Epävarmuustarkastelun soveltaminen deterministisissä turvallisuusanalyyseissä

Tässä diplomityössä esitetään selvitys käytössä olevista deterministisistä turvallisuusanalyysimenetelmistä. Deterministisillä turvallisuusanalyyseillä arvioidaan ydinvoimalaitosten turvallisuutta eri käyttötilojen aikana. Voimalaitoksen turvallisuusjärjestelmät mitoitetaan deterministisen turvallisuusanalyysin tulosten perusteella. Deterministiset turvallisuusanalyysit voidaan laatia konservatiivista tai tilastollista menetelmää käyttäen. Konservatiivinen menetelmä pyrkii mallintamaan tarkasteltavan tilanteen siten, että laitoksen todellinen käyttäytyminen on hyvällä varmuudella lievempää kuin analyysitulos. Konservatiivisessa menetelmässä analyysin epävarmuudet huomioidaan konservatiivisilla oletuksilla. Tilastollinen menetelmä perustuu parhaan arvion menetelmään eli pyrkimykseen mallintaa laitoksen käyttäytyminen mahdollisimman todenmukaisesti. Tilastollisessa menetelmässä analyysin epävarmuudet määritetään systemaattisesti tilastomatematiikan keinoin. Työssä painotetaan tilastollisen analyysin epävarmuuksien määritykseen käytettäviä epävarmuustarkastelumenetelmiä. Diplomityön laskennallisessa osassa vertaillaan deterministisen turvallisuusanalyysin laadintaan käytettäviä menetelmiä termohydraulisen turvallisuusanalyysiesimerkin laskennan kautta. Laskennassa tarkasteltavana onnettomuutena on Olkiluoto 3-laitosyksikössä tapahtuva primäärijäähdytepiirin putkikatkosta aiheutuva jäähdytteenmenetysonnettomuus. Lasketun esimerkkitapauksen perusteella tilastollista ja konservatiivista menetelmää voidaan pitää vaihtoehtoisina turvallisuusanalyysin laadintaan. Molemmat analyysit tuottivat hyväksyttäviä ja toisilleen verrannollisia tuloksia, joiden suuruusluokka on sama.

Do in vivo terahertz imaging systems comply with safety guidelines?

Techniques for the coherent generation and detection of electromagnetic radiation in the far infrared, or terahertz, region of the electromagnetic spectrum have recently developed rapidly and may soon be applied for in vivo medical imaging. Both continuous wave and pulsed imaging systems are under development, with terahertz pulsed imaging being the more common method. Typically a pump and probe technique is used, with picosecond pulses of terahertz radiation generated from femtosecond infrared laser pulses, using an antenna or nonlinear crystal. After interaction with the subject either by transmission or reflection, coherent detection is achieved when the terahertz beam is combined with the probe laser beam. Raster scanning of the subject leads to an image data set comprising a time series representing the pulse at each pixel. A set of parametric images may be calculated, mapping the values of various parameters calculated from the shape of the pulses. A safety analysis has been performed, based on current guidelines for skin exposure to radiation of wavelengths 2.6 µm–20 mm (15 GHz–115 THz), to determine the maximum permissible exposure (MPE) for such a terahertz imaging system. The international guidelines for this range of wavelengths are drawn from two U.S. standards documents. The method for this analysis was taken from the American National Standard for the Safe Use of Lasers (ANSI Z136.1), and to ensure a conservative analysis, parameters were drawn from both this standard and from the IEEE Standard for Safety Levels with Respect to Human Exposure to Radio Frequency Electromagnetic Fields (C95.1). The calculated maximum permissible average beam power was 3 mW, indicating that typical terahertz imaging systems are safe according to the current guidelines. Further developments may however result in systems that will exceed the calculated limit. Furthermore, the published MPEs for pulsed exposures are based on measurements at shorter wavelengths and with pulses of longer duration than those used in terahertz pulsed imaging systems, so the results should be treated with caution.

