Potential climate effect on Japanese rice productivity

Adaptation to climate change has become an important policy question in recent years. Agriculture is an economic activity that is most sensitive to climate change. We evaluate the dynamic effects of productivity change and individual efforts to adapt to climate change. Adaptation actions in agriculture are evaluated to determine how the climate affects production efficiency. In this paper, we use the bi-directional distance function method to measure Japanese rice production loss due to climate. We find that (1) accumulated precipitation has the greatest effect on rice production efficiency and (2) the climate effect on rice production efficiency decreases over time. Our results empirically support the benefit of the adaptation approach.

Indications of a climate effect on Mediterranean fisheries

Using the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Mediterranean capture fisheries production dataset in conjunction with global and Mediterranean sea surface temperatures, we investigated trends in fisheries landings and landings per unit of effort of commercially important marine organisms, in relation to temperature oscillations. In addition to the overall warming trend, a temperature shift was detected in the Mediterranean Sea in the late 1990s. Fisheries landings fluctuations were examined for the most abundant commercial species (59 species) and showed significant year-to-year correlations with temperature for nearly 60 % of the cases. From these, the majority (~70 %) were negatively related and showed a reduction of 44 % on average. Increasing trends were found, mainly in the landings of species with short life spans, which seem to have benefited from the increase in water temperature. Τhe effect of oceanic warming is apparent in most species or groups of species sharing ecological (e.g. small and medium pelagic, demersal fish) or taxonomic (e.g. cephalopods, crustaceans) traits. A landings-per-unit-of-effort (LPUE) proxy, using data from the seven Mediterranean European Union member states, also showed significant correlation with temperature fluctuations for six out of the eight species examined, indicating the persistence of temperature influence on landings when the fishing effect is accounted for. The speed of response of marine landings to the warming of the Mediterranean Sea possibly shows both the sensitivity and the vulnerable state of the fish stocks and indicates that climate should be examined together with fisheries as a factor shaping stock fluctuations.

A unifying framework for metrics for aggregating the climate effect of different emissions

Multi-gas approaches to climate change policies require a metric establishing ‘equivalences’ among emissions of various species. Climate scientists and economists have proposed four kinds of such metrics and debated their relative merits. We present a unifying framework that clarifies the relationships among them. We show, as have previous authors, that the global warming potential (GWP), used in international law to compare emissions of greenhouse gases, is a special case of the global damage potential (GDP), assuming (1) a finite time horizon, (2) a zero discount rate, (3) constant atmospheric concentrations, and (4) impacts that are proportional to radiative forcing. Both the GWP and GDP follow naturally from a cost–benefit framing of the climate change issue. We show that the global temperature change potential (GTP) is a special case of the global cost potential (GCP), assuming a (slight) fall in the global temperature after the target is reached. We show how the four metrics should be generalized if there are intertemporal spillovers in abatement costs, distinguishing between private (e.g., capital stock turnover) and public (e.g., induced technological change) spillovers. Both the GTP and GCP follow naturally from a cost-effectiveness framing of the climate change issue. We also argue that if (1) damages are zero below a threshold and (2) infinitely large above a threshold, then cost-effectiveness analysis and cost–benefit analysis lead to identical results. Therefore, the GCP is a special case of the GDP. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change uses the GWP, a simplified cost–benefit concept. The UNFCCC is framed around the ultimate goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. Once a stabilization target has been agreed under the convention, implementation is clearly a cost-effectiveness problem. It would therefore be more consistent to use the GCP or its simplification, the GTP.

