Modeling multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with the double smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH Model

In this paper, we propose a multivariate GARCH model with a time-varying conditional correlation structure. The new double smooth transition conditional correlation (DSTCC) GARCH model extends the smooth transition conditional correlation (STCC) GARCH model of Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2005) by including another variable according to which the correlations change smoothly between states of constant correlations. A Lagrange multiplier test is derived to test the constancy of correlations against the DSTCC-GARCH model, and another one to test for another transition in the STCC-GARCH framework. In addition, other specification tests, with the aim of aiding the model building procedure, are considered. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided. Applying the model to the stock and bond futures data, we discover that the correlation pattern between them has dramatically changed around the turn of the century. The model is also applied to a selection of world stock indices, and we find evidence for an increasing degree of integration in the capital markets.

A psicologia da construção da vida : incursões no conceito da adaptabilidade para o estudo da influência parental na construção de carreira em adolescentes

Tese de doutoramento, Psicologia (Psicologia do Desenvolvimento e Aconselhamento de Carreira), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Psicologia, 2016

Location choices of multinational firms in Europe: the role of EU cohesion policy

Using data on 5509 foreign subsidiaries established in 50 regions of 8 EU countries over the period 1991–1999, we estimate a mixed logit model of the location choice of multinational firms in Europe. In particular, we focus on the role of EU Cohesion Policy in attracting foreign investors from both within and outside Europe. We find that, after controlling for the role of agglomeration economies as well as a number of other regional and country characteristics and allowing for a very flexible correlation pattern among choices, Structural and Cohesion funds allocated by the EU to laggard regions have indeed contributed to attracting multinationals. These policies as well as other determinants play a different role in the case of European investors as opposed to non-European ones.

CBF : A packet filtering method for DDoS attack defense in cloud environment

Distributed Denial-of-Service attack (DDoS) is a major threat for cloud environment. Traditional defending approaches cannot be easily applied in cloud security due to their relatively low efficiency, large storage, to name a few. In view of this challenge, a Confidence-Based Filtering method, named CBF, is investigated for cloud computing environment, in this paper. Concretely speaking, the method is deployed by two periods, i.e., non-attack period and attack period. More specially, legitimate packets are collected at non-attack period, for extracting attribute pairs to generate a nominal profile. With the nominal profile, the CBF method is promoted by calculating the score of a particular packet at attack period, to determine whether to discard it or not. At last, extensive simulations are conducted to evaluate the feasibility of the CBF method. The result shows that CBF has a high scoring speed, a small storage requirement and an acceptable filtering accuracy, making it suitable for real-time filtering in cloud environment.

Spatio-temporal variability of sugarcane yield efficiency in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil

The objective of this work was to assess the spatial and temporal variability of sugarcane yield efficiency and yield gap in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, throughout 16 growing seasons, considering climate and soil as main effects, and socioeconomic factors as complementary. An empirical model was used to assess potential and attainable yields, using climate data series from 37 weather stations. Soil effects were analyzed using the concept of production environments associated with a soil aptitude map for sugarcane. Crop yield efficiency increased from 0.42 to 0.58 in the analyzed period (1990/1991 to 2005/2006 crop seasons), and yield gap consequently decreased from 58 to 42%. Climatic factors explained 43% of the variability of sugarcane yield efficiency, in the following order of importance: solar radiation, water deficit, maximum air temperature, precipitation, and minimum air temperature. Soil explained 15% of the variability, considering the average of all seasons. There was a change in the correlation pattern of climate and soil with yield efficiency after the 2001/2002 season, probably due to the crop expansion to the west of the state during the subsequent period. Socioeconomic, biotic and crop management factors together explain 42% of sugarcane yield efficiency in the state of Sao Paulo.

Using gene-network landscape to dissect genotype effects of TCF7L2 genetic variant on diabetes and cardiovascular risk

Vaquero AR, Ferreira NE, Omae SV, Rodrigues MV, Teixeira SK, Krieger JE, Pereira AC. Using gene-network landscape to dissect genotype effects of TCF7L2 genetic variant on diabetes and cardiovascular risk. Physiol Genomics 44: 903-914, 2012. First published August 7, 2012; doi:10.1152/physiolgenomics.00030.2012.-The single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) within the TCF7L2 gene, rs7903146, is, to date, the most significant genetic marker associated with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk. Nonetheless, its functional role in disease pathology is poorly understood. The aim of the present study was to investigate, in vascular smooth muscle cells from 92 patients undergoing aortocoronary bypass surgery, the contribution of this SNP in T2DM using expression levels and expression correlation comparison approaches, which were visually represented as gene interaction networks. Initially, the expression levels of 41 genes (seven TCF7L2 splice forms and 40 other T2DM relevant genes) were compared between rs7903146 wild-type (CC) and T2DM-risk (CT + TT) genotype groups. Next, we compared the expression correlation patterns of these 41 genes between groups to observe if the relationships between genes were different. Five TCF7L2 splice forms and nine genes showed significant expression differences between groups. RXR alpha gene was pinpointed as showing the most different expression correlation pattern with other genes. Therefore, T2DM risk alleles appear to be influencing TCF7L2 splice form's expression in vascular smooth muscle cells, and RXR alpha gene is pointed out as a treatment target candidate for risk reduction in individuals with high risk of developing T2DM, especially individuals harboring TCF7L2 risk genotypes.

