Business busts and U.S. auditors' interest in fraud detection: Evidence from the 20th century

We find evidence that U.S. auditors increased their attention to fraud detection during or immediately after the economic contractions of the 20th century, based on a content analysis of the 12 volumes of the 20th-century auditing reference series Montgomery’s Auditing. Contractions, however, do not seem to have affected auditors’ attention to the formal goal of fraud detection. The study suggests that auditors’ aversion to the heightened risks of fraud during economic downturns leads them to focus more on fraud detection at those times regardless of the particular guidance in formal audit standards. This study is the first to find some evidence of a recession-influenced difference between fraud detection practices and formal fraud detection goals.

Booms and busts in commodity markets: bubbles or fundamentals?

This paper considers whether there were periodically collapsing rational speculative bubbles in commodity prices over a 40-year period from the late 1960s. We apply a switching regression approach to a broad range of commodities using two different measures of fundamental values—estimated from convenience yields and from a set of macroeconomic factors believed to affect commodity demand. We find reliable evidence for bubbles only among crude oil and feeder cattle, showing the popular belief that the extreme price movements observed in commodity markets were caused by pure speculation to be unsustainable

Baby boomers and property busts

In the latter half of the 20th century the baby boom generation created an increased demand for many aspects of society including education, housing and medical services. Only now are the negative aspects resulting from this unique demand being fully considered. One of the most important issues is the impact on residential housing values which directly or indirectly affects most residents whether owning, buying or renting.
The relationship between the ageing of the baby boomers and housing values is a current topic of debate throughout the world. Particularly in the U.S.A. warnings have been sounded of a dramatic decrease in property values causing a property bust as the baby boomers move into the older generation.
This paper revisits the baby boom generation and discusses previous research in the worldwide debate concerning their impact on housing values. The status of the Australian baby boomers is examined and the future impact on residential house values in Australia is contemplated.

Historical and descriptive catalogue of the pictures, busts, &c. in the National portrait gallery ... /

Introduction signed by Lionel Cust.

Historical and descriptive catalogue of the pictures, busts, &c. in the National Portrait gallery ...

Mode of access: Internet.

Historical and descriptive catalogue of the pictures, busts, &c. in the National Portrait Gallery.

Introduction signed by Lionel Cust.

Historical and descriptive catalogue of the pictures, busts, &c. in the National Portrait Gallery ...

Introduction signed by Lionel Cust.

Commentary on the Models and Busts Act 1798

The first occasion on which British copyright law provided protection for a medium other than print. The legislation conferred exclusive rights lasting 14 years on persons who created new models or casts of human or animal figures.
The commentary describes the background to the Act, in particular the lobbying efforts of the artist and sculptor George Garrard, as well as the subsequent case-law, highlighting flaws in the drafting that lead to a further act in 1814. The commentary argues that while the 1798 Act is pre-modern, in the sense of having a reactive and subject-specific remit, by severing copyright from its print basis, the Act paved the way for the emergence of the modern image of copyright as concerned with the promotion of ‘art and literature'.

Crop

Solo exhibition of sculptural works that use the portrait bust as a vehicle for problematising notions of subjectivity, authority and representation. The exhibition comprised three life-sized figurative busts, each portraits of the artist, sparsely positioned throughout the gallery space to convey a sense of isolation and abandonment. By emphasising the fragmented nature of the bust format by removal of all supports (ie. Socle, plinth or alcove) the works sought to address the vulnerability that frmes this apparently authoritative Enlightenment portrait format. In so doing the exhibition aimed to offer, by example, a new way of seeing and interpreting the portrait bust in history. The exhibition was exhibited at the Institute of Modern Art (Brisbane) and the Perth Institute of Contemporary Arts. Works fro the exhibition were included in group shows at Linden Centre for Contemporary Arts, Ballarat Fine Art Gallery. Work from the exhibition was purchased for the collection of MONA, Hobart.The exhibition received favourable reviews in Eyeline, Art and Australia and Machine magazines.

