Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

Let them bloom : Growing colourful citizens with caring classroom teachers

This paper examines the essential qualities of a good classroom teacher. The analogy of a caring gardener who understands the individual growing needs of a vast variety of plants is used. The paper argues for the freedom to have differing non-sectarian curricula and for trust to be placed in the teaching profession.

A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

First Report of a Toxic Nodularia spumigena (Nostocales/Cyanobacteria) Bloom in Sub-Tropical Australia. II. Bioaccumulation of Nodularin in Isolated Populations of Mullet (Mugilidae)

Fish collected after a mass mortality at an artificial lake in south-east Queensland, Australia, were examined for the presence of nodularin as the lake had earlier been affected by a Nodularia bloom. Methanol extracts of muscle, liver, peritoneal and stomach contents were analysed by HPLC and tandem mass spectrometry; histological examination was conducted on livers from captured mullet. Livers of sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) involved in the fish kill contained high concentrations of nodularin (median 43.6 mg/kg, range 40.8-47.8 mg/kg dry weight; n = 3) and the toxin was also present in muscle tissue (median 44.0 mu g/kg, range 32.3-56.8 mu g/kg dry weight). Livers of fish occupying higher trophic levels accumulated much lower concentrations. Mullet captured from the lake 10 months later were also found to have high hepatic nodularin levels. DNA sequencing of mullet specimens revealed two species inhabiting the study lake: M. cephalus and an unidentified mugilid. The two mullet species appear to differ in their exposure and/or uptake of nodularin, with M. cephalus demonstrating higher tissue concentrations. The feeding ecology of mullet would appear to explain the unusual capacity of these fish to concentrate nodularin in their livers; these findings may have public health implications for mullet fisheries and aquaculture production where toxic cyanobacteria blooms affect source waters. This report incorporates a systematic review of the literature on nodularin measured in edible fish, shellfish and crustaceans.

The role of phosphorus as a regulator of bloom-forming diazotrophic cyanobacteria in the Baltic Sea

Eutrophication favours harmful algal blooms worldwide. The blooms cause toxic outbreaks and deteriorated recreational and aesthetic values, causing both economic loss and illness or death of humans and animals. The Baltic Sea is the world s only large brackish water habitat with recurrent blooms of toxic cyanobacteria capable of biological fixation of atmospheric nitrogen gas. Phosphorus is assumed to be the main limiting factor, along with temperature and light, for the growth of these cyanobacteria. This thesis evaluated the role of phosphorus nutrition as a regulating factor for the occurrence of nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria blooms in the Baltic Sea, utilising experimental laboratory and field studies and surveys on varying spatial scales. Cellular phosphorus sources were found to be able to support substantial growth of the two main bloom forming species Aphanizomenon sp. and Nodularia spumigena. However, N. spumigena growth seemed independent of phosphorus source, whereas, Aphanizomenon sp. grew best in a phosphate enriched environment. Apparent discrepancies with field observations and experiments are explained by the typical seasonal temperature dependent development of Aphanizomenon sp. and N. spumigena biomass allowing the two species to store ambient pre-bloom excess phosphorus in different ways. Field experiments revealed natural cyanobacteria bloom communities to be predominantly phosphorus deficient during blooms. Phosphate additions were found to increase the accumulation of phosphorus relatively most in the planktonic size fraction dominated by the nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria. Aphanizomenon sp. responded to phosphate additions whereas the phosphorus nutritive status of N. spumigena seemed independent of phosphate addition. The seasonal development of phosphorus deficiency is different for the two species with N. spumigena showing indications of phosphorus deficiency during a longer time period in the open sea. Coastal upwelling introduces phosphorus to the surface layer during nutrient deficient conditions in summer. The species-specific ability of Aphanizomenon sp. and N. spumigena to utilise phosphate enrichment of the surface layer caused by coastal upwelling was clarified. Typical bloom time vertical distributions of biomass maxima were found to render N. spumigena more susceptible to advection by surface currents caused by coastal upwellings. Aphanizomenon sp. populations residing in the seasonal thermocline were observed to be able to utilise the phosphate enrichment and a bloom was produced with a two to three week time lag subsequent to the relaxation of upwelling. Consistent high concentrations of dissolved inorganic phosphorus, caused by persistent internal loading of phosphorus, was found to be the main source of phosphorus for large-scale pelagic blooms. External loads were estimated to contribute with only a fraction of available phosphorus for open sea blooms. Remineralization of organic forms of phosphorus along with vertical mixing to the permanent halocline during winter set the level of available phosphorus for the next growth season. Events such as upwelling are important in replenishing phosphate concentrations during the nutrient deplete growth season. Autecological characteristics of the two main bloom forming species favour Aphanizomenon sp. populations in utilising the abundant excess phosphate concentrations and phosphate pulses mediated through upwelling. Whilst, N. spumigena displays predominant phosphorus limited growth mode and relies on more scarce cellular phosphorus stores and presumably dissolved organic phosphorus compounds for growth. The Baltic Sea is hypothesised to be in an inhibited state of recovery due to the extensive historical external nutrient loading, extensive internal phosphorus loading and the substantial nitrogen load caused by cyanobacteria nitrogen fixation. This state of the sea is characterised as a vicious circle .

