Essays on international macroeconomics and conflict analysis

This dissertation addressed two broad problems in international macroeconomics and conflict analysis. The first problem in the first chapter looked at the behavior of exchange rate and its interaction with industry-level tradable goods prices for three countries, USA, UK and Japan. This question has important monetary policy implications. Here, I computed to what extent changes in exchange rate affected prices of consumer, producer, and export goods. I also studied the timing of these changes in these prices. My results, based on thirty-four industrial prices for USA, UK and Japan, supported the view that changes in exchange rates significantly affect prices of industrial and consumer goods. It also provided an insight to the underlying economic process that led to changes in relative prices. ^ In the second chapter, I explored the predictability of future inflation by incorporating shocks to exchange rates and clearly specified the transmission mechanisms that link exchange rates to industry-level consumer and producer prices. Employing a variety of linear and state-of-the-art nonlinear models, I also predicted growth rates of future prices. Comparing levels of inflation obtained from the above approaches showed superiority of the structural model incorporating the exchange rate pass-through effect. ^ The second broad issue addressed in the third chapter of the dissertation investigated the economic motives for conflict, manifested by rebellion and civil war for seventeen Latin American countries. Based on the analytical framework of Garfinkel, Skaperdas and Syropoulos (2004), I employed ordinal regressions and Markov switching for a panel of seventeen countries to identify trade and openness factors responsible for conflict occurrence and intensity. The results suggested that increased trade openness reduced high intensity domestic conflicts but overdependence on agricultural exports, along with a lack of income earning opportunities lead to more conflicts. Thereafter, using the Cox Proportional Hazard model I studied “conflict duration” and found that over-reliance on agricultural exports explained a major part of the length of conflicts in addition to various socio-political factors. ^

Youth criminality and urban social conflict in the city of Rosario, Argentina. Analysis and proposals for conflict transformation

The present article describes and analyses youth criminality in the city of Rosario, Argentina between the years 2003-2006. Key actors’ understandings of and responses to the conflict were investigated by means of semi-structured interviews, observations, discourse analysis of policy documents, analysis of secondary data, and draw heavily on the experience of the author, a citizen and youth worker of Rosario. The actors examined were the police, the local government, young delinquents and youth organisations. Youth criminality is analysed from a conflict transformation approach using conflict analysis tools. Whereas, the provincial police understand the issue as a delinquency problem, other actors perceive it as an expression of a wider urban social conflict between those that are “included” and those that are “excluded” and as one of the negative effects of globalisation processes. The results suggest that police responses addressing only direct violence are ineffective, even contributing to increased tensions and polarisation, whereas strategies addressing cultural and structural violence are more suitable for this type of social urban conflict. Finally, recommendations for local youth policy are proposed to facilitate participation and inclusion of youth and as a tool for peaceful conflict transformation.

Traditional Village Governance (Desa Adat) and Inter-ethnic Conflict in Bali : A Study of Conflict between Balinese and Migrants: Cases from Municipality of Denpasar

Regional autonomy in Indonesia was initially introduced as a means of pacifying regional disappointment at the central government. Not only did the Regional Autonomy Law of 1999 give the Balinese a chance to express grievance regarding the centralist policies of the Jakarta government but also provided an opportunity to return to the regional, exclusive, traditional village governance (desa adat). As a result, the problems faced by the island, particularly ethnic conflicts, are increasingly handled by the mechanism of this traditional type of governance. Traditional village governance with regard to ethnic conflicts (occurring) between Balinese and migrants has never been systematically analyzed. Existing analyses emphasized only the social context, but do not explain either the cause of conflicts and the ensuing problems entails or the virtues of traditional village governance mechanisms for mediating in the conflict. While some accounts provide snapshots, they lack both theoretical and conflict study perspective. The primary aim of this dissertation is to explore the expression and the causes of conflict between the Balinese and migrants and to advance the potential of traditional village governance as a means of conflict resolution with particular reference to the municipality of Denpasar. One conclusion of the study is that the conflict between the Balinese and migrants has been expressed on the level of situation/contradiction, attitudes, and behavior. Yet the driving forces behind the conflict itself consist of the following factors: absence of cooperation; incompatible position and perception; inability to communicate effectively; and problem of inequality and injustice, which comes to the surface as a social, cultural, and economic problem. This complex of factors fuels collective fear for the future of both groups. The study concludes that traditional village governance mechanisms as a means of conflict resolution have not yet been able to provide an enduring resolution for the conflict. Analysis shows that the practice of traditional village governance is unable to provide satisfactory mechanisms for the conflict as prescribed by conflict resolution theory. Traditional village governance, which is derived from the exclusive Hindu-Balinese culture, is accepted as more legitimate among the Balinese than the official governance policies. However, it is not generally accepted by most of the Muslim migrants. In addition, traditional village governance lacks access to economic instruments, which weakens its capacity to tackle the economic roots of the conflict. Thus the traditional mechanisms of migrant ordinance , as practiced by the traditional village governance have not yet been successful in penetrating all aspects of the conflict. Finally, one of the main challenges for traditional village governance s legal development is the creation of a regional legal system capable of accommodating rapid changes in line with the national and international legal practices. The framing of the new laws should be responsive to the aspirations of a changing society. It should not only protect the various Balinese communities interests, but also that of other ethnic groups, especially those of the minority. In other words, the main challenge to traditional village governance is its ability to develop flexibility and inclusiveness.

