Age-period-cohort analysis of oral cancer mortality in Europe: the end of an epidemic?

Over the last decade, mortality from oral and pharyngeal cancer has been declining in most European countries, but it had been increasing substantially in Hungary, Slovakia and a few other countries of central Europe, reaching rates comparable to those of lung cancer in several western European countries in males. To update trends in oral cancer mortality and further analyse the recent epidemic in central Europe, official death certifications for oral and pharyngeal cancer for 37 European countries were derived over the period 1970-2007, and an age-period-cohort model was fitted for selected countries. Male oral cancer mortality continued to decline in most European countries, including the Russian Federation, and, more importantly, it also started to decline in some of the countries with the highest male rates, i.e. Hungary and Slovakia; persisting rises were, however, observed in Belarus, Bulgaria and Romania. Oral cancer mortality rates for women were lower than in men and showed no appreciable trend over recent periods in the EU overall. Estimates from the age-period-cohort analysis for most selected countries showed a fall in effects for the cohorts born after the 1950s. For the period effect displayed a rise for the earlier periods, an inversion in the 1990s and a continuous fall up to the last studied period. Only some former non-market economy countries, like Romania, Ukraine and Lithuania, had rising cohort effect trends up to most recent generations. The major finding of this updated analysis of oral cancer mortality is the leveling of the epidemic for men in most European countries, including Hungary and other central European countries, where mortality from this cancer was exceedingly high. These trends essentially reflect the changes in alcohol and tobacco consumption in various populations.

An age-period-cohort analysis of gastric cancer mortality from 1950 to 2007 in Europe.

PURPOSE: To analyze the components of the favorable trends in gastric cancer in Europe. METHODS: From official certified deaths from gastric cancer and population estimates for 42 countries of the European geographical region, during the period 1950 to 2007, age-standardized death rates (World Standard Population) were computed, and an age-period-cohort analysis was performed. RESULTS: Central and Northern countries with lower rates in the 2005 to 2007 period, such as France (5.28 and 1.93/100,000, men and women respectively) and Sweden (4.49 and 2.21/100,000), had descending period and cohort effects that decreased steeply from the earliest cohorts until those born in the 1940s, to then stabilize. Former nonmarket economy countries had mortality rates greater than 20/100,000 men and 10/100,000 women, and displayed a later start in the cohort effect fall, which continued in the younger cohorts. Mortality remained high in some countries of Southern and Eastern Europe. CONCLUSIONS: The decrease in gastric cancer mortality was observed in both cohort and period effects but was larger in the cohorts, suggesting that the downward trends are likely to persist in countries with higher rates. In a few Western countries with very low rates an asymptote appears to have been reached for cohorts born after the 1940s, particularly in women.

Antioxidant enzymes, inflammatory indices and lifestyle factors in older men: a cohort analysis

We examined the relationship between blood antioxidant enzyme activities, indices of inflammatory status and a number of lifestyle factors in the Caerphilly prospective cohort study of ischaemic heart disease. The study began in 1979 and is based on a representative male population sample. Initially 2512 men were seen in phase I, and followed-up every 5 years in phases II and III; they have recently been seen in phase IV. Data on social class, smoking habit, alcohol consumption were obtained by questionnaire, and body mass index was measured. Antioxidant enzyme activities and indices of inflammatory status were estimated by standard techniques. Significant associations were observed for: age with α-1-antichymotrypsin (p<0.0001) and with caeruloplasmin, both protein and oxidase (p<0.0001); smoking habit with α-1-antichymotrypsin (p<0.0001), with caeruloplasmin, both protein and oxidase (p<0.0001) and with glutathione peroxidose (GPX) (p<0.0001); social class with α-1-antichymotrypsin (p<0.0001), with caeruloplasmin both protein (p<0.001) and oxidase (p<0.01) and with GPX (p<0.0001); body mass index with α-1-antichymotrypsin (p<0.0001) and with caeruloplasmin protein (p<0.001). There was no significant association between alcohol consumption and any of the blood enzymes measured. Factor analysis produced a three-factor model (explaining 65.9% of the variation in the data set) which appeared to indicate close inter-relationships among antioxidants.

