Vector Error-Correction Models in a consumer packaged goods category forecasting decision support system

A framework for developing marketing category management decision support systems (DSS) based upon the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model is extended. Since the BVAR model is vulnerable to permanent and temporary shifts in purchasing patterns over time, a form that can correct for the shifts and still provide the other advantages of the BVAR is a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model (BVECM). We present the mechanics of extending the DSS to move from a BVAR model to the BVECM model for the category management problem. Several additional iterative steps are required in the DSS to allow the decision maker to arrive at the best forecast possible. The revised marketing DSS framework and model fitting procedures are described. Validation is conducted on a sample problem.

Drivers and Barriers of Collaboration in the Value Chain of Paperboard-Packed Consumer Goods

Value chain collaboration has been a prevailing topic for research, and there is a constantly growing interest in developing collaborative models for improved efficiency in logistics. One area of collaboration is demand information management, which enables improved visibility and decrease of inventories in the value chain. Outsourcing of non-core competencies has changed the nature of collaboration from intra-enterprise to cross-enterprise activity, and this together with increasing competition in the globalizing markets have created a need for methods and tools for collaborative work. The retailer part in the value chain of consumer packaged goods (CPG) has been studied relatively widely, proven models have been defined, and there exist several best practice collaboration cases. The information and communications technology has developed rapidly, offering efficient solutions and applications to exchange information between value chain partners. However, the majority of CPG industry still works with traditional business models and practices. This concerns especially companies operating in the upstream of the CPG value chain. Demand information for consumer packaged goods originates at retailers' counters, based on consumers' buying decisions. As this information does not get transferred along the value chain towards the upstream parties, each player needs to optimize their part, causing safety margins for inventories and speculation in purchasing decisions. The safety margins increase with each player, resulting in a phenomenon known as the bullwhip effect. The further the company is from the original demand information source, the more distorted the information is. This thesis concentrates on the upstream parts of the value chain of consumer packaged goods, and more precisely the packaging value chain. Packaging is becoming a part of the product with informative and interactive features, and therefore is not just a cost item needed to protect the product. The upstream part of the CPG value chain is distinctive, as the product changes after each involved party, and therefore the original demand information from the retailers cannot be utilized as such – even if it were transferred seamlessly. The objective of this thesis is to examine the main drivers for collaboration, and barriers causing the moderate adaptation level of collaborative models. Another objective is to define a collaborative demand information management model and test it in a pilot business situation in order to see if the barriers can be eliminated. The empirical part of this thesis contains three parts, all related to the research objective, but involving different target groups, viewpoints and research approaches. The study shows evidence that the main barriers for collaboration are very similar to the barriers in the lower part of the same value chain; lack of trust, lack of business case and lack of senior management commitment. Eliminating one of them – the lack of business case – is not enough to eliminate the two other barriers, as the operational model in this thesis shows. The uncertainty of the future, fear of losing an independent position in purchasing decision making and lack of commitment remain strong enough barriers to prevent the implementation of the proposed collaborative business model. The study proposes a new way of defining the value chain processes: it divides the contracting and planning process into two processes, one managing the commercial parts and the other managing the quantity and specification related issues. This model can reduce the resistance to collaboration, as the commercial part of the contracting process would remain the same as in the traditional model. The quantity/specification-related issues would be managed by the parties with the best capabilities and resources, as well as access to the original demand information. The parties in between would be involved in the planning process as well, as their impact for the next party upstream is significant. The study also highlights the future challenges for companies operating in the CPG value chain. The markets are becoming global, with toughening competition. Also, the technology development will most likely continue with a speed exceeding the adaptation capabilities of the industry. Value chains are also becoming increasingly dynamic, which means shorter and more agile business relationships, and at the same time the predictability of consumer demand is getting more difficult due to shorter product life cycles and trends. These changes will certainly have an effect on companies' operational models, but it is very difficult to estimate when and how the proven methods will gain wide enough adaptation to become standards.

Bill of Landing (copy) for packaged goods received at Port Hamilton

Bill of Landing (copy) for packaged goods received at Port Hamilton, Oct. 14, 1839.

16th census of the United States: 1940. Census of business: 1939. Retail trade. Commodity sales. Eating places, drinking places, cigar stores, cigar stands, liquor stores (packaged goods)

At head of title: U.S. Dept. of Commerce. Jesse H. Jones, Secretary. Bureau of the Census. J.C. Capt, Director ..

Checking the net contents of packaged goods.

"This fourth supplement was prepared to inform users of changes to NIST Handbook 133 that were adopted at the 79th Annual Meeting of the NCWM ..."

Checking the net contents of packaged goods /

"January 2002."

