Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices.

Foraging ecology and parental behaviour in the common tern (Sterna hirundo)

One component of successful parenting is related to efficiency in foraging behaviour. The relationships among chick feeding, the size and type of food package, and length of parental foraging trips has not been well studied in seabirds. In addition, relatively few data have been collected on the activities of seabirds when foraging away from the nest site. The objectives of this study were: (1) to contrast productivity, feeding rate, and attendance patterns of individuals carrying a novel transmitter with a control group of birds; (2) to use radio-telemetry to assess the variability in foraging locations within and between individual male Common Terns; (3) to determine the seasonal variation in chick diet; (4) to determine for each transmittered bird, the relationships among the foraging patterns, parental behaviour, and seasonal reproductive success. The study took place over two years (1990-91) on a concrete breakwater 1 km offshore on Lake Erie near Port Colbome, Ontario. Ten pairs of terns in 1990 and 12 pairs in 1991 were radio-tracked by boat or car during the chick rearing stage. Concurrent behavioural observations documented the time each sex spent foraging or at the nest. The frequency and prey species composition of feeds to chicks were also recorded. The transmitters had negligible effects on the feeding frequency and brood attendance patterns of transmitter carrying birds. Peak nesting transmittered birds in 1990 and 1991 exhibited some inter-individual variability in foraging locations, however intraindividual variability was low. Birds foraged primarily to the west and northwest of the colony. Late nesters exhibited greater inter-individual variability, however intra-individual variability remained low for most birds. Neither group demonstrated sufficient variability to support the regular use of this colony as an "information centre". Individual transmittered birds had unique and predictable foraging patterns, and corresponding differences in feeding frequencies and brood attendance patterns, yet productivity was essentially equal between nests due to the impact and importance of stochastic events. Individuals that were recaptured in 1991 exhibited very similar foraging patterns to 1990, suggesting littie variability between years. Conservation of foraging patterns between years may have potential implications for mate choice decisions in future breeding seasons. Prey species delivered to chicks differed between morning and evening for peak and late nesters in 1990, but not 1991. Peak nesters in 1990 fed significantiy more Rainbow Smelt fOsmerus mordM) than Emerald Shiner (Notropis atherinoidesV this trend was reversed for late nesters who also fed large numbers of unidentified larval fish. No significant differences were found in 1991. Seasonal changes in prey species delivered to chicks is believed to be attributable to the temperature tolerances of the smelt and shiners, and the presence of large schools of larval fish during the late nesting season.

Trends in fish prey capture by common terns following zebra mussel invasion : do terns track fish species abundance? /

The Common Tern (Sterna hirundo) is a ground nesting colonial seabird. Terns rely primarily on small prey fishes which they obtain through plunge diving for their survival as well as the survival of their offspring during the breeding season. The zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) is a small bivalve mollusk that invaded North American waters in the late 1980's. Through its suspension feeding, the zebra mussel has the ability to alter the entire aquatic ecosystem, ultimately leading to a reduction in pelagic organisms including small prey fish. The objective of the study was to determine what (if any) indirect effects the invasion of the zebra mussel has had on fish prey captured by terns. The study took place in two separate two-year periods, 1990-91 and 1995-96 on a concrete breakwall off the north shore of Lake Erie near Port Colborne, Ontario. Daily nest checks revealed clutch initiation dates, egg-laying chronology, hatching success and morphological egg characteristics (length and breadth). Behavioural observations included time each sex spent in attendance with its brood, the frequency of feeding chicks and the prey species composition and size fed to chicks as well as to females (courtship feeding). Egg sizes did not differ between study periods, nor did feeding rates to chicks, suggesting that food was not a limiting resource. Terns spent less time with their broods (more time foraging) in the 1995-96 period. However, they also had significantly larger broods and fledged more offspring. The time of each individual foraging trip decreased, suggesting that fish were easier to obtain in 1995 and 1996. Lastly, kleptoparasitism rates decreased, suggesting that the costs of foraging (time, energy) actually decreased as fewer birds adopted this strategy to compensate for what I assumed to be a lack of available food (fish). The only significant difference between the periods of 1990, 1991 and 1995, 1996 was a change in diet. Terns delivered significantly fewer rainbow smelt and more emerald shiner in 1995 and 1996. However, the average size of fish delivered did not change. Thus, there was little impact on prey captured by Common Terns in Lake Erie since the invasion of the zebra mussel.

