Analysis of ten years historical weather data in Australia

Typical reference year (TRY) weather data is often used to represent the long term weather pattern for building simulation and design. Through the analysis of ten year historical hourly weather data for seven Australian major capital cities using the frequencies procedure of descriptive statistics analysis (by SPSS software), this paper investigates: • the closeness of the typical reference year (TRY) weather data in representing the long term weather pattern; • the variations and common features that may exist between relatively hot and cold years. It is found that for the given set of input data, in comparison with the other weather elements, the discrepancy between TRY and multiple years is much smaller for the dry bulb temperature, relative humidity and global solar irradiance. The overall distribution patterns of key weather elements are also generally similar between the hot and cold years, but with some shift and/or small distortion. There is little common tendency of change between the hot and the cold years for different weather variables at different study locations.

Effect of environmental conditions on the distribution of Pacific mackerel (Scomber japonicus) larvae in the California Current system

We modeled the probability of capturing Pacif ic mackerel (Scomber japonicus) larvae as a function of environmental variables for the Southern California Bight (SCB) most years from 1951 through 2008 and Mexican waters offshore of Baja California from 1951 through 1984. The model exhibited acceptable fit, as indicated by the area under a receiver-operating-characteristic curve of 0.80 but was inconsistent with the zero catches that occurred frequently in the 2000s. Two types of spawners overlapped spatially within the survey area: those that exhibited peak spawning during April in the SCB at about 15.5°C and a smaller group that exhibited peak spawning in August near Punta Eugenia, Mexico, at 20°C or greater. The SCB generally had greater zooplankton than Mexican waters but less appropriate (lower) geostrophic f lows. Mexican waters generally exhibited greater predicted habitat quality than the SCB in cold years. Predicted quality of the habitat in the SCB was greater from the 1980s to 2008 than in the earlier years of the survey primarily because temperatures and geostrophic flows were more appropriate for larvae. However, stock size the previous year had a larger effect on predictions than any environmental variable, indicating that larval Pacific mackerel did not fully occupy the suitable habitat during most years.

Questioning the role of phenology shifts and trophic mismatching in a planktonic food web

In a warming climate, differential shifts in the seasonal timing of predators and prey have been suggested to lead to trophic ‘‘mismatches’’ that decouple primary, secondary and tertiary production. We tested this hypothesis using a 25-year time-series of weekly sampling at the Plymouth L4 site, comparing 57 plankton taxa spanning 4 trophic levels. During warm years, there was a weak tendency for earlier timings of spring taxa and later timings of autumn taxa. While this is in line with many previous findings, numerous exceptions existed and only a few taxa (e.g. Gyrodinium spp., Pseudocalanus elongatus, and Acartia clausi) showed consistent, strong evidence for temperature-related timing shifts, revealed by all 4 of the timing indices that we used. Also, the calculated offsets in timing i.e. ‘‘mismatches’’) between predator and prey were no greater in extreme warm or cold years than during more average years. Further, the magnitude of these offsets had no effect on the ‘‘success’’ of the predator, in terms of their annual mean abundance or egg production rates. Instead numerous other factors override, including: inter-annual variability in food quantity, high food baseline levels, turnover rates and prolonged seasonal availability, allowing extended periods of production. Furthermore many taxa, notably meroplankton, increased well before the spring bloom. While theoretically a chronic mismatch, this likely reflects trade-offs for example in predation avoidance. Various gelatinous taxa (Phaeocystis, Noctiluca, ctenophores, appendicularians, medusae) may have reduced these predation constraints, with variable, explosive population outbursts likely responding to improved conditions. The match–mismatch hypothesis may apply for highly seasonal, pulsed systems or specialist feeders, but we suggest that the concept is being over-extended to other marine systems where multiple factors compensate.

Controls on inorganic nitrogen leaching from Finnish catchments assessed using a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the INCA-N model

The semi-distributed, dynamic INCA-N model was used to simulate the behaviour of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) in two Finnish research catchments. Parameter sensitivity and model structural uncertainty were analysed using generalized sensitivity analysis. The Mustajoki catchment is a forested upstream catchment, while the Savijoki catchment represents intensively cultivated lowlands. In general, there were more influential parameters in Savijoki than Mustajoki. Model results were sensitive to N-transformation rates, vegetation dynamics, and soil and river hydrology. Values of the sensitive parameters were based on long-term measurements covering both warm and cold years. The highest measured DIN concentrations fell between minimum and maximum values estimated during the uncertainty analysis. The lowest measured concentrations fell outside these bounds, suggesting that some retention processes may be missing from the current model structure. The lowest concentrations occurred mainly during low flow periods; so effects on total loads were small.