Conservative Treatment of Stress Urinary Incontinence: A Systematic Review with Meta-analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials that studied the conservative management of stress urinary incontinence (SUI). There were 1058 results after the initial searches, from which 37 studies were eligible according to previously determined inclusion criteria. For the primary outcomes, pelvic floor muscle training (PFMT) was more efficacious than no treatment in improving incontinence-specific quality of life (QoL) scales (SMD = [1]1.24SDs; CI 95% = [1]1.77 to [1]0.71SDs). However, its effect on pad tests was imprecise. Combining biofeedback with PFMT had an uncertain effect on QoL (MD = [1]4.4 points; CI 95% = [1]16.69 to 7.89 points), but better results on the pad test, although with elevated heterogeneity (MD = 0.9g; 95%CI = 0.71 to 1,10g); group PFMT was not less efficacious than individual treatment, and home PFMT was not consistently worse than supervised PFMT. Both intravaginal and superficial electrical stimulation (IES and SES) were better than no treatment for QoL and pad test. Vaginal cones had mixed results. The association of IES with PFMT may improve the efficacy of the latter for QoL and pad test, but the results of individual studies were not consistent. Thus, there is evidence of the use of PFMT on the treatment of SUI, with and without biofeedback.

Outcome Analysis of Immediate and Delayed Conservative Breast Surgery Reconstruction With Mastopexy and Reduction Mammaplasty Techniques

Background: Bilateral mammaplasty or mastopexy is frequently used for oncoplastic objectives. However, little information has been available regarding outcome following immediate and delayed reconstruction. Method: Patients were divided into Group I (immediate reconstruction) and Group II (delayed reconstruction). Retrospective review was performed to compare complications, length of hospital stay, revision surgeries, and satisfaction. The associations between the complications with potential risk factors (timing, age, body mass index, smoking, and comorbid medical conditions) were analyzed. Results: There were a total of 144 patients with a mean follow-up of 47 months. Of the 106 patients in Group I, complications occurred in 24 (22.6%), skin necrosis was observed in 7.5%, fat necrosis in 5.6%, and 6.6% patients developed local recurrence. Mean period of hospitalization was 1.89 days. Of the 38 patients of the Group II, complications occurred in 12 (31.5%), skin necrosis was observed in 7 (18.4%), fat necrosis in 4 (10.5%), and 5.2% patients developed local recurrence. Mean period of hospitalization was 1.35 days. Increased length of hospital stay greater than 1 day (P < 0.001) and the number of revision surgeries (P = 0.043) were associated with the timing of the reconstruction. In univariate analysis, no difference between groups was found with respect to complication incidence (P = 0.275); however, after adjusting for other risk factors, the probability of complications tend to be higher for Group II (OR = 2.65; 95% confidence interval - 1.01-7.00; P = 0.049). Conclusions: On the basis of the results of our study, the probability of complications tends to be higher for delayed reconstructions, and it is demonstrated that obesity and smoking are risk factors for complications. Ultimately, these data may facilitate the provision of individualized risk information for shared medical decision-making.

Conservative fluid management or deresuscitation for patients with sepsis or acute respiratory distress syndrome following the resuscitation phase of critical illness: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

It is unknown whether a conservative approach to fluid administration or deresuscitation (active removal of fluid using diuretics or renal replacement therapy) is beneficial following haemodynamic stabilisation of critically ill patients.

Purpose

To evaluate the efficacy and safety of conservative or deresuscitative fluid strategies in adults and children with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), sepsis or systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) in the post-resuscitation phase of critical illness.

Methods

We searched Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane central register of controlled trials from 1980 to June 2016, and manually reviewed relevant conference proceedings from 2009 to the present. Two reviewers independently assessed search results for inclusion and undertook data extraction and quality appraisal. We included randomised trials comparing fluid regimens with differing fluid balances between groups, and observational studies investigating the relationship between fluid balance and clinical outcomes.

Results

Forty-nine studies met the inclusion criteria. Marked clinical heterogeneity was evident. In a meta-analysis of 11 randomised trials (2051 patients) using a random-effects model, we found no significant difference in mortality with conservative or deresuscitative strategies compared with a liberal strategy or usual care [pooled risk ratio (RR) 0.92, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.82–1.02, I2 = 0 %]. A conservative or deresuscitative strategy resulted in increased ventilator-free days (mean difference 1.82 days, 95 % CI 0.53–3.10, I2 = 9 %) and reduced length of ICU stay (mean difference −1.88 days, 95 % CI −0.12 to −3.64, I2 = 75 %) compared with a liberal strategy or standard care.