Parental care in the common tern (Sterna Nirundo): sexual roles in a monogamous seabird

The parental behaviour of male and female Common Terns (Sterna hirundo) was documented throughout two breeding seasons at a colony near Port Colborne , Ontario. Thirteen and fourteen pairs of terns were chosen for intensive study in 1982 and 1983, respectively. The delivery of fish by males to their mates ("courtship feeding") occurred prior-to, during, and following the egg-laying period. Following the laying of the second egg, courtship feeding rates declined significantly. There was a significant, positive correlation bebween courtship feeding rates and subsequent chick feeding rates by males. The incubation rates of females were significantly higher than those of males, especially during the first ten days of incubation. Territorial attendance rates during the incubation stage were similar for males and females. During the chick stage, territorial attendance rates of females were significantly higher than those of males. The size of fish fed to chicks by males increased as the chicks grew older and chick feeding rates of males were approximately three times higher than female rates. Based on these quantitative differences in parental care activities, the cumulative parental time investment by the two sexes was very similar. However, the energetic investment by males was likely greater than that by females, since male parental contributions (e.g. courtship feeding and chick feeding) often entailed extensive foraging behaviour.

Selected aspects of common tern reproductive biology

Several factors influencing reproductive success were investigated at a Common Tern colony at Port Colborne, Ontario in 1976. In general three egg clutches hatched better than two egg clutches and early started clutches hatched eggs and fledged chicks better than late clutches; the fledging success of two and three egg clutches was similar. Early clutches took longer to hatch and hatched more synchronously than did late clutches. While hatching success differed with nesting substrate used fledging success' did not* No relationship was found between either incubation attentiveness and reproductive success or between incubation attentiveness and clutch size* At no time did food availability appear to be a factor limiting the successful upbringing of two chick broods. While fCf chicks (i.e. chicks hatching from the last laid eggs of three egg clutches) generally survived and grew poorly relative to their brood mates they grew best when they originated from clutches that hatched relatively asynchronously.

Thermoaclimatory variations in the microenvironment of hemoglobin in the rainbow trout, Salmo gairdneri and the carp, Cyprinus carpio

Several inorganic substances (e.g., C£ , Mg , Ca , H ) are potent negative modulators of hemoglobin-oxygen affinity. To evaluate the possibility that potentially adaptive changes in the red cell ionic environment of hemoglobin may take place during acclimation of fishes to increased environmental temperature, hematological status (hemoglobin, hematocrit, red cell numbers, mean erythrocytic volume and hemoglobin content), plasma + + 2+ 2+ and packed red cell electrolyte levels (Na , K , Ca , Mg , C£ ) were evaluated in summer and winter populations of the stenothermal rainbow trout, Salmo gairdneri, following acclimation to 2°, 10°, 18°C, and in a spring population of eurythermal carp, Cyprinus carpio, held at 2°, 16° and 30°C. From these data cell ion concentrations and ion:hemoglobin ratios were estimated. In view of the role of red cell carbonic anhydrase in the reductions of blood C02 tensions and the recruitment of Na and C£~ lost by fishes, a preliminary investigation of thermoacclimatory changes in the activity of this system in rainbow trout erythrocytes was conducted. Few changes in hematological status were encountered following acclimation. There was, however, some evidence of weight-specific differential hematological response in carp. This lead to markedly greater increases in hemoglobin, hematocrit and red cell numbers in smaller rather than in larger specimens at higher temperatures; variations which were 2+ well correlated with changes in plasma Ca . Plasma composition in summer trout was not altered by acclimation. In winter trout plasma Na and K increased at higher temperatures. Carp were characterized by increases in plasma calcium, and reductions in sodium and magnesium under these conditions. Several significant seasonal differences in plasma ion levels were observed in the trout. (n) In trout, only erythrocytic K and K :Hb were altered by acclimation, rising at higher temperatures. In carp Na , Na :Hb, C£~ and C£~:Hb in- 2+ 2+ creased with temperature, while Mg and Mg :Hb declined. Changes in overall ionic composition in carp red cells were consistent with increases in H content. In both species significant reciprocal variations in C£~ 2+ - + and Mg were found. In mammalian systems increases in C£ and H reduce hemoglobin-oxygen affinity by interaction with hemoglobin. Reduction in 2+ 2+ Mg maximizes organophosphate modulator availability by decreasing ATP»Mg complex formation. Thus, the changes observed may be of adaptive value in reducing hemoglobin-oxygen affinity, and facilitating oxygen release to cells at higher temperatures. Trout appear to maintain a high chloridelow magnesium state over the entire thermal tolerance zone. Carp, however, achieved this state only at higher temperatures. In both species mean erythrocytic volume was decreased at higher temperatures and this may facilitate branchial oxygen loading. Since mean erythrocytic volume was inversely related to red cell ion content, it is hypothesized that reductions in cell volume are achieved by export of some unidentified solute or solutes. Variations in the carbonic anhydrase activity that could be attributed to the thermoacclimatory process were quite modest. On the other hand, assays performed at the temperature of acclimation showed a large temperature effect where under in vivo conditions of temperature fish acclimated to higher temperatures might be expected to have higher activities. Furthermore, since hematocrit increased with temperature in these fish, while carbonic anhydrase is present only in the erythrocyte, the whole blood levels of this enzyme are expected to increase and further augment the temperature effect. This, in turn, could aid in the reduction of C02 (111) tension and increase the production of H and HC0~~ used in the active uptake of Na and C£ at higher temperatures.

