation application. We show that the proposed sized types are a substantial improvement over the previous size analyses present in CiaoPP, and also benefit the resource analysis considerably, allowing the inference of equal or better bounds than comparable state of the art systems.

On the fly type specialization without type analysis

Les langages de programmation typés dynamiquement tels que JavaScript et Python repoussent la vérification de typage jusqu’au moment de l’exécution. Afin d’optimiser la performance de ces langages, les implémentations de machines virtuelles pour langages dynamiques doivent tenter d’éliminer les tests de typage dynamiques redondants. Cela se fait habituellement en utilisant une analyse d’inférence de types. Cependant, les analyses de ce genre sont souvent coûteuses et impliquent des compromis entre le temps de compilation et la précision des résultats obtenus. Ceci a conduit à la conception d’architectures de VM de plus en plus complexes. Nous proposons le versionnement paresseux de blocs de base, une technique de compilation à la volée simple qui élimine efficacement les tests de typage dynamiques redondants sur les chemins d’exécution critiques. Cette nouvelle approche génère paresseusement des versions spécialisées des blocs de base tout en propageant de l’information de typage contextualisée. Notre technique ne nécessite pas l’utilisation d’analyses de programme coûteuses, n’est pas contrainte par les limitations de précision des analyses d’inférence de types traditionnelles et évite la complexité des techniques d’optimisation spéculatives. Trois extensions sont apportées au versionnement de blocs de base afin de lui donner des capacités d’optimisation interprocédurale. Une première extension lui donne la possibilité de joindre des informations de typage aux propriétés des objets et aux variables globales. Puis, la spécialisation de points d’entrée lui permet de passer de l’information de typage des fonctions appellantes aux fonctions appellées. Finalement, la spécialisation des continuations d’appels permet de transmettre le type des valeurs de retour des fonctions appellées aux appellants sans coût dynamique. Nous démontrons empiriquement que ces extensions permettent au versionnement de blocs de base d’éliminer plus de tests de typage dynamiques que toute analyse d’inférence de typage statique.

On the fly type specialization without type analysis

Les langages de programmation typés dynamiquement tels que JavaScript et Python repoussent la vérification de typage jusqu’au moment de l’exécution. Afin d’optimiser la performance de ces langages, les implémentations de machines virtuelles pour langages dynamiques doivent tenter d’éliminer les tests de typage dynamiques redondants. Cela se fait habituellement en utilisant une analyse d’inférence de types. Cependant, les analyses de ce genre sont souvent coûteuses et impliquent des compromis entre le temps de compilation et la précision des résultats obtenus. Ceci a conduit à la conception d’architectures de VM de plus en plus complexes. Nous proposons le versionnement paresseux de blocs de base, une technique de compilation à la volée simple qui élimine efficacement les tests de typage dynamiques redondants sur les chemins d’exécution critiques. Cette nouvelle approche génère paresseusement des versions spécialisées des blocs de base tout en propageant de l’information de typage contextualisée. Notre technique ne nécessite pas l’utilisation d’analyses de programme coûteuses, n’est pas contrainte par les limitations de précision des analyses d’inférence de types traditionnelles et évite la complexité des techniques d’optimisation spéculatives. Trois extensions sont apportées au versionnement de blocs de base afin de lui donner des capacités d’optimisation interprocédurale. Une première extension lui donne la possibilité de joindre des informations de typage aux propriétés des objets et aux variables globales. Puis, la spécialisation de points d’entrée lui permet de passer de l’information de typage des fonctions appellantes aux fonctions appellées. Finalement, la spécialisation des continuations d’appels permet de transmettre le type des valeurs de retour des fonctions appellées aux appellants sans coût dynamique. Nous démontrons empiriquement que ces extensions permettent au versionnement de blocs de base d’éliminer plus de tests de typage dynamiques que toute analyse d’inférence de typage statique.

Genetic structure and mating type analysis of the Pyricularia oryzae population causing widespread epidemics in southern Brazil.

Blast is a major disease of rice in Brazil, the largest rice-producing country outside Asia. This study aimed to assess the genetic structure and mating-type frequency in a contemporary Pyricularia oryzae population, which caused widespread epidemics during the 2012/13 season in the Brazilian lowland subtropical region. Symptomatic leaves and panicles were sampled at flooded rice fields in the states of Rio Grande do Sul (RS, 34 fields) and Santa Catarina (SC, 21 fields). The polymorphism at ten simple sequence repeats (SSR or microsatellite) loci and the presence of MAT1-1 or MAT1-2 idiomorphs were assessed in a population comprised of 187 isolates. Only the MAT1-2 idiomorph was found and 162 genotypes were identified by the SSR analysis. A discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC) of SSR data resolved four genetic groups, which were strongly associated with the cultivar of origin of the isolates. There was high level of genotypic diversity and moderate level of gene diversity regardless whether isolates were grouped in subpopulations based on geographic region, cultivar host or cultivar within region. While regional subpopulations were weakly differentiated, high genetic differentiation was found among subpopulations comprised of isolates from different cultivars. The data suggest that the rice blast pathogen population in southern Brazil is comprised of clonal lineages that are adapting to specific cultivar hosts. Farmers should avoid the use of susceptible cultivars over large areas and breeders should focus at enlarging the genetic basis of new cultivars.

