Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Government Bond Returns

Peer reviewed

Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Government Bond Returns

Peer reviewed

Tackling risky alcohol consumption in sport: a cluster randomised controlled trial of an alcohol management intervention with community football clubs

BACKGROUND: An increased prevalence of risky alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm has been reported for members of sporting groups and at sporting venues compared with non-sporting populations. While sports clubs and venues represent opportune settings to implement strategies to reduce such risks, no controlled trials have been reported. The purpose of the study was to examine the effectiveness of an alcohol management intervention in reducing risky alcohol consumption and the risk of alcohol-related harm among community football club members.

METHOD: A cluster randomised controlled trial of an alcohol management intervention was undertaken with non-elite, community football clubs and their members in New South Wales, Australia. Risky alcohol consumption (5+ drinks) at the club and risk of alcohol-related harm using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) were measured at baseline and postintervention.

RESULTS: Eighty-eight clubs participated in the trial (n=43, INTERVENTION; n=45, CONTROL) and separate cross-sectional samples of club members completed the baseline (N=1411) and postintervention (N=1143) surveys. Postintervention, a significantly lower proportion of intervention club members reported: risky alcohol consumption at the club ( INTERVENTION: 19%; CONTROL: 24%; OR: 0.63 (95% CI 0.40 to 1.00); p=0.05); risk of alcohol-related harm ( INTERVENTION: 38%; CONTROL: 45%; OR: 0.58 (95% CI 0.38 to 0.87); p<0.01); alcohol consumption risk ( INTERVENTION: 47%; CONTROL: 55%; OR: 0.60 (95% CI 0.41 to 0.87); p<0.01) and possible alcohol dependence ( INTERVENTION: 1%; CONTROL: 4%; OR: 0.20 (95% CI 0.06 to 0.65); p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS: With large numbers of people worldwide playing, watching and sports officiating, enhancing club-based alcohol management interventions could make a substantial contribution to reducing the burden of alcohol misuse in communities.

Burial depth distribution of fennel pondweed tubers (Potamogeton pectinatus) in relation to foraging by Bewick's swans

Deep burial in the sediment of tubers of fennel pondweed (Potamogeton pectinatus) has been explained in terms of avoidance by escape against consumption by Bewick's swans (Cygnus columbianus bewickii) in autumn. We therefore expected changes in foraging pressure to ultimately result in a change in the tuber distribution across sediment depth. A trade-off underlies this idea: deep tubers are less accessible to swans but must be larger to meet the higher energy demands of sprouting in spring. To test this prediction, we compared tuber burial depth over a gradient of foraging pressure both across space and across time. Tuber samples were obtained after aboveground plant senescence but before arrival of Bewick's swans. First, we compared the current tuber bank depth profile in a shallow lake with high foraging pressure, the Lauwersmeer, with that in two wetlands with moderate and low foraging pressure. Second, we compared the current tuber burial in the Lauwersmeer with that in the early 1980s when exploitation by swans had just started there. In accordance with our hypothesis, we found significantly deeper burial of tubers under high consumption risk compared to low consumption risk, both when comparing sites and comparing time periods. Since tubers in effect only survive to the next spring, the observed differences in burial depth among sites and over time cannot be a direct result of tuber losses due to consumption by swans. Rather, these observations suggest adaptive responses in tuber burial related to foraging pressure from Bewick's swans in the recent past. We thus propose that fennel pondweed exhibits flexible avoidance by escape, of a kind rarely described for plants, where both phenotypic plasticity and genotype sorting may contribute to the observed differences in tuber burial.

How religiosity influences consumption: The impact of consumer religiosity on perceptions of psychological and social risk

For some people, religion is an important influence in decision-making. This thesis investigates the relationship between the religiosity of consumers and their perceived risk in adopting new products. Two studies gathered data from religious consumers living in Saudi Arabia, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the USA. The results confirm the significant impact of religion on perceived risk, and suggest why this may lead to delays in adoption. Theoretically, these studies provide a better explanation of how religion influences consumption decisions, and offer brand managers options to improve the adoption of new products in religious markets.

Microcystin accumulation in freshwater bivalves from Lake Taihu, China, and the potential risk to human consumption

The potential risk through ingestion of microcystins (MC) in contaminated mollusks has not been well studied. The present paper studied seasonal changes of MC content (determined by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry) in various organs of three species of bivalves (Cristaria plicata, Hyriopsis cumingii, and Lamprotula leai) in Lake Taihu, China, where toxic cyanobacterial blooms occurred. Coinciding with peaks of seston MC (maximum, 5.7 mu g/L) and MC in cyanobacterial blooms (maximum, 0.534 mg/g), most organs showed sharp MC peaks during the summer, indicating both fast uptake and fast depuration by bivalves. Because hepatopancreas and intestine had considerably higher MC content than other organs, they are the most dangerous for human consumption. Both the present and previous studies show that the hepatopancreatic MC and total tissue MC often are correlated in various aquatic invertebrates. During the peak of the cyanobacterial blooms, C. plicata had higher hepatopancreatic MC content than the other bivalves, whereas H. cumingii had higher intestinal MC content than the other bivalves. Estimated daily intakes for humans from the consumption of whole tissues of the three bivalves were 0.48 to 0.94 mu g MC-LR equivalent/kg body weight (12- to 23.5-fold the tolerable daily intake value proposed by the World Health Organization), which indicates a high risk for humans consuming these bivalves.

