The effect of candidate quality on electoral equilibrium: an experimental study

When two candidates of different quality compete in a one dimensional policy space, the equilibrium outcomes are asymmetric and do not correspond to the median. There are three main effects. First, the better candidate adopts more centrist policies than the worse candidate. Second, the equilibrium is statistical, in the sense that it predicts a probability distribution of outcomes rather than a single degenerate outcome. Third, the equilibrium varies systematically with the level of uncertainty about the location of the median voter. We test these three predictions using laboratory experiments, and find strong support for all three. We also observe some biases and show that they canbe explained by quantal response equilibrium.

Candidate quality in a Downsian Model with a continuous policy space

This paper characterizes a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium in a one-dimensional Downsian model of two-candidate elections with a continuous policy space, where candidates are office motivated and one candidate enjoys a non-policy advantage over the other candidate. We assume that voters have quadratic preferences over policies and that their ideal points are drawn from a uniform distribution over the unit interval. In our equilibrium the advantaged candidate chooses the expected median voter with probability one and the disadvantaged candidate uses a mixed strategy that is symmetric around it. We show that this equilibrium exists if the number of voters is large enough relative to the size of the advantage.

Candidate Quality and Voter Response in U.S. House Elections

We propose and test the implications of a two-dimensional concept of candidate quality in U.S. House elections. Strategic quality is composed of the skills and resources necessary to wage an effective campaign; personal quality is composed of the characteristics most ordinary citizens value in their leaders and representatives, such as personal integrity and dedication to public service. We employ district informants in studies of the 1998 and 2002 congressional elections to measure these qualities in candidates, and we merge mass survey data with the district informant indicators to assess constituents’ awareness and evaluation of House candidates, and voting choice. We find that awareness tends to be responsive to candidates’ strategic quality, and that incumbent evaluation is remarkably responsive to variation in personal quality, even taking into account the quality of challenger emergence. These and other findings appear to support a more positive view of citizen capacity than is common in the congressional elections literature, especially in light of the electoral security of House incumbents.

Mixed equilibrium in a Downsian model with a favored candidate

This paper examines competition in the standard one-dimensional Downsian model of two-candidate elections, but where one candidate (A) enjoys an advantage over the other candidate (D). Voters' preferences are Euclidean, but any voter will vote for candidate A over candidate D unless D is closer to her ideal point by some fixed distance \delta. The location of the median voter's ideal point is uncertain, and its distribution is commonly known by both candidates. The candidates simultaneously choose locations to maximize the probability of victory. Pure strategy equilibria often fails to exist in this model, except under special conditions about \delta and the distribution of the median ideal point. We solve for the essentially unique symmetric mixed equilibrium, show that candidate A adopts more moderate policies than candidate D, and obtain some comparative statics results about the probability of victory and the expected distance between the two candidates' policies.

The informational value of incumbency

This paper proposes an argument that explains incumbency advantage without recurring to the collective irresponsibility of legislatures. For that purpose, we exploit the informational value of incumbency: incumbency confers voters information about governing politicians not available from challengers. Because there are many reasons for high reelection rates different from incumbency status, we propose a measure of incumbency advantage that improves the use of pure reelection success. We also study the relationship between incumbency advantage and ideological and selection biases. An important implication of our analysis is that the literature linking incumbency and legislature irresponsibility most likely provides an overestimation of the latter.

Les admissions hospitalières pour les infections urinaires: tendances temporelles, fardeau économique et facteurs prédicateurs de mauvaise évolution des patients