Conclusions

In adults and children with ARDS, sepsis or SIRS, a conservative or deresuscitative fluid strategy results in an increased number of ventilator-free days and a decreased length of ICU stay compared with a liberal strategy or standard care. The effect on mortality remains uncertain. Large randomised trials are needed to determine optimal fluid strategies in critical illness.

Cervical Injuries Scored According To The Subaxial Injury Classification System: An Analysis Of The Literature.

The Subaxial Injury Classification (SLIC) system and severity score has been developed to help surgeons in the decision-making process of treatment of subaxial cervical spine injuries. A detailed description of all potential scored injures of the SLIC is lacking. We performed a systematic review in the PubMed database from 2007 to 2014 to describe the relationship between the scored injuries in the SLIC and their eventual treatment according to the system score. Patients with an SLIC of 1-3 points (conservative treatment) are neurologically intact with the spinous process, laminar or small facet fractures. Patients with compression and burst fractures who are neurologically intact are also treated nonsurgically. Patients with an SLIC of 4 points may have an incomplete spinal cord injury such as a central cord syndrome, compression injuries with incomplete neurologic deficits and burst fractures with complete neurologic deficits. SLIC of 5-10 points includes distraction and rotational injuries, traumatic disc herniation in the setting of a neurological deficit and burst fractures with an incomplete neurologic deficit. The SLIC injury severity score can help surgeons guide fracture treatment. Knowledge of the potential scored injures and their relationships with the SLIC are of paramount importance for spine surgeons who treated subaxial cervical spine injuries.

Surgical Treatment Of Microinvasive Cervical Cancer: Analysis Of Pathologic Features With Implications On Radicality.

To evaluate pathologic features with implications on surgical radicality in women treated with radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymphadenectomy for cervical cancer stage IA1 with lymph vascular space invasion (LVSI) and stage IA2 by correlating findings in conization and hysterectomy specimens. Women with cervical cancer stage IA1 with LVSI and stage IA2 diagnosed by loop electrosurgical excisional procedure or cold knife conization were treated with radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymphadenectomy from January 1999 to December 2011 in 2 institutions. Fifty patients were enrolled: 40 with stage IA2 and 10 with stage IA1 with LVSI. Median age was 43 (30-67) years. All patients underwent cervical conization for diagnosis (45 loop electrosurgical excisional procedure, 5 cold knife). Lymph vascular space invasion was detected in 15 patients (30%). Two patients had positive pelvic nodes. No parametrial involvement was detected in the entire cohort. Positive margins were present in 35 patients, and residual disease was detected in 22 patients (44%). Positive margins predicted residual disease at radical hysterectomy (P = 0.02). Medium follow-up time was 51 months. One patient developed a pelvic recurrence, and there were no disease-related deaths. Patients with positive margins in cone biopsy specimens have an increased risk of residual disease at radical hysterectomy and require careful evaluation before conservative surgery. Pelvic lymph node evaluation is essential because lymph node metastasis may occur even in early stages. The lack of parametrial invasion in this study reinforces the knowledge that the select group of patients with microinvasive cervical carcinoma stages IA1 LVSI and stage IA2 have a very low risk of parametrial infiltration. Less radical surgery can be carefully considered for these patients.

Two dimensional analysis of inflatable structures by the positional FEM

This paper presents a, simple two dimensional frame formulation to deal with structures undergoing large motions due to dynamic actions including very thin inflatable structures, balloons. The proposed methodology is based on the minimum potential energy theorem written regarding nodal positions. Velocity, acceleration and strain are achieved directly from positions, not. displacements, characterizing the novelty of the proposed technique. A non-dimensional space is created and the deformation function (change of configuration) is written following two independent mappings from which the strain energy function is written. The classical New-mark equations are used to integrate time. Dumping and non-conservative forces are introduced into the mechanical system by a rheonomic energy function. The final formulation has the advantage of being simple and easy to teach, when compared to classical Counterparts. The behavior of a bench-mark problem (spin-up maneuver) is solved to prove the formulation regarding high circumferential speed applications. Other examples are dedicated to inflatable and very thin structures, in order to test the formulation for further analysis of three dimensional balloons.

