On the predictive content of leading indicators: the case of U.S. real estate markets

This paper employs a probit and a Markov switching model using information from the Conference Board Leading Indicator and other predictor variables to forecast the signs of future rental growth in four key U.S. commercial rent series. We find that both approaches have considerable power to predict changes in the direction of commercial rents up to two years ahead, exhibiting strong improvements over a naïve model, especially for the warehouse and apartment sectors. We find that while the Markov switching model appears to be more successful, it lags behind actual turnarounds in market outcomes whereas the probit is able to detect whether rental growth will be positive or negative several quarters ahead.

Lease maturity and initial rent: is there a term structure for UK commercial property leases?

This paper investigates the relationship between lease maturity and rent in commercial property. Over the last decade market-led changes to lease structures, the threat of government intervention and the associated emergence of the Codes of Practice for commercial leases have stimulated growing interest in pricing of commercial property leases. Seminal work by Grenadier (1995) derived a set of hypotheses about the pricing of different lease lengths in different market conditions. Whilst there is a compelling theoretical case for and a strong intuitive expectation of differential pricing of different lease maturities, to date the empirical evidence is inconclusive. Two Swedish studies have found mixed results (Gunnelin and Soderbergh 2003 and Englund et al 2003). In only half the cases is the null hypothesis that lease length has no effect rejected. In the UK, Crosby et al (2003) report counterintuitive results. In some markets, they find that short lease terms are associated with low rents, whilst in others they are associated with high rents. Drawing upon a substantial database of commercial lettings in central London (West End and City of London) over the last decade, we investigate the relationship between rent and lease maturity. In particular, we test whether a building quality variable omitted in previous studies provides empirical results that are more consistent with the theoretical and intuitive a priori expectations. It is found that initial leases rates are upward sloping with the lease term and that this relationship is constant over time.

The production and consumption of commercial real estate market forecasts

Whilst the vast majority of the research on property market forecasting has concentrated on statistical methods of forecasting future rents, this report investigates the process of property market forecast production with particular reference to the level and effect of judgemental intervention in this process. Expectations of future investment performance at the levels of individual asset, sector, region, country and asset class are crucial to stock selection and tactical and strategic asset allocation decisions. Given their centrality to investment performance, we focus on the process by which forecasts of rents and yields are generated and expectations formed. A review of the wider literature on forecasting suggests that there are strong grounds to expect that forecast outcomes are not the result of purely mechanical calculations.

The impact of energy performance certificates on the rental and capital values of commercial property assets: some preliminary evidence from the UK

This paper focuses on the effect of energy performance ratings on the capital values, rental values and equivalent yields of UK commercial property assets. Of which a small number are also BREEAM rated, the study is based upon 708 commercial property assets held in the IPD UK Universe drawn from across all PAS segments. Incorporating a range of controls such as unexpired lease term, vacancy rate and tenant credit risk, hedonic regression procedures are used to estimate the effect of EPC rating. The study finds no evidence of a strong relationship between environmental and/or energy performance and rental and capital value. Bearing in mind the small number of BREEAM rated assets, there was a small but statistically significant effect on equivalent yield only. Similarly, there was no evidence that the EPC rating had any effect on Market Rent or Market Value with only minor effects of EPC ratings on equivalent yields. The preliminary conclusion is that energy labelling is not yet having the effects on Market Values and Market Rents that provide incentives for market participants to improve the energy efficiency of their commercial real estate assets.

Eco-labeling, rents, sales prices and occupancy rates: do LEED and Energy Star labeled offices obtain multiple premiums?

Drawing upon an updated and expanded dataset of Energy Star and LEED labeled commercial offices, this paper investigates the effect of eco-labeling on rental rates, sale prices and occupancy rates. Using OLS and robust regression procedures, hedonic modeling is used to test whether the presence of an eco-label has a significant positive effect on rental rates, sale prices and occupancy rates. The study suggests that estimated coefficients can be sensitive to outlier treatment. For sale prices and occupancy rates, there are notable differences between estimated coefficients for OLS and robust regressions. The results suggest that both Energy Star and LEED offices obtain rental premiums of approximately 3%. A 17% sale price premium is estimated for Energy Star labeled offices but no significant sale price premium is estimated for LEED labeled offices. Surprisingly, no significant occupancy premium is estimated for Energy Star labeled offices and a negative occupancy premium is estimated for LEED labeled offices.