A study of selected factors influencing the reproductive performance of the common tern (Sterna hirundo) at Port Colborne, Ontario in 1973 and 1974

Several study areas were investigated at two Port Colborne terneries during the summers of 1973 and 1974 in an attempt to determine the influence of clutch size, time of clutch initiation, position in the colony, proximity to Ring-billed Gulls, vegetation and nesting substrate on the reproductive performance of the Common Tern. Hatching success and reproductive success (the number of chicks fledged per egg laid) were generally higher for 3-egg than 2-egg clutches but fledging (the number of chicks fledged per egg hatched) success was usually independant of clutch size. Hatching, fledging and reproductive success declined as a function of time of clutch initiation. Mean clutch sizes also generally declined as a function of time. Nests located in the center of the colony exhibited higher fledging success than those on the periphery. Rock-based clutches had a lower hatching success than clutches initiated on sand or dried vegetation. Reproductive performance did not appear to be related to proximity to Ring-billed Gulls or vegetation within the study area.

Foraging ecology and parental care of common terns (Sterna hirundo) nesting in Windermere Basin, Lake Ontario

The relationships among chick feeding, size and type of prey item, and foraging time away from the brood have not been well studied in seabirds. This study investigated spatial and temporal patterns of foraging and chick-provisioning among 23 radio-tagged male common terns nesting at Hamilton Harbour, Lake Ontario during 1991 and 1992. Telemetry data were collected concurrently with behavioural observations from an elevated blind. Terns fitted with transmitters did not differ from controls with respect to either brood attendance, patterns of chick mortality, species and size distributions of prey delivered to offspring, or chick-provisioning rates. There was a clear separation of parental roles: males were primarily responsible for feeding chicks while females allocated more time to brood attendance. The prey species most commonly delivered to chicks by adults were rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) and alewife (A/osa pseudoharengus), followed in importance by larval fish, emerald shiner (Notropis antherinoides), salmonids, and fathead minnows (Pimepha/es prome/as). The relative proportions of various fish speCies delivered to chicks by males differed over the course of each breeding season, and there was also much variability in species composition of prey between years. Sizes of prey delivered to chicks also differed between sampling periods. The modal size of fish brought to chicks during Peak 1991 was 1.5 bill lengths, while the majority of prey in Late 1991 were small larval fish. The reverse trend occurred in 1992 when small fish were delivered to chicks predominantly during the Peak nesting period. During periods when predominantly small fish were delivered to chicks, the foraging activity of radio-tagged males was concentrated within a two kilometer radius of the colony. The observed variation in prey composition and foraging locations during the study likely reflects temporal variation in the availability of prey in the vicinity of the colony. Males delivered fish to chicks at a constant rate, while females 4 increased their feeding frequency over the first six to ten brood days. The mean length of fish delivered to chicks by adults increased significantly with increasing chick age. As a group, within each nesting period, transmittered males either foraged predominantly in the same directional bearing (north during Peak 1991, south during Late 1992), or concentrated foraging activity in the immediate vicinity of the colony (Late 1991, Peak 1992). However, individual radio-tagged males exhibited unique and predictable foraging patterns, often favouring specific locations within these areas and differing in their secondary foraging patterns. Overall, the Lake Ontario shoreline between NCB Bay" (3.5 km south of colony) and the lift bridge canal (4 km north of colony) was the foraging area used most frequently by radiotagged males during the chick-rearing period. Foraging patterns of transmittered males at Windermere Basin are similar to patterns of peak-nesting common terns, but differ from those of late-nesters, at a nearby colony (Port Colborne, Lake Erie). Differences between the foraging patterns of late-nesting terns at these colonies likely reflect differences in annual patterns of fish availability between the two locations. No relationship was found between foraging proficiency of adults and survival of offspring. Stochastic factors, such as predation by black-crowned nightherons (Nycticorax nycticorax) and adverse weather conditions during the early stages of chick rearing, may be more important determinants of common tern breeding success than parental quality or fish availability.