Spatio-temporal variability of sugarcane yield efficiency in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

The objective of this work was to assess the spatial and temporal variability of sugarcane yield efficiency and yield gap in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, throughout 16 growing seasons, considering climate and soil as main effects, and socioeconomic factors as complementary. An empirical model was used to assess potential and attainable yields, using climate data series from 37 weather stations. Soil effects were analyzed using the concept of production environments associated with a soil aptitude map for sugarcane. Crop yield efficiency increased from 0.42 to 0.58 in the analyzed period (1990/1991 to 2005/2006 crop seasons), and yield gap consequently decreased from 58 to 42%. Climatic factors explained 43% of the variability of sugarcane yield efficiency, in the following order of importance: solar radiation, water deficit, maximum air temperature, precipitation, and minimum air temperature. Soil explained 15% of the variability, considering the average of all seasons. There was a change in the correlation pattern of climate and soil with yield efficiency after the 2001/2002 season, probably due to the crop expansion to the west of the state during the subsequent period. Socioeconomic, biotic and crop management factors together explain 42% of sugarcane yield efficiency in the state of São Paulo.

Genuine cross-correlations: Which surrogate based measure reproduces analytical results best?

The analysis of short segments of noise-contaminated, multivariate real world data constitutes a challenge. In this paper we compare several techniques of analysis, which are supposed to correctly extract the amount of genuine cross-correlations from a multivariate data set. In order to test for the quality of their performance we derive time series from a linear test model, which allows the analytical derivation of genuine correlations. We compare the numerical estimates of the four measures with the analytical results for different correlation pattern. In the bivariate case all but one measure performs similarly well. However, in the multivariate case measures based on the eigenvalues of the equal-time cross-correlation matrix do not extract exclusively information about the amount of genuine correlations, but they rather reflect the spatial organization of the correlation pattern. This may lead to failures when interpreting the numerical results as illustrated by an application to three electroencephalographic recordings of three patients suffering from pharmacoresistent epilepsy.

Different forms of life satisfaction and their relation to affectivity

Aims: The present study is aimed at studying the research question whether high satisfaction levels achieved through either (1) the fact that one's quality of life is truly satisfactory (i.e., stabilized life satisfaction) or through (2) adapting a more favorable perception of one's quality of life by lowering standards (i.e., resigned life satisfaction) are associated with different levels of positive affect (PA) and negative affect (NA) when compared to each other but also when compared to dissatisfied individuals. Case Report: A sample of 104 adults completed measures assessing stabilized and resigned life satisfaction, PA and NA, and global life satisfaction (i.e., no explicit consideration of differences in standards) in an online survey. Participants were not paid for participation but received feedback on results of the study if interest was expressed. Results: Stabilized life satisfaction and global life satisfaction showed highly similar correlation pattern with PA and NA. Resigned satisfaction was negatively associated with PA and positively correlated with NA. Stabilized and resigned satisfied individuals showed more favorable levels of PA and NA compared with dissatisfied individuals, but did not differ from each other with regard to their levels of PA and NA. Conclusion: Although showing a less favorable correlation pattern with PA and NA, adopting a resigned form of satisfaction (i.e., taking a more favorable view of one's quality of life by lowering individual standards) seemed to prevent individuals from experiencing the same high levels of NA like dissatisfied ones. This has not been studied in detail so far, and therefore, the present paper opens a further area of research within the context of life satisfaction.

Correlation between BRAF mutation and the clinicopathological parameters in papillary thyroid carcinoma with particular reference to follicular variant

Mutation of the BRAF gene is common in thyroid cancer. Follicular variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma is a variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma that has created continuous diagnostic controversies among pathologists. The aims of this study are to (1) investigate whether follicular variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma has a different pattern of BRAF mutation than conventional papillary thyroid carcinoma in a large cohort of patients with typical features of follicular variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma and (2) to study the relationship of clinicopathological features of papillary thyroid carcinomas with BRAF mutation. Tissue blocks from 76 patients with diagnostic features of papillary thyroid carcinomas (40 with conventional type and 36 with follicular variant) were included in the study. From these, DNA was extracted and BRAF V600E mutations were detected by polymerase chain reaction followed by restriction enzyme digestion and sequencing of exon 15. Analysis of the data indicated that BRAF V600E mutation is significantly more common in conventional papillary thyroid carcinoma (58% versus 31%, P = .022). Furthermore, the mutation was often noted in female patients (P = .017), in high-stage cancers (P = .034), and in tumors with mild lymphocytic thyroiditis (P = .006). We concluded that follicular variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma differs from conventional papillary thyroid carcinoma in the rate of BRAF mutation. The results of this study add further information indicating that mutations in BRAF play a role in thyroid cancer development and progression.

The pattern of coupling dynamics between postural motion, isotonic hand movements and physiological tremor

This study was designed to examine differences in the coupling dynamics between upper limb motion, physiological tremor and whole body postural sway in young healthy adults. Acceleration of the hand and fingers, forearm EMG activity and postural sway data were recorded. Estimation of the degree of bilateral and limb motion-postural sway coupling was determined by cross correlation, coherence and Cross-ApEn analyses. The results of the analysis revealed that, under postural tremor conditions, there was no significant coupling between limbs, muscles or sway across all metrics of coupling. In contrast, performing a rapid alternating flexion/extension movement about the wrist joint (with one or both limbs) resulted in stronger coupling between limb motion and postural sway. These results support the view that, for physiological tremor responses, the control of postural sway is maintained independent to tremor in the upper limb. However, increasing the level of movement about a distal segment of one arm (or both) leads to increased coupling throughout the body. The basis for this increased coupling would appear to be related to the enhanced neural drive to task-specific muscles within the upper limb.