Managing Quality under Heterogeneous Consumer Demand and Product Quality, October 2005

Based on accepted advances in the marketing, economics, consumer behavior, and satisfaction literatures, we develop a micro-foundations model of a firm that needs to manage the quality of a product that is inherently heterogeneous in the presence of varying customer tastes or expectations for quality. Our model blends elements of the returns to quality, customer lifetime value, and service profit chain approaches to marketing. The model is then used to explain several empirical results pertaining to the marketing literature by explicitly articulating the trade-offs between customer satisfaction and costs (including opportunity costs) of quality. In this environment firms will find it optimal to allow some customers to go unsatisfied. We show that the relationship between the expected number of repeated purchases by an individual customer is endogenous to the choice of quality by the firm, indicating that the number of purchases cannot be chosen freely to estimate a customer’s lifetime value.

A Theory of Random Consumer Demand

This paper presents a new theory of random consumer demand. The primitive is a collection of probability distributions, rather than a binary preference. Various assumptions constrain these distributions, including analogues of common assumptions about preferences such as transitivity, monotonicity and convexity. Two results establish a complete representation of theoretically consistent random demand. The purpose of this theory of random consumer demand is application to empirical consumer demand problems. To this end, the theory has several desirable properties. It is intrinsically stochastic, so the econometrician can apply it directly without adding extrinsic randomness in the form of residuals. Random demand is parsimoniously represented by a single function on the consumption set. Finally, we have a practical method for statistical inference based on the theory, described in McCausland (2004), a companion paper.

Bayesian Analysis for a Theory of Random Consumer Demand: The Case of Indivisible Goods

McCausland (2004a) describes a new theory of random consumer demand. Theoretically consistent random demand can be represented by a \"regular\" \"L-utility\" function on the consumption set X. The present paper is about Bayesian inference for regular L-utility functions. We express prior and posterior uncertainty in terms of distributions over the indefinite-dimensional parameter set of a flexible functional form. We propose a class of proper priors on the parameter set. The priors are flexible, in the sense that they put positive probability in the neighborhood of any L-utility function that is regular on a large subset bar(X) of X; and regular, in the sense that they assign zero probability to the set of L-utility functions that are irregular on bar(X). We propose methods of Bayesian inference for an environment with indivisible goods, leaving the more difficult case of indefinitely divisible goods for another paper. We analyse individual choice data from a consumer experiment described in Harbaugh et al. (2001).

On the differentiability of the consumer demand function

For strictly quasi concave differentiable utility functions, demand is shown to be differentiable almost everywhere if marginal utilities are pointwise Lipschitzian. For concave utility functions, demand is differentiable almost everywhere in the case of differentiable additively separable utility or in the case of quasi-linear utility.

Less Risk, More Effort : Demand Risk Allocation in Incomplete Contracts

This article investigates the allocation of demand risk within an incomplete contract framework. We consider an incomplete contractual relationship between a public authority and a private provider (i.e. a public-private partnership), in which the latter invests in non-verifiable cost-reducing efforts and the former invests in non-verifiable adaptation efforts to respond to changing consumer demand over time. We show that the party that bears the demand risk has fewer hold-up opportunities and that this leads the other contracting party to make more effort. Thus, in our model, bearing less risk can lead to more effort, which we describe as a new example of âeuro~counter-incentivesâeuro?. We further show that when the benefits of adaptation are important, it is socially preferable to design a contract in which the demand risk remains with the private provider, whereas when the benefits of cost-reducing efforts are important, it is socially preferable to place the demand risk on the public authority. We then apply these results to explain two well-known case studies.