Résumé Introduction: Les infections urinaires (IU) sont les infections bactériennes les plus fréquentes chez les patients hospitalisés. Cette étude décrit les tendances temporelles d'admission et de mortalité liées aux hospitalisations pour les IU, ainsi que le fardeau économique associé. Les prédicteurs de mauvaise évolution clinique et de mortalité sont examinés par la suite. Méthodes: Les données ont été extraites à partir de la base de données du NIS entre le 1er janvier 1998 et le 31 décembre 2010. 1,717,181 hospitalisations liées aux IU ont été retenues. L'incidence et la mortalité ont été calculées et stratifiées selon le sexe, l'âge et la présence de sepsis. Les frais médians et totaux pour les hospitalisations sont calculés et ajustés pour l'inflation. Finalement, les prédicteurs d'avoir un sepsis induit par les IU et de mortalité sont examinés avec une analyse par régression logistique multivariée. Résultats: L'incidence globale d'hospitalisation et la mortalité associées aux IU voit une croissance annuel estimé (EAPC) de +4.764 et +4.610 respectivement (p<0.0001). L'augmentation d'incidence est le plus marquée pour les patients âgés de 55 à 64 ans (EAPC = +7.805; p<0.0001). Les frais médians par hospitalisation ont augmenté de $10 313 en 1998 à $21 049 en 2010 (EAPC +9.405; p<0.0001). Les frais globaux pour les hospitalisations des IU ont augmenté de $8.9 milliard en 1998 à $33.7 milliard en 2010 (EAPC +0.251; p<0.0001). Les patients âgés, de sexe masculin, de race afro-américaine, ainsi que les patients assurés par Medicaid ou ceux sans assurance, et les patients soignés à des centres non-académiques sont à risque plus important de mortalité (p<0.0001). Conclusion: L'incidence et la mortalité associées aux IU ont augmenté au cours de la dernière décennie. Les frais médians ajustés pour l'inflation ainsi que les frais globaux ont augmenté progressivement au cours de la période d'étude. Dans la cohorte étudiée, les patients âgés, de sexe masculin, de race afro-américaine, ainsi que les patients assurés par Medicaid ou ceux sans assurance, et les patients soignés à des centres non-académiques sont à risque plus important de mortalité. Ces données représentent des indicateurs de qualité de soins qui pourraient permettre d'adapter certaines politiques de soins de santé aux besoins des sous-populations plus vulnérables.

Spatial competition between two candidates of different quality: the effects of candidate ideology and private information

This paper examines competition in a spatial model of two-candidate elections, where one candidate enjoys a quality advantage over the other candidate. The candidates care about winning and also have policy preferences. There is two-dimensional private information. Candidate ideal points as well as their tradeoffs between policy preferences and winning are private information. The distribution of this two-dimensional type is common knowledge. The location of the median voter's ideal point is uncertain, with a distribution that is commonly known by both candidates. Pure strategy equilibria always exist in this model. We characterize the effects of increased uncertainty about the median voter, the effect of candidate policy preferences, and the effects of changes in the distribution of private information. We prove that the distribution of candidate policies approaches the mixed equilibrium of Aragones and Palfrey (2002a), when both candidates' weights on policy preferences go to zero.

Polymorphisms in candidate genes and their association with carcass traits and meat quality in Nellore cattle

The objective of this work was to estimate the allele polymorphism frequencies of genes in Nellore cattle and associate them with meat quality and carcass traits. Six hundred males were genotyped for the following polymorphisms: DGAT1 (VNTR with 18 nucleotides at the promoter region); ANK1, a new polymorphism, identified and mapped here at the gene regulatory region NW_001494427.3; TCAP (AY428575.1:g.346G>A); and MYOG (NW_001501985:g.511G>C). In the association study, phenotype data of hot carcass weight, ribeye area, backfat thickness, percentage of intramuscular fat, shear force, myofibrillar fragmentation index, meat color (L*, a*, b*), and cooking losses were used. Allele B from the ANK1 gene was associated with greater redness (a*). Alleles 5R, 6R, and 7R from the DGAT1 VNTR gene were associated with increased intramuscular fat, reduced cooking losses and increased ribeye area, respectively. The single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) of the TCAP gene was not polymorphic, and MYOG alleles were not associated with any of the evaluated characteristics. These results indicate that ANK1 and DGAT1 genes can be used in the selection of Nellore cattle for carcass and meat quality.

A novel transcriptomic approach to identify candidate genes for grain quality traits in wheat

A novel methodology is described in which transcriptomics is combined with the measurement of bread-making quality and other agronomic traits for wheat genotypes grown in different environments (wet and cool or hot and dry conditions) to identify transcripts associated with these traits. Seven doubled haploid lines from the Spark x Rialto mapping population were selected to be matched for development and known alleles affecting quality. These were grown in polytunnels with different environments applied 14 days post-anthesis, and the whole experiment was repeated over 2 years. Transcriptomics using the wheat Affymetrix chip was carried out on whole caryopsis samples at two stages during grain filling. Transcript abundance was correlated with the traits for approximately 400 transcripts. About 30 of these were selected as being of most interest, and markers were derived from them and mapped using the population. Expression was identified as being under cis control for 11 of these and under trans control for 18. These transcripts are candidates for involvement in the biological processes which underlie genotypic variation in these traits.

