Modelling of bird distribution under complex mediterranean landscape dynamics: open habitat birds and fire (MEDFIRE)

Report for the scientific sojourn at the Simon Fraser University, Canada, from July to September 2007. General context: landscape change during the last years is having significant impacts on biodiversity in many Mediterranean areas. Land abandonment, urbanisation and specially fire are profoundly transforming large areas in the Western Mediterranean basin and we know little on how these changes influence species distribution and in particular how these species will respond to further change in a context of global change including climate. General objectives: integrate landscape and population dynamics models in a platform allowing capturing species distribution responses to landscape changes and assessing impact on species distribution of different scenarios of further change. Specific objective 1: develop a landscape dynamic model capturing fire and forest succession dynamics in Catalonia and linked to a stochastic landscape occupancy (SLOM) (or spatially explicit population, SEPM) model for the Ortolan bunting, a species strongly linked to fire related habitat in the region. Predictions from the occupancy or spatially explicit population Ortolan bunting model (SEPM) should be evaluated using data from the DINDIS database. This database tracks bird colonisation of recently burnt big areas (&50 ha). Through a number of different SEPM scenarios with different values for a number of parameter, we should be able to assess different hypothesis in factors driving bird colonisation in new burnt patches. These factors to be mainly, landscape context (i.e. difficulty to reach the patch, and potential presence of coloniser sources), dispersal constraints, type of regenerating vegetation after fire, and species characteristics (niche breadth, etc).

Environmental suitability of a highly fragmented and heterogeneous landscape for forest bird species in south-eastern Brazil

Assessment of the suitability of anthropogenic landscapes for wildlife species is crucial for setting priorities for biodiversity conservation. This study aimed to analyse the environmental suitability of a highly fragmented region of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, one of the world's 25 recognized biodiversity hotspots, for forest bird species. Eight forest bird species were selected for the analyses, based on point counts (n = 122) conducted in April-September 2006 and January-March 2009. Six additional variables (landscape diversity, distance from forest and streams, aspect, elevation and slope) were modelled in Maxent for (1) actual and (2) simulated land cover, based on the forest expansion required by existing Brazilian forest legislation. Models were evaluated by bootstrap or jackknife methods and their performance was assessed by AUC, omission error, binomial probability or p value. All predictive models were statistically significant, with high AUC values and low omission errors. A small proportion of the actual landscape (24.41 +/- 6.31%) was suitable for forest bird species. The simulated landscapes lead to an increase of c. 30% in total suitable areas. In average, models predicted a small increase (23.69 +/- 6.95%) in the area of suitable native forest for bird species. Being close to forest increased the environmental suitability of landscapes for all bird species; landscape diversity was also a significant factor for some species. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that species distribution modelling (SDM) successfully predicted bird distribution across a heterogeneous landscape at fine spatial resolution, as all models were biologically relevant and statistically significant. The use of landscape variables as predictors contributed significantly to the results, particularly for species distributions over small extents and at fine scales. This is the first study to evaluate the environmental suitability of the remaining Brazilian Atlantic Forest for bird species in an agricultural landscape, and provides important additional data for regional environmental planning.

Natural gaps associated with oxidative stress in Willisornis poecilinotus (Aves: Thamnophilidae) in a tropical forest

Natural disturbances in tropical forests modify the availability and quality of resources and alter the patterns of bird distribution. These environmental changes increase the metabolic rate and disrupt the redox balance promoting oxidative stress. This study aimed to compare the abundance of Willisornis poecilinotus between gaps and the understory of a forest with undisturbed canopy at Caxiuanã National Forest. The abundance was correlated with vegetation heights. The oxidative stress and the stress promoting factors were determined in both sites of sampling. We captured 81 specimens of W. poecilinotus. The number of captures was high in gaps. The specimens sampled at gaps showed high levels of oxidative stress. The biomarkers of oxidative stress were significantly correlated in gaps. The variability of oxidative stress and oxidative damage were explained only by site of sampling. These results suggest that gaps are stressors sites to W. poecilinotus, which probably can be due to an increase of metabolic rate to deal with new flight strategies of foraging and avoid predation

Niche conservatism in non-native birds in Europe: niche unfilling rather than niche expansion