Seasonal dynamics of the hepatotoxic microcystins in various organs of four freshwater bivalves from the large eutrophic Lake Taihu of subtropical China and the risk to human consumption

So far, little is known on the distribution of hepatotoxic microcystin (MC) in various organs of bivalves, and there is no study on MC accumulation in bivalves from Chinese waters. Distribution pattern and seasonal dynamics of MC-LR, -YR and -RR in various organs (hepatopancreas, intestine, visceral mass, gill, foot, and rest) of four edible freshwater mussels (Anodonta woodiana, Hyriopsis cumingii, Cristaria plicata, and Lamprotula leai) were studied monthly during Oct. 2003-Sep. 2004 in Lake Taihu with toxic cyanobacterial blooms in the summer. Qualitative and quantitative determinations of MCs in the organs were done by LC-MS and HPLC. The major toxins were present in the hepatopancreas (45.5-55.4%), followed by visceral mass with substantial amount of gonad (27.6-35.5%), whereas gill and foot were the least (1.8-5.1%). The maximum MC contents in the hepatopancreas, intestine, visceral mass, gill, foot, and rest were 38.48, 20.65, 1.70, 0.64, 0.58, and 0.61 mu g/g DW, respectively. There were rather good positive correlation in MC contents between intestines and hepatopancreas of the four bivalves (r = 0.75-0.97, p < 0.05). There appeared to be positive correlations between the maximum MC content in the hepatopancreas and the delta(13)C (r = 0.919) or delta(15)N (r = 0.878) of the foot, indicating that the different MC content in the hepatopancreas might be due to different food ingestion. A glutathione (GSH) conjugate of MC-LR was also detected in the foot sample of C. plicata. Among the foot samples analyzed, 54% were above the provisional WHO tolerable daily intake (TDI) level, and the mean daily intakes from the four bivalves were 8-23.5 times the TDI value when the bivalves are eaten as a whole, suggesting the high risk of consuming bivalves in Lake Taihu. (C) 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Excessive alcohol consumption in young men: is there an association with their earlier family situation? A baseline-analysis of the C-SURF-study (Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors).

AIMS: To determine whether parental factors earlier in life (parenting, single parent family, parental substance use problem) are associated with patterns of alcohol consumption among young men in Switzerland. METHODS: This analysis of a population based sample from the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF) included 5,990 young men (mean age 19.51 years), all attending a mandatory recruitment process for the army. These conscripts reported on parental monitoring and rule-setting, parental behaviour and family structure. The alcohol use pattern was assessed through abstention, risky single occasion drinking (RSOD), volume drinking and dependence. Furthermore, the impact of age, family socio-economic status, educational level of the parents, language region and civil status was analysed. RESULTS: A parental substance use problem was positively associated with volume drinking and alcohol dependence in young Swiss men. Active parenting corresponded negatively with RSOD, volume drinking and alcohol dependence. Single parent family was not associated with a different alcohol consumption pattern compared to standard family. CONCLUSION: Parental influences earlier in life such as active parenting (monitoring, rule-setting and knowing the whereabouts) and perceived parental substance use problem are associated with alcohol drinking behaviour in young male adults. Therefore, health professionals should stress the importance of active parenting and parental substance use prevention in alcohol prevention strategies.

The relationship between fructose consumption and risk of obesity in two Aboriginal populations

Résumé La prédominance de l'obésité qui touche les enfants et les adultes a augmenté dans le monde entier ces dernières décennies. Les différentes études épidémiologiques ont prouvé que l'obésité est devenue une préoccupation profonde de santé aux États-Unis et au Canada. Il a été montré que l'obésité a beaucoup d’effets sur la santé ainsi il serait important de trouver différentes causes pour le gain de poids. Il est clair que l'obésité soit la condition de multiples facteurs et implique des éléments génétiques et environnementaux. Nous nous concentrons sur les facteurs diététiques et particulièrement le fructose où sa consommation a parallèlement augmenté avec l'augmentation du taux d'obésité. La forme principale du fructose est le sirop de maïs à haute teneur en fructose (HFCS) qui est employé en tant qu'édulcorant primordial dans la plupart des boissons et nourritures en Amérique du Nord. Il a été suggéré que la prise du fructose serait probablement un facteur qui contribue à l’augmentation de la prédominance de l'obésité. L'objectif de cette étude était d'évaluer s'il y a un rapport entre la consommation du fructose et le risque d'obésité. Nous avons travaillé sur deux bases de données des nations Cree et Inuit. Nous avons eu un groupe de 522 adultes Cree, (263 femmes et 259 hommes) dans deux groupes d'âge : les personnes entre 20 et 40 ans, et les personnes de 40 à 60 ans. Nous les avons classés par catégorie en quatre groupes d'indice de masse corporelle (IMC). L'outil de collecte de données était un rappel de 24 heures. En revanche, pour la base de données d'Inuit nous avons eu 550 adultes (301 femmes et 249 hommes) dans deux groupes d'âge semblables à ceux du Cree et avec 3 catégories d’indice de masse corporelle. Les données dans la base d'Inuit ont été recueillies au moyen de deux rappels de 24 heures. Nous avons extrait la quantité de fructose par 100 grammes de nourriture consommés par ces deux populations et nous avons créé des données de composition en nourriture pour les deux. Nous avons pu également déterminer les sources principales du fructose pour ces populations. Aucun rapport entre la consommation du fructose et l’augmentation de l’indice de masse corporelle parmi les adultes de Cree et d'Inuit n’a été détecté. Nous avons considéré l’apport énergétique comme facteur confondant potentiel et après ajustement, nous avons constaté que l'indice de masse corporelle a été associé à l’apport énergétique total et non pas à la consommation du fructose. Puisque dans les études qui ont trouvé une association entre la consommation de fructose et l’obésité, le niveau de la consommation de fructose était supérieure à 50 grammes par jour et comme dans cette étude ce niveau était inférieur à cette limite (entre 20.6 et 45.4 g/jour), nous proposons que des effets negatifs du fructose sur la masse corporelle pourraient être testés dans des populations à plus haute consommation. Les essais cliniques randomisés et éventuelles études cohortes avec différents niveaux de consommation de fructose suivis à long terme pourraient aussi être utiles. Mots clés : fructose, sirop de maïs à haute teneur en fructose (HFCS), obésité et poids excessif

