The problem of clear air turbulence: Changing perspectives in the understanding of the phenomenon

Due to rapid improvements in on-board instrumentation and atmospheric observation systems, in most cases, aircraft are able to steer clear of regions of adverse weather. However, they still encounter unexpected bumpy flight conditions in regions away from storms and clouds. This is the phenomenon of clear air turbulence (CAT), which has been a challenge to our understanding as well as efforts at prediction. While most of such cases result in mild discomfort, a few cases can be violent leading to serious injuries to passengers and damage to the aircraft. The underlying physical mechanisms have been sought to be explained in terms of fluid dynamic instabilities and waves in the atmosphere. The main mechanisms which have been proposed are: (i) Kelvin-Helmholtz instability of shear layers, (ii) waves generated from flow over mountains, (iii) inertia-gravity waves from clouds and other sources, (iv) spontaneous imbalance theory and (v) horizontal vortex tubes. This has also undergone a change over the years. We present an overview of the mechanisms proposed and their implications for prediction.

Secondary instability as a possible mechanism for clear-air turbulence: a case study

Many theories and mechanisms have been proposed to explain the phenomenon of clear-air turbulence (CAT), and some of them have been successful in predicting light, moderate and, in some cases, severe turbulence. It is only recently that skill in the forecasting of the severe form of CAT, which could lead to injuries to passengers and damage to aircraft, has improved. Recent observations and simulations suggest that some severe to extreme turbulence could be caused by horizontal vortex tubes resulting from secondary instabilities of regions of high shear in the atmosphere. We have conducted direct numerical simulations to understand the scale relationship between primary structures (larger-scale structures related to one of the causes mentioned above) and secondary structures (smaller-sized, shear structures of the size of aircraft). From shear layer simulations, we find that the ratio of sizes of primary and secondary vortices is of the right order to generate aircraft-scale vortex tubes from typical atmospheric shear layers. We have also conducted simulations with a mesoscale atmospheric model, to understand possible causes of turbulence experienced by a flight off the west coast of India. Our simulations show the occurrence of primary flow structures related to synoptic conditions around the time of the incident. The evidence presented for this mechanism also has implications for possible methods of detection and avoidance of severe CAT.

Application of the Lighthill-Ford theory of spontaneous imbalance to clear-air turbulence forecasting

A new method of clear-air turbulence (CAT) forecasting based on the Lighthill–Ford theory of spontaneous imbalance and emission of inertia–gravity waves has been derived and applied on episodic and seasonal time scales. A scale analysis of this shallow-water theory for midlatitude synoptic-scale flows identifies advection of relative vorticity as the leading-order source term. Examination of leading- and second-order terms elucidates previous, more empirically inspired CAT forecast diagnostics. Application of the Lighthill–Ford theory to the Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys CAT outbreak of 9 March 2006 results in good agreement with pilot reports of turbulence. Application of Lighthill–Ford theory to CAT forecasting for the 3 November 2005–26 March 2006 period using 1-h forecasts of the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) 2 1500 UTC model run leads to superior forecasts compared to the current operational version of the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG1) algorithm, the most skillful operational CAT forecasting method in existence. The results suggest that major improvements in CAT forecasting could result if the methods presented herein become operational.

An improvement in clear-air turbulence forecasting based on spontaneous imbalance theory: the ULTURB algorithm

Recent research has shown that Lighthill–Ford spontaneous gravity wave generation theory, when applied to numerical model data, can help predict areas of clear-air turbulence. It is hypothesized that this is the case because spontaneously generated atmospheric gravity waves may initiate turbulence by locally modifying the stability and wind shear. As an improvement on the original research, this paper describes the creation of an ‘operational’ algorithm (ULTURB) with three modifications to the original method: (1) extending the altitude range for which the method is effective downward to the top of the boundary layer, (2) adding turbulent kinetic energy production from the environment to the locally produced turbulent kinetic energy production, and, (3) transforming turbulent kinetic energy dissipation to eddy dissipation rate, the turbulence metric becoming the worldwide ‘standard’. In a comparison of ULTURB with the original method and with the Graphical Turbulence Guidance second version (GTG2) automated procedure for forecasting mid- and upper-level aircraft turbulence ULTURB performed better for all turbulence intensities. Since ULTURB, unlike GTG2, is founded on a self-consistent dynamical theory, it may offer forecasters better insight into the causes of the clear-air turbulence and may ultimately enhance its predictability.