Green noise or green value? Measuring the price effects of environmental certification in commercial buildings

This paper investigates the price effects of environmental certification on commercial real estate assets. It is argued that there are likely to be three main drivers of price differences between certified and non-certified buildings. First, certified buildings offer a bundle of benefits to occupiers relating to business productivity, image and occupancy costs. Second, due to these occupier benefits, certified buildings can result in higher rents and lower holding costs for investors. Third, certified buildings may require a lower risk premium. Drawing upon the CoStar database of US commercial real estate assets, hedonic regression analysis is used to measure the effect of certification on both rent and price. We first estimate the rental regression for a sample of 110 LEED and 433 Energy Star as well as several thousand benchmark buildings to compare the sample to. The results suggest that, compared to buildings in the same metropolitan region, certified buildings have a rental premium and that the more highly rated that buildings are in terms of their environmental impact, the greater the rental premium. Furthermore, based on a sample of transaction prices for 292 Energy Star and 30 LEED-certified buildings, we find price premia of 10% and 31% respectively compared to non-certified buildings in the same metropolitan area

Long run relationships between City office rents and the economy in the UK: creating a database for research

This paper sets out progress during the first eighteen months of doctoral research into the City of London office market. The overall aim of the research is to explore relationships between office rents and the economy in the UK over the last 150 years. To do this, a database of lettings has been created from which a long run index of City office rents can be constructed. With this index, it should then be possible to analyse trends in rents and relationships with their long run determinants. The focus of this paper is on the creation of the rent database. First, it considers the existing secondary sources of long run rental data for the UK. This highlights a lack of information for years prior to 1970 and the need for primary data collection if earlier periods are to be studied. The paper then discusses the selection of the City of London and of the time period chosen for research. After this, it describes how a dataset covering the period 1860-1960 has been assembled using the records of property companies active in the City office market. It is hoped that, if successful, this research will contribute to existing knowledge on the long run characteristics of commercial real estate. In particular, it should add a price dimension (rents) to the existing long run information on stock/supply and investment. Hence, it should enable a more complete picture of the development and performance of commercial real estate through time to be gained.

The dynamics and measurement of commercial property depreciation in the UK

Beginning with an extensive literature review, this new research summary report analyses the process of rental depreciation, its effect on the performance of rents, and the impacts of capital expenditure on depreciation. It is based on an analysis of more than 700 commercial and industrial properties and newer property types and it is the most comprehensive national study of rental depreciation since the 1986 CALUS report. The report will be of interest to valuers, fund managers, institutional investors and their advisors and researchers.

Case Study: Commercial Gentrification in the Pike/Pine Corridor

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

High-throughput Analysis By Sp-ldi-ms For Fast Identification Of Adulterations In Commercial Balsamic Vinegars.

Balsamic vinegar (BV) is a typical and valuable Italian product, worldwide appreciated thanks to its characteristic flavors and potential health benefits. Several studies have been conducted to assess physicochemical and microbial compositions of BV, as well as its beneficial properties. Due to highly-disseminated claims of antioxidant, antihypertensive and antiglycemic properties, BV is a known target for frauds and adulterations. For that matter, product authentication, certifying its origin (region or country) and thus the processing conditions, is becoming a growing concern. Striving for fraud reduction as well as quality and safety assurance, reliable analytical strategies to rapidly evaluate BV quality are very interesting, also from an economical point of view. This work employs silica plate laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry (SP-LDI-MS) for fast chemical profiling of commercial BV samples with protected geographical indication (PGI) and identification of its adulterated samples with low-priced vinegars, namely apple, alcohol and red/white wines.

New Microsatellite Markers For Wild And Commercial Species Of Passiflora (passifloraceae) And Cross-amplification.

• We developed the first microsatellites for Passiflora setacea and characterized new sets of markers for P. edulis and P. cincinnata, enabling further genetic diversity studies to support the conservation and breeding of passion fruit species. • We developed 69 microsatellite markers and, in conjunction with assessments of cross-amplification using primers available from the literature, present 43 new polymorphic microsatellite loci for three species of Passiflora. The mean number of alleles per locus was 3.1, and the mean values of the expected and observed levels of heterozygosity were 0.406 and 0.322, respectively. • These microsatellite markers will be valuable tools for investigating the genetic diversity and population structure of wild and commercial species of passion fruit (Passiflora spp.) and may be useful for developing conservation and improvement strategies by contributing to the understanding of the mating system and hybridization within the genus.

Molecular Genetic Variability Of Commercial And Wild Accessions Of Passion Fruit (passiflora Spp.) Targeting Ex Situ Conservation And Breeding.

Passiflora species are distributed throughout Latin America, and Brazil and Colombia serve as the centers of diversity for this genus. We performed cross-species amplification to evaluate 109 microsatellite loci in 14 Passiflora species and estimated the diversity and genetic structure of Passiflora cincinnata, Passiflora setaceae and Passiflora edulis. A total of 127 accessions, including 85 accessions of P. edulis, a commercial species, and 42 accessions of 13 wild species, were examined. The cross-species amplification was effective for obtaining microsatellite loci (average cross-amplification of 70%). The average number of alleles per locus (five) was relatively low, and the average diversity ranged from 0.52 in P. cincinnata to 0.32 in P. setacea. The Bayesian analyses indicated that the P. cincinnata and P. setacea accessions were distributed into two groups, and the P. edulis accessions were distributed into five groups. Private alleles were identified, and suggestions for core collections are presented. Further collections are necessary, and the information generated may be useful for breeding and conservation.

Determination Of Tetrakis(hydroxymethyl)phosphonium Sulfate In Commercial Formulations And Cooling Water By Capillary Electrophoresis With Contactless Conductivity Detection.

A novel capillary electrophoresis method using capacitively coupled contactless conductivity detection is proposed for the determination of the biocide tetrakis(hydroxymethyl)phosphonium sulfate. The feasibility of the electrophoretic separation of this biocide was attributed to the formation of an anionic complex between the biocide and borate ions in the background electrolyte. Evidence of this complex formation was provided by (11) B NMR spectroscopy. A linear relationship (R(2) = 0.9990) between the peak area of the complex and the biocide concentration (50-900 μmol/L) was found. The limit of detection and limit of quantification were 15.0 and 50.1 μmol/L, respectively. The proposed method was applied to the determination of tetrakis(hydroxymethyl)phosphonium sulfate in commercial formulations, and the results were in good agreement with those obtained by the standard iodometric titration method. The method was also evaluated for the analysis of tap water and cooling water samples treated with the biocide. The results of the recovery tests at three concentration levels (300, 400, and 600 μmol/L) varied from 75 to 99%, with a relative standard deviation no higher than 9%.

In Vitro Evaluation Of Sun Protection Factor And Stability Of Commercial Sunscreens Using Mass Spectrometry.

Sunlight exposure causes several types of injury to humans, especially on the skin; among the most common harmful effects due to ultraviolet (UV) exposure are erythema, pigmentation and lesions in DNA, which may lead to cancer. These long-term effects are minimized with the use of sunscreens, a class of cosmetic products that contains UV filters as the main component in the formulation; such molecules can absorb, reflect or diffuse UV rays, and can be used alone or as a combination to broaden the protection on different wavelengths. Currently, worldwide regulatory agencies define which ingredients and what quantities must be used in each country, and enforce companies to conduct tests that confirm the Sun Protection Factor (SPF) and the UVA (Ultraviolet A) factor. Standard SPF determination tests are currently conducted in vivo, using human subjects. In an industrial mindset, apart from economic and ethical reasons, the introduction of an in vitro method emerges as an interesting alternative by reducing risks associated to UV exposure on tests, as well as providing assertive analytical results. The present work aims to describe a novel methodology for SPF determination directly from sunscreen formulations using the previously described cosmetomics platform and mass spectrometry as the analytical methods of choice.

Microhardness assessment of different commercial brands of resin composites with different degrees of translucence

Owing to improvements in its mechanical properties and to the availability of shade and translucence resources, resin composite has become one of the most widely used restorative materials in present day Dentistry. The aim of this study was to assess the relation between the surface hardness of seven different commercial brands of resin composites (Charisma, Fill Magic, Master Fill, Natural Look, Opallis, Tetric Ceram, and Z250) and the different degrees of translucence (translucid, enamel and dentin). Vickers microhardness testing revealed significant differences among the groups. Z250 was the commercial brand that showed the best performance in the hardness test. When comparing the three groups assessed within the same brand, only Master Fill and Fill Magic presented statistically significant differences among all of the different translucencies. Natural Look was the only one that showed no significant difference among any of the three groups. Charisma, Opallis, Tetric Ceram and Z250 showed significant differences among some of the tested groups. Based on the results found in this study, it was not possible to establish a relation between translucence and the microhardness of the resin composites assessed. Depending on the material assessed, however, translucence variation did affect the microhardness values of the resin composites.