Cournot duopoly with competition in the R&D expenditures

We present a new R&D investment in a Cournot Duopoly model and we analyze the different possible types of Nash R&D investments. We observe that the new production costs region can be decomposed in three economical regions, depending on the Nash R&D investment, showing the relevance of the use of patents in new technologies.

A Comparison of Two-Market Bertrand Duopoly and Two-Market Cournot Duopoly

In a two-market Bertrand duopoly,each of two firms chooses one of two markets and a price in that market. All four choices are made simultaneously. In a two-market Cournot duopoly, the firms choose quantities rather than prices.It is well known that in the one-market case the threat of price undercutting means that Bertrand equilibrium prices and profits will be lower and quantities higher than Cournot equilibrium prices, profits and quantities.We find a quite different consequence of price undercutting in two-market duopoly. In the two-market case the threat of price undercutting means that Bertrand equilibria are in continuous mixed strategies, while every Cournot duopoly has an equilibrium in pure strategies, or in strategies that are pure in each market.

Endogenous transportation technology in a cournot differential game with intraindustry trade

We investigate a dynamic Cournot duopoly with intraindustry trade, where firms invest in R&D to reduce the level of iceberg transportation costs. We adopt both open-loop and closed-loop equilibrium concepts, showing that a unique (saddle point) steady state exists in both cases. In the open-loop model, optimal investments and the resulting efficiency of transportation technology are independent of the relative size of the two countries. On the contrary, in the closed-loop case firms’ R&D incentives are driven by the relative size of the two countries. Policy implications are also evaluated.

Royalty Licensing

Published as an article in: Economics Letters, 2010, vol. 107, issue 2, pages 284-287.

Two-part tariff licensing mechanisms

Most of the patent licensing agreements that are observed include royalties, in particular per-unit or ad valorem royalties. This paper shows that in a differ entiated duopoly that competes á la Cournot the optimal contract for an internal patentee always includes a positive royalty. Moreover, we show that the patentee would prefer to use ad valorem royalties rather than per-unit royalties when goods are complements or when they are substitutes and the degree of differentiation is suffciently low. The reason is that by including an ad valorem royalty in the licensing contract the patentee can commit strategically to be more (less) aggressive when goods are complements (substitutes) since his licensing revenues become increasing with the price of output of his rival. As a result, licensing may hurt consumers although it always increases social welfare.

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Sequential technology adoption with asymmetric firms

We analyse the incentives and welfare implications of costly technology adoption in a two-period duopoly model where firms have different amounts of capital. We also extend our framework to an open economy set-up and examine the relationship between trade and technology adoption. Our findings are as follows. First, no monotone relationship exists between the threshold cost of adoption and capital shares. Second, an unequal distribution of capital, despite lessening competition, can increase total surplus. Third, trade generally encourages adoption of modern technology unless the share of capital for the adopters is too low.

Illegal immigration, technology adoption and welfare

A debate in the illegal immigration and technology adoption literature suggests that hiring illegal immigrants may be hindering the adoption of new technology, which in turn harms a country’s productivity growth. This paper analyses an individual firm’s behaviour regarding new technology adoption in the presence of illegal immigrants. We assume a Ricardian economy and analyse immigration of illegal unskilled workers in a model of Cournot duopoly where firms are producing homogenous and non-traded goods, and hiring illegal immigrants. A two-stage simultaneous move game is set up: in Stage 1, given the opportunity of hiring illegal immigrants, an individual firm decides whether to adopt the new technology or not, where technology adoption is costly. In Stage 2, each firm will choose the Cournot output level. Solving this two-stage game, we conclude that (i) given the opportunity of hiring illegal immigrants, an individual firm may adopt the new technology and (ii) in the case of zero tolerance of illegal immigration, technology adoption may increase but such technology adoption is immiserizing as it reduces the total surplus.

Ensaios em gestão de risco e regulação bancária

Esta tese é constituída por três ensaios. O primeiro ensaio analisa a informação pública disponível sobre o risco das carteiras de crédito dos bancos brasileiros, sendo dividido em dois capítulos. O primeiro analisa a limitação da informação pública disponibilizada pelos bancos e pelo Banco Central, quando comparada a informação gerencial disponível internamente pelos bancos. Concluiu-se que existe espaço para o aumento da transparência na divulgação das informações, fato que vem ocorrendo gradativamente no Brasil através de novas normas relacionadas ao Pilar 3 de Basileia II e à divulgação de informações mais detalhas pelo Bacen, como, por exemplo, aquelas do “Top50” . A segunda parte do primeiro ensaio mostra a discrepância entre o índice de inadimplência contábil (NPL) e a probabilidade de inadimplência (PD) e também discute a relação entre provisão e perda esperada. Através da utilização de matrizes de migração e de uma simulação baseada na sobreposição de safras de carteira de crédito de grandes bancos, concluiu-se que o índice de inadimplência subestima a PD e que a provisão constituída pelos bancos é menor que a perda esperada do SFN. O segundo ensaio relaciona a gestão de risco à discriminação de preço. Foi desenvolvido um modelo que consiste em um duopólio de Cournot em um mercado de crédito de varejo, em que os bancos podem realizar discriminação de terceiro grau. Neste modelo, os potenciais tomadores de crédito podem ser de dois tipos, de baixo ou de alto risco, sendo que tomadores de baixo risco possuem demanda mais elástica. Segundo o modelo, se o custo para observar o tipo do cliente for alto, a estratégia dos bancos será não discriminar (pooling equilibrium). Mas, se este custo for suficientemente baixo, será ótimo para os bancos cobrarem taxas diferentes para cada grupo. É argumentado que o Acordo de Basileia II funcionou como um choque exógeno que deslocou o equilíbrio para uma situação com maior discriminação. O terceiro ensaio é divido em dois capítulos. O primeiro discute a aplicação dos conceitos de probabilidade subjetiva e incerteza Knigthiana a modelos de VaR e a importância da avaliação do “risco de modelo”, que compreende os riscos de estimação, especificação e identificação. O ensaio propõe que a metodologia dos “quatro elementos” de risco operacional (dados internos, externos, ambiente de negócios e cenários) seja estendida à mensuração de outros riscos (risco de mercado e risco de crédito). A segunda parte deste último ensaio trata da aplicação do elemento análise de cenários para a mensuração da volatilidade condicional nas datas de divulgação econômica relevante, especificamente nos dias de reuniões do Copom.