Scalable Context-Sensitive Points-To Analysis Using Multi-Dimensional Bloom Filters

Context-sensitive points-to analysis is critical for several program optimizations. However, as the number of contexts grows exponentially, storage requirements for the analysis increase tremendously for large programs, making the analysis non-scalable. We propose a scalable flow-insensitive context-sensitive inclusion-based points-to analysis that uses a specially designed multi-dimensional bloom filter to store the points-to information. Two key observations motivate our proposal: (i) points-to information (between pointer-object and between pointer-pointer) is sparse, and (ii) moving from an exact to an approximate representation of points-to information only leads to reduced precision without affecting correctness of the (may-points-to) analysis. By using an approximate representation a multi-dimensional bloom filter can significantly reduce the memory requirements with a probabilistic bound on loss in precision. Experimental evaluation on SPEC 2000 benchmarks and two large open source programs reveals that with an average storage requirement of 4MB, our approach achieves almost the same precision (98.6%) as the exact implementation. By increasing the average memory to 27MB, it achieves precision upto 99.7% for these benchmarks. Using Mod/Ref analysis as the client, we find that the client analysis is not affected that often even when there is some loss of precision in the points-to representation. We find that the NoModRef percentage is within 2% of the exact analysis while requiring 4MB (maximum 15MB) memory and less than 4 minutes on average for the points-to analysis. Another major advantage of our technique is that it allows to trade off precision for memory usage of the analysis.

Development and collapse of an Oscillatoria bloom in Loch Leven during July 1994

During 1994, weekly spot-sampling of open water sites on Loch Leven took place from 16th March onwards. Very little difference between spot-sampling sites was observed from 16th March to 5th July. Throughout April and May there was a slow increase in levels of chlorophyll-a, followed by a rapid increase through June, reaching a maximum of 230 micrograms per litre. On 8th July there was a very rapid rise in water temperature, with a corresponding increase in dissolved oxygen and pH. At 0915 hours on 9th July there was a drop in all three variables. These changes were coincident with a marked reduction in chlorophyll-a values falling to 70 micrograms per litre on 12th July. On 16th July evidence of a resurgence of photosynthesis was observed.

Characterizing a cyanobacterial bloom in western Lake Erie using satellite imagery and meteorological data

The distribution and intensity of a bloom of the toxic cyanobacterium, Microcystis aeruginosa, in western Lake Erie was characterized using a combination of satellite ocean-color imagery, field data, and meteorological observations. The bloom was first identified by satellite on 14 August 2008 and persisted for more than 2 months. The distribution and intensity of the bloom was estimated using a satellite algorithm that is sensitive to near-surface concentrations of M. aeruginosa. Increases in both area and intensity were most pronounced for wind stress less than 0.05 Pa. Area increased while intensity did not change for wind stresses of 0.05–0.1 Pa, and both decreased for wind stress greater than 0.1 Pa. The recovery in intensity at the surface after strong wind events indicated that high wind stress mixed the bloom through the water column and that it returned to the surface once mixing stopped. This interaction is consistent with the understanding of the buoyancy of these blooms. Cloud cover (reduced light) may have a weak influence on intensity during calm conditions. While water temperature remained greater than 15°C, the bloom intensified if there were calm conditions. For water temperature less than 15°C, the bloom subsided under similar conditions. As a result, wind stress needs to be considered when interpreting satellite imagery of these blooms.