Pedestrian-cyclist interactions at bus stops along segregated bike paths : a case study of Montreal

Safety is one of the major world health issues, and is even more acute for “vulnerable” road users, pedestrians and cyclists. At the same time, public authorities are promoting the active modes of transportation that involve these very users for their health benefits. It is therefore important to understand the factors and designs that provide the best safety for vulnerable road users and encourage more people to use these modes. Qualitative and quantitative shortcomings of collisions make it necessary to use surrogate measures of safety in studying these modes. Some interactions without a collision such as conflicts can be good surrogates of collisions as they are more frequent and less costly. To overcome subjectivity and reliability challenges, automatic conflict analysis using video cameras and deriving users’ trajectories is a solution to overcome shortcomings of manual conflict analysis. The goal of this paper is to identify and characterize various interactions between cyclists and pedestrians at bus stops along bike paths using a fully automated process. Three conflict severity indicators are calculated and adapted to the situation of interest to capture those interactions. A microscopic analysis of users’ behavior is proposed to explain interactions more precisely. Eventually, the study aims to show the capability of automatically collecting and analyzing data for pedestrian-cyclist interactions at bus stops along segregated bike paths in order to better understand the actual and perceived risks of these facilities.

Modeling multi-stakeholder multi-objective decisions during public participation in major infrastructure and construction projects: A decision rule approach

Major infrastructure and construction (MIC) projects are those with significant traffic or environmental impact, of strategic and regional significance and high sensitivity. The decision making process of schemes of this type is becoming ever more complicated, especially with the increasing number of stakeholders involved and their growing tendency to defend their own varied interests. Failing to address and meet the concerns and expectations of stakeholders may result in project failures. To avoid this necessitates a systematic participatory approach to facilitate decision-making. Though numerous decision models have been established in previous studies (e.g. ELECTRE methods, the analytic hierarchy process and analytic network process) their applicability in the decision process during stakeholder participation in contemporary MIC projects is still uncertain. To resolve this, the decision rule approach is employed for modeling multi-stakeholder multi-objective project decisions. Through this, the result is obtained naturally according to the “rules” accepted by any stakeholder involved. In this sense, consensus is more likely to be achieved since the process is more convincing and the result is easier to be accepted by all concerned. Appropriate “rules”, comprehensive enough to address multiple objectives while straightforward enough to be understood by multiple stakeholders, are set for resolving conflict and facilitating consensus during the project decision process. The West Kowloon Cultural District (WKCD) project is used as a demonstration case and a focus group meeting is conducted in order to confirm the validity of the model established. The results indicate that the model is objective, reliable and practical enough to cope with real world problems. Finally, a suggested future research agenda is provided.

Nutzungskonflikte zwischen Windparks und Fischerei in der Nordsee – was die marine Raumordnung noch nicht berücksichtigt

The current approval procedure for wind farm proposals in the German EEZ only considers site specific conflict analysis between the wind farm and fisheries. Due to the relatively small spatial coverage of single sites potential opportunity losses to the fisheries are always considered as low or negligible. Cumulative effects on fisheries that will occur once all proposed wind farms are in place are not yet considered adequately. However, those cumulative effects will be quite substantial because, in particular, opportunities to catch such valuable species as flatfish will be considerably reduced.