Aim Niche conservatism, or the extent to which niches are conserved across space and time, is of special concern for the study of non-native species as it underlies predictions of invasion risk. Based on the occurrence of 28 non-native birds in Europe, we assess to what extent Grinnellian realized niches are conserved during invasion, formulate hypotheses to explain the variation in observed niche changes and test how well species distribution models can predict non-native bird occurrence in Europe. Location Europe. Methods To quantify niche changes, a recent method that applies kernel smoothers to densities of species occurrence in a gridded environmental space was used. This corrects for differences in the availability of environments between study areas and allows discrimination between 'niche expansion' into environments new to the species and 'niche unfilling', whereby the species only partially fills its niche in the invaded range. Predictions of non-native bird distribution in Europe were generated using several distribution modelling techniques. Results Niche overlap between native and non-native bird populations is low, but niche changes are smaller for species having a higher propagule pressure and that were introduced longer ago. Non-native birds in Europe occupy a subset of the environments they inhabit in their native ranges. Niche expansion into novel environments is rare for most species, allowing species distribution models to accurately predict invasion risk. Main conclusions Because of the recent nature of most bird introductions, species occupy only part of the suitable environments available in the invaded range. This signals that apart from purely ecological factors, patterns of niche conservatism may also be contingent on population-specific historical factors. These results also suggest that many claims of niche differences may be due to a partial filling of the native niche in the invaded range and thus do not represent true niche changes.

Can agroforest woodlots work as stepping stones for birds in the Atlantic forest region?

In fragmented landscapes, agroforest woodlots can potentially act as stepping stones facilitating movement between forest fragments. We assessed the influence of agroforest woodlots on bird distribution and diversity in the Atlantic forest region (SE Brazil), and also tested which categories of species can use different types of connection elements, and whether this use is influenced by the distance to large forest patches. We studied two fragmented landscapes, with and without stepping stones linking large fragments, and one forested landscape. Using a point count, a bird survey was undertaken in the fragmented landscapes in five different elements: large remnants (> 400 ha), agroforest woodlots (0.4-1.1 ha), small patches (0.5-7 ha), riparian corridor, and pasture areas (the main matrix). Generalist and open-area species were commonly observed in the agroforest system or other connection elements, whereas only a few forest species were present in these connections. For the latter species, the distance of woodlots to large patches was essential to determine their richness and abundance. Based on our results and data from literature, we suggest that there is an optimal relationship between the permeability of the matrix and the efficiency of stepping stones, which occurs at intermediate degrees of matrix resistance, and is species-dependent. Because the presence of agroforest system favors a higher richness of generalist species, they appeared to be more advantageous for conservation than the monoculture system; for this reason, they should be considered as a management alternative, particularly when the matrix permeability requirement is met.

Frugivoria e dispersão de sementes de Talauma ovata (Magnoliaceae) no sudeste brasileiro

Some plants are widely distributed, ranging in different vegetation types. Since bird distribution can be directly associated to vegetational cover, we expect that seed dispersers can also vary following phytophysiognomy for some ornithochorous plants. The purpose of this paper was to describe potential seed disperser birds of Talauma ovata (Magnoliaceae) in semideciduous Atlantic forest and cerrado fragments in south-east Brazil. In 79 h of focal observations we recorded 1085 visits of 25 different bird species consuming T. ovata diaspores. Although most bird species observed consuming T. ovata diaspores present generalist habits, they were potential seed dispersers, presenting high visits rate and do not staying a long time on the plants, favoring seed dispersal efficiency. Fruit consumption was not different between species in the study sites and the time spending on the plants was not different between species in semideciduous forest, but was different in cerrado. Agonistic encounters were observed mainly in the end of fruiting season, but was not relevant to decrease the number of seeds dispersed by birds. The occurrence of different potential seed dispersers between areas, such as Cyanocorax cristatellus (Corvidae), Schistochlamys ruficapillus (Emberizidae) and Mimus saturninus (Mimidae), which are endemic from the cerrado ecosystem and could rarely be found in semideciduous forest, suggests that seed dispersers can vary according to phytophysiognomy characteristics. Our results also indicate that the evolution of a generalist seed dispersal system such as observed for T. ovata can make possible the colonization of different ambients. Furthermore, the high number of visits recorded for both areas suggests that the fleshy arils of T. ovata are important feeding resources for birds.