Chile's new middle classes: a cohort analysis

Includes bibliography

Emergence of acquired HIV-1 drug resistance has almost been stopped in Switzerland - a 15 year prospective cohort analysis

BACKGROUND  Drug resistance is a major barrier to successful antiretroviral treatment (ART). Therefore, it is important to monitor time trends at a population level. METHODS  We included 11,084 ART-experienced patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) between 1999 and 2013. The SHCS is highly representative and includes 72% of patients receiving ART in Switzerland. Drug resistance was defined as the presence of at least one major mutation in a genotypic resistance test. To estimate the prevalence of drug resistance, data for patients with no resistance test was imputed based on patient's risk of harboring drug resistant viruses. RESULTS  The emergence of new drug resistance mutations declined dramatically from 401 to 23 patients between 1999 and 2013. The upper estimated prevalence limit of drug resistance among ART-experienced patients decreased from 57.0% in 1999 to 37.1% in 2013. The prevalence of three-class resistance decreased from 9.0% to 4.4% and was always <0.4% for patients who initiated ART after 2006. Most patients actively participating in the SHCS in 2013 with drug resistant viruses initiated ART before 1999 (59.8%). Nevertheless, in 2013, 94.5% of patients who initiated ART before 1999 had good remaining treatment options based on Stanford algorithm. CONCLUSION  HIV-1 drug resistance among ART-experienced patients in Switzerland is a well-controlled relic from the pre-combination ART era. Emergence of drug resistance can be virtually stopped with new potent therapies and close monitoring.

Age -period -cohort analysis: An extension of Cox's lifetable regression with time -dependent covariates

It is well known that an identification problem exists in the analysis of age-period-cohort data because of the relationship among the three factors (date of birth + age at death = date of death). There are numerous suggestions about how to analyze the data. No one solution has been satisfactory. The purpose of this study is to provide another analytic method by extending the Cox's lifetable regression model with time-dependent covariates. The new approach contains the following features: (1) It is based on the conditional maximum likelihood procedure using a proportional hazard function described by Cox (1972), treating the age factor as the underlying hazard to estimate the parameters for the cohort and period factors. (2) The model is flexible so that both the cohort and period factors can be treated as dummy or continuous variables, and the parameter estimations can be obtained for numerous combinations of variables as in a regression analysis. (3) The model is applicable even when the time period is unequally spaced.^ Two specific models are considered to illustrate the new approach and applied to the U.S. prostate cancer data. We find that there are significant differences between all cohorts and there is a significant period effect for both whites and nonwhites. The underlying hazard increases exponentially with age indicating that old people have much higher risk than young people. A log transformation of relative risk shows that the prostate cancer risk declined in recent cohorts for both models. However, prostate cancer risk declined 5 cohorts (25 years) earlier for whites than for nonwhites under the period factor model (0 0 0 1 1 1 1). These latter results are similar to the previous study by Holford (1983).^ The new approach offers a general method to analyze the age-period-cohort data without using any arbitrary constraint in the model. ^

When do adults learn? A cohort analysis of adult education in Europe. CEPS Working Document No. 383, 21 May 2013

Adult learning is seen as a key factor for enhancing employment, innovation and growth, and it should concern all age cohorts. The aim of this paper is to understand the points in the life cycle at which adult learning takes place and whether it leads to reaching a medium or high level of educational attainment. To this end we perform a synthetic panel analysis of adult learning for cohorts aged 25 to 64 in 27 European countries using the European Labour Force Survey. We find, as previous results suggest, that a rise in educational attainment as well as participation in education and training happens mostly at the age range of 25-29. However, investment across the life cycle by cohorts older than 25 still occurs: in most countries in our sample, participation in education and training as well as educational attainment increases observably across all cohorts. We also find that the decline with age slows down or is even reversed for older cohorts, for both participation in education and educational attainment. Finally, we can identify a Nordic model in which adult learning is achieved through participation in education and training, a Central European model in which adult learning occurs in the form of increasing educational attainment and a liberal model in which both approaches to adult learning are observable.

Five years retrospective cohort analysis of treatment outcomes of TB-HIV patients at a PEPFAR/DOTS Centre in South Eastern Nigeria.

