Modelling data and voice traffic over IP networks using continuous-time Markov models

Common approaches to IP-traffic modelling have featured the use of stochastic models, based on the Markov property, which can be classified into black box and white box models based on the approach used for modelling traffic. White box models, are simple to understand, transparent and have a physical meaning attributed to each of the associated parameters. To exploit this key advantage, this thesis explores the use of simple classic continuous-time Markov models based on a white box approach, to model, not only the network traffic statistics but also the source behaviour with respect to the network and application. The thesis is divided into two parts: The first part focuses on the use of simple Markov and Semi-Markov traffic models, starting from the simplest two-state model moving upwards to n-state models with Poisson and non-Poisson statistics. The thesis then introduces the convenient to use, mathematically derived, Gaussian Markov models which are used to model the measured network IP traffic statistics. As one of the most significant contributions, the thesis establishes the significance of the second-order density statistics as it reveals that, in contrast to first-order density, they carry much more unique information on traffic sources and behaviour. The thesis then exploits the use of Gaussian Markov models to model these unique features and finally shows how the use of simple classic Markov models coupled with use of second-order density statistics provides an excellent tool for capturing maximum traffic detail, which in itself is the essence of good traffic modelling. The second part of the thesis, studies the ON-OFF characteristics of VoIP traffic with reference to accurate measurements of the ON and OFF periods, made from a large multi-lingual database of over 100 hours worth of VoIP call recordings. The impact of the language, prosodic structure and speech rate of the speaker on the statistics of the ON-OFF periods is analysed and relevant conclusions are presented. Finally, an ON-OFF VoIP source model with log-normal transitions is contributed as an ideal candidate to model VoIP traffic and the results of this model are compared with those of previously published work.

Integrals for continuous-time Markov chains

This paper presents a method of evaluating the expected value of a path integral for a general Markov chain on a countable state space. We illustrate the method with reference to several models, including birth-death processes and the birth, death and catastrophe process. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Forecasting volatility using a continuous time model

This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of a continuous stochastic volatility model with two factors of volatility (SV2F) and compares it to those of GARCH and ARFIMA models. The empirical results show that the volatility forecasting ability of the SV2F model is better than that of the GARCH and ARFIMA models, especially when volatility seems to change pattern. We use ex-post volatility as a proxy of the realized volatility obtained from intraday data and the forecasts from the SV2F are calculated using the reprojection technique proposed by Gallant and Tauchen (1998).

Continuous-time formulation of reaction-diffusion processes on heterogeneous metapopulations

We present the derivation of the continuous-time equations governing the limit dynamics of discrete-time reaction-diffusion processes defined on heterogeneous metapopulations. We show that, when a rigorous time limit is performed, the lack of an epidemic threshold in the spread of infections is not limited to metapopulations with a scale-free architecture, as it has been predicted from dynamical equations in which reaction and diffusion occur sequentially in time

Discrete time representation of continuous time ARMA processes

This paper derives exact discrete time representations for data generated by a continuous time autoregressive moving average (ARMA) system with mixed stock and flow data. The representations for systems comprised entirely of stocks or of flows are also given. In each case the discrete time representations are shown to be of ARMA form, the orders depending on those of the continuous time system. Three examples and applications are also provided, two of which concern the stationary ARMA(2, 1) model with stock variables (with applications to sunspot data and a short-term interest rate) and one concerning the nonstationary ARMA(2, 1) model with a flow variable (with an application to U.S. nondurable consumers’ expenditure). In all three examples the presence of an MA(1) component in the continuous time system has a dramatic impact on eradicating unaccounted-for serial correlation that is present in the discrete time version of the ARMA(2, 0) specification, even though the form of the discrete time model is ARMA(2, 1) for both models.