Processes of feelings in a society with a violent past : A qualitative study of the communication for Societal healing in the Truth Commissions in East Timor, Sri Lanka and Ghana between 2002-2011

The research investigates in what extent and how communication for meeting feelings is provided in Truth Commission work. It examines if and in what way feelings are addressed in the communication officially published by the Truth Commissions in East Timor, Ghana and Sri Lanka, occurring between 2002-2011. The research is also looking at the healing processes in a time perspective to find out if there is a communication for Societal healing to be continued in a longer term. My conclusion is that two cases of three in my research, the TRCs in Ghana and East Timor, have communication clearly directed to meet feelings caused by the war. One of the three cases (East Timor) has a communication with a clear ambition to heal over a longer period, to continue after the existence of the Truth Commission. The research suggests that communication with a clear ambition to reach out widely in the society, a communication directed to meet and process feelings over a longer period, can make Societal healing more effective. It also concludes that, in the future, Societal healing, as a field in conflict resolution, will be more based on representational media than today, provided through web communication.

Coltan from Central Africa, International Trade and Implications for Any Certification. Bruges European Economic Policy (BEEP) 23/2012

The exploitation of coltan in Central Africa can be considered a case of conflict minerals due to its nature. Many international organizations and bodies, national governments and private sector organizations seek to address this conflict, in particular via transparency, certification and accountability along the material supply chain. This paper analyses the international trade dimension of coltan and gives evidence on the dimension of illicit trade of coltan. The authors start from the hypothesis that illicit trade of coltan sooner or later will enter the market and will be reflected in the statistics. The paper is structured in the following manner: first, a short section gives a profile of coltan production and markets; second, an overview of the mining situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and related actors. The third section addresses mechanisms, actors and measurement issues involved in the international trade of coltan. The final part draws lessons for certification and conflict analysis and offers some guidance for future research. The paper identifies two main possible gateways to trace illegal trade in coltan: the neighbouring countries, especially Rwanda, and the importing countries for downstream production, in particular China. Our estimation is that the value of such illicit trade comes close to $ 27 million annually (2009), roughly one fifth of the world market volume for tantalum production. With regard to any certification the paper concludes that this will become challenging for business and policy: (a) Central Africa currently is the largest supplier of coltan on the world market, many actors profit from the current situation and possess abilities to hide responsibility; (b) China will need to accept more responsibility, a first step would be the acceptance of the OECD guidelines on due diligence; (c) better regional governance in Central Africa comprises of resource taxation, a resource fund and fiscal coordination. An international task force may provide more robust data, however more research will also be needed.

Uma abordagem para evolução e reconciliação de linhas de produtos de software clonadas

Software product line engineering promotes large software reuse by developing a system family that shares a set of developed core features, and enables the selection and customization of a set of variabilities that distinguish each software product family from the others. In order to address the time-to-market, the software industry has been using the clone-and-own technique to create and manage new software products or product lines. Despite its advantages, the clone-and-own approach brings several difficulties for the evolution and reconciliation of the software product lines, especially because of the code conflicts generated by the simultaneous evolution of the original software product line, called Source, and its cloned products, called Target. This thesis proposes an approach to evolve and reconcile cloned products based on mining software repositories and code conflict analysis techniques. The approach provides support to the identification of different kinds of code conflicts – lexical, structural and semantics – that can occur during development task integration – bug correction, enhancements and new use cases – from the original evolved software product line to the cloned product line. We have also conducted an empirical study of characterization of the code conflicts produced during the evolution and merging of two large-scale web information system product lines. The results of our study demonstrate the approach potential to automatically or semi-automatically solve several existing code conflicts thus contributing to reduce the complexity and costs of the reconciliation of cloned software product lines.