Natural gaps associated with oxidative stress in Willisornis poecilinotus (Aves: Thamnophilidae) in a tropical forest

Os distúrbios naturais nas florestas tropicais contribuem para heterogeneidade do habitat, alterando os padrões de distribuição das aves. Estas alterações no ambiente elevam o metabolismo, promovendo distúrbios no balanço redox, e em consequência o estresse oxidativo. O objetivo deste estudo foi comparar a abundância de Willisornis poecilinotus entre clareiras e sub-bosque de dossel intacto associando-a a altura da vegetação na Floresta Nacional de Caxiuanã. A seguir, foi avaliado o estresse oxidativo e os fatores promotores de estresse foram determinados nos ambientes selecionados. Foram capturados 81 espécimes de W. poecilinotus. O número de capturas foi superior nas clareiras, quando comparado ao sub-bosque de dossel contínuo. Os espécimes capturados nas clareiras apresentaram índices de estresse oxidativo significativamente elevados. Foi observada correlação significativa entre os marcadores de estresse oxidativo nas clareiras. As variações do biomarcador de dano oxidativo e do estresse oxidativo foram explicadas somente pelo sítio de amostragem. Estes resultados sugerem que as clareiras são sítios de estímulos estressores para W. poecilinotus o que provavelmente resulta da maior demanda metabólica para novas estratégias de forrageio e para evitar a predação.

DYNAMICS OF THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM AVIAN DISTRIBUTIONS IN NORTH AMERICA - THE ROLES OF VEGETATION HEIGHT HETEROGENEITY AND CLIMATIC FACTORS

Understanding how biodiversity spatially distribute over both the short term and long term, and what factors are affecting the distribution, are critical for modeling the spatial pattern of biodiversity as well as for promoting effective conservation planning and practices. This dissertation aims to examine factors that influence short-term and long-term avian distribution from the geographical sciences perspective. The research develops landscape level habitat metrics to characterize forest height heterogeneity and examines their efficacies in modelling avian richness at the continental scale. Two types of novel vegetation-height-structured habitat metrics are created based on second order texture algorithms and the concepts of patch-based habitat metrics. I correlate the height-structured metrics with the richness of different forest guilds, and also examine their efficacies in multivariate richness models. The results suggest that height heterogeneity, beyond canopy height alone, supplements habitat characterization and richness models of two forest bird guilds. The metrics and models derived in this study demonstrate practical examples of utilizing three-dimensional vegetation data for improved characterization of spatial patterns in species richness. The second and the third projects focus on analyzing centroids of avian distributions, and testing hypotheses regarding the direction and speed of these shifts. I first showcase the usefulness of centroids analysis for characterizing the distribution changes of a few case study species. Applying the centroid method on 57 permanent resident bird species, I show that multi-directional distribution shifts occurred in large number of studied species. I also demonstrate, plain birds are not shifting their distribution faster than mountain birds, contrary to the prediction based on climate change velocity hypothesis. By modelling the abundance change rate at regional level, I show that extreme climate events and precipitation measures associate closely with some of the long-term distribution shifts. This dissertation improves our understanding on bird habitat characterization for species richness modelling, and expands our knowledge on how avian populations shifted their ranges in North America responding to changing environments in the past four decades. The results provide an important scientific foundation for more accurate predictive species distribution modeling in future.

The importance of host spatial distribution for parasite specialization and speciation: a comparative study of bird fleas (Siphonaptera : Ceratophyllidae)

1. The environment of parasites is determined largely by their hosts. Variation in host quality, abundance and spatial distribution affects the balance between selection within hosts and gene flow between hosts, and this should determine the evolution of a parasite's host-range and its propensity to locally adapt and speciate. 2. We investigated the relationship between host spatial distribution and (1) parasite host range, (2) parasite mobility and (3) parasite geographical range, in a comparative study of a major group of avian ectoparasites, the birds fleas belonging to the Ceratophyllidae (Siphonaptera). 3. Flea species parasitizing colonial birds had narrower host ranges than those infesting territorial nesters or birds with an intermediate level of nest aggregation. 4. The potential mobility and geographical ranges of fleas decreased with increasing level of aggregation of their hosts and increased with the fleas' host ranges. 5. Birds with aggregated nest distribution harboured more flea species mainly due to a larger number of specialists than solitarily nesting hosts. 6. These results emphasize the importance of host spatial distribution for the evolution of specialization, and for local adaptation and speciation in Ceratophyllid bird fleas.

Bird species distribution and conservation in Serra do Cipo, Minas Gerais, Brazil

We studied the distribution of birds along an altitudinal gradient ranging from 800 m to 1,400 m on two slopes of the Serra do Cip6, Minas Gerais, southeastern Brazil. Ornithological surveys were conducted over transects covering open (cerrado, campo rupestre) and forested (gallery and Atlantic forest) habitats from 1994 to 2000. We found 273 bird species belonging to 51 families. Twenty-two species were restricted to higher elevations and 84 Species were detected on only one slope, depending on the vegetation type they inhabited. We recorded 104 species occurring on both slopes, while 61 species were considered altitudinal generalists. Six species, including Hyacinth Visorbearer Augastes scutatus and Cip6 Canastero Asthenes luizae were restricted to the highest parts of Serra do Cip6, a fragile habitat important to endemic birds of the Espinhaco Range. In the past 10 years, the Serra do Cip6 region has suffered human impacts on a large scale, and conservation action must be developed to protect the fauna and flora confined to the area.

Distribution of Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans, Porphyromonas gingivalis and Prevotella intermedia in an Australian population

Background, aim: The present study describes (i) the natural distribution of the three putative periodontopathogens Porphyromonas gingivalis, Prevotella intermedia and Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans in an Australian population and (ii) the relationship between these organisms, pocket depths and supragingival plaque scores. Methods: Subgingival plaque was collected from the shallowest and deepest probing site in each sextant of the dentition. In total, 6030 subgingival plaque samples were collected from 504 subjects. An ELISA utilising pathogen-specific monoclonal antibodies was used to quantitate bacterial numbers. Results:: A. actinomycetemcomitans was the most frequently detected organism (22.8% of subjects) followed by P. gingivalis and P. intermedia (14.7% and 9.5% of subjects respectively). The majority of infected subjects (83%) were colonised by a single species of organism. A. actinomyceteincomitans presence was overrepresented in the youngest age group but under-represented in the older age groups. Conversely, P. gingivalis and P. intermedia presence was under-represented in the youngest age group but over-represented in the older age groups. Differing trends in the distribution of these bacteria were observed between subjects depending upon the site of the infection or whether a single or mixed infection was present; however, these differences did not reach significance. Bacterial presence was strongly associated with pocket depth for both A. actinomyceteincomitans and P. gingivalis. For A. actinomycetemcomitans, the odds of a site containing this bacterium decrease with deeper pockets. In contrast, for P. gingivalis the odds of a site being positive are almost six times greater for pockets >3 ram than for pockets less than or equal to3 nun. These odds increase further to 15.3 for pockets deeper than 5 mm. The odds of a site being P. intermedia positive were marginally greater (1.16) for pockets deeper than 3 mm. Conclusions: This cross-sectional study in a volunteer Australian population, demonstrated recognised periodontal pathogens occur as part of the flora of the subgingival plaque. Prospective longitudinal studies are needed to examine the positive relationship between pocket depth and pathogen presence with periodontal disease initiation and/or progression.

New and significant bird records from Rio Grande do Sul, with comments on biogeography and conservation of the southern Brazilian avifauna

I report on the occurrence of 16 species of birds in Rio Grande do Sul, southern Brazil, of which seven are new for the state - Accipiter superciliosus (Linnaeus, 1766), Brotogeris tirica (Gmelin, 1788), Hemitriccus margaritaceiventer (d'Orbigny & Lafresnaye, 1837), Phyllomyias griseocapilla Sclater, 1862, Saltator coerulescens Vieillot, 1817, Orthogonys chloricterus (Vieillot, 1819), and Sporophila lineola (Linnaeus, 1758) - and seven were previously known from unsubstantiated or poorly documented records - Ixobrychus exilis (Gmelin, 1789), Brotogeris chiriri (Vieillot, 1818), Coccyzus euleri Cabanis, 1873, Pulsatrix koeniswaldiana (Bertoni & Bertoni, 1901), Psilorhamphus guttatus (Ménétriès, 1835), Serpophaga griseicapilla Straneck, 2007, and Hemithraupis ruficapilla (Vieillot, 1818). Descriptive and natural history notes are presented for some of these species. The records of B. tirica, P. guttatus, P. griseocapilla, Myiozetetes similis (Spix, 1825), O. chloricterus, H. ruficapilla, and S. lineola represent significant southward range extensions of up to 300 km. Also, a new confirmed record of Myiarchus ferox (Statius Muller, 1776) is divulged. Finally, I argue that the Atlantic forests of north-eastern Rio Grande do Sul should be included in the Serra do Mar area of endemism (sensu SILVA et al., 2004) because of the presence of Orthogonys chloricterus, and comment on the possible range expansion of Myiozetetes similis, Sporophila lineola and other primarily tropical species in southern Brazil.

Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.