Big data analytics and visualization with spatio-temporal correlations for traffic accidents

Big data analytics for traffic accidents is a hot topic and has significant values for a smart and safe traffic in the city. Based on the massive traffic accident data from October 2014 to March 2015 in Xiamen, China, we propose a novel accident occurrences analytics method in both spatial and temporal dimensions to predict when and where an accident with a specific crash type will occur consequentially by whom. Firstly, we analyze and visualize accident occurrences in both temporal and spatial view. Second, we illustrate spatio-temporal visualization results through two case studies in multiple road segments, and the impact of weather on crash types. These findings of accident occurrences analysis and visualization would not only help traffic police department implement instant personnel assignments among simultaneous accidents, but also inform individual drivers about accident-prone sections and the time span which requires their most attention.

Applying data mining to assess crash risk on curves

The wide range of contributing factors and circumstances surrounding crashes on road curves suggest that no single intervention can prevent these crashes. This paper presents a novel methodology, based on data mining techniques, to identify contributing factors and the relationship between them. It identifies contributing factors that influence the risk of a crash. Incident records, described using free text, from a large insurance company were analysed with rough set theory. Rough set theory was used to discover dependencies among data, and reasons using the vague, uncertain and imprecise information that characterised the insurance dataset. The results show that male drivers, who are between 50 and 59 years old, driving during evening peak hours are involved with a collision, had a lowest crash risk. Drivers between 25 and 29 years old, driving from around midnight to 6 am and in a new car has the highest risk. The analysis of the most significant contributing factors on curves suggests that drivers with driving experience of 25 to 42 years, who are driving a new vehicle have the highest crash cost risk, characterised by the vehicle running off the road and hitting a tree. This research complements existing statistically based tools approach to analyse road crashes. Our data mining approach is supported with proven theory and will allow road safety practitioners to effectively understand the dependencies between contributing factors and the crash type with the view to designing tailored countermeasures.

A simultaneous equations model of crash frequency by collision type for rural intersections

Safety at roadway intersections is of significant interest to transportation professionals due to the large number of intersections in transportation networks, the complexity of traffic movements at these locations that leads to large numbers of conflicts, and the wide variety of geometric and operational features that define them. A variety of collision types including head-on, sideswipe, rear-end, and angle crashes occur at intersections. While intersection crash totals may not reveal a site deficiency, over exposure of a specific crash type may reveal otherwise undetected deficiencies. Thus, there is a need to be able to model the expected frequency of crashes by collision type at intersections to enable the detection of problems and the implementation of effective design strategies and countermeasures. Statistically, it is important to consider modeling collision type frequencies simultaneously to account for the possibility of common unobserved factors affecting crash frequencies across crash types. In this paper, a simultaneous equations model of crash frequencies by collision type is developed and presented using crash data for rural intersections in Georgia. The model estimation results support the notion of the presence of significant common unobserved factors across crash types, although the impact of these factors on parameter estimates is found to be rather modest.

Modeling crash outcome probabilities at rural intersections: Application of hierarchical binomial logistic models

It is important to examine the nature of the relationships between roadway, environmental, and traffic factors and motor vehicle crashes, with the aim to improve the collective understanding of causal mechanisms involved in crashes and to better predict their occurrence. Statistical models of motor vehicle crashes are one path of inquiry often used to gain these initial insights. Recent efforts have focused on the estimation of negative binomial and Poisson regression models (and related deviants) due to their relatively good fit to crash data. Of course analysts constantly seek methods that offer greater consistency with the data generating mechanism (motor vehicle crashes in this case), provide better statistical fit, and provide insight into data structure that was previously unavailable. One such opportunity exists with some types of crash data, in particular crash-level data that are collected across roadway segments, intersections, etc. It is argued in this paper that some crash data possess hierarchical structure that has not routinely been exploited. This paper describes the application of binomial multilevel models of crash types using 548 motor vehicle crashes collected from 91 two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia. Crash prediction models are estimated for angle, rear-end, and sideswipe (both same direction and opposite direction) crashes. The contributions of the paper are the realization of hierarchical data structure and the application of a theoretically appealing and suitable analysis approach for multilevel data, yielding insights into intersection-related crashes by crash type.

Modeling crash types: New insights into the effects of covariates on crashes at rural intersections

Many studies focused on the development of crash prediction models have resulted in aggregate crash prediction models to quantify the safety effects of geometric, traffic, and environmental factors on the expected number of total, fatal, injury, and/or property damage crashes at specific locations. Crash prediction models focused on predicting different crash types, however, have rarely been developed. Crash type models are useful for at least three reasons. The first is motivated by the need to identify sites that are high risk with respect to specific crash types but that may not be revealed through crash totals. Second, countermeasures are likely to affect only a subset of all crashes—usually called target crashes—and so examination of crash types will lead to improved ability to identify effective countermeasures. Finally, there is a priori reason to believe that different crash types (e.g., rear-end, angle, etc.) are associated with road geometry, the environment, and traffic variables in different ways and as a result justify the estimation of individual predictive models. The objectives of this paper are to (1) demonstrate that different crash types are associated to predictor variables in different ways (as theorized) and (2) show that estimation of crash type models may lead to greater insights regarding crash occurrence and countermeasure effectiveness. This paper first describes the estimation results of crash prediction models for angle, head-on, rear-end, sideswipe (same direction and opposite direction), and pedestrian-involved crash types. Serving as a basis for comparison, a crash prediction model is estimated for total crashes. Based on 837 motor vehicle crashes collected on two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia, six prediction models are estimated resulting in two Poisson (P) models and four NB (NB) models. The analysis reveals that factors such as the annual average daily traffic, the presence of turning lanes, and the number of driveways have a positive association with each type of crash, whereas median widths and the presence of lighting are negatively associated. For the best fitting models covariates are related to crash types in different ways, suggesting that crash types are associated with different precrash conditions and that modeling total crash frequency may not be helpful for identifying specific countermeasures.