Interdiffusion at Sb/Ge interfaces induced in thin multilayer films by nanosecond laser irradiation

Thin films consisting of 3 or 4 Sb and Ge alternating layers are irradiated with single nanosecond laser pulses (12 ns, 193 nm). Real time reflectivity (RTR) measurements are performed during irradiation, and Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS) is used to obtain the concentration depth profiles before and after irradiation. Interdiffusion of the elements takes place at the layer interfaces within the liquid phase. The reflectivity transients allow to determine the laser energy thresholds both to induce and to saturate the process being both thresholds dependent on the multilayer configuration. It is found that the energy threshold to initiate the process is lower when Sb is at the surface while the saturation is reached at lower energy densities in those configurations with thinner layers.

Generic brands and product differentiation strategies

Generic or own brand products were initially only lesser expensive copies of the branded label alternative, but nowadays, pricing alone is not enough in order to survive in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) or Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG)markets. With this in mind manufacturers of generic brands have adapted to this rapidlygrowing niche by investing in design and marketing during the initial phase in order to be perceived as having a quality product comparable to that of the branded products. In addition, they have gone further ahead with a second phase and resorted to innovativeproduct differentiation strategies and even pure innovation in many cases. These strategies have granted generic brands constantly increasing market shares and a position of equals relative to national brands.Using previous analyses and case studies, this paper will provide conceptual and empirical evidence to explain the surprisingly fast growth and penetration of generic supermarket brands, which in their relatively short lifespan, have grown to rival the historical market leaders, the branded products. According to this analysis, the main conclusion is that the growth in generic brands can be explained not only by price competition, but also by the use of innovative product differentiation strategies.

Effect of price and in-store promotion on sales: a study of distinct regions in an emerging market

Increasing competition caused by globalization, high growth of some emerging markets and stagnation of developed economies motivate Consumer Packaged Goods (CPGs) manufacturers to drive their attention to emerging markets. These companies are expected to adapt their marketing activities to the particularities of these markets in order to succeed. In a country classified as emerging market, regions are not alike and some contrasts can be identified. In addition, divergences of marketing variables effect can also be observed in the different retail formats. The retail formats in emerging markets can be segregated in chain self-service and traditional full-service. Thus, understanding the effectiveness of marketing mix not only in country aggregated level data can be an important contribution. Inasmuch as companies aim to generate profits from emerging markets, price is an important marketing variable in the process of creating competitive advantage. Along with price, promotional variables such as in-store displays and price cut are often viewed as temporary incentives to increase short-term sales. Managers defend the usage of promotions as being the most reliable and fastest manner to increase sales and then short-term profits. However, some authors alert about sales promotions disadvantages; mainly in the long-term. This study investigates the effect of price and in-store promotions on sales volume in different regions within an emerging market. The database used is at SKU level for juice, being segregated in the Brazilian northeast and southeast regions and corresponding to the period from January 2011 to January 2013. The methodological approach is descriptive quantitative involving validation tests, application of multivariate and temporal series analysis method. The Vector-Autoregressive (VAR) model was used to perform the analysis. Results suggest similar price sensitivity in the northeast and southeast region and greater in-store promotion sensitivity in the northeast. Price reductions show negative results in the long-term (persistent sales in six months) and in-store promotion, positive results. In-store promotion shows no significant influence on sales in chain self-service stores while price demonstrates no relevant impact on sales in traditional full-service stores. Hence, this study contributes to the business environment for companies wishing to manage price and sales promotions for consumer brands in regions with different features within an emerging market. As a theoretical contribution, this study fills an academic gap providing a dedicated price and sales promotion study to contrast regions in an emerging market.

How screening criteria change during brand development

Purpose - Despite the increasing sophistication of new product development (NPD) research, the reliance on traditional approaches to studying NPD has left several areas in need of further research. The authors propose addressing some of these gaps, especially the limited focus on consumer brands, evaluation criteria used across different project-review points in the NPD process, and the distinction between "kills", "successes", and "failures". Moreover, they propose investigating how screening criteria change across project-review points, using real-time NPD projects. Design/methodology/approach - A postal survey generated 172 usable questionnaires from a sample of European, North American, Far Eastern and Australian consumer packaged-goods firms, providing data on 314 new product projects covering different development and post-commercialization review points. Findings - The results confirm that acceptance-rejection criteria vary through the NPD process. However, financial criteria dominate across all the project-review points. Initial screening is coarse, focusing predominantly on financial criteria. Fit with organizational, product, brand, promotional, and market requirements dominate in the detailed screen and pre-development evaluation points. At pre-launch, decision-makers focus on product, brand, and promotional criteria. Commercial fit, production synergies, and reliability of the firm's market intelligence are significant discriminators in the post-launch review. Moreover, the importance of marketing and channel issues makes the criteria for screening brands different from those of industrial markets. Originality/value - The study, although largely descriptive and involves a relatively small sample of consumer goods firms, offers new insights into NPD project evaluation behavior. Future, larger-scale investigations covering a broader spectrum of consumer product sectors are needed to validate our results and to explain the reasons behind managers' decisions. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

La travesía obsoleta: la indefensión del consumidor

La obsolescencia programada es el deseo de tener algo un poco más nuevo, un poco mejor, un poco más rápido de lo necesario. El texto estudia este fenómeno a la luz del Estatuto del Consumidor – Ley 1480 de 2011 para determinar si el consumidor colombiano está suficientemente protegido con él.