Global radiative and climate effect of the water vapour continuum at visible and near-infrared wavelengths

Recent laboratory measurements show that absorption by the water vapour continuum in near-infrared windows may be about an order of magnitude higher than assumed in many radiation codes. The radiative impact of the continuum at visible and near-infrared wavelengths is examined for the present day and for a possible future warmer climate (with a global-mean total column water increase of 33%). The calculations use a continuum model frequently used in climate models (‘CKD’) and a continuum model where absorption is enhanced at wavelengths greater than 1 µm based on recent measurements (‘CAVIAR’). The continuum predominantly changes the partitioning between solar radiation absorbed by the surface and the atmosphere; changes in top-of-atmosphere net irradiances are smaller. The global-mean clear-sky atmospheric absorption is enhanced by 1.5 W m−2 (about 2%) and 2.8 W m−2 (about 3.5%) for CKD and CAVIAR respectively, relative to a hypothetical no-continuum case, with all-sky enhancements about 80% of these values. The continuum is, in relative terms, more important for radiation budget changes between the present day and a possible future climate. Relative to the no-continuum case, the increase in global-mean clear-sky absorption is 8% higher using CKD and almost 20% higher using CAVIAR; all-sky enhancements are about half these values. The effect of the continuum is estimated for the solar component of the water vapour feedback, the reduction in downward surface irradiance and precipitation change in a warmer world. For CKD and CAVIAR respectively, and relative to the no-continuum case, the solar component of the water vapour feedback is enhanced by about 4 and 9%, the change in clear-sky downward surface irradiance is 7 and 18% more negative, and the global-mean precipitation response decreases by 1 and 4%. There is a continued need for improved continuum measurements, especially at atmospheric temperatures and at wavelengths below 2 µm.

Top-down solar modulation of climate: evidence for centennial-scale change

During the descent into the recent ‘exceptionally’ low solar minimum, observations have revealed a larger change in solar UV emissions than seen at the same phase of previous solar cycles. This is particularly true at wavelengths responsible for stratospheric ozone production and heating. This implies that ‘top-down’ solar modulation could be a larger factor in long-term tropospheric change than previously believed, many climate models allowing only for the ‘bottom-up’ effect of the less-variable visible and infrared solar emissions. We present evidence for long-term drift in solar UV irradiance, which is not found in its commonly used proxies. In addition, we find that both stratospheric and tropospheric winds and temperatures show stronger regional variations with those solar indices that do show long-term trends. A top-down climate effect that shows long-term drift (and may also be out of phase with the bottom-up solar forcing) would change the spatial response patterns and would mean that climate-chemistry models that have sufficient resolution in the stratosphere would become very important for making accurate regional/seasonal climate predictions. Our results also provide a potential explanation of persistent palaeoclimate results showing solar influence on regional or local climate indicators.

Effect of pre-bloom leaf defoliation on cluster morphology and disease pressure

Mestrado Vinifera Euromaster - Instituto Superior de Agronomia - UL

Impacts of experimental warming and fire on phenology of subalpine open-heath species

The present study examined experimentally the phenological responses of a range of plant species to rises in temperature. We used the climate-change field protocol of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), which measures plant responses to warming of 1 to 2°C inside small open-topped chambers. The field study was established on the Bogong High Plains, Australia, in subalpine open heathlands; the most common treeless plant community on the Bogong High Plains. The study included areas burnt by fire in 2003, and therefore considers the interactive effects of warming and fire, which have rarely been studied in high mountain environments. From November 2003 to March 2006, various phenological phases were monitored inside and outside chambers during the snow-free periods. Warming resulted in earlier occurrence of key phenological events in 7 of the 14 species studied. Burning altered phenology in 9 of 10 species studied, with both earlier and later phenological changes depending on the species. There were no common phenological responses to warming or burning among species of the same family, growth form or flowering type (i.e. early or late-flowering species), when all phenological events were examined. The proportion of plants that formed flower buds was influenced by fire in half of the species studied. The findings support previous findings of ITEX and other warming experiments; that is, species respond individualistically to experimental warming. The inter-year variation in phenological response, the idiosyncratic nature of the responses to experimental warming among species, and an inherent resilience to fire, may result in community resilience to short-term climate change. In the first 3 years of experimental warming, phenological responses do not appear to be driving community-level change. Our findings emphasise the value of examining multiple species in climate-change studies.