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) associated tuberculosis (TB) remains a major global public health challenge, with an estimated 1.4 million patients worldwide. Co-infection with HIV leads to challenges in the diagnosis and treatment of patients. Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess treatment outcomes of a cohort of smear positive TB-HIV co-infected patients over a five-year study period. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of 600 smear-positive tuberculosis patients registered at the chest unit of the University of Nigeria Teaching Hospital, Enugu from January 2008 to December 2012 was done. The data was analyzed using SPSS Version 17. Results: One hundred and three (17.2%) of the patients were co-infected with TB/HIV, while 398 (66.3%) and 99 (16.5%) were HIV negative and unknown respectively. Among the co-infected patients, 45(43.7%) were cured as against 222(55.8%) in the TBHIV negatives (Z=4.53, p=0.000, 95%CI= 0.12-0.34). Respectively in the TB-HIV co-infected and TB-HIV negative patients, treatment completed were 21(20.4%) and 71(17.8%) (Z=9.15, p=0.000, 95%= 0.4035-0.60); defaulted 19(18.5%) vs 70 (17.6%) (Z=9.29, p=0.000, 95%CI=0.42-0.60), died 10(9.7%) vs. 6(1.5%) (Z=1.22, p=0.224, 95%CI= -0.0286-0.1086), and failures were 1(0.9%) vs. 7(1.8%) (Z=2.48, p=0.013, 95%CI=0.04-0.10). Treatment success rate was lower in TB-HIV co-infected patients, 64.1% compared to TB-HIV negative patients with 73.6%. Also those that defaulted among the TB-HIV co-infected patients (18.5%) were higher than 17.6% among TB-HIV negative patients, a difference of 0.9%. Conclusion: Findings demonstrate that HIV co-infection affects TB treatment outcomes adversely. Treatment adherence, timely and sustained access to antiretroviral therapy for TB/HIV co-infected patients are important.

Influence of birth cohort on age of onset cluster analysis in bipolar I disorder

PURPOSE: Two common approaches to identify subgroups of patients with bipolar disorder are clustering methodology (mixture analysis) based on the age of onset, and a birth cohort analysis. This study investigates if a birth cohort effect will influence the results of clustering on the age of onset, using a large, international database. METHODS: The database includes 4037 patients with a diagnosis of bipolar I disorder, previously collected at 36 collection sites in 23 countries. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to adjust the data for country median age, and in some models, birth cohort. Model-based clustering (mixture analysis) was then performed on the age of onset data using the residuals. Clinical variables in subgroups were compared. RESULTS: There was a strong birth cohort effect. Without adjusting for the birth cohort, three subgroups were found by clustering. After adjusting for the birth cohort or when considering only those born after 1959, two subgroups were found. With results of either two or three subgroups, the youngest subgroup was more likely to have a family history of mood disorders and a first episode with depressed polarity. However, without adjusting for birth cohort (three subgroups), family history and polarity of the first episode could not be distinguished between the middle and oldest subgroups. CONCLUSION: These results using international data confirm prior findings using single country data, that there are subgroups of bipolar I disorder based on the age of onset, and that there is a birth cohort effect. Including the birth cohort adjustment altered the number and characteristics of subgroups detected when clustering by age of onset. Further investigation is needed to determine if combining both approaches will identify subgroups that are more useful for research.

Opioid overdose mortality in Australia, 1964-1997: birth-cohort trends

Objective: To examine trends in rates of opioid overdose deaths from 1964 to 1997 in different birth cohorts. Design: Age-period-cohort analysis of national data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Main outcome measures: Annual population rates of death attributed to opioid dependence or accidental opioid poisoning in people aged 15-44 years, by sex and birth cohort tin five-year intervals, 1940-1944 to 1975-1979). Results: The rate of opioid overdose deaths increased 55-fold between 1964 and 1997, from 1.3 to 71.5 per million population aged 15-44 years. The rate of opioid overdose deaths also increased substantially over the eight birth cohorts, with an incidence rate ratio of 20.70 (95% confidence interval, 13.60-31.46) in the 1975-1979 cohort compared with the 1940-1944 cohort. The age at which the cumulative rate of opioid overdose deaths reached 300 per million fell in successive cohorts (for men, from 28 years among those born 1955-1959 to 22 years among those born 1965-1974; for women, from 33 years among those born 1955-1959 to 27 years among those born 1965-1969). Conclusions: Heroin use in Australia largely began in the early 1970s and rates of heroin use have markedly increased in birth cohorts born since 1950.

Cohort trends in youth suicide in Australia 1964-1997

Objective: This paper examines trends in the rate of suicide among young Australians aged 15-24 years from 1964 to 1997 and presents an age-period-cohort analysis of these trends. Method: Study design consisted of an age-period-cohort analysis of suicide mortality in Australian youth aged between 15 and 24 for the years 1964-1997 inclusive. Data sources were Australian Bureau of Statistics data on: numbers of deaths due to suicide by gender and age at death; and population at risk in each of eight birth cohorts (1940-1944, 1945-1949, 1950-1954, 1955-1959, 1960-1964, 1965-1969, 1970-1974, and 1975-1979). Main outcome measures were population rates of deaths among males and females in each birth cohort attributed to suicide in each year 1964-1997. Results: The rate of suicide deaths among Australian males aged 15-24 years increased from 8.7 per 100 000 in 1964 to 30.9 per 100 000 in 1997, with the rate among females changing little over the period, from 5.2 per 100 000 in 1964 to 7.1 per 100 000 in 1997. While the rate of deaths attributed to suicide increased over the birth cohorts, analyses revealed that these increases were largely due to period effects, with suicide twice as likely among those aged 15-24 years in 1985-1997 than between 1964 and 1969. Conclusions: The rate of youth suicide in Australia has increased since 1964, particularly among males. This increase can largely be attributed to period effects rather than to a cohort effect and has been paralleled by an increased rate of youth suicides internationally and by an increase in other psychosocial problems including psychiatric illness, criminal offending and substance use disorders.