The Social Enterprise as an Alternative Work Option for Persons with Developmental Disabilities: A Case Study of Staff Perspectives at Common Ground Co-operative

Traditional employment options for persons with developmental disabilities are lacking. Employment options available for persons with developmental disabilities are reflective of the medical and social model perspectives of disability; with segregated and supported employment reinforcing the idea that persons with developmental disabilities are incapable and competitive employment missing the necessary accommodations for persons to be successful. This study examined social enterprises as an alternative employment option that can balance both medical and social model perspectives by accommodating for weaknesses or limitations and recognizing the strengths and capabilities of persons with developmental disabilities in the workplace. Moreover, this study is part of a broader case study which is examining the nature and impacts of a social enterprise, known as Common Ground Co-operative (CGC), which supports five social purpose businesses that are owned and operated by persons with developmental disabilities. This study is part of the Social Business and Marginalized Social Groups Community-University Research Alliance. To date, a case study has been written describing the nature and impacts of CGC and its related businesses from the perspectives of the Partners, board members, funders and staff (Owen, Readhead, Bishop, Hope & Campbell, in press & Readhead, 2012). The current study used a descriptive case study approach to provide a detailed account of the perceptions and opinions of CGC staff members who support each of the Partners in the five related businesses. Staff members were chosen for the focus of this study because of the integral role that they play in the successful outcomes of the persons they support. This study was conducted in two phases. In the first phase five staff members were interviewed. During this stage of interviews, several themes were presented which needed to be examined in further detail, specifically staff stress and burnout and duty of care for business Partners versus the promotion of their autonomy. A second phase of interviews was then conducted with one individual participant and a focus group of seven. During both interview phases, Staff participants described an employment model that creates a non-judgemental environment for the business Partners that promotes their strengths, accommodates for their limitations, provides educational opportunities and places the responsibility for the businesses on the persons with developmental disabilities cultivating equality and promoting independence. Staff described the nature of their role including risk factors for stress, the protective factors that buffer stress, and the challenges associated with balancing many role demands. Issues related to the replication of this social enterprise model are described.

The Book of Common Prayer Canada

The book of Common Prayer Canada is bound in soft leather. This book contains 2 book plates from St. George's Church, St. Catharines. The first one says that Margaret Julia Band was confirmed April 17, 1935 and had her first communion April 21, 1935. The second one says that Percy Caruthers Band was confirmed April 8, 1936 and received first communion April 12, 1936. There is also an inscription which reads "To Margaret from her mother, April the 21st, 1935, St. Catharines. The full text is available in the Brock University Special Collections and Archives.

Familiar Science of The Scientific Explanation of Common Things

There is a signature on this book that reads "Julia Cleveland 22 East-8 Street, Erie Penna."