Desempenho de analistas sell-side no mercado de ações brasileiro

The purpose of this study was to analyze the behavior of Sell-Side analysts and analysts propose a classification, considering the performance of the price forecasts and recom- mendations (sell-hold-buy) in the Brazilian stock market. For this, the first step was to analyze the consensus of analysts to understand the importance of this collective interven- tion in the market; the second was to analyze the analysts individually to understand how improve their analysis in time. Third was to understand how are the main methods of ranking used in markets. Finally, propose a form of classification that reflects the previous aspects discussed. To investigate the hypotheses proposed in the study were used linear models for panel to capture elements in time. The data of price forecasts and analyst recommendations individually and consensus, in the period 2005-2013 were obtained from Bloomberg R ○ . The main results were: (i) superior performance of consensus recommen- dations, compared with the individual analyzes; (ii) associating the number of analysts issuing recommendations with improved accuracy allows supposing that this number may be associated with increased consensus strength and hence accuracy; (iii) the anchoring effect of the analysts consensus revisions makes his predictions are biased, overvaluating the assets; (iv) analysts need to have greater caution in times of economic turbulence, noting also foreign markets such as the USA. For these may result changes in bias between optimism and pessimism; (v) effects due to changes in bias, as increased pessimism can cause excessive increase in purchase recommendations number. In this case, analysts can should be more cautious in analysis, mainly for consistency between recommendation and the expected price; (vi) the experience of the analyst with the asset economic sector and the asset contributes to the improvement of forecasts, however, the overall experience showed opposite evidence; (vii) the optimism associated with the overall experience, over time, shows a similar behavior to an excess of confidence, which could cause reduction of accuracy; (viii) the conflicting effect of general experience between the accuracy and the observed return shows evidence that, over time, the analyst has effects similar to the endowment bias on assets, which would result in a conflict analysis of recommendations and forecasts ; (ix) despite the focus on fewer sectors contribute to the quality of accuracy, the same does not occur with the focus on assets. So it is possible that analysts may have economies of scale when cover more assets within the same industry; and finally, (x) was possible to develop a proposal for classification analysts to consider both returns and the consistency of these predictions, called Analysis coefficient. This ranking resulted better results, considering the return / standard deviation.

A disputa entre a Rússia e a Ucrânia pela região da Crimeia

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo analisar a tensão criada entre os países da União Europeia, Estados Unidos da América e Ucrânia relativamente à Rússia após a incorporação da península da Crimeia na Federação Russa em 2014, região que pertencia ao território ucraniano desde 1954. Procura descrever os indicadores que confiram ou não a esta crise características de uma nova Guerra Fria. Com este objetivo, analisou-se primeiramente a Guerra Fria que cessou em 1991, com base nas teorias das Relações Internacionais e de poder, na análise de crise e conflito e as características relevantes desta conflitualidade, como o conceito de dissuasão e guerras por procuração. Com base na contextualização histórica da região da Crimeia e os fatores geopolíticos e geoestratégicos dos intervenientes, fundamentaram-se os interesses dos intervenientes nesta questão. Por fim foram analisados a legalidade da intervenção, o posicionamento das partes envolvidas, bem como os mecanismos desenvolvidos para a resolução da situação. O objetivo será responder à discussão se atualmente o Mundo se encontra ou não numa nova Guerra Fria e compreender como será a relação da Rússia com a Ucrânia com os EUA e os países europeus após a incorporação da península.

Statistical analysis of conflict involvements in port water navigation

With increasing rate of shipping traffic, the risk of collisions in busy and congested port waters is likely to rise. However, due to low collision frequencies in port waters, it is difficult to analyze such risk in a sound statistical manner. A convenient approach of investigating navigational collision risk is the application of the traffic conflict techniques, which have potential to overcome the difficulty of obtaining statistical soundness. This study aims at examining port water conflicts in order to understand the characteristics of collision risk with regard to vessels involved, conflict locations, traffic and kinematic conditions. A hierarchical binomial logit model, which considers the potential correlations between observation-units, i.e., vessels, involved in the same conflicts, is employed to evaluate the association of explanatory variables with conflict severity levels. Results show higher likelihood of serious conflicts for vessels of small gross tonnage or small overall length. The probability of serious conflict also increases at locations where vessels have more varied headings, such as traffic intersections and anchorages; becoming more critical at night time. Findings from this research should assist both navigators operating in port waters as well as port authorities overseeing navigational management.

Using the Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork (EAST) to explore conflict between different road user groups when making right hand turns at urban intersections

Collisions between different types of road users at intersections form a substantial component of the road toll. This paper presents an analysis of driver, cyclist, motorcyclist and pedestrian behaviour at intersections that involved the application of an integrated suite of ergonomics methods, the Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork (EAST) framework, to on-road study data. EAST was used to analyse behaviour at three intersections using data derived from an on-road study of driver, cyclist, motorcyclist and pedestrian behaviour. The analysis shows the differences in behaviour and cognition across the different road user groups and pinpoints instances where this may be creating conflicts between different road users. The role of intersection design in creating these differences in behaviour and resulting conflicts is discussed. It is concluded that currently intersections are not designed in a way that supports behaviour across the four forms of road user studied. Interventions designed to improve intersection safety are discussed.