Identification and association of polymorphisms in CAPN1 and CAPN3 candidate genes related to performance and meat quality traits in chickens

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Polymorphisms in candidate genes and their association with carcass traits and meat quality in Nellore cattle

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A candidate gene approach to identify DNA markers associated with meat quality and production traits: investigation of several cathepsin genes in Italian heavy pigs.

The cathepsin enzymes represent an important family of lysosomal proteinases with a broad spectrum of functions in many, if not in all, tissues and cell types. In addition to their primary role during the normal protein turnover, they possess highly specific proteolytic activities, including antigen processing in the immune response and a direct role in the development of obesity and tumours. In pigs, the involvement of cathepsin enzymes in proteolytic processes have important effects during the conversion of muscle to meat, due to their influence on meat texture and sensory characteristics, mainly in seasoned products. Their contribution is fundamental in flavour development of dry-curing hams. However, several authors have demonstrated that high cathepsin activity, in particular of cathepsin B, is correlated to defects of these products, such as an excessive meat softness together with abnormal free tyrosine content, astringent or metallic aftertastes and formation of a white film on the cut surface. Thus, investigation of their genetic variability could be useful to identify DNA markers associated with these dry cured hams parameters, but also with meat quality, production and carcass traits in Italian heavy pigs. Unfortunately, no association has been found between cathepsin markers and meat quality traits so far, in particular with cathepsin B activity, suggesting that other genes, besides these, affect meat quality parameters. Nevertheless, significant associations were observed with several carcass and production traits in pigs. A recent study has demonstrated that different single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) localized in cathepsin D (CTSD), F (CTSF), H and Z genes were highly associated with growth, fat deposition and production traits in an Italian Large White pig population. The aim of this thesis was to confirm some of these results in other pig populations and identify new cathepsin markers in order to evaluate their effects on cathepsin activity and other production traits. Furthermore, starting from the data obtained in previous studies on CTSD gene, we also analyzed the known polymorphism located in the insulin-like growth factor 2 gene (IGF2 intron3-g.3072G>A). This marker is considered the causative mutation for the quantitative trait loci (QTL) affecting muscle mass and fat deposition in pigs. Since IGF2 maps very close to CTSD on porcine chromosome (SSC) 2, we wanted to clarify if the effects of the CTSD marker were due to linkage disequilibrium with the IGF2 intron3-g.3072G>A mutation or not. In the first chapter, we reported the results from these two SSC2 gene markers. First of all, we evaluated the effects of the IGF2 intron3-g.3072G>A polymorphism in the Italian Large White breed, for which no previous studies have analysed this marker. Highly significant associations were identified with all estimated breeding values for production and carcass traits (P<0.00001), while no effects were observed for meat quality traits. Instead, the IGF2 intron3-g.3072G>A mutation did not show any associations with the analyzed traits in the Italian Duroc pigs, probably due to the low level of variability at this polymorphic site for this breed. In the same Duroc pig population, significant associations were obtained for the CTSD marker for all production and carcass traits (P < 0.001), after excluding possible confounding effects of the IGF2 mutation. The effects of the CTSD g.70G>A polymorphism were also confirmed in a group of Italian Large White pigs homozygous for the IGF2 intron3-g.3072G allele G (IGF2 intron3-g.3072GG) and by haplotype analysis between the markers of the two considered genes. Taken together, all these data indicated that the IGF2 intron3-g.3072G>A mutation is not the only polymorphism affecting fatness and muscle deposition in pigs. In the second chapter, we reported the analysis of two new SNPs identified in cathepsin L (CTSL) and cathepsin S (CTSS) genes and the association results with meat quality parameters (including cathepsin B activity) and several production traits in an Italian Large White pig population. Allele frequencies of these two markers were evaluated in 7 different pig breeds. Furthermore, we mapped using a radiation hybrid panel the CTSS gene on SSC4. Association studies with several production traits, carried out in 268 Italian Large White pigs, indicated positive effects of the CTSL polymorphism on average daily gain, weight of lean cuts and backfat thickness (P<0.05). The results for these latter traits were also confirmed using a selective genotype approach in other Italian Large White pigs (P<0.01). In the 268 pig group, the CTSS polymorphism was associated with feed:gain ratio and average daily gain (P<0.05). Instead, no association was observed between the analysed markers and meat quality parameters. Finally, we wanted to verify if the positive results obtained for the cathepsin L and S markers and for other previous identified SNPs (cathepsin F, cathepsin Z and their inhibitor cystatin B) were confirmed in the Italian Duroc pig breed (third chapter). We analysed them in two groups of Duroc pigs: the first group was made of 218 performance-tested pigs not selected by any phenotypic criteria, the second group was made of 100 Italian Duroc pigs extreme and divergent for visible intermuscular fat trait. In the first group, the CTSL polymorphism was associated with weight of lean cuts (P<0.05), while suggestive associations were obtained for average daily gain and backfat thickness (P<0.10). Allele frequencies of the CTSL gene marker also differed positively among the visible intermuscular extreme tails. Instead, no positive effects were observed for the other DNA markers on the analysed traits. In conclusion, in agreement with the present data and for the biological role of these enzymes, the porcine CTSD and CTSL markers: a) may have a direct effect in the biological mechanisms involved in determining fat and lean meat content in pigs, or b) these markers could be very close to the putative functional mutation(s) present in other genes. These findings have important practical applications, in particular the CTSD and CTSL mutations could be applied in a marker assisted selection (MAS) both in the Italian Large White and Italian Duroc breeds. Marker assisted selection could also increase in efficiency by adding information from the cathepsin S genotype, but only in the Italian Large White breed.