Drivers and Barriers of Collaboration in the Value Chain of Paperboard-Packed Consumer Goods

Value chain collaboration has been a prevailing topic for research, and there is a constantly growing interest in developing collaborative models for improved efficiency in logistics. One area of collaboration is demand information management, which enables improved visibility and decrease of inventories in the value chain. Outsourcing of non-core competencies has changed the nature of collaboration from intra-enterprise to cross-enterprise activity, and this together with increasing competition in the globalizing markets have created a need for methods and tools for collaborative work. The retailer part in the value chain of consumer packaged goods (CPG) has been studied relatively widely, proven models have been defined, and there exist several best practice collaboration cases. The information and communications technology has developed rapidly, offering efficient solutions and applications to exchange information between value chain partners. However, the majority of CPG industry still works with traditional business models and practices. This concerns especially companies operating in the upstream of the CPG value chain. Demand information for consumer packaged goods originates at retailers' counters, based on consumers' buying decisions. As this information does not get transferred along the value chain towards the upstream parties, each player needs to optimize their part, causing safety margins for inventories and speculation in purchasing decisions. The safety margins increase with each player, resulting in a phenomenon known as the bullwhip effect. The further the company is from the original demand information source, the more distorted the information is. This thesis concentrates on the upstream parts of the value chain of consumer packaged goods, and more precisely the packaging value chain. Packaging is becoming a part of the product with informative and interactive features, and therefore is not just a cost item needed to protect the product. The upstream part of the CPG value chain is distinctive, as the product changes after each involved party, and therefore the original demand information from the retailers cannot be utilized as such – even if it were transferred seamlessly. The objective of this thesis is to examine the main drivers for collaboration, and barriers causing the moderate adaptation level of collaborative models. Another objective is to define a collaborative demand information management model and test it in a pilot business situation in order to see if the barriers can be eliminated. The empirical part of this thesis contains three parts, all related to the research objective, but involving different target groups, viewpoints and research approaches. The study shows evidence that the main barriers for collaboration are very similar to the barriers in the lower part of the same value chain; lack of trust, lack of business case and lack of senior management commitment. Eliminating one of them – the lack of business case – is not enough to eliminate the two other barriers, as the operational model in this thesis shows. The uncertainty of the future, fear of losing an independent position in purchasing decision making and lack of commitment remain strong enough barriers to prevent the implementation of the proposed collaborative business model. The study proposes a new way of defining the value chain processes: it divides the contracting and planning process into two processes, one managing the commercial parts and the other managing the quantity and specification related issues. This model can reduce the resistance to collaboration, as the commercial part of the contracting process would remain the same as in the traditional model. The quantity/specification-related issues would be managed by the parties with the best capabilities and resources, as well as access to the original demand information. The parties in between would be involved in the planning process as well, as their impact for the next party upstream is significant. The study also highlights the future challenges for companies operating in the CPG value chain. The markets are becoming global, with toughening competition. Also, the technology development will most likely continue with a speed exceeding the adaptation capabilities of the industry. Value chains are also becoming increasingly dynamic, which means shorter and more agile business relationships, and at the same time the predictability of consumer demand is getting more difficult due to shorter product life cycles and trends. These changes will certainly have an effect on companies' operational models, but it is very difficult to estimate when and how the proven methods will gain wide enough adaptation to become standards.

Comparative advantage in demand: Experimental evidence of preferences for genetically modified food in the United States and European Union

The United States (US) exports more than US$6 billion in agricultural commodities to the European Union (EU) each year, but one issue carries the potential to diminish this trade: use of biotechnology in food production. The EU has adopted more stringent policies towards biotechnology than the US. Understanding differences in European and American policies towards genetically modified (GM) foods requires a greater understanding of consumers' attitudes and preferences. This paper reports results from the first large-scale, cross-Atlantic study to analyse consumer demand for genetically modified food in a non-hypothetical market environment. We strongly reject the frequent if convenient assumption in trade theory that consumer preferences are identical across countries: the median level of compensation demanded by English and French consumers to consume a GM food is found to be more than twice that in any of the US locations. Results have important implications for trade theory, which typically focusses on differences in specialization, comparative advantage and factor endowments across countries, and for on-going trade disputes at the World Trade Organization.

Eliciting consumer preferences for certified animal-friendly foods: can elements of the theory of planned behavior improve choice experiment analysis?