On variational data assimilation in continuous time

Variational data assimilation in continuous time is revisited. The central techniques applied in this paper are in part adopted from the theory of optimal nonlinear control. Alternatively, the investigated approach can be considered as a continuous time generalization of what is known as weakly constrained four-dimensional variational assimilation (4D-Var) in the geosciences. The technique allows to assimilate trajectories in the case of partial observations and in the presence of model error. Several mathematical aspects of the approach are studied. Computationally, it amounts to solving a two-point boundary value problem. For imperfect models, the trade-off between small dynamical error (i.e. the trajectory obeys the model dynamics) and small observational error (i.e. the trajectory closely follows the observations) is investigated. This trade-off turns out to be trivial if the model is perfect. However, even in this situation, allowing for minute deviations from the perfect model is shown to have positive effects, namely to regularize the problem. The presented formalism is dynamical in character. No statistical assumptions on dynamical or observational noise are imposed.

A continuous-time MILP model for short-term scheduling of make-and-pack production processes

In process industries, make-and-pack production is used to produce food and beverages, chemicals, and metal products, among others. This type of production process allows the fabrication of a wide range of products in relatively small amounts using the same equipment. In this article, we consider a real-world production process (cf. Honkomp et al. 2000. The curse of reality – why process scheduling optimization problems are diffcult in practice. Computers & Chemical Engineering, 24, 323–328.) comprising sequence-dependent changeover times, multipurpose storage units with limited capacities, quarantine times, batch splitting, partial equipment connectivity, and transfer times. The planning problem consists of computing a production schedule such that a given demand of packed products is fulfilled, all technological constraints are satisfied, and the production makespan is minimised. None of the models in the literature covers all of the technological constraints that occur in such make-and-pack production processes. To close this gap, we develop an efficient mixed-integer linear programming model that is based on a continuous time domain and general-precedence variables. We propose novel types of symmetry-breaking constraints and a preprocessing procedure to improve the model performance. In an experimental analysis, we show that small- and moderate-sized instances can be solved to optimality within short CPU times.

Longitudinal categorical data analysis: A continuous -time Markov chain approach

In this dissertation, we propose a continuous-time Markov chain model to examine the longitudinal data that have three categories in the outcome variable. The advantage of this model is that it permits a different number of measurements for each subject and the duration between two consecutive time points of measurements can be irregular. Using the maximum likelihood principle, we can estimate the transition probability between two time points. By using the information provided by the independent variables, this model can also estimate the transition probability for each subject. The Monte Carlo simulation method will be used to investigate the goodness of model fitting compared with that obtained from other models. A public health example will be used to demonstrate the application of this method. ^

Subgeometric rates of convergence for a class of continuous-time Markov process

Let (Phi(t))(t is an element of R+) be a Harris ergodic continuous-time Markov process on a general state space, with invariant probability measure pi. We investigate the rates of convergence of the transition function P-t(x, (.)) to pi; specifically, we find conditions under which r(t) vertical bar vertical bar P-t (x, (.)) - pi vertical bar vertical bar -> 0 as t -> infinity, for suitable subgeometric rate functions r(t), where vertical bar vertical bar - vertical bar vertical bar denotes the usual total variation norm for a signed measure. We derive sufficient conditions for the convergence to hold, in terms of the existence of suitable points on which the first hitting time moments are bounded. In particular, for stochastically ordered Markov processes, explicit bounds on subgeometric rates of convergence are obtained. These results are illustrated in several examples.

Uniqueness criteria for continuous-time Markov chains with general transition structures

We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of bounded or summable solutions to systems of linear equations associated with Markov chains. This substantially extends a famous result of G. E. H. Reuter, which provides a convenient means of checking various uniqueness criteria for birth-death processes. Our result allows chains with much more general transition structures to be accommodated. One application is to give a new proof of an important result of M. F. Chen concerning upwardly skip-free processes. We then use our generalization of Reuter's lemma to prove new results for downwardly skip-free chains, such as the Markov branching process and several of its many generalizations. This permits us to establish uniqueness criteria for several models, including the general birth, death, and catastrophe process, extended branching processes, and asymptotic birth-death processes, the latter being neither upwardly skip-free nor downwardly skip-free.