Bubble geometry and chaotic pricing behaviour

This paper is a deductive theoretical enquiry into the flow of effects from the geometry of price bubbles/busts, to price indices, to pricing behaviours of sellers and buyers, and back to price bubbles/busts. The intent of the analysis is to suggest analytical approaches to identify the presence, maturity, and/or sustainability of a price bubble. We present a pricing model to emulate market behaviour, including numeric examples and charts of the interaction of supply and demand. The model extends into dynamic market solutions myopic (single- and multi-period) backward looking rational expectations to demonstrate how buyers and sellers interact to affect supply and demand and to show how capital gain expectations can be a destabilising influence – i.e. the lagged effects of past price gains can drive the market price away from long-run market-worth. Investing based on the outputs of past price-based valuation models appear to be more of a game-of-chance than a sound investment strategy.

Drug law enforcement : a review of the evaluation literature

This article describes the results of a systematic review of drug law enforcement evaluations. The authors describe the search procedures and document the results in five main categories: international/national interventions (e.g., interdiction and drug seizure), reactive/ directed interventions (e.g., crackdowns, raids, buy-busts, saturation patrol, etc.), proactive/ partnership interventions (e.g., third-party policing, problem-oriented policing, community policing, drug nuisance abatement, etc.), individualized interventions (e.g., arrest referral and diversion), or interventions that used a combination of reactive/directed and proactive/ partnership strategies. Results indicate that proactive interventions involving partnerships between the police and third parties and/or community entities appear to be more effective at reducing both drug and nondrug problems in drug problem places than are reactive/ directed approaches. But the general quality of research in drug law enforcement is poor, the range of interventions that have been evaluated is limited, and more high-quality research is needed across a greater variety of drug interventions.

Memoirs 1920-1960

Education as artist in "Odenwaldschule" and Oberammergau; return to Berlin and studies in the "Kunstgewerbeschule"; emigration to Paris in 1933; artist circle including Max Ernst; flight to Switzerland in 1942; busts of Pablo Casals and Emil Ludwig; emigration to New York; bust of Bruno Walter.

On approximate electromagnetic cloaking by transformation media

We give a comprehensive study on regularized approximate electromagnetic cloaking in the spherical geometry via the transformation optics approach. The following aspects are investigated: (i) near-invisibility cloaking of passive media as well as active/radiating sources; (ii) the existence of cloak-busting inclusions without lossy medium lining; (iii) overcoming the cloaking-busts by employing a lossy layer outside the cloaked region; and (iv) the frequency dependence of the cloaking performances. We address these issues and connect the obtained asymptotic results to singular ideal cloaking. Numerical verifications and demonstrations are provided to show the sharpness of our analytical study.

Towards improving the framework for probabilistic forecast evaluation

The evaluation of forecast performance plays a central role both in the interpretation and use of forecast systems and in their development. Different evaluation measures (scores) are available, often quantifying different characteristics of forecast performance. The properties of several proper scores for probabilistic forecast evaluation are contrasted and then used to interpret decadal probability hindcasts of global mean temperature. The Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), Proper Linear (PL) score, and IJ Good’s logarithmic score (also referred to as Ignorance) are compared; although information from all three may be useful, the logarithmic score has an immediate interpretation and is not insensitive to forecast busts. Neither CRPS nor PL is local; this is shown to produce counter intuitive evaluations by CRPS. Benchmark forecasts from empirical models like Dynamic Climatology place the scores in context. Comparing scores for forecast systems based on physical models (in this case HadCM3, from the CMIP5 decadal archive) against such benchmarks is more informative than internal comparison systems based on similar physical simulation models with each other. It is shown that a forecast system based on HadCM3 out performs Dynamic Climatology in decadal global mean temperature hindcasts; Dynamic Climatology previously outperformed a forecast system based upon HadGEM2 and reasons for these results are suggested. Forecasts of aggregate data (5-year means of global mean temperature) are, of course, narrower than forecasts of annual averages due to the suppression of variance; while the average “distance” between the forecasts and a target may be expected to decrease, little if any discernible improvement in probabilistic skill is achieved.