Eurasian large mammal dynamics in response to changing environments during the Late Neogene

Nisäkkäiden levinneisyyteen, niiden morfologisiin ja ekologisiin piirteisiin vaikuttavat ympäristön sekä lyhyet että pitkäkestoiset muutokset, etenkin ilmaston ja kasvillisuuden vaihtelut. Työssä tutkittiin nisäkkäiden sopeutumista ilmastonmuutoksiin Euraasiassa viimeisen 24 miljoonan vuoden aikana. Tutkimuksessa keskityttiin varsinkin viimeiseen kahteen miljoonaan vuoteen, jonka aikana ilmasto muuttui voimakkaasti ja ihmisen toiminta alkoi tulla merkittäväksi. Tämän takia on usein vaikea erottaa, kummasta em. seikasta jonkin nisäkäslajin sukupuutto tai häviäminen alueelta johtui. Aineistona käytettiin laajaa venäjänkielistä kirjallisuutta, josta löytyvät tiedot ovat kääntämättöminä jääneet aiemmin länsimaisen tutkimuksen ulkopuolelle. Työssä käytettiin myös NOW-tietokantaa, jossa on fossiilisten nisäkkäiden löytöpaikat sekä niiden iät.

Modelling the influence of land-use changes on biophysical and biochemical interactions at regional and global scales

Land-use changes since the start of the industrial era account for nearly one-third of the cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions. In addition to the greenhouse effect of CO2 emissions, changes in land use also affect climate via changes in surface physical properties such as albedo, evapotranspiration and roughness length. Recent modelling studies suggest that these biophysical components may be comparable with biochemical effects. In regard to climate change, the effects of these two distinct processes may counterbalance one another both regionally and, possibly, globally. In this article, through hypothetical large-scale deforestation simulations using a global climate model, we contrast the implications of afforestation on ameliorating or enhancing anthropogenic contributions from previously converted (agricultural) land surfaces. Based on our review of past studies on this subject, we conclude that the sum of both biophysical and biochemical effects should be assessed when large-scale afforestation is used for countering global warming, and the net effect on global mean temperature change depends on the location of deforestation/afforestation. Further, although biochemical effects trigger global climate change, biophysical effects often cause strong local and regional climate change. The implication of the biophysical effects for adaptation and mitigation of climate change in agriculture and agroforestry sectors is discussed. center dot Land-use changes affect global and regional climates through both biochemical and biophysical process. center dot Climate effect from biophysical process depends on the location of land-use change. center dot Climate mitigation strategies such as afforestation/reforestation should consider the net effect of biochemical and biophysical processes for effective mitigation. center dot Climate-smart agriculture could use bio-geoengineering techniques that consider plant biophysical characteristics such as reflectivity and water use efficiency.

中国西部亚热带常绿阔叶林木本植物小枝功能生态学初步研究

常绿阔叶林以其富饶的生物资源、丰富的生物多样性和巨大的生态与环境效益引起了人们越来越大的重视，它的研究已成为国际植被科学界关注的主题之一。我国分布着世界上面积最大的亚热带常绿阔叶林，在世界植被中具有重要地位，它的分布表现出明显的地带性差异，存在着多样的植物群系及其对应的气候特征。但是在植物功能性状领域，与全球范围其它生物群系相比，常绿阔叶林物种的研究较少，其功能性状间、功能性状与环境间的关系尚不清晰。 本研究以常绿阔叶林木本植物的当年生小枝为对象，试图从小枝水平上的生物量分配格局、叶片大小与数量的权衡关系、小枝茎的构型效应、叶片元素化学计量学，以及小枝大小的成本与效益分析等方面，较为系统地揭示小枝水平上的植物功能性状间及其与气候间的关系。因此，在华西雨屏带内部的不同纬度设置峨眉－青城－雷波－平武的温度梯度进行比较，并对有降水差异的川西南偏湿性（雷波）与偏干性常绿阔叶林（西昌）进行对比研究，同时在不同山体进行不同海拔梯度的比较研究。 本文主要研究结果如下： （1）小枝生物量分配格局叶水平上，叶片重－叶柄重（Y轴vs.X轴,下同）呈斜率小于1的异速生长关系，表明叶柄对叶内部的生物量分配影响显著。小枝水平上，叶和茎的生物量以及它们与小枝总生物量间基本呈等速生长关系，表明大的小枝或大叶物种不一定在叶生物量的分配上占优势。不同生活型间，在小枝或者茎的生物量一定时，常绿物种叶片的生物量比例较落叶物种稍高。与温度和水分较优越（峨眉及其低海拔）的生境相比，在相对低湿（螺髻）与低温（平武）的生境中的植物会减少对叶的投入而增加对支撑部分的投资比例。 （2）小枝叶片大小与数量的权衡无论是不同气候带还是不同生活型以及不同海拔梯度，叶片大小与出叶强度基本都是呈负的等速生长关系，表明了叶片大小－数量在小枝水平上的权衡。在不同气候梯度的对比中，叶片数量（出叶强度）一定时，高温和高水分生境（峨眉）比低温（平武）和低湿（螺髻山）生境中的物种的叶片大小（质量和面积）更大，表明不同生境的比较中，小的叶片可能具有较高的出叶强度和更高的适合度收益。“出叶强度优势”（Leafingintensitypremium）假说可能不适宜解释不同生境物种叶片大小差异。 （3）小枝茎的构型效应虽然茎长和茎径与叶片大小都呈正相关关系，与出叶强度都呈负相关关系，但茎长/茎径比与叶/茎生物量之比呈负相关关系；与叶片的大小呈负相关关系，与出叶强度呈正相关关系。这说明小枝构型能影响小枝叶/茎生物量分配和叶大小－数量的权衡关系。其影响机制可能是小枝内部的顶端优势。另外，茎长/茎径比在低湿和低温等不利生境中的植物中较高，而在降水和温度较适宜环境中较低。 （4）叶片C、N、P化学计量学N含量和P含量，C/N比和比叶重（LMA,leafmassperarea）呈正的等速生长关系，而N和LMA，P和LMA呈负的等速生长关系。在LMA一定时，C/N比随着生境胁迫压力的增加而降低，N、P含量随着生境压力的增加而增加。在P含量一定时，N含量随着生境压力的增加而降低，即N/P比在生境条件较优（峨眉及其低海拔）时较高。常绿和落叶植物叶片的N/P比没有差异，在LMA一定时，常绿植物的N、P含量较高、C/N比较低。总之，植物的C、N、P化学计量学特征受叶片属性如LMA与气候，及其相互作用的影响。 （5）小枝大小的代价与效益分析、TLA与小枝总重总叶面积（TLA,totalleafarea，Y轴，下同）与总叶重（X轴）均呈斜率小于1的异速生长关系，TLA与小枝横切面积呈斜率为1的等速生长关系。表明叶片面积的增加总是小于叶重和小枝总重的增加，随着小枝的增大，它的叶面积支撑效率下降。在热量和降水优越的生境（峨眉及其低海拔）中，相同小枝重或者相同茎横切面积的小枝，其叶面积支撑效率较低湿与低温环境下（螺髻山、平武及高海拔）的高。 总体上，本文初步研究了小枝水平上可能存在的以下三种权衡关系：叶－茎生物量分配权衡；叶片大小－数量的权衡；小枝茎长－茎径的权衡关系，以及气候要素等对这三种权衡关系的影响。在此基础上，我们还讨论了这些权衡关系的可能形成机制，及其与物种生态适应的联系。本研究丰富了生活史对策中关于权衡关系的研究内容，为我国常绿阔叶林功能生态学研究积累了材料。 Evergreen broad-leaved forests are attracting much more attention from vegetation ecologists than ever before because of their abundant nature resource and biological diversity, and also great ecological benefits. China has the largest distribution of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests (temperate rainforests) that are typical and representative in the world. The forests span over more than ten degrees in latitude and more than 30 degrees in longitude, providing an ideal place to study plant functional ecology, i.e., the climatic effect on plant functional traits and the relationship between the traits. However, relative to the other biomes, there are few studies addressing functional ecology of the plant species from subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests. In this study, I focused on the leaf size-twig size spectrum of the woody species of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in southwestern china. I collected data on leaf size and number, twig size in terms of both mass and volume, and stem architecture from five temperate mountains, and then I analyzed the relationships between leaf and stem biomass and between leaf size and number, the effect of stem length/diameter ratio on biomass allocation and on the relationship between leaf size and number, leaf C:N:P stoichiometry, and the twig efficiency of supporting leaf area in relation to twig size. I also addressed the climate effect on the spectrum. The temperature gradient from warm to cool sites was represented by Emei Mountain, Qingchengshan, Leibo, and Pingwu, and the rainfall gradient was assumed to emerge from the comparison between Leibo (High) and Luojishan (Low). In addition, altitudinal effects were analyzed with comparisons between low and high altitudes for each mountains. My main results are as follows. Isometric relationships were found between leaf mass and twig mass and between lamina mass and twig mass, suggesting that the biomass allocation to leaves or laminas was independent of twig mass. Petiole mass disproportionably increase with respect to lamina mass and twig mass, indicating the importance of leaf petioles to the within-twig biomass allocation. In addition, the investigated species tended to have a larger leaf and lamina mass, but a smaller stem mass at a given twig mass at favorable environments including warm and humid sites or at low altitude than unfavorable habitats, which might be due to the large requirements in physical support and transporting safety for the species living at unfavorable conditions. Moreover, the evergreen species invested more in leaves and laminas than the deciduous at given stem or twig biomass within any specified habitats. Negative, isometric scaling relationships between leaf number and size broadly existed in the species regardless of climate, altitude, and life forms, suggesting a leaf size/number trade-off within twigs. Along the climatic gradients, at given leaf number or leafing intensity, the leaves were larger in the favorable environments than the poor habitats. This suggested that the fitness benefit gained by small leaves could be larger than that with high leafing intensity in the stressful sites. I concluded that the “leafing intensity premium” hypothesis was not appropriate to interpreting between-habitat variation in leaf size. Both stem length and diameter were positively correlated to leaf size but negatively correlated to leafing intensity. The ratio of stem length to diameter was negatively correlated to leaf mass fraction, and it was negatively correlated to leaf size but positively correlated to leafing intensity. This suggested that the stem architecture influenced twig biomass allocation and the relationship between leaf size and number. The mechanism underlying the architectural effect might lie in the apical dominance within twig. Moreover, the ratio was greater in unfavorable habitats but smaller in favorable environments. Positive, isometric relationships were found between N and P contents per leaf mass, and between C/N ratio and leaf mass per area (LMA), but N and P contents scaled negatively to LMA. C/N ratio decreased but N and P increased with increasing habitat stress at a given LMA. N content declined with increasing habitat stress at given P content. These indicated that N/P and C/N were higher but LMA was lower in favorable habitats than in the other circumstances. The evergreen and deciduous species were non-heterogeneous in N/P, but the evergreen species have higher N and P contents and lower C/N than the deciduous ones. In general, C:N:P stoichiometry were related to both climatic conditions and other important functional traits like LMA. Total leaf area (TLA) allometricly scaled to leaf mass with a slope shallower than 1, similar to the relationship between TLA and total twig mass (leaf mass plus stem mass), suggesting that TLA failed to keep pace with the increase of leaf mass and twig size. However, TLA scaled isometricly to twig cross-sectional area. Thus, it could be inferred that the twig efficiency of displaying leaf area decreased with increasing twig size. In addition, the efficiency at a given twig size was large in favorable than unfavorable habitats. In general, in this preliminary study, I studied three tradeoff relationships within twigs, i.e., between leaf and stem biomass, between leaf number and size, and between stem length and diameter, as well as the climatic effect on the relationships. I discussed the mechanisms underlying the tradeoff relationships in view of biophysics and eco-physiology of plants. I believe that this study can serve as important materials advancing plant functional ecology of subtropical forest and that it will improve the understanding of life history strategies of plants from this particular biome.