Reibung – ein unterschätztes Phänomen in der Verpackungslogistik

„Geiz ist geil!“ ist das Motto eines Handelshauses. Aber diese Philosophie erweist sich immer häufiger als ungeeignet, längerfristigen Erfolg zu sichern. Oftmals wird gerade aus diesem Grund wieder verstärkt auf Qualität geachtet, auf die Qualität von Produkten, auf die Qualität von Herstellungsprozessen, auf die Qualität von Logistikprozessen etc. Dieser Sinneswandel beeinflusst auch alle Verpackungsprozesse, da diese untrennbar mit der Sicherung der Produktqualität und der sicheren Abwicklung aller logistischen Prozesse verbunden ist. Neben der Forderung nach einem wirtschaftlichen Produktschutz als Kernaufgabe der Verpackung müssen jedoch auch zwingende Vorgaben – beispielsweise seitens des Gesetzgebers (z. B. im Lebensmittelbereich, in der Gefahrgutlogistik, im Straßenverkehrsrecht) – beachtet werden. Das führt u. a. dazu, dass alle verpackten Güter so geschützt sein sollten, dass sie den Belastungen im Transportprozess, aber auch den Belastungen aufgrund von Ladungs- und Ladeeinheitensicherungsmaßnahmen standhalten können. Da sich jedoch nicht alle Ladegüter oder Packstücke beliebig für form- oder kraftschlüssige Sicherungsmaßnahmen eignen, sollte bei der Auslegung von Verpackungsmaßnahmen insbesondere der hilfreichen Wirkung von Reibungskräften zur Reduzierung zusätzlicher Sicherungsmaßnahmen Aufmerksamkeit gewidmet werden.

Reibung – ein unterschätztes Phänomen in der Verpackungslogistik

„Geiz ist geil!“ ist das Motto eines Handelshauses. Aber diese Philosophie erweist sich immer häufiger als ungeeignet, längerfristigen Erfolg zu sichern. Oftmals wird gerade aus diesem Grund wieder verstärkt auf Qualität geachtet, auf die Qualität von Produkten, auf die Qualität von Herstellungsprozessen, auf die Qualität von Logistikprozessen etc. Dieser Sinneswandel beeinflusst auch alle Verpackungsprozesse, da diese untrennbar mit der Sicherung der Produktqualität und der sicheren Abwicklung aller logistischen Prozesse verbunden ist. Neben der Forderung nach einem wirtschaftlichen Produktschutz als Kernaufgabe der Verpackung müssen jedoch auch zwingende Vorgaben – beispielsweise seitens des Gesetzgebers (z. B. im Lebensmittelbereich, in der Gefahrgutlogistik, im Straßenverkehrsrecht) – beachtet werden. Das führt u. a. dazu, dass alle verpackten Güter so geschützt sein sollten, dass sie den Belastungen im Transportprozess, aber auch den Belastungen aufgrund von Ladungs- und Ladeeinheitensicherungsmaßnahmen standhalten können. Da sich jedoch nicht alle Ladegüter oder Packstücke beliebig für form- oder kraftschlüssige Sicherungsmaßnahmen eignen, sollte bei der Auslegung von Verpackungsmaßnahmen insbesondere der hilfreichen Wirkung von Reibungskräften zur Reduzierung zusätzlicher Sicherungsmaßnahmen Aufmerksamkeit gewidmet werden.

Optimizing last mile delivery using public transport with multiagent based control

The majority of research work carried out in the field of Operations-Research uses methods and algorithms to optimize the pick-up and delivery problem. Most studies aim to solve the vehicle routing problem, to accommodate optimum delivery orders, vehicles etc. This paper focuses on green logistics approach, where existing Public Transport infrastructure capability of a city is used for the delivery of small and medium sized packaged goods thus, helping improve the situation of urban congestion and greenhouse gas emissions reduction. It carried out a study to investigate the feasibility of the proposed multi-agent based simulation model, for efficiency of cost, time and energy consumption. Multimodal Dijkstra Shortest Path algorithm and Nested Monte Carlo Search have been employed for a two-phase algorithmic approach used for generation of time based cost matrix. The quality of the tour is dependent on the efficiency of the search algorithm implemented for plan generation and route planning. The results reveal a definite advantage of using Public Transportation over existing delivery approaches in terms of energy efficiency.