Different approaches to identify markers for meat quality and production traits in pigs: analysis of the transcriptome in post mortem skeletal muscle and investigation of candidate genes

Due to the growing attention of consumers towards their food, improvement of quality of animal products has become one of the main focus of research. To this aim, the application of modern molecular genetics approaches has been proved extremely useful and effective. This innovative drive includes all livestock species productions, including pork. The Italian pig breeding industry is unique because needs heavy pigs slaughtered at about 160 kg for the production of high quality processed products. For this reason, it requires precise meat quality and carcass characteristics. Two aspects have been considered in this thesis: the application of the transcriptome analysis in post mortem pig muscles as a possible method to evaluate meat quality parameters related to the pre mortem status of the animals, including health, nutrition, welfare, and with potential applications for product traceability (chapters 3 and 4); the study of candidate genes for obesity related traits in order to identify markers associated with fatness in pigs that could be applied to improve carcass quality (chapters 5, 6, and 7). Chapter three addresses the first issue from a methodological point of view. When we considered this issue, it was not obvious that post mortem skeletal muscle could be useful for transcriptomic analysis. Therefore we demonstrated that the quality of RNA extracted from skeletal muscle of pigs sampled at different post mortem intervals (20 minutes, 2 hours, 6 hours, and 24 hours) is good for downstream applications. Degradation occurred starting from 48 h post mortem even if at this time it is still possible to use some RNA products. In the fourth chapter, in order to demonstrate the potential use of RNA obtained up to 24 hours post mortem, we present the results of RNA analysis with the Affymetrix microarray platform that made it possible to assess the level of expression of more of 24000 mRNAs. We did not identify any significant differences between the different post mortem times suggesting that this technique could be applied to retrieve information coming from the transcriptome of skeletal muscle samples not collected just after slaughtering. This study represents the first contribution of this kind applied to pork. In the fifth chapter, we investigated as candidate for fat deposition the TBC1D1 [TBC1 (tre-2/USP6, BUB2, cdc16) gene. This gene is involved in mechanisms regulating energy homeostasis in skeletal muscle and is associated with predisposition to obesity in humans. By resequencing a fragment of the TBC1D1 gene we identified three synonymous mutations localized in exon 2 (g.40A>G, g.151C>T, and g.172T>C) and 2 polymorphisms localized in intron 2 (g.219G>A and g.252G>A). One of these polymorphisms (g.219G>A) was genotyped by high resolution melting (HRM) analysis and PCR-RFLP. Moreover, this gene sequence was mapped by radiation hybrid analysis on porcine chromosome 8. The association study was conducted in 756 performance tested pigs of Italian Large White and Italian Duroc breeds. Significant results were obtained for lean meat content, back fat thickness, visible intermuscular fat and ham weight. In chapter six, a second candidate gene (tribbles homolog 3, TRIB3) is analyzed in a study of association with carcass and meat quality traits. The TRIB3 gene is involved in energy metabolism of skeletal muscle and plays a role as suppressor of adipocyte differentiation. We identified two polymorphisms in the first coding exon of the porcine TRIB3 gene, one is a synonymous SNP (c.132T> C), a second is a missense mutation (c.146C> T, p.P49L). The two polymorphisms appear to be in complete linkage disequilibrium between and within breeds. The in silico analysis of the p.P49L substitution suggests that it might have a functional effect. The association study in about 650 pigs indicates that this marker is associated with back fat thickness in Italian Large White and Italian Duroc breeds in two different experimental designs. This polymorphisms is also associated with lactate content of muscle semimembranosus in Italian Large White pigs. Expression analysis indicated that this gene is transcribed in skeletal muscle and adipose tissue as well as in other tissues. In the seventh chapter, we reported the genotyping results for of 677 SNPs in extreme divergent groups of pigs chosen according to the extreme estimated breeding values for back fat thickness. SNPs were identified by resequencing, literature mining and in silico database mining. analysis, data reported in the literature of 60 candidates genes for obesity. Genotyping was carried out using the GoldenGate (Illumina) platform. Of the analyzed SNPs more that 300 were polymorphic in the genotyped population and had minor allele frequency (MAF) >0.05. Of these SNPs, 65 were associated (P<0.10) with back fat thickness. One of the most significant gene marker was the same TBC1D1 SNPs reported in chapter 5, confirming the role of this gene in fat deposition in pig. These results could be important to better define the pig as a model for human obesity other than for marker assisted selection to improve carcass characteristics.