Harmful algal bloom management and response: assessment and plan

This report, "Harmful Algal Bloom Management and Response: Assessment and Plan" reviews and evaluates Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) management and response efforts, identifies current prevention, control, and mitigation programs for HABs, and presents an innovative research, event response, and infrastructure development plan for advancing the response to HABs. In December 2004, Congress enacted and the President signed into law the Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Amendments Act of 2004, (HABHRCA 2004). The reauthorization of HABHRCA acknowledged that HABs are one of the most scientifically complex and economically damaging coastal issues challenging our ability to safeguard the health of our Nation’s coastal ecosystems. The Administration further recognized the importance of HABs as a high priority national issue by specifically calling for the implementation of HABHRCA in the President’s U.S. Ocean Action Plan. HABHRCA 2004 requires four reports to assess and recommend research programs on HABs in U.S. waters. This document comprises two linked reports specifically aimed at improving HAB management and response: the Prediction and Response Report and the follow-up plan, the National Scientific Research, Development, Demonstration, and Technology Transfer (RDDTT) Plan on Reducing Impacts from Harmful Algal Blooms. This document was prepared by the Interagency Working Group on Harmful Algal Blooms, Hypoxia, and Human Health, which was chartered through the Joint Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology of the National Science and Technology Council and the Interagency Committee on Ocean Science and Resource Management Integration. This report complements and expands upon HAB-related priorities identified in Charting the Course for Ocean Science in the United States for the Next Decade: An Ocean Research Priorities Plan and Implementation Strategy, recently released by the Joint Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology. It draws from the contributions of numerous experts and stakeholders from federal, state, and local governments, academia, industry, and non-governmental organizations through direct contributions, previous reports and planning efforts, a public comment period, and a workshop convened to develop strategies for a HAB management and response plan. Given the importance of the Nation’s coastal ocean, estuaries, and inland waters to our quality of life, our culture, and the economy, it is imperative that we move forward to better understand and mitigate the impacts of HABs which threaten all of our coasts and inland waters. This report is an effort to assess the extent of federal, state and local efforts to predict and respond to HAB events and to identify opportunities for charting a way forward.

First recorded bloom of Navicula Bory in a mangrove habitat of Karachi

Discolouration of sands and other marine substrata caused by benthic diatoms have been reported by Aleem (1950) Eaton and Moss (1975), Sullivan (1980), Maple (1983), Navarro (1983) and Wah and Wee (1988). However, this is for the first time such a phenomenon is being reported from a mangrove habitat of Karachi. It was caused by a pennate diatom Navicula cancellata Donkin.

Control of Arabidopsis flowering: the chill before the bloom.

The timing of the floral transition has significant consequences for reproductive success in plants. Plants gauge both environmental and endogenous signals before switching to reproductive development. Many temperate species only flower after they have experienced a prolonged period of cold, a process known as vernalization, which aligns flowering with the favourable conditions of spring. Considerable progress has been made in understanding the molecular basis of vernalization in Arabidopsis. A central player in this process is FLC, which blocks flowering by inhibiting genes required to switch the meristem from vegetative to floral development. Recent data shows that many regulators of FLC alter chromatin structure or are involved in RNA processing.

Noxious euglenophytes bloom in fertilized fish ponds

A study was carried out in nine fertilized fish ponds under three treatments at Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh, to record the influence of different fertilizers on noxious euglenophytes bloom. Some water quality parameters (viz., temperature, pH, phosphate-phosphorus, nitrate-nitrogen and chlorophyll-a) and phytoplankton populations were monitored at certain intervals. During the study period, three genera of euglenophytes such as Euglena, Phacus and Trachelomonas were recorded of which Euglena was most dominant. Significantly (p<0.05) higher cell density of euglenophytes was observed in the ponds treated with chicken manure followed by the ponds treated with both cow dung and chicken manures and the ponds treated with only cow dung. The higher cell density of euglenophytes was explained by acidic pH (around 6.5) and higher phosphate-phosphorus (1.37 mg/1) and nitrate-nitrogen (1.47 mg/I) concentrations. The population size of euglenophytes showed positive correlation with phosphate-phosphorus and nitrate-nitrogen concentration while negative with pH. Nutrient enrichment and acidic pH enhanced the growth of euglenophytes but reduced the growth of chlorophytes and bacillariophytes.