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on transatlantic flight routes and clear-air turbulence

The variation of wind-optimal transatlantic flight routes and their turbulence potential is investigated to understand how upper-level winds and large-scale flow patterns can affect the efficiency and safety of long-haul flights. In this study, the wind-optimal routes (WORs) that minimize the total flight time by considering wind variations are modeled for flights between John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) in New York, New York, and Heathrow Airport (LHR) in London, United Kingdom, during two distinct winter periods of abnormally high and low phases of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection patterns. Eastbound WORs approximate the JFK–LHR great circle (GC) route following northerly shifted jets in the +NAO period. Those WORs deviate southward following southerly shifted jets during the −NAO period, because eastbound WORs fly closely to the prevailing westerly jets to maximize tailwinds. Westbound WORs, however, spread meridionally to avoid the jets near the GC in the +NAO period to minimize headwinds. In the −NAO period, westbound WORs are north of the GC because of the southerly shifted jets. Consequently, eastbound WORs are faster but have higher probabilities of encountering clear-air turbulence than westbound ones, because eastbound WORs are close to the jet streams, especially near the cyclonic shear side of the jets in the northern (southern) part of the GC in the +NAO (−NAO) period. This study suggests how predicted teleconnection weather patterns can be used for long-haul strategic flight planning, ultimately contributing to minimizing aviation’s impact on the environment

Intensification of winter transatlantic aviation turbulence in response to climate change

Atmospheric turbulence causes most weather-related aircraft incidents1. Commercial aircraft encounter moderate-or-greater turbulence tens of thousands of times each year worldwide, injuring probably hundreds of passengers (occasionally fatally), costing airlines tens of millions of dollars and causing structural damage to planes1, 2, 3. Clear-air turbulence is especially difficult to avoid, because it cannot be seen by pilots or detected by satellites or on-board radar4, 5. Clear-air turbulence is linked to atmospheric jet streams6, 7, which are projected to be strengthened by anthropogenic climate change8. However, the response of clear-air turbulence to projected climate change has not previously been studied. Here we show using climate model simulations that clear-air turbulence changes significantly within the transatlantic flight corridor when the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is doubled. At cruise altitudes within 50–75° N and 10–60° W in winter, most clear-air turbulence measures show a 10–40% increase in the median strength of turbulence and a 40–170% increase in the frequency of occurrence of moderate-or-greater turbulence. Our results suggest that climate change will lead to bumpier transatlantic flights by the middle of this century. Journey times may lengthen and fuel consumption and emissions may increase. Aviation is partly responsible for changing the climate9, but our findings show for the first time how climate change could affect aviation.

Aircraft hazard assessment from a clear-air radar and meteorological tower study of gravity wave events /

"June 1983."

Instabilities of a compressible stratified fluid in horizontal sheared motion

The stability characteristics of a Helmholtz velocity profile in a stably stratified, compressible atmosphere in the presence of a lower boundary are studied. A jump in the Brunt–Väisälä frequency is introduced and the level at which this jump occurs is assumed to be different from the shear zone, to simulate sharp temperature discontinuities in the atmosphere. The results are compared with those of Pellacani, Tebaldi, and Tosi and Lindzen and Rosenthal. In the present configuration, new unstable modes with larger growth rates are found. The wavelengths of the most unstable gravity waves for the parameters pertaining to observed cases of clear air turbulence agree quite closely with the experimental values. Physics of Fluids is copyrighted by The American Institute of Physics

Diurnal Structure of Monsoon Boundary Layer

The characteristics of the monsoon boundary layer are imperative to understand in the perception of the tropical regions. The southwest monsoon is associated with a strong wind in the lower troposphere near 1.5 km and is referred to as Low Level Jet stream (LLJ). The boundary layer structure associated with the LLJ during monsoon can be studied using L-band Ultra High Frequency (UHF) radar. This L-band wind profiler-commonly referred as lower atmospheric wind profiler (LAWP), was installed at NARL, Gadanki. Zonal, meridional and vertical wind components are used to understand the diurnal variation of the wind in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) and associated features. From the analysis during non rainy days of the southwest monsoon, it is found that the LLJ has maximum strength during the early morning hours at lower level and the height increases as day progresses. The vertical wind shows the transfer of momentum from the LLJ towards the surface, indicating the sinking motion during the daytime. Vertical gradient of the wind shear shows the intensity of clear air turbulence is moderate and no severe clear air turbulence is noticed during the monsoon period

Lagrangian transport evaluation of atmospheric chemistry in the Mediterranean region

Global observations of the chemical composition of the atmosphere are essential for understanding and studying the present and future state of the earth's atmosphere. However, by analyzing field experiments the consideration of the atmospheric motion is indispensable, because transport enables different chemical species, with different local natural and anthropogenic sources, to interact chemically and so consequently influences the chemical composition of the atmosphere. The distance over which that transport occurs is highly dependent upon meteorological conditions (e.g., wind speed, precipitation) and the properties of chemical species itself (e.g., solubility, reactivity). This interaction between chemistry and dynamics makes the study of atmospheric chemistry both difficult and challenging, and also demonstrates the relevance of including the atmospheric motions in that context. In this doctoral thesis the large-scale transport of air over the eastern Mediterranean region during summer 2001, with a focus on August during the Mediterranean Intensive Oxidant Study (MINOS) measurement campaign, was investigated from a lagrangian perspective. Analysis of back trajectories demonstrated transport of polluted air masses from western and eastern Europe in the boundary layer, from the North Atlantic/North American area in the middle end upper troposphere and additionally from South Asia in the upper troposphere towards the eastern Mediterranean. Investigation of air mass transport near the tropopause indicated enhanced cross-tropopause transport relative to the surrounding area over the eastern Mediterranean region in summer. A large band of air mass transport across the dynamical tropopause develops in June, and is shifted toward higher latitudes in July and August. This shifting is associated with the development and the intensification of the Arabian and South Asian upper-level anticyclones and consequential with areas of maximum clear-air turbulence, hypothesizing quasi-permanent areas with turbulent mixing of tropospheric and stratospheric air during summer over the eastern Mediterranean as a result of large-scale synoptic circulation. In context with the latex knowledge about the transport of polluted air masses towards the Mediterranean and with increasing emissions, especially in developing countries like India, this likely gains in importance.

Using Doppler radar with a simple explicit microphysics model to diagnose problems with ice sublimation depth-scales in forecast models

Several previous studies have attempted to assess the sublimation depth-scales of ice particles from clouds into clear air. Upon examining the sublimation depth-scales in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), it was found that the MetUM has evaporation depth-scales 2–3 times larger than radar observations. Similar results can be seen in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO) and Météo-France models. In this study, we use radar simulation (converting model variables into radar observations) and one-dimensional explicit microphysics numerical modelling to test and diagnose the cause of the deep sublimation depth-scales in the forecast model. The MetUM data and parametrization scheme are used to predict terminal velocity, which can be compared with the observed Doppler velocity. This can then be used to test the hypothesis as to why the sublimation depth-scale is too large within the MetUM. Turbulence could lead to dry air entrainment and higher evaporation rates; particle density may be wrong, particle capacitance may be too high and lead to incorrect evaporation rates or the humidity within the sublimating layer may be incorrectly represented. We show that the most likely cause of deep sublimation zones is an incorrect representation of model humidity in the layer. This is tested further by using a one-dimensional explicit microphysics model, which tests the sensitivity of ice sublimation to key atmospheric variables and is capable of including sonde and radar measurements to simulate real cases. Results suggest that the MetUM grid resolution at ice cloud altitudes is not sufficient enough to maintain the sharp drop in humidity that is observed in the sublimation zone.