Consumption of black tea and coffee and the risk of lung cancer

Objectif: Étudier l’association entre la consommation de café, la consommation de thé noir et le risque de cancer du poumon. Méthodologie: Cette recherche utilise les données obtenues lors d’une étude cas-témoin effectuée à Montréal avec des résidents canadiens âgés entre 35 et 75 ans recrutés entre 1996 et 2001. Les cas étaient des individus atteints du cancer et diagnostiqués entre 1996 et 1997 dans l’un des 18 hôpitaux de la région du Grand-Montréal. Les contrôles on été sélectionnés à partir de la liste électorale et appariés selon la fréquence de distribution des cas par groupe d’âge de 5 ans, par sexe et par district électoral. Au total, 1130 cas et 1484 contrôles ont été inclus dans cette étude. Les rapports de cote (RC) et les intervalles de confiance de 95% (CI) des associations entre la consommation de thé noir, de café et le cancer du poumon ont été estimés à l’aide de la régression logistique non conditionnelle. Quatre aspects de la consommation ont été analysés dans des modèles multivariés distincts: la fréquence de consommation, la consommation journalière moyenne, la durée de consommation et la consommation cumulative. Les covariables potentielles considérées incluaient : l’âge, le sexe, l’historique de tabagisme, le statut du répondant, l’ethnicité, la consommation d’alcool, la consommation de fruit et de légume, l’apport énergétique journalier, l’exposition a des agents professionnelle et les variables socio-économiques . Des analyses secondaires par le sexe, le tabagisme et le type histologique de cancer on été effectuées. Résultats : Aucune association statistiquement significative n’a été observée entre la consommation de thé noir et le cancer du poumon. Nos résultats suggèrent qu’une consommation de ≥ 50 ans était associée avec une augmentation du risque d’adénocarcinome comparée à aucune consommation. Nous avons observé une association inverse statistiquement significative entre la consommation occasionnelle de café et le cancer du poumon (RC : 0.32, 95%CI : 0.17-0.59). La durée de consommation de café n’était pas associée avec le cancer du poumon. Conclusion : Nos résultats suggèrent que la consommation à long terme de thé noir pourrait augmenter le risque d’adénocarcinome. D’un autre côté, la consommation occasionnelle de café pourrait réduire le risque de cancer du poumon.

Effects of chronic and acute fruit and vegetable juice consumption on cardiovascular disease risk factors

Diets low in fruit and vegetables are reportedly responsible for 2.7 million deaths annually from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and certain cancers. A daily fruit and vegetable intake of five 80 g portions is recommended for chronic disease prevention. However, in the UK, average adult consumption is less than three portions. It is suggested that fruit juice should only count as one portion. However, fruit juices are a beneficial source of phytochemicals. The preliminary results of two randomized, controlled, crossover, dietary intervention studies investigating the effects of chronic and acute consumption of fruit and vegetable puree and juice based drinks (FVPJ) on bioavailability, antioxidant status, vascular reactivity, and risk factors for CVD are reported. In the first study, 39 volunteers consumed 200 ml FVPJ, or fruit-flavoured control, daily for six weeks. In the second study, 24 volunteers consumed 400 mL FVPJ, or sugar-matched control, on the morning of the study day. Blood and urine samples were collected throughout both studies and real-time measurements of vascular tone were performed using laser Doppler imaging with iontophoresis. Overall, the studies showed that the fruit and vegetable puree and juice based drink increased dietary phytochemicals. There was a trend towards increased vasodilation following both acute and chronic fruit juice consumption. Measurements of antioxidant status, oxidative stress and other cardiovascular disease risk factors are currently being determined.