Modeling the viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia : an object-oriented Bayesian network approach

Conservation of free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations is multi faceted and needs to be addressed from an ecological, biological and management perspective. There is a wealth of published research, each focusing on a particular aspect of cheetah conservation. Identifying the most important factors, making sense of various (and sometimes contrasting) findings, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing conservationists. Bayesian networks (BN) provide a statistical modeling framework that enables analysis and integration of information addressing different aspects of conservation. There has been an increased interest in the use of BNs to model conservation issues, however the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilizing object-oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. We describe an integrated, parallel modeling process followed during a BN modeling workshop held in Namibia to combine expert knowledge and data about free-ranging cheetahs. The aim of the workshop was to obtain a more comprehensive view of the current viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia, and to predict the effect different scenarios may have on the future viability of this free-ranging cheetah population. Furthermore, a complementary aim was to identify influential parameters of the model to more effectively target those parameters having the greatest impact on population viability. The BN was developed by aggregating diverse perspectives from local and independent scientists, agents from the national ministry, conservation agency members and local fieldworkers. This integrated BN approach facilitates OO modeling in a multi-expert context which lends itself to a series of integrated, yet independent, subnetworks describing different scientific and management components. We created three subnetworks in parallel: a biological, ecological and human factors network, which were then combined to create a complete representation of free-ranging cheetah population viability. Such OOBNs have widespread relevance to the effective and targeted conservation management of vulnerable and endangered species.

Developing the Cost of Large Carnivore Conflict Rapid Response Units - A Namibian Case Study

Namibia is home to half the world’s remaining wild cheetahs and - provides critical habitat for lions, leopards, spotted and brown hyena and African Wild Dogs. Despite such ecological importance, only 5% of cheetah's, <1% of African Wild Dogs', and similar percentages of remaining habitat for other large carnivores exists on officially protected lands. As a result, human/carnivore conflict is a large problem on private lands, where 60% of surveyed farmers will shoot any large carnivore on sight. This project explores building a carnivore rapid response team equipped to mitigate human/carnivore conflict through researching the financial costs of such an endeavor, with an eye on capitalizing potential benefits to all 6 Namibian large carnivore species.

Habitat-species interactions in a carnivore community

Na maioria das area protegidas nacionais existe uma considerável falta de informação científica relativa aos mamíferos carnívoros. A Reserva Natural da Serra da Malcata, localizada no centro-este de Portugal, tem vindo a desenvolver, desde os últimos 20 anos, estudos de ecologia e esta tese pretende dar seguimento a esse esforço de monitorização, através do desenvolvimento de métodos simples e eficientes, de monitorização de carnívoros, que possam servir como percursores de trabalhos a longo-prazo em áreas relevantes para a conservação. Através do uso de armadilhagem fotográfica, foram estudadas relações espécies-habitats para 5 espécies: gato-bravo (Felis silvestris), fuinha (Martes foina), raposa (Vulpes vulpes), gineta (Genetta genetta), e sacarrabos (Herpestes ichneumon). Foram desenvolvidos métodos para se determinar a densidade absoluta de raposa e gineta e a população de gato-bravo foi estudada em detalhe. As principais conclusões do estudo foram: 1) a ocupação de raposas é uniforme e parece ser independente de variáveis ambientais; 2) a ocupação de fuinha encontra-se relacionada com variáveis de habitat, estrutura paisagística e presas; 3) a ocupação de gineta está relacionada com a cobertura de folhosas e distribuição de presas; 4) para o sacarrabos verificase que a ocupação é influenciada pelas extensões de habitat arbustivos, 5) a população de gato-bravo sofreu um forte declínio durante o trabalho e requer urgentes medidas de conservação. Metodologicamente foi demonstrada a importância da modelação das probabilidades de detecção para espécies para as quais este parâmetros apresenta valores baixos ou é muito variável. Esta tese também demonstrou a grande importância da Serra da Malcata para a conservação de carnívoros e a necessidade do desenvolvimento de técnicas de monitorização padronizadas para uma correcta gestão adaptativa das áreas protegidas.

