Endogenous Risk Perception, Geospatial Characteristics and Temporal Variation in Hurricane Evacuation Behavior

The main focus of this thesis was to gain a better understanding about the dynamics of risk perception and its influence on people’s evacuation behavior. Another major focus was to improve our knowledge regarding geo-spatial and temporal variations of risk perception and hurricane evacuation behavior. A longitudinal dataset of more than eight hundred households were collected following two major hurricane events, Ivan and Katrina. The longitudinal survey data was geocoded and a geo-spatial database was integrated to it. The geospatial database was composed of distance, elevation and hazard parameters with respect to the respondent’s household location. A set of Bivariate Probit (BP) model suggests that geospatial variables have had significant influences in explaining hurricane risk perception and evacuation behavior during both hurricanes. The findings also indicated that people made their evacuation decision in coherence with their risk perception. In addition, people updated their hurricane evacuation decision in a subsequent similar event.

New Ventures’ influence on the Growth of SME Employment, Production and Exports in India: Does Institutional Credit matter?

New ventures are considered to be a major source of small firm growth. In Indian context the contribution of new ventures in terms of new employment, production and exports has largely remained unexplored. It is equally important and unexplored, the significance of the contribution of bank credit to the growth of new ventures in India. This paper is an attempt to throw light on these two aspects. The research is based on secondary data of the liberalized period provided by Ministry of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India. To analyze the influence of bank credit growth on new ventures and the influence of new ventures on growth of additional employment, additional production and additional exports, we used a Bi-Variate Vector Auto Regression. Based on the model generated, Granger causality tests are conducted to obtain the results. The study found that rate of growth of bank credit causes the number of new ventures, implying any increase in the rate of growth of bank credit will be beneficial to the growth of new ventures. The study also concluded that new ventures are not causing the growth of additional employment or additional production. However new ventures cause the growth of additional exports. This is reasonable as entrepreneurs start their new ventures with minimum possible employment and relatively low rate of capacity utilization and they come up to take advantage of the process of globalization by catering to the international market.

Facteurs de risque liés à la criminalité violente chez les contrevenants psychotiques des prisons québécoises

Au cours des dernières décennies, de nombreuses études ont confirmé l’existence d’une relation entre les troubles mentaux graves et persistants (TMGP) et la commission de crimes violents. Les facteurs de risque associés à la violence chez les gens atteints de TMGP sont la consommation d’alcool ou de drogues, la dépression et les troubles de personnalité. Cependant, aucune étude n’a été faite auprès des détenus des prisons québécoises, c’est-à-dire, des détenus qui purgent des sentences de courte durée, afin de voir si ces constats s’appliquent aussi à cette population. La présente étude tente de vérifier si les mêmes facteurs de risque sont liés à la violence chez les détenus psychotiques des prisons du Québec. Les dossiers de la RAMQ et du système DACOR de 121 détenus ont été analysés afin de répondre à la question de recherche. Tout d’abord, des analyses statistiques descriptives et bivariées ont été effectuées. Par la suite, des régressions logistiques ont été menées afin d’identifier les meilleurs prédicteurs de comportements violents chez les contrevenants psychotiques des prisons québécoises. Il semble que ce soit davantage les antécédents judiciaires ainsi que la médication psychotrope qui a été prescrite, plutôt que les diagnostics de troubles mentaux comorbides, qui distinguent les détenus psychotiques violents des non-violents dans les prisons québécoises. Une explication possible à cette observation est que les médecins prescriraient plus en fonction de la présence de certains symptômes spécifiques qu’en fonction des diagnostics de l’axe I ou de l’axe II. Enfin, des différences significatives sont présentes entre les hommes et les femmes.

Morbilidad laboral en el sector agrícola en trabajadores afiliados a una administradora de riesgos laborales (ARL) de Colombia, durante el periodo 2011-2012.

