A model for determining the optimal project life span and concession period of BOT projects

The concession agreement is the core feature of BOT projects, with the concession period being the most essential feature in determining the time span of the various rights, obligations and responsibilities of the government and concessionaire. Concession period design is therefore crucial for financial viability and determining the benefit/cost allocation between the host government and the concessionaire. However, while the concession period and project life span are essentially interdependent, most methods to date consider their determination as contiguous events that are determined exogenously. Moreover, these methods seldom consider the, often uncertain, social benefits and costs involved that are critical in defining, pricing and distributing benefits and costs between the various parties and evaluating potentially distributable cash flows. In this paper, we present the results of the first stage of a research project aimed at determining the optimal build-operate-transfer (BOT) project life span and concession period endogenously and interdependently by maximizing the combined benefits of stakeholders. Based on the estimation of the economic and social development involved, a negotiation space of the concession period interval is obtained, with its lower boundary creating the desired financial return for the private investors and its upper boundary ensuring the economic feasibility of the host government as well as the maximized welfare within the project life. The outcome of the new quantitative model is considered as a suitable basis for future field trials prior to implementation. The structure and details of the model are provided in the paper with Hong Kong tunnel project as a case study to demonstrate its detailed application. The basic contributions of the paper to the theory of construction procurement are that the project life span and concession period are determined jointly and the social benefits taken into account in the examination of project financial benefits. In practical terms, the model goes beyond the current practice of linear-process thinking and should enable engineering consultants to provide project information more rationally and accurately to BOT project bidders and increase the government's prospects of successfully entering into a contract with a concessionaire. This is expected to generate more negotiation space for the government and concessionaire in determining the major socioeconomic features of individual BOT contracts when negotiating the concession period. As a result, the use of the model should increase the total benefit to both parties.

Critical risk factors affecting the implementation of PPP waste-to-energy projects in China

Since 2003, Mainland China has been promoting the public–private partnership (PPP) procurement model in the waste-to-energy incineration sector to reduce the waste burying rate and improve environmental quality. Five critical risk factors (CRFs) that affect the construction and operation of waste-to-energy incineration projects have been identified from real-life risk events of 14 PPP waste-to-energy incineration plants through content analysis. These risk factors are insufficient waste supply, disposal of non-licensed waste, environmental risk, payment risk, and lack of supporting infrastructure. A recently completed PPP waste-to-energy incineration plant, the Shanghai Tianma project, was investigated to learn from the effective management of CRFs. First-hand data about the Shanghai Tianma project was collected, with a focus on project negotiation and concession agreement. Lessons learned about risk management were acquired. This paper presents a detailed study of the contractual structure, risk sharing scheme, risk response measures to CRFs, and project transfer of a PPP project. The study results will provide governments with management implications to prepare equitable concession agreements and benefit private investors by effectively mitigating and managing risks in future PPP waste-to-energy incineration projects.

Contrato típico de concessão comercial : sugestão de inserção de cláusula escalonada de mediação e arbitragem nas convenções de marca para solução de conflitos entre concessionários : um passo adiante nas disputas dos distribuidores

A partir de uma visão contemporânea do contrato o trabalho procurou, (i) reconstruir o marco teórico sobre qual se funda o contrato de concessão comercial no Brasil, registrando uma nota histórica sobre a criação da Lei nº 6.729/1979; (ii) avaliar a validade da lei estudada sob o enfoque do regime constitucional vigente; (iii) analisar o regime jurídico das convenções de marca previstas na lei e a utilização dessas convenções como mecanismos de incentivo de atuação dos concessionários dentro de suas respectivas áreas operacionais, conceituando-as; (iv) sugerir mecanismos de solução de conflitos decorrentes da atuação, pelos concessionários, fora de sua respectiva área operacional, especialmente a cláusula de mediação e arbitragem

Agreement (1 page, handwritten note) stating that William Barker of Oxford paid for the broken lots no. 21 and 22 and in the 3rd concession in the County of Oxford

Agreement (1 page, handwritten note) stating that William Barker of Oxford paid for the broken lots no. 21 and 22 and in the 3rd concession in the County of Oxford of Reverend Harris’ land, Nov. 7, 1831.

On project finance and the first road concession in Portugal

In broad sense, Project Financing1 as a mean of financing large scale infrastructural projects worldwide has had a steady growth in popularity for the last 20 years. This growth has been relatively unscathed from most economic cycles. However in the wake of the 2007 systemic Financial Crisis, Project Financing was also in trouble. The liquidity freeze and credit crunch that ensued affected all parties involved. Traditional Lenders, of this type of financial instrument, locked-in long-term contractual obligations, were severely hit with scarcity of funding compounded by rapidly increasing cost of funding. All the while, Banks were “rescued” by the concerted actions of Central Banks and other Multi-Lateral Agencies around the world but at the same time “stressed” by upcoming regulatory effort (Basel Committee). This impact resulted in specific changes to this type of long-term financing. Changes such as Commercial Banks’ increased risk aversion; pricing increase and maturities decrease of credit facilities; enforcement of Market Disruption Event clauses; partial responsibility for project risk by Multilateral Agencies; and adoption of utility-like availability payments in other industrial sectors such as transportation and even social infrastructure. To the extent possible, this report is then divided in three parts. First, it begins with a more instructional part, touching academic literature (theory) and giving the Banks perspective (practice), but mostly as an overview of Project Finance for awareness’ sake. The renowned Harvard Business School professor – Benjamin Esty, states2 that Project Finance is a “relatively unexplored territory for both empirical and theoretical research” which means that academic research efforts are lagging the practice of Project Finance. Second, the report presents a practical case regarding the first Road Concession in Portugal in 1998 ending with the lessons learned 10 years after Financial Close. Lastly, the report concludes with the analysis of the current trends and changes to the industry post Financial Crisis of the late 2000’s. To achieve this I’ll reference relevant papers, books on the subject, online articles and my own experience in the Project Finance Department at a major Portuguese Investment Bank. Regarding the latter, with the signing of a confidentiality agreement, I’m duly omitting sensitive and proprietary bank information.

Article of agreement between Alexander Cook, contractor of Humberstone and the Provisional Municipal Council of the county of Welland

Article of agreement between Alexander Cook, contractor of Humberstone and the Provisional Municipal Council of the county of Welland to construct and build the main drain through the marsh lands tract commencing in lot no. 27 in the 4th concession in the township of Humberstone in a southerly direction (6 pages, handwritten). This is signed by John Frazer, Provisional Warden, Dexter Deverardo and Alexander Cook. (2 copies), Dec. 30, 1854.

A two-stage win–win multiattribute negotiation model:optimization and then concession

Many automated negotiation models have been developed to solve the conflict in many distributed computational systems. However, the problem of finding win-win outcome in multiattribute negotiation has not been tackled well. To address this issue, based on an evolutionary method of multiobjective optimization, this paper presents a negotiation model that can find win-win solutions of multiple attributes, but needs not to reveal negotiating agents' private utility functions to their opponents or a third-party mediator. Moreover, we also equip our agents with a general type of utility functions of interdependent multiattributes, which captures human intuitions well. In addition, we also develop a novel time-dependent concession strategy model, which can help both sides find a final agreement among a set of win-win ones. Finally, lots of experiments confirm that our negotiation model outperforms the existing models developed recently. And the experiments also show our model is stable and efficient in finding fair win-win outcomes, which is seldom solved in the existing models. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Security of Two-Party Identity-Based Key Agreement

Identity-based cryptography has become extremely fashionable in the last few years. As a consequence many proposals for identity-based key establishment have emerged, the majority in the two party case. We survey the currently proposed protocols of this type, examining their security and efficiency. Problems with some published protocols are noted.

Causes of injuries resulting in hospitalisation in Australia : assessing coder agreement on external causes

Objective: To assess extent of coder agreement for external causes of injury using ICD-10-AM for injury-related hospitalisations in Australian public hospitals. Methods: A random sample of 4850 discharges from 2002 to 2004 was obtained from a stratified random sample of 50 hospitals across four states in Australia. On-site medical record reviews were conducted and external cause codes were assigned blinded to the original coded data. Code agreement levels were grouped into the following agreement categories: block level, 3-character level, 4-character level, 5th-character level, and complete code level. Results: At a broad block level, code agreement was found in over 90% of cases for most mechanisms (eg, transport, fall). Percentage disagreement was 26.0% at the 3-character level; agreement for the complete external cause code was 67.6%. For activity codes, the percentage of disagreement at the 3-character level was 7.3% and agreement for the complete activity code was 68.0%. For place of occurrence codes, the percentage of disagreement at the 4-character level was 22.0%; agreement for the complete place code was 75.4%. Conclusions: With 68% agreement for complete codes and 74% agreement for 3-character codes, as well as variability in agreement levels across different code blocks, place and activity codes, researchers need to be aware of the reliability of their specific data of interest when they wish to undertake trend analyses or case selection for specific causes of interest.

Strongly Secure Certificateless Key Agreement

We introduce a formal model for certificateless authenticated key exchange (CL-AKE) protocols. Contrary to what might be expected, we show that the natural combination of an ID-based AKE protocol with a public key based AKE protocol cannot provide strong security. We provide the first one-round CL-AKE scheme proven secure in the random oracle model. We introduce two variants of the Diffie-Hellman trapdoor the introduced by \cite{DBLP:conf/eurocrypt/CashKS08}. The proposed key agreement scheme is secure as long as each party has at least one uncompromised secret. Thus, our scheme is secure even if the key generation centre learns the ephemeral secrets of both parties.

Risk management in the Lusoponte concession : a case study of the two bridges in Lisbon, Portugal

The case study of Lusoponte illustrates the concession awarded by the Portuguese Government to finance, design, build and operate two bridges over the Tagus in Lisbon, Portugal. It includes an overview of the project's background and an analysis of the main risk categories stating both the actual risks encountered and the mitigation measures adopted. Throughout the project a great attention was given to whole life cycle costs, and gains in efficiency and cost control. Among the lessons that can be learned from both the public and private sector is that a complete risk management analysis must include not only the technical factors but also a realistic assessment of environmental and social risks. These were the risks that were somewhat overseen and that caused the main problems to the project's development.

Certificateless key agreement in the standard model

We show how to construct a certificateless key agreement protocol from the certificateless key encapsulation mechanism introduced by \cite{lippold-ICISC_2009} in ICISC 2009 using the \cite{DBLP:conf/acisp/BoydCNP08} protocol from ACISP 2008. We introduce the Canetti-Krawczyk (CK) model for certificateless cryptography, give security notions for Type I and Type II adversaries in the CK model, and highlight the differences to the existing e$^2$CK model discussed by \cite{DBLP:conf/pairing/LippoldBN09}. The resulting CK model is more relaxed thus giving more power to the adversary than the original CK model.