Population and landscape genetics of the stone marten and red fox in Portugal : implications for conservation management of common carnivores

Tese de doutoramento, Biologia (Biologia da Conservação), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2015

Successful carnivore identification with faecal DNA across a fragmented Amazonian landscape

The use of scat surveys to obtain DNA has been well documented in temperate areas, where DNA preservation may be more effective than in tropical forests. Samples obtained in the tropics are often exposed to high humidity, warm temperatures, frequent rain and intense sunlight, all of which can rapidly degrade DNA. Despite these potential problems, we demonstrate successful mtDNA amplification and sequencing for faeces of carnivores collected in tropical conditions and quantify how sample condition and environmental variables influence the success of PCR amplification and species identification. Additionally, the feasibility of genotyping nuclear microsatellites from jaguar (Panthera onca) faeces was investigated. From October 2007 to December 2008, 93 faecal samples were collected in the southern Brazilian Amazon. A total of eight carnivore species was successfully identified from 71% of all samples obtained. Information theoretic analysis revealed that the number of PCR attempts before a successful sequence was an important negative predictor across all three responses (success of species identification, success of species identification from the first sequence and PCR amplification success), whereas the relative importance of the other three predictors (sample condition, season and distance from forest edge) varied between the three responses. Nuclear microsatellite amplification from jaguar faeces had lower success rates (15-44%) compared with those of the mtDNA marker. Our results show that DNA obtained from faecal samples works efficiently for carnivore species identification in the Amazon forest and also shows potential for nuclear DNA analysis, thus providing a valuable tool for genetic, ecological and conservation studies.

Carnivore mammals in a fragmented landscape in northeast of Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Sao Paulo is the most developed state in Brazil and little of its native vegetation remains. In Luiz Antonio and Santa Rita do Passa Quatro municipalities, only small fragments of cerrado (Brazilian savanna) physiognomies (cerrado, cerrado sensu stricto) and of semideciduous forest have been left, surrounded by eucalyptus silviculture and sugar-cane agriculture. However, that vegetation mosaic still shelters large mammals, including several carnivore species. To detect the carnivores present in such a mosaic area (50,000 ha), and to find out how they use the landscape, we recorded them through 21 camera traps and 21 track plots, during 18 months. Species richness, diversity and relative frequency were evaluated according to the habitat. Ten species were recorded, some of them locally threatened to extinction (Puma concolor, Leopardus pardalis, Chrysocyon brachyurus). Species diversity did not significantly differ among fragments, and although most species preferred one or another habitat, the carnivore community as a whole explored all the study area regardless of the vegetation cover;eucalyptus plantations were as used by the carnivores as the native fragments. Therefore, it seems possible to maintain such animals in agricultural landscapes, where some large native fragments are left and the matrix is permeable to native fauna.

Successful carnivore identification with faecal DNA across a fragmented Amazonian landscape

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Contribution of woody habitat islands to the conservation of birds and their potential ecosystem services in an extensive Colombian rangeland

The conservation of birds and their habitats is essential to maintain well-functioning ecosystems including human-dominated habitats. In simplified or homogenized landscapes, patches of natural and semi-natural habitat are essential for the survival of plant and animal populations. We compared species composition and diversity of trees and birds between gallery forests, tree islands and hedges in a Colombian savanna landscape to assess how fragmented woody plant communities affect forest bird communities and how differences in habitat characteristics influenced bird species traits and their potential ecosystem function. Bird and tree diversity was higher in forests than in tree islands and hedges. Soil depth influenced woody species distribution, and canopy cover and tree height determined bird species distribution, resulting in plant and bird communities that mainly differed between forest and non-forest habitat. Bird and tree species and traits widely co-varied. Bird species in tree islands and hedges were on average smaller, less specialized to habitat and more tolerant to disturbance than in forest, but dietary differences did not emerge. Despite being less complex and diverse than forests, hedges and tree islands significantly contribute to the conservation of forest biodiversity in the savanna matrix. Forest fragments remain essential for the conservation of forest specialists, but hedges and tree islands facilitate spillover of more tolerant forest birds and their ecological functions such as seed dispersal from forest to the savanna matrix.

Genetic diversity and population structure of Tasmanian devils, the largest marsupial carnivore

Genetic diversity and population structure were investigated across the core range of Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus laniarius; Dasyuridae), a wide-ranging marsupial carnivore restricted to the island of Tasmania. Heterozygosity (0.386-0.467) and allelic diversity (2.7-3.3) were low in all subpopulations and allelic size ranges were small and almost continuous, consistent with a founder effect. Island effects and repeated periods of low population density may also have contributed to the low variation. Within continuous habitat, gene flow appears extensive up to 50 km (high assignment rates to source or close neighbour populations; nonsignificant values of pairwise F-ST), in agreement with movement data. At larger scales (150-250 km), gene flow is reduced (significant pairwise F-ST) but there is no evidence for isolation by distance. The most substantial genetic structuring was observed for comparisons spanning unsuitable habitat, implying limited dispersal of devils between the well-connected, eastern populations and a smaller northwestern population. The genetic distinctiveness of the northwestern population was reflected in all analyses: unique alleles; multivariate analyses of gene frequency (multidimensional scaling, minimum spanning tree, nearest neighbour); high self-assignment (95%); two distinct populations for Tasmania were detected in isolation by distance and in Bayesian model-based clustering analyses. Marsupial carnivores appear to have stronger population subdivisions than their placental counterparts.