Water temperature measured in Independence Bay, Pisco, Peru

Independencia Bay can be considered as one of the most productive invertebratc fishing grounds worldwide. One of the most important exploited species is the scallop (Argopecten purpuratus) with strong catching fluctuations related to El Nino and La Nina events and to inadequate Management strategies. During strong warming periods annual landings reach up to 50000 t in an area of about 150 km**2 and during cold years they remain around 500 to 1000 t. This study analyses the changes in scallop landings at Independencia Bay observed during the last two decades and discusses the main factors affecting the scallop proliferations during the EI Nino events. In this way data on landings, sea surface temperature and those related to growth, reproduction, predation, mean density and oxygen concentration from published and unpublished Papers are used. The relationship between annual catches and average water temperature over the preceding reproductive period of the scallop over the past 20 year's period, showed that scallop production is affected positively only with strong EI Nino such as those of 1983 and 1998. Our review showed that the scallop stock proliferation can be traced to the combined effect of (1) an increase in reproductive output through an acceleration of gonad maturation and a higher spawning frequency; (2) a shortening of the larval period and an increase in larval survival; (3) an increase in the individual growth performance; (4) an increase in the juvenile and adult survival through reduction of predator biomass; (5) an increase in carrying capacity of the scallop banks due to elevated oxygen levels.

Vegetation cover and radiocarbon dates of palsa and peat plateaus in the Hudson Bay Lowlands

The Holocene development of a treed palsa bog and a peat plateau bog, located near the railroad to Churchill in the Hudson Bay Lowlands of northeastern Manitoba, was traced using peat macrofossil and radiocarbon analyses. Both sites first developed as wet rich fens through paludification of forested uplands around 6800 cal. yr BP. Results show a 20th-century age for the palsa formation and repeated periods of permafrost aggradation and collapse at the peat plateau site during the late Holocene. This timing of permafrost dynamics corroborates well with that inferred from previous studies on other permafrost peatlands in the same region. The developmental history of the palsa and peat plateau bogs is similar to that of adjacent permafrost-free fens, except for the specific frost heave and collapse features associated with permafrost dynamics. Permafrost aggradation and degradation is ascribed to regional climatic, local autogenic and other factors. Particularly the very recent palsa development can be assessed in terms of climatic changes as inferred from meteorological data and surface hydrological changes related to construction of the railroad. The results indicate that cold years with limited snowfall as well as altered drainage patterns associated with infrastructure development may have contributed to the recent palsa formation.

Tendència poblacional de la garsa (Pica pica) per al període 1994-2009 a la desembocadura del riu Millars (Castelló)

Aquesta nota mostra la tendència poblacional de la garsa (Pica pica) al llarg del kilòmetre 1 (des de la línea de costa, riu amunt) del paisatge protegit de la Desembocadura del riu Millars (Castelló), per al període comprés de 1994-2009 (16 anys). Els resultats se centren en censos realitzats a la zona mitjançant el mètode del transecte lineal duts a terme 3 o 4 vegades al mes. L’espècie se censa per primera vegada l’any 1997 i des l’aleshores mostra una tendència a l’alça sobretot a partir de 2003 i molt especialment en els dos últims (2008-2009). S’ha estabilitzat una abundància mitjana de 8,3 aus/km. Pel que fa a les correlacions amb la meteorologia, en els anys més freds presenta menor abundància que en els càlids. Els hiverns càlids podrien permetre major supervivència i, a més, major disponibilitat de recursos amb els quals assegurar un bon nombre de polls. L’espècie troba en la zona suficients recursos tròfics per sobreviure i un lloc excel·lent on lliurar-se de la pressió cinegètica.