Models used in neoclassical economics assume human behaviour to be purely rational. On the other hand, models adopted in social and behavioural psychology are founded on the ‘black box’ of human cognition. In view of these observations, this paper aims at bridging this gap by introducing psychological constructs in the well established microeconomic framework of choice behaviour based on random utility theory. In particular, it combines constructs developed employing Ajzen’s theory of planned behaviour with Lancaster’s theory of consumer demand for product characteristics to explain stated preferences over certified animal-friendly foods. To reach this objective a web survey was administered in the largest five EU-25 countries: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK. Findings identify some salient cross-cultural differences between northern and southern Europe and suggest that psychological constructs developed using the Ajzen model are useful in explaining heterogeneity of preferences. Implications for policy makers and marketers involved with certified animal-friendly foods are discussed.

Demand and supply: price elasticities and corporate performance in the UK

This paper investigates the relationship between consumer demand and corporate performance in several consumer industries in the UK, using two independent datasets. It uses data on consumer expenditures and the retail price index to estimate Almost Ideal Demand Systems on micro-data and compute timevarying price elasticities of demand for disaggregated commodity groups. Then, it matches the product definitions to the Standard Industry Classification and uses the estimated elasticities to investigate the impact of consumer behaviour on firm-level profitability equations. The time-varying household characteristics are ideal instruments for the demand effects in the firms' supply equation. The paper concludes that demand elasticities have a significant and tangible impact on the profitability of UK firms and that this impact can shed some light on the relationship between market structure and economic performance.

Nothing so certain as your anchors? A consumer bias that might lower prices

Anchoring is a well-known decision-making bias: original guesses for a certain question could act as anchors and could influence our final answers. Reference prices - in a similar fashion - can lead to a bias in consumer valuations, and thus consumer demand will be coherent but not one derived from a utility framework. In our paper we investigate the effect of the existence of anchoring on how oligopolistic firms might change their pricing strategy. More specifically, we analyze the effect of anchoring on pricing when differentiated firms compete in Bertrand fashion. We show that if the anchoring effect is smaller than a threshold the average price is lower compared to the no-anchoring case.

Biotransformação de limoneno: uma revisão das principais rotas metabólicas

There is considerable progress in the study of the biotransformation of limonene. Extensive research on the biotransformation of limonene has resulted in the elucidation of new metabolic pathways. Natural flavors can be produced via biotransformation, satisfying consumer demand for natural products. This review presents some elements concerning the biotransformation of limonene with emphasis on the metabolic pathways. Some comments are also made on problems related to biocatalysis as well as on the application of some compounds originating from the biotransformation of the inexpensive limonene.

Willingness to pay for different degrees of abundance of elephants

This paper presents an application of the contingent valuation method (CVM) to determine how the willingness to pay (WTP) for conservation of Asian elephants varies with hypothetical variations in their population. Results from a CVM survey of a sample of urban residents in Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka are used for this purpose. We find, consistent with the basic principles of consumer demand theory, the marginal change in the respondents’ WTP amounts is positive but appears to diminish in parallel to the increases in the current wild elephant population (CWEP). In contrast to theoretical expectations, however, we find that the WTP for preserving this species increases at an increasing rate in relation to decreases in the CWEP. This is probably because respondents perceive that extinction becomes more imminent as the abundance of the elephant is reduced and therefore it becomes more urgent to act. However, this adds a new complication to the interpretation of the WTP findings.

Eating 'Green': Motivations behind organic food consumption in Australia

Central to the development of green lifestyles is the consumption of foods that by dint of their status as chemical-free, locally produced and/or free of genetically modified ingredients, reduce the environmental impact of food provision. Yet there are many other factors, such as health concerns, that may also encourage the consumption of 'green' foods. This paper explores the ways in which Australian consumers construct organic food-a sector of the food industry that is currently growing at between 20 and 50 percent per annum but is struggling to keep up with rising consumer demand. In order to examine the significance of 'green' signifiers in the consumption practices of Australian consumers a series of focus group interviews and a national consumer survey were conducted. These examined both those characteristics of food that were valued in general, and those meanings that were associated with organic food in particular. In very general terms, analysis reveals that while consumers believed organic foods to be healthy and environmentally sound-both of which were considered desirable-these characteristics were subsumed by an overarching concern with convenience. This does not mean that consumers did not hold genuinely positive environmental attitudes. Rather, it reflects a range of contradictory beliefs and practices that appeared to derive from the discursive conflict between conventional and organic food industries over environmental, health and safety claims. The paper concludes by identifying the barriers and opportunities for expanding the organic industry in Australia in the context of the ways organics is constructed by consumers.