A novel continuous time representation for the scheduling of pipeline systems with pumping yield rate constraints

Pipeline systems play a key role in the petroleum business. These operational systems provide connection between ports and/or oil fields and refineries (upstream), as well as between these and consumer markets (downstream). The purpose of this work is to propose a novel MINLP formulation based on a continuous time representation for the scheduling of multiproduct pipeline systems that must supply multiple consumer markets. Moreover, it also considers that the pipeline operates intermittently and that the pumping costs depend on the booster stations yield rates, which in turn may generate different flow rates. The proposed continuous time representation is compared with a previously developed discrete time representation [Rejowski, R., Jr., & Pinto, J. M. (2004). Efficient MILP formulations and valid cuts for multiproduct pipeline scheduling. Computers and Chemical Engineering, 28, 1511] in terms of solution quality and computational performance. The influence of the number of time intervals that represents the transfer operation is studied and several configurations for the booster stations are tested. Finally, the proposed formulation is applied to a larger case, in which several booster configurations with different numbers of stages are tested. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Separation Principle for the Continuous-Time LQ-Problem With Markovian Jump Parameters

In this paper, we devise a separation principle for the finite horizon quadratic optimal control problem of continuous-time Markovian jump linear systems driven by a Wiener process and with partial observations. We assume that the output variable and the jump parameters are available to the controller. It is desired to design a dynamic Markovian jump controller such that the closed loop system minimizes the quadratic functional cost of the system over a finite horizon period of time. As in the case with no jumps, we show that an optimal controller can be obtained from two coupled Riccati differential equations, one associated to the optimal control problem when the state variable is available, and the other one associated to the optimal filtering problem. This is a separation principle for the finite horizon quadratic optimal control problem for continuous-time Markovian jump linear systems. For the case in which the matrices are all time-invariant we analyze the asymptotic behavior of the solution of the derived interconnected Riccati differential equations to the solution of the associated set of coupled algebraic Riccati equations as well as the mean square stabilizing property of this limiting solution. When there is only one mode of operation our results coincide with the traditional ones for the LQG control of continuous-time linear systems.

On the Filtering Problem for Continuous-Time Markov Jump Linear Systems with no Observation of the Markov Chain

We consider in this paper the optimal stationary dynamic linear filtering problem for continuous-time linear systems subject to Markovian jumps in the parameters (LSMJP) and additive noise (Wiener process). It is assumed that only an output of the system is available and therefore the values of the jump parameter are not accessible. It is a well known fact that in this setting the optimal nonlinear filter is infinite dimensional, which makes the linear filtering a natural numerically, treatable choice. The goal is to design a dynamic linear filter such that the closed loop system is mean square stable and minimizes the stationary expected value of the mean square estimation error. It is shown that an explicit analytical solution to this optimal filtering problem is obtained from the stationary solution associated to a certain Riccati equation. It is also shown that the problem can be formulated using a linear matrix inequalities (LMI) approach, which can be extended to consider convex polytopic uncertainties on the parameters of the possible modes of operation of the system and on the transition rate matrix of the Markov process. As far as the authors are aware of this is the first time that this stationary filtering problem (exact and robust versions) for LSMJP with no knowledge of the Markov jump parameters is considered in the literature. Finally, we illustrate the results with an example.

Experimental control of single-mode laser chaos by using continuous, time-delayed feedback

Control of chaos in the single-mode optically pumped far-infrared (NH3)-N-15 laser is experimentally demonstrated using continuous time-delay control. Both the Lorenz spiral chaos and the detuned period-doubling chaos exhibited by the laser have been controlled. While the laser is in the Lorenz spiral chaos regime the chaos has been controlled both such that the laser output is cw, with corrections of only a fraction of a percent necessary to keep it there, and to period one. The laser has also been controlled while in the period-doubling chaos regime, to both the period-one and -two states.