Late Stillbirth: a Ten Year Cohort Study

Introduction: Late fetal death is a desolating event that inspite the effort to implement new surveillance protocols in perinatal continues to defy our clinical pratice. Objective: To examine etiological factors contributing to main causes and conditions associated with fetal death in late pregnancies over a 10-year period. Methods: Retrospective cohort analysis of 208 late singleton stillbirth delived in a tertiary-perinatal referral maternity over a 10-year period. Clinical charts, laboratory data and feto-placental pathology findings were systematically reviewed. Results: The incidence of late fetal demise was 3.5 per 1000 pregnancies. No significant trend in the incidence of stillbirth was demonstrated during the study period. Stillbirth was intrapartum in 12 (5.8%) cases and 72 (35%) were term pregnancies. Fourteen percent of cases were undersurveilled pregnancies. Mean gestacional age at diagnosis was 34 weeks. The primary cause of death was fetal, it was present in 59 cases, 25% were considered small for gestational age. Stillbirths were unexplained in 24.5% of cases. Maternal medical disorders were identified in 21%. Hypertensive disorders were frequent and associated with early gestacional age (p = 0.028). Conclusion: There was no change in the incidence of late stillbirth during the 10 years under evaluation. The incidence was 3.5 ‰ which was identical to that described in developed countries. About one quarter of the stillbirths was unexplained. The most frequent maternal pathology was chronic hypertension.

Anthropometric changes in the brazilian cohort of older adults: SABE survey (Health, Well-Being, and Aging)

The aim of the present study was to analyze the anthropometric changes in a home-based cohort of Brazilian older adults who participated in the SABE Survey, conducted in 2000 and 2006. A total of 1030 men and women were examined by age group: 60-69, 70-79, and ≥80 years. This representative sample consists of the survivors of the 2000 cohort. The following anthropometric variables were assessed: body mass, arm muscle, waist and calf circumferences, triceps skinfold thickness, body mass index, waist-hip ratio, and arm muscle area according to mean values and percentile distribution. Except for body mass and body mass index, a significant difference (P<0.05) was observed among the assessed anthropometric variables during the follow-up period. The older adults ≥80 years presented the lowest values. The reduction in the mean values of triceps skinfold thickness was greater (30%) than that of waist circumference (9%) and was more pronounced in women (21%) than in men (9%). Arm muscle circumference and area reduced by 8% and 19%, respectively, in men and 1% and 3%, correspondingly, in women. Our findings revealed reductions in the mean values for all anthropometric variables in the follow-up period from 2000 to 2006 among older adults. © 2013 Manuela Ferreira de Almeida et al.

Nucleotide and phylogenetic analysis of human papillomavirus types 6 and 11 isolated from recurrent respiratory papillomatosis in Brazil

There are few studies about the distribution of natural molecular variants of low-risk HPVs. Our aim was to evaluate the E6 early gene variability among HPV-6 and HPV-11 isolates detected in recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP) samples obtained in a cohort of Brazilian patients. We also performed a phylogenetic analysis in order to compare nucleotide sequences identified in our study with previously reported isolates from different anatomic sites (laryngeal papillomas, genital warts, cervical cancer and anal swabs) obtained from other parts of the world to determine the phylogenetic relationships of variants detected in Brazil. The complete coding region of the E6 gene of 25 samples was cloned and sequenced: 18 isolates of HPV-6 (72%) and 7 isolates of HPV-11 (28%). A total of four different HPV-6 genomic variants and two HPV-11 genomic variants was identified. It was not possible to correlate specific variants with disease severity. Phylogenetic trees for both HPV types were constructed enclosing both E6 sequences detected in our study and formerly published sequences. In both phylogenetic trees, the sequences from Brazil did not group together. We could not establish a geographical association between HPV-6 or HPV-11 variants, unlike HPV-16 and HPV-18. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.