Alianças estratégicas: análise do sector exportador de produtos português

Dissertação de Mestrado em Finanças Empresariais

Implementação e validação de um método para determinação de contaminantes em vinho por microextração em fase sólida e gc-ms/ms e sua correlação com a análise sensorial

Cada vez mais começa a notar-se, na indústria vitivinícola, uma grande preocupação com a qualidade dos seus produtos, motivada pela maior sensibilização e exigência dos consumidores. Deste modo, a presença de defeitos organoléticos no vinho representa uma fonte de perda financeira nesta indústria, pelo que o seu controlo se torna indispensável para que se obtenha um produto de elevada qualidade. Neste sentido, torna-se interessante desenvolver um método de análise que seja rápido de forma a permitir a quantificação simultânea das moléculas identificadas como principais responsáveis pelos distúrbios olfativos dos vinhos. Assim, este trabalho surge com o objetivo de implementar e validar um método para a determinação de contaminantes em vinho por microextração em fase sólida (SPME) e cromatografia gasosa acoplada à espetrometria de massa tandem (GC-MS/MS) e a sua correlação com a análise sensorial. A técnica de microextração em fase sólida é simples e rápida na medida em que não requer um pré-tratamento da amostra. Por sua vez, a análise por GC-MS permite identificar de forma clara os compostos em estudo, nomeadamente, 4-Etilfenol (4-EP), 4-Etilguaiacol (4-EG), 2,4,6-Tricloroanisol (TCA), 2,3,4,6-Tetracloroanisol (TeCA) e 2,4,6-Tribromoanisol (TBA). Foram realizados estudos de otimização das condições de extração, comparando as fibras 100 μm PDMS e 50/30 μm DVB/CAR/PDMS. Obtiveram-se resultados mais satisfatórios, em termos de resposta e da relação sinal/ruído, com a fibra 50/30 μm DVB/CAR/PDMS e estabeleceram-se como condições de extração 55ºC para a temperatura de incubação/extração, uma velocidade de agitação de 250 rpm e 60 minutos de tempo de extração. Ao longo deste trabalho, analisaram-se 50 amostras de vinho, das quais 48 eram amostras de Vinho Tinto do Douro e 2 de Vinho do Porto. Para validar a metodologia foram realizados estudos de linearidade, limiares analíticos, repetibilidade, precisão intermédia e recuperação. De um modo geral, obtiveram-se bons resultados ao nível da linearidade para as gamas de concentração escolhidas. Quanto aos limites de deteção e de quantificação, o 4-EP é o contaminante que apresenta uma gama de concentrações mais alta, notando-se limiares analíticos mais elevados, com valores próximos dos últimos níveis de concentração, oscilando entre 65 e 583 μg/L. No caso dos Anisóis, o TBA apresenta limites de deteção mais baixos, entre 0,4 e 17,0 ng/L. Os limiares analíticos foram validados com recurso a estudos de precisão intermédia e repetibilidade, cujos resultados se encontram dentro das especificações descritas no documento SANCO/10684/2009 (%RSD ≤ 30% para os Anisóis e %RSD ≤ 20% para os Fenóis Voláteis). Foram, ainda, realizados estudos de exatidão recorrendo a ensaios de recuperação e a ensaios interlaboratoriais. Muitas vezes conseguem-se boas recuperações, no entanto notam-se maiores dificuldades para o TBA e para o TeCA. Relativamente aos ensaios interlaboratoriais, verificam-se maiores discrepâncias para o 4-EP. Já os restantes contaminantes apresentam resultados, geralmente, satisfatórios (|z-score| ≤ 2).