Sediment color variation in laminated Holocene sediments of ODP Site 178-1098

Continuous sediment color records with a resolution of one measurement per millimeter were generated for Site 1098 (Palmer Deep, Antarctic Peninsula) from digital images of the core surfaces to test if the laminated intervals at this site will allow for analysis of high-frequency climate variability in the Circum-Antarctic. Long-term variation in color values correlates with gamma-ray attenuation bulk density. Darker colors are found in laminated intervals with lower bulk density, high biogenic silica, and high total organic carbon content. Darker color values result from the addition of dark laminae to background sediments that show little variation in color. The thicknesses of dark and light laminae were measured in the top 25 meters composite depth to determine the temporal resolution of the laminae. The alternation between dark, biogenic-rich laminae and background sediment essentially represents an annual cycle, but the sediment is not consistently varved. The modal thickness of light laminae is close to the long-term average annual accumulation rate, and results indicate that approximately half of the dark/light couplets in distinctly laminated intervals represent a single year. Missing biogenic laminae are interpreted to represent reduced primary productivity during cold years with delayed breakup of the sea-ice cover.

Social politics in a transoceanic world in the early Cold War years

This article argues that those termed 'liberals' in the United States had the opportunity in the late 1940's to use overseas case studies to reshape the ramshackle political agenda of the New Deal along more specifically social democratic lines, but hat they found it impossible to match interest in the wider world with a concrete programme to overcome tension between left-wing politics and the emerging anti-totalitarianism of the Cold War. The American right, by contrast, conducted a highly organised publicity drive to provide new meaning for their anti-statist ideology in a post-New Deal, post-isolationist United States by using perceived failures of welfare states overseas as domestic propaganda. The examples of Labour Britain after 1945 and Labour New Zealand both provided important case studies for American liberals and conservatives, but in the Cold War it was the American right who would benefit most from an ideologically driven repackaging of overseas social policy for an American audience.

The Cold War in retrospect : 25 years after its end

This special issue of Cold War History offers a retrospective on the end of the Cold War, 25 years after its peaceful conclusion. This peaceful conclusion is an achievement that cannot be celebrated enough, and we must continue to build international relations in conflict and co-operation on this awareness of our common humanity and our common human fallibility.

Simulation of the cold climate event 8200 years ago by meltwater outburst from Lake Agassiz

The cold climate anomaly about 8200 years ago is investigated with CLIMBER-2, a coupled atmosphere-ocean-biosphere model of intermediate complexity. This climate model simulates a cooling of about 3.6 K over the North Atlantic induced by a meltwater pulse from Lake Agassiz routed through the Hudson strait. The meltwater pulse is assumed to have a volume of 1.6 x 10^14 m^3 and a period of discharge of 2 years on the basis of glaciological modeling of the decay of the Laurentide Ice Sheet ( LIS). We present a possible mechanism which can explain the centennial duration of the 8.2 ka cold event. The mechanism is related to the existence of an additional equilibrium climate state with reduced North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation and a southward shift of the NADW formation area. Hints at the additional climate state were obtained from the largely varying duration of the pulse-induced cold episode in response to overlaid random freshwater fluctuations in Monte Carlo simulations. The model equilibrium state was attained by releasing a weak multicentury freshwater flux through the St. Lawrence pathway completed by the meltwater pulse. The existence of such a climate mode appears essential for reproducing climate anomalies in close agreement with paleoclimatic reconstructions of the 8.2 ka event. The results furthermore suggest that the temporal evolution of the cold event was partly a matter of chance.

Landscape of fear: A social history of the missile during the early years of the Cold War, 1950–1965

The missile's significance has been central to national security since the Soviet launching of Sputnik, and became increasingly important throughout the years of the Cold War. Much has been written about missile technology, but little has been written about how the development and deployment of this weapon affected Americans. The missile was developed to both deter war but also to win war. Its presence, however, was not always reassuring. Three areas of the United States are studied to evaluate the social implications of the missile during these pivotal years: San Francisco, home of multiple Nike installations; of Cape Canaveral, Florida, the nation's primary missile test center; the Great Plains, the location of the largest ICBM concentration in the country. Interviews were conducted, tours of facilities were taken, and local newspapers were reviewed. In conjunction with national newspapers and magazines and public opinion polls, this information provided a local social context for missile history. Nationally and locally, Americans both feared and praised the new technology. They were anxious for government funding in their cities and often felt that the danger the missile brought to their communities by making it as a Soviet target was justified in the larger cause for national security.