The effects of habitat fragmentation due to forestry plantation establishment on the demography and genetic variation of a marsupial carnivore, Antechinus agilis

We conducted a demographic and genetic study to investigate the effects of fragmentation due to the establishment of an exotic softwood plantation on populations of a small marsupial carnivore, the agile antechinus (Antechinus agilis), and the factors influencing the persistence of those populations in the fragmented habitat. The first aspect of the study was a descriptive analysis of patch occupancy and population size, in which we found a patch occupancy rate of 70% among 23 sites in the fragmented habitat compared to 100% among 48 sites with the same habitat characteristics in unfragmented habitat. Mark-recapture analyses yielded most-likely population size estimates of between 3 and 85 among the 16 occupied patches in the fragmented habitat. Hierarchical partitioning and model selection were used to identify geographic and habitat-related characteristics that influence patch occupancy and population size. Patch occupancy was primarily influenced by geographic isolation and habitat quality (vegetation basal area). The variance in population size among occupied sites was influenced primarily by forest type (dominant Eucalyptus species) and, to a lesser extent, by patch area and topographic context (gully sites had larger populations). A comparison of the sex ratios between the samples from the two habitat contexts revealed a significant deficiency of males in the fragmented habitat. We hypothesise that this is due to male-biased dispersal in an environment with increased dispersal-associated mortality. The population size and sex ratio data were incorporated into a simulation study to estimate the proportion of genetic diversity that would have been lost over the known timescale since fragmentation if the patch populations had been totally isolated. The observed difference in genetic diversity (gene diversity and allelic richness at microsatellite and mitochondrial markers) between 16 fragmented and 12 unfragmented sites was extremely low and inconsistent with the isolation of the patch populations. Our results show that although the remnant habitat patches comprise approximately 2% of the study area, they can support non-isolated populations. However, the distribution of agile antechinus populations in the fragmented system is dependent on habitat quality and patch connectivity. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of Coarse-resolution models of species' distributions to guide local conservation inferences

Distribution models are used increasingly for species conservation assessments over extensive areas, but the spatial resolution of the modeled data and, consequently, of the predictions generated directly from these models are usually too coarse for local conservation applications. Comprehensive distribution data at finer spatial resolution, however, require a level of sampling that is impractical for most species and regions. Models can be downscaled to predict distribution at finer resolutions, but this increases uncertainty because the predictive ability of models is not necessarily consistent beyond their original scale. We analyzed the performance of downscaled, previously published models of environmental favorability (a generalized linear modeling technique) for a restricted endemic insectivore, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), and a more widespread carnivore, the Eurasian otter ( Lutra lutra), in the Iberian Peninsula. The models, built from presence–absence data at 10 × 10 km resolution, were extrapolated to a resolution 100 times finer (1 × 1 km). We compared downscaled predictions of environmental quality for the two species with published data on local observations and on important conservation sites proposed by experts. Predictions were significantly related to observed presence or absence of species and to expert selection of sampling sites and important conservation sites. Our results suggest the potential usefulness of downscaled projections of environmental quality as a proxy for expensive and time-consuming field studies when the field studies are not feasible. This method may be valid for other similar species if coarse-resolution distribution data are available to define high-quality areas at a scale that is practical for the application of concrete conservation measures

Endangerment and Likeability of Wildlife Species: How Important are they for Payments Proposed for Conservation?

This paper examines empirically the relative influence of the degree of endangerment of wildlife species and their stated likeability on individuals' allocation of funds for their conservation. To do this, it utilises data obtained from the IUCN Red List, and likeability and fund allocation data obtained from two serial surveys of a sample of the Australian public who were requested to assess 24 Australian wildlife species from three animal classes: mammals, birds and reptiles. Between the first and second survey, respondents were provided with extra information about the focal species. This information resulted in the dominance of endangerment as the major influence on the allocation of funding of respondents for the conservation of the focal wildlife species. Our results throw doubts on the proposition in the literature that the likeability of species is the dominant influence on willingness to pay for conservation of wildlife species. Furthermore, because the public's allocation of fund for conserving wildlife species seems to be more sensitive to information about the conservation status of species than to factors influencing their likeability, greater attention to providing accurate information about the former than the latter seems justified. Keywords: Conservation of wildlife species; Contingent valuation; Endangerment of species; Likeability of species; Willingness to pay