Effects of toxins induced by phytoplankton bloom on physiological function of indicator animals in Anzali Lagoon

The present overview summarizes data from one year's study during the period of 1379 to 1380 in the regions by "Anzali" lagoon called "Abkenar" and "Hendkhale". Specimens from this lagoon obtained weekly during mordad and shahrivar mounths (July 21 to september 21). The study included 67 types of 5 phytoplanktonal phylum. In "Abkenar" region Cyanobacters with maximum of 97% and minimum of 64.5% of total combination of phytoplanktones made the dominating combination during the period of study , while in "hendkhale" chyrsophyta with maximum of 89% and minimum of 38.7% of total phytoplanktonal was the dominating figure at the same period of time. Researches on ecological parameteres showed that the avarage dissolved oxygen in -Abkenar" and "hendlchale" regions was 10.7 and 8.0 mg/lit respectivly, also total rate of Phosphat in these regions was 0.085 and 0.15 mg/lit respectivly. This study showed that the rates of Nitrat and Amonium in "Abkenar" region was 0.043 and 0.79 mg / lit while for the same substances in "Ilendkhale" measured 0.08 and 0.7 mg I lit respective. Also the avarage rate of chlorophyll a in these two areas measured 58,38 and 40.45 j.un /ht respectivly. Depending on results of correlation cofficient in "Abkenar" region we had Cyanobacters , water and air temperature , Chlorophyll a and total amount of Phosphat as a poitive correlation with transparency while Amonium and Nitrat showed , a negative correlation , EC and finally dissolved oxygen showed a very low rate of correlation coffiocient. To perform this research 5 genus of Cyanobacteres horn "Anzali" lagoon have been isolated and cultured in a laboratorial conditions Later by using Mouse Bioassay method one of these genus identified as a toxic algae. Levels of LD50 with intra peritoneal injection of toxin on mouse in 24 hours was 660 mg/kg and Levels of LC50 by using Bioassay method on Artemia and Daphnia has been shown 618 and 1000 mg kg respectively. Also the physiological effects of were investigated. algae on two types of Cypronides family called Cyprinus carpi° and Hypophrthabnichthys Resultes of blood analyses of Cypronides who were feeded by toxic algae showed a significant decline (P < 0.05) in white and red blood cells and their hematocrites. Levels of LDH , SGOT and SGPT in their blood serum had a significant increase in porportion to control group (P < 0.05) but there was no evidance a differences in Total Protein levels. Pathological studies show damage and destruction of hepato pancreas and kidney of these fishes. Signs and symptoms of intoxication caused by Cyanobacter called Planktohrix agardlltii in mouse and fish show heptotoxic character. This toxin belongs to cyclicpeptides of microcystines group.

Temporal Coherence of Chlorophyll a during a Spring Phytoplankton Bloom in Xiangxi Bay of Three-Gorges Reservoir, China

Algal bloom phenomenon was defined as "the rapid growth of one or more phytoplankton species which leads to a rapid increase in the biomass of phytoplankton", yet most estimates of temporal coherence are based on yearly or monthly sampling frequencies and little is known of how synchrony varies among phytoplankton or of the causes of temporal coherence during spring algal bloom. In this study, data of chlorophyll a and related environmental parameters were weekly gathered at 15 sampling sites in Xiangxi Bay of Three-Gorges Reservoir (TGR, China) to evaluate patterns of temporal coherence for phytoplankton during spring bloom and test if spatial heterogeneity of nutrient and inorganic suspended particles within a single ecosystem influences synchrony of spring phytoplankton dynamics. There is a clear spatial and temporal variation in chlorophyll a across Xiangxi Bay. The degree of temporal coherence for chlorophyll a between pairs of sites located in Xiangxi Bay ranged from -0.367 to 0.952 with mean and median values of 0.349 and 0.321, respectively. Low levels of temporal coherence were often detected among the three stretches of the bay (Down reach, middle reach and upper reach), while high levels of temporal coherence were often found within the same reach of the bay. The relative difference of DIN between pair sites was the strong predictor of temporal coherence for chlorophyll a in down and middle reach of the bay, while the relative difference in Anorganic Suspended Solids was the important factor regulating temporal coherence in middle and upper reach. Contrary to many studies, these results illustrate that, in a small geographic area (a single reservoir bay of approximately 25 km), spatial heterogeneity influence synchrony of phytoplankton dynamics during spring bloom and local processes may override the effects of regional processes or dispersal.