A Kreps-Scheinkman-állítás érvényessége lineáris keresletű vegyes duopóliumok esetén (The Kreps and Scheinkman result remains valid for mixed duopolies with linear demand)

Vegyes oligopóliumoknak nevezzük az olyan piacszerkezeteket, amelyek esetében a magánvállalatok mellett állami vállalatok is tevékenykednek. A vegyes oligopóliumokban az állami vállalatok részben vagy egészében a társadalmi többletet kívánják maximalizálni. Olyan vegyes duopóliumot vizsgálunk, amelyben a vállalatok előbb kiépítik kapacitásaikat, majd meghatározzák termékük kínálati árát. Kreps-Scheinkman [1983] tisztán magánvállalatos duopóliumokra vizsgált ilyen két időszakos modellt, és megállapította, hogy az első időszaki egyensúlyi kapacitások megegyeznek az azonos költségszerkezetű és kínálati viszonyú Cournot-duopólium egyensúlyi kibocsátásaival. Tanulmányunkban Kreps-Scheinkman [1983] eredményét kiterjesztjük a vegyes duopóliumok - lineáris keresleti görbe és konstans egységköltségek melletti - esetére. _____ In mixed oligopolies, private firms compete with a public firm, which at least partially aims to maximize social surplus. The authors investigate mixed duopolies in which the firms first build capacities simultaneously and then set their prices simultaneously as well. For the same two-stage game with purely private firms Kreps and Scheinkman demonstrated in 1983 that the first-stage equilibrium capacities of the two-stage game are identical with the equilibrium outputs of the Cournot duopoly. This paper extends Kreps and Scheinkman's results to mixed duopolies with linear demands and constant unit costs. It is shown that quantity pre-commitment and Bertrand competition also yield to Cournot outcomes when a public firm is involved, not only in the case of private firms.

Optimal vigilance level and hiring illegal immigrants

This paper assumes a Ricardian Economy and analyzes migration of illegal unskilled workers in a model of Cournot Duopoly where firms are producing homogenous and non-traded goods, and hiring illegal immigrants. The focus is on the behaviours of firms and the implications for the output, prices and employment of domestic workers in that industry. A two-stage simultaneous move game is set up: In Stage 1, for a given technology and vigilance level, each individual firm will decide whether to hire illegal immigrants. In Stage 2, each firm will choose the Cournot output level. Using this structure, we provide additional insights as to why firms hire illegal workers and what motivates these firms in their hiring practices. Furthermore the presence of illegal immigrants may create more employment for domestic workers and a social planner can be strategic in choosing optimal level of vigilance as we have shown that multiple solutions for optimal vigilance are possible and also Pareto ranked.

Two-production-period in a duopoly with nonprofit and for-profit firms

We investigate endogenous roles in a competition between a nonprofit firm and a for-profit firm in a homogeneous goods market, by allowing two production periods. We find that the Cournot-type equilibrium and one Stackelberg-type equilibrium where the nonprofit firm becomes the follower exist; however, another tackelberg-type equilibrium where the nonprofit firm becomes the leader does not exist.

Desirable role in a price-setting international mixed duopoly

In this paper, we study the order of moves in a mixed international duopoly for differentiated goods, where firms choose whether to set prices sequentially or simultaneously. We discuss the desirable role of the public firm by comparing welfare among three games. We find that, in the three possible roles, the domestic public firm put a lower price, and then produces more than the foreign private firm.

Desirable role in an international duopoly model with tariffs

In this paper, we study an international market model in which the home government imposes a tariff on the imported goods. The model has two stages. In the first stage, the home government chooses an import tariff to maximize a function that cares about the home firm’s profit and the total revenue. Then, the firms engage in a Cournot or in a Stackelberg competition. We compare the results obtained in the three different ways of moving on the decision make of the firms.

Privatization in a mixed duopoly with environmental taxes

In this paper, we study the effects of environmental and privatization in a mixed duopoly, in which the public firm aims to maximize the social welfare. The model has two stages. In the first stage, the government sets the environmental tax. Then, the firms engage in a Cournot competition, choosing output and pollution abatement levels.