915 resultados para conservative scenario
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Includes bibliography
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The role of the People’s Republic of China in the world economy has grown substantially in recent decades, turning it into a strategic foreign trading partner for much of Latin America. Bilateral trade between the region and China totalled US$ 120 billion in 2009. This study analyses the income elasticity of the region’s exports to the country. The findings show that, assuming real gross domestic product (gdp) growth in China of about 7% a year, the value of Latin American exports to China (at 2005 prices) can be expected to increase by an average of about 10% a year between 2014 and 2019. In a more conservative scenario of 4.5% average annual growth in the Chinese economy over the period, exports would rise by about 7% a year.
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A great increase of private car ownership took place in China from 1980 to 2009 with the development of the economy. To explain the relationship between car ownership and economic and social changes, an ordinary least squares linear regression model is developed using car ownership per capita as the dependent variable with GDP, savings deposits and highway mileages per capita as the independent variables. The model is tested and corrected for econometric problems such as spurious correlation and cointegration. Finally, the regression model is used to project oil consumption by the Chinese transportation sector through 2015. The result shows that about 2.0 million barrels of oil will be consumed by private cars in conservative scenario, and about 2.6 million barrels of oil per day in high case scenario in 2015. Both of them are much higher than the consumption level of 2009, which is 1.9 million barrels per day. It also shows that the annual growth rate of oil demand by transportation is 2.7% - 3.1% per year in the conservative scenario, and 6.9% - 7.3% per year in the high case forecast scenario from 2010 to 2015. As a result, actions like increasing oil efficiency need to be taken to deal with challenges of the increasing demand for oil.
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In order to guarantee a sustainable supply of future energy demand without compromising the environment, some actions for a substantial reduction of CO 2 emissions are nowadays deeply analysed. One of them is the improvement of the nuclear energy use. In this framework, innovative gas-cooled reactors (both thermal and fast) seem to be very attractive from the electricity production point of view and for the potential industrial use along the high temperature processes (e.g., H 2 production by steam reforming or I-S process). This work focuses on a preliminary (and conservative) evaluation of possible advantages that a symbiotic cycle (EPR-PBMR-GCFR) could entail, with special regard to the reduction of the HLW inventory and the optimization of the exploitation of the fuel resources. The comparison between the symbiotic cycle chosen and the reference one (once-through scenario, i.e., EPR-SNF directly disposed) shows a reduction of the time needed to reach a fixed reference level from ∼170000 years to ∼1550 years (comparable with typical human times and for this reason more acceptable by the public opinion). In addition, this cycle enables to have a more efficient use of resources involved: the total electric energy produced becomes equal to ∼630 TWh/year (instead of only ∼530 TWh/year using only EPR) without consuming additional raw materials. © 2009 Barbara Vezzoni et al.
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Diffusion equations that use time fractional derivatives are attractive because they describe a wealth of problems involving non-Markovian Random walks. The time fractional diffusion equation (TFDE) is obtained from the standard diffusion equation by replacing the first-order time derivative with a fractional derivative of order α ∈ (0, 1). Developing numerical methods for solving fractional partial differential equations is a new research field and the theoretical analysis of the numerical methods associated with them is not fully developed. In this paper an explicit conservative difference approximation (ECDA) for TFDE is proposed. We give a detailed analysis for this ECDA and generate discrete models of random walk suitable for simulating random variables whose spatial probability density evolves in time according to this fractional diffusion equation. The stability and convergence of the ECDA for TFDE in a bounded domain are discussed. Finally, some numerical examples are presented to show the application of the present technique.
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Over the last few decades, most large cities in the developing world have been experiencing rapid and imbalanced transport sector development resulting in severe congestion and poor levels of service. The most common response at a policy level under this circumstance has been to focus on private and public motorized transport modes, and especially on traffic control measures and mass transit systems. Despite their major role in the overall transport system in many developing cities in Asia & Latin America, relatively little attention is given to non-motorized transport (NMT) modes (walk, bicycle and cycle-rickshaw). In particular, this ideology is applicable to the paid category of non-motorized public transport (NMPT), notably three-wheeler cycle rickshaws that still have an important socio-economic, environmental and trip-making role in many developing cities. Despite, they are often seen as inefficient and backward; an impediment to progress; and inconsistent with modern urban image. Policy measures therefore, to restrict or eliminate non-motorized transport from urban arterials and other feeder networks have been implemented in cities as diverse as Dhaka, Delhi, Karachi, Bangkok, Jakarta, Manila, Surabaya and Beijing . This paper will primarily investigate the key contribution of NMPT in the sustainable transport system and urban fabric of developing cities, with Dhaka as case study. The paper will also highlight in detail the impediments towards NMPT development and provide introductory concept on possible role this mode is expected to play into the future of these cities
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This paper reports research undertaken as part of a larger project in which we examined whether and how values and beliefs communicated by Australian politicians have shaped decades of health policy and influenced health outcomes for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples of Australia. To first characterise those values and beliefs we analysed the public statements of the politicians responsible nationally for the health of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples 1972–2001, using critical discourse analysis. We found that four discourses, communicated through words, phrases, sentences and grammatical structures, dominated public statements over the study period. These four discourses focused on the competence and capacity of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples to “manage”; matters of control of and responsibility for the health of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples; Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples as “Other”; and the nature of the “problem” concerning the health of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples. Analysis of the discursive elements contributing to shaping these four discourses is reported in this paper.
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ERP systems generally implement controls to prevent certain common kinds of fraud. In addition however, there is an imperative need for detection of more sophisticated patterns of fraudulent activity as evidenced by the legal requirement for company audits and the common incidence of fraud. This paper describes the design and implementation of a framework for detecting patterns of fraudulent activity in ERP systems. We include the description of six fraud scenarios and the process of specifying and detecting the occurrence of those scenarios in ERP user log data using the prototype software which we have developed. The test results for detecting these scenarios in log data have been verified and confirm the success of our approach which can be generalized to ERP systems in general.