Candidate genes affecting fat deposition, carcass composition and meat quality traits in pigs

Pig meat quality is determined by several parameters, such as lipid content, tenderness, water-holding capacity, pH, color and flavor, that affect consumers’ acceptance and technological properties of meat. Carcass quality parameters are important for the production of fresh and dry-cure high-quality products, in particular the fat deposition and the lean cut yield. The identification of genes and markers associated with meat and carcass quality traits is of prime interest, for the possibility of improving the traits by marker-assisted selection (MAS) schemes. Therefore, the aim of this thesis was to investigate seven candidate genes for meat and carcass quality traits in pigs. In particular, we focused on genes belonging to the family of the lipid droplet coat proteins perilipins (PLIN1 and PLIN2) and to the calpain/calpastatin system (CAST, CAPN1, CAPN3, CAPNS1) and on the gene encoding for PPARg-coactivator 1A (PPARGC1A). In general, the candidate genes investigation included the protein localization, the detection of polymorphisms, the association analysis with meat and carcass traits and the analysis of the expression level, in order to assess the involvement of the gene in pork quality. Some of the analyzed genes showed effects on various pork traits that are subject to selection in genetic improvement programs, suggesting a possible involvement of the genes in controlling the traits variability. In particular, significant association results have been obtained for PLIN2, CAST and PPARGC1A genes, that are worthwhile of further validation. The obtained results contribute to a better understanding of biological mechanisms important for pig production as well as for a possible use of pig as animal model for studies regarding obesity in humans.

Validation of candidate smear microscopy quality indicators, extracted from tuberculosis laboratory registers

SETTING: Kinshasa Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. OBJECTIVE: To identify and validate register-based indicators of acid-fast bacilli (AFB) microscopy quality. DESIGN: Selection of laboratories based on reliability and variation in routine smear rechecking results. Calculation of relative sensitivity (RS) compared to recheckers and its correlation coefficient (R) with candidate indicators based on a fully probabilistic analysis incorporating vague prior information using WinBUGS. RESULTS: The proportion of positive follow-up smears correlated well (median R 0.81, 95% credibility interval [CI] 0.58-0.93), and the proportion of first smear-positive cases fairly (median R 0.70, 95% CI 0.38-0.89) with RS. The proportions of both positive suspect and low positive case smears showed poor correlations (median R 0.27 and -0.22, respectively, with ranges including zero). CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of positives in follow-up smears is the most promising indicator of AFB smear sensitivity, while the proportion of positive suspects may be more indicative of accessibility and suspect selection. Both can be obtained from simple reports, and should be used for internal and external monitoring and as guidance for supervision. As proportion of low positive suspect smears and consistency within case series are more difficult to interpret, they should be used only on-site by laboratory professionals. All indicators require more research to define their optimal range in various settings.