Studies on the benthose of the mud bank regions of the Kerala coast

There is very little information on the subtidal bottom fauna of the shelf regions in the seas around India. What little is known is restricted to macro benthos. The paucity of the work on bottom fauna and the importance of mud banks in the fishery of the South West Coast of India has initiated the present study. Attempts have been made to obtain a picture of the bottom fauna of a mud bank region of the Kerala Coast. The difficulties involved in the sampling and analysis, especially the availability of a suitable vessel during the S.W. Monsoon, resulted in the work being restricted mainly to the Narakal mud bank region 6 Km. north of Cochin Detailed sampling is conducted using grab, dredge and to a small extent beam trawl, to assess the qualitative and quantitative nature of the macro benthos. Important species contributing to the fauna are identified and the standing crop estimated for different seasons. The meiobenthos was studied using core samples taken from the grab. Animals were identified to the major taxa. Standing crop of meiobenthos and the quantitative importance of different groups were also studied. The data collected have been interpreted and discussed. As an understanding of the physico-chemical aspects of the environment is essential in order to obtain a true picture of the benthos, attempts were made in this direction. Environmental parameters such as temperature of the sediment, salinity, temperature, and dissolved oxygen in the overlying water were studied .during the period of benthos investigation. Monthly observations on the dissolved inorganic and organic phosphorus in the area of investigation have been made. The physico-chemical nature of the sediment was also studied. Influence of these ecological variables on the bottom fauna is discussed.

Modeling and Mapping Golden-winged Warbler Abundance to Improve Regional Conservation Strategies

Conservation planning requires identifying pertinent habitat factors and locating geographic locations where land management may improve habitat conditions for high priority species. I derived habitat models and mapped predicted abundance for the Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera), a species of high conservation concern, using bird counts, environmental variables, and hierarchical models applied at multiple spatial scales. My aim was to understand habitat associations at multiple spatial scales and create a predictive abundance map for purposes of conservation planning for the Golden-winged Warbler. My models indicated a substantial influence of landscape conditions, including strong positive associations with total forest composition within the landscape. However, many of the associations I observed were counter to reported associations at finer spatial extents; for instance, I found Golden-winged Warblers negatively associated with several measures of edge habitat. No single spatial scale dominated, indicating that this species is responding to factors at multiple spatial scales. I found Golden-winged Warbler abundance was negatively related with Blue-winged Warbler (Vermivora cyanoptera) abundance. I also observed a north-south spatial trend suggestive of a regional climate effect that was not previously noted for this species. The map of predicted abundance indicated a large area of concentrated abundance in west-central Wisconsin, with smaller areas of high abundance along the northern periphery of the Prairie Hardwood Transition. This map of predicted abundance compared favorably with independent evaluation data sets and can thus be used to inform regional planning efforts devoted to conserving this species.

A case study of the radiative forcing of persistent contrails evolving into contrail-induced cirrus

The radiative forcing due to a distinct pattern of persistent contrails that form into contrail-induced cirrus near and over the UK is investigated in detail for a single case study during March 2009. The development of the contrail-induced cirrus is tracked using a number of high-resolution polar orbiting and lower-resolution geostationary satellite instruments and is found to persist for a period of around 18 h, and at its peak, it covers over 50,000 km2. The shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative forcing of the contrail-induced cirrus is estimated using a combination of geostationary satellite instruments, numerical weather prediction models, and surface observation sites. As expected, the net radiative effect is a relatively small residual of the much stronger but opposing SW and LW effects, locally totaling around 10 W m−2 during daylight hours and 30 W m−2 during nighttime. A simple estimate indicates that this single localized event may have generated a global-mean radiative forcing of around 7% of recent estimates of the persistent contrail radiative forcing due to the entire global aircraft fleet on a diurnally averaged basis. A single aircraft operating in conditions favorable for persistent contrail formation appears to exert a contrail-induced radiative forcing some 5000 times greater (in W m−2 km−1) than recent estimates of the average persistent contrail radiative forcing from the entire civil aviation fleet. This study emphasizes the need to establish whether similar events are common or highly unusual for a confident assessment of the total climate effect of aviation to be made.