An EFG method for the nonlinear analysis of plates undergoing arbitrarily large deformations

The applicability of a meshfree approximation method, namely the EFG method, on fully geometrically exact analysis of plates is investigated. Based on a unified nonlinear theory of plates, which allows for arbitrarily large rotations and displacements, a Galerkin approximation via MLS functions is settled. A hybrid method of analysis is proposed, where the solution is obtained by the independent approximation of the generalized internal displacement fields and the generalized boundary tractions. A consistent linearization procedure is performed, resulting in a semi-definite generalized tangent stiffness matrix which, for hyperelastic materials and conservative loadings, is always symmetric (even for configurations far from the generalized equilibrium trajectory). Besides the total Lagrangian formulation, an updated version is also presented, which enables the treatment of rotations beyond the parameterization limit. An extension of the arc-length method that includes the generalized domain displacement fields, the generalized boundary tractions and the load parameter in the constraint equation of the hyper-ellipsis is proposed to solve the resulting nonlinear problem. Extending the hybrid-displacement formulation, a multi-region decomposition is proposed to handle complex geometries. A criterium for the classification of the equilibrium`s stability, based on the Bordered-Hessian matrix analysis, is suggested. Several numerical examples are presented, illustrating the effectiveness of the method. Differently from the standard finite element methods (FEM), the resulting solutions are (arbitrary) smooth generalized displacement and stress fields. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors of local recurrence after treatment of ductal carcinoma in situ - A meta-analysis

lBACKGROUND. Management of patients with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is a dilemma, as mastectomy provides nearly a 100% cure rate but at the expense of physical and psychologic morbidity. It would be helpful if we could predict which patients with DCIS are at sufficiently high risk of local recurrence after conservative surgery (CS) alone to warrant postoperative radiotherapy (RT) and which patients are at sufficient risk of local recurrence after CS + RT to warrant mastectomy. The authors reviewed the published studies and identified the factors that may be predictive of local recurrence after management by mastectomy, CS alone, or CS + RT. METHODS. The authors examined patient, tumor, and treatment factors as potential predictors for local recurrence and estimated the risks of recurrence based on a review of published studies. They examined the effects of patient factors (age at diagnosis and family history), tumor factors (sub-type of DCIS, grade, tumor size, necrosis, and margins), and treatment (mastectomy, CS alone, and CS + RT). The 95% confidence intervals (CI) of the recurrence rates for each of the studies were calculated for subtype, grade, and necrosis, using the exact binomial; the summary recurrence rate and 95% CI for each treatment category were calculated by quantitative meta-analysis using the fixed and random effects models applied to proportions. RESULTS, Meta-analysis yielded a summary recurrence rate of 22.5% (95% CI = 16.9-28.2) for studies employing CS alone, 8.9% (95% CI = 6.8-11.0) for CS + RT, and 1.4% (95% CI = 0.7-2.1) for studies involving mastectomy alone. These summary figures indicate a clear and statistically significant separation, and therefore outcome, between the recurrence rates of each treatment category, despite the likelihood that the patients who underwent CS alone were likely to have had smaller, possibly low grade lesions with clear margins. The patients with risk factors of presence of necrosis, high grade cytologic features, or comedo subtype were found to derive the greatest improvement in local control with the addition of RT to CS. Local recurrence among patients treated by CS alone is approximately 20%, and one-half of the recurrences are invasive cancers. For most patients, RT reduces the risk of recurrence after CS alone by at least 50%. The differences in local recurrence between CS alone and CS + RT are most apparent for those patients with high grade tumors or DCIS with necrosis, or of the comedo subtype, or DCIS with close or positive surgical margins. CONCLUSIONS, The authors recommend that radiation be added to CS if patients with DCIS who also have the risk factors for local recurrence choose breast conservation over mastectomy. The patients who may be suitable for CS alone outside of a clinical trial may be those who have low grade lesions with little or no necrosis, and with clear surgical margins. Use of the summary statistics when discussing outcomes with patients may help the patient make treatment decisions. Cancer 1999;85:616-28. (C) 1999 American Cancer Society.

Pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy: the conservative treatment of choice

Background: A pancreatic fistula (PF) is the most common complication after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD), and its reported incidence varies from 2% to 28%. The aim of the present study was to analyse the treatment of a complicated PF comparing the surgical approach with conservative techniques. Methods: From January 2000 through to August 2006, 121 patients were submitted for PD. The study consisted of 70 men and 47 women, with a median age of 60 years (SD +/- 12). The main indications for PD were pancreatic duct carcinoma in 52 patients (44.5%), ampullary carcinoma or adenoma in 18 (15.4%) and islet cell tumour in 11 (9.4%). Reconstruction by pancreatogastrostomy was performed in 65 patients (55.6%), and pancreatojejunostomy in 52 patients (44%). Results: Thirty-five patients (30%) developed a PF. Amongst these, 20 were managed conservatively and 14 were reoperated. These two groups of patients were compared with patients without a PF for analysis. There was no significant difference in the mean age, the gender ratio, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, surgical time and blood replacement, number of associated procedures, vascular resection and type of reconstruction between the three groups. There were five post-operative deaths (4.2%), three patients (21.4%) in the surgical treatment group (P < 0.01). Mean total number of complications (P = 0.02) and mean length of hospital stay (P < 0.001) were greater in the surgical group. The medium delay between the pancreatic resection and reoperation was 10 days (range, 3-32 days). Completion splenopancreatectomy was required in five patients whereas conservative treatment including debridement and drainage was applied in nine patients. Conclusion: The surgical approach for a PF is associated with a higher mortality and morbidity. There is no advantage in performing completion pancreatectomy (CP) instead of extensive drainage as a result of the same mortality and morbidity rates and the risk of endocrine insufficiency. In cases of complicated PF, radiological or surgical conservative treatment is recommended.

Work domain analysis and sensors II: Pasteurizer II case study

In this paper we use sensor-annotated abstraction hierarchies (Reising & Sanderson, 1996, 2002a,b) to show that unless appropriately instrumented, configural displays designed according to the principles of ecological interface design (EID) might be vulnerable to misinterpretation when sensors become unreliable or are unavailable. Building on foundations established in Reising and Sanderson (2002a) we use a pasteurization process control example to show how sensor-annotated AHs help the analyst determine the impact of different instrumentation engineering policies on a configural display that is part of an ecological interface. Our analyses suggest that configural displays showing higher-order properties of a system are especially vulnerable under some conservative instrumentation configurations. However, sensor-annotated AHs can be used to indicate where corrective instrumentation might be placed. We argue that if EID is to be effectively employed in the design of displays for complex systems, then the information needs of the human operator need to be considered while instrumentation requirements are being formulated. Rasmussen's abstraction hierarchy-and particularly its extension to the analysis of information captured by sensors and derived from sensors-may therefore be a useful adjunct to up-stream instrumentation design. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Delamination analysis of carbon fibre reinforced laminates: evaluation of a special step drill

Drilling of carbon fibre/epoxy laminates is usually carried out using standard drills. However, it is necessary to adapt the processes and/or tooling as the risk of delamination, or other damages, is high. These problems can affect mechanical properties of produced parts, therefore, lower reliability. In this paper, four different drills – three commercial and a special step (prototype) – are compared in terms of thrust force during drilling and delamination. In order to evaluate damage, enhanced radiography is applied. The resulting images were then computational processed using a previously developed image processing and analysis platform. Results show that the prototype drill had encouraging results in terms of maximum thrust force and delamination reduction. Furthermore, it is possible to state that a correct choice of drill geometry, particularly the use of a pilot hole, a conservative cutting speed – 53 m/min – and a low feed rate – 0.025 mm/rev – can help to prevent delamination.