Este estudio muestra la prevalencia por enfermedad laboral de un grupo de trabajadores afiliados a una ARL en Colombia. Compara la morbilidad laboral entre dos grupo de trabajadores expuestos y no expuestos al trabajo agrícola y al interior del grupo de trabajadores agrícolas agrupados en las actividades de corte de caña, cultivo de banano y flores. Se realizó un estudio descriptivo de tipo transversal durante el periodo 2011-2012, mediante la revisión de una base de datos de morbilidad laboral. Se realizó un análisis uni-variado y Bi-variado y se comparó la morbilidad con datos sociodemográficos, grupos de trabajadores agrícolas y no agrícolas, y actividad productiva del sector agrícola. Se revisaron 3129 diagnósticos de enfermedad profesional durante el periodo de estudio, 433 diagnósticos fueron trabajadores agrícolas y 2696 pertenecieron a otros grupos de trabajadores. Los desórdenes Osteomusculares fueron los diagnósticos más prevalentes en el grupo Agro 92% y No Agro 86% y en las actividades de corte de caña, cultivo de banano y flores. Entre el grupo Agrícola y no agrícola se encontraron diferencias significativas en los siguientes diagnósticos: Síndrome del túnel del carpo, Síndrome de manguito rotador, Otras sinovitis y tenosinovitis, Lumbago no Especificado, Hipoacusia Neurosensorial Bilateral y epicondilitis lateral; de igual manera se encontraron diferencias entre las actividades de corte de caña y cultivo de banano y flores en los diagnósticos de: Epicondilitis, Sinovitis, Síndrome del túnel del Carpo y Trastorno lumbar. El factor de riesgo más prevalente en el grupo agrícola fue el Ergonómico con el 92.8% de los casos

O efeito da autocorrelação no desempenho do gráfico T2 de hotelling: caso bivariado

The chart of control of Hotelling T2 has been the main statistical device used in monitoring multivariate processes. Currently the technological development of control systems and automation enabled a high rate of collection of information of the production systems in very short time intervals, causing a dependency between the results of observations. This phenomenon known as auto correlation causes in the statistical control of the multivariate processes a high rate of false alarms, prejudicing in the chart performance. This entails the violation of the assumption of independence and normality of the distribution. In this thesis we considered not only the correlation between two variables, but also the dependence between observations of the same variable, that is, auto correlation. It was studied by simulation, the bi variate case and the effect of auto correlation on the performance of the T2 chart of Hotelling.

Stress and burnout among Swiss dental residents

Stress and burnout have been well-documented in graduate medical and undergraduate dental education, but studies among dental graduate students and residents are sparse. The purpose of this investigation was to examine perceived stressors and three dimensions of burnout among dental residents enrolled in the University of Bern, Switzerland. Thirty-six residents enrolled in five specialty programmes were administered the Graduate Dental Environment Stress (GDES30) questionnaire and the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI). Individual stress items and overall GDES30 scores were used to quantify perceived stress. To measure burnout, proportions of burnout "cases" and MBI subscale scores were computed in the domains of emotional exhaustion (EE), depersonalization (DP) and reduced personal accomplishment (PA). Analyses relied on descriptive and bi-variate methods. The mean GDES30 score was 2.1 (SD = 0.4). "Lack of leisure time", "meeting the research requirement of the programme" and "completing graduation requirements" emerged as the top three stressors. Thirty-six percent of respondents were burnout "cases" on the PA scale, while this proportion was 17% for EE and 8% for DP. Both stress and burnout levels increased according to year of study, whereas younger residents and females had consistently higher stress and burnout scores compared to older ones and males. Overall, low levels of perceived stress and burnout were found among this group of Swiss dental residents.

Implicaciones de la accesibilidad configuracional en la movilidad peatonal. El caso de Madrid = The implications of configurational accessibility in pedestrian mobility. The case of Madrid

- Resumen La hipótesis que anima esta tesis doctoral es que algunas de las características del entorno urbano, en particular las que describen la accesibilidad de su red de espacio público, podrían estar relacionadas con la proporción de viajes a pie o reparto modal, que tiene cada zona o barrio de Madrid. Uno de los puntos de partida de dicha hipótesis que el entorno urbano tiene una mayor influencia sobre los viaje a pie que en sobre otros modos de transporte, por ejemplo que en los viajes de bicicleta o en transporte público; y es que parece razonable suponer que estos últimos van a estar más condicionadas por ejemplo por la disponibilidad de vías ciclistas, en el primer caso, o por la existencia de un servicio fiable y de calidad, en el segundo. Otra de las motivaciones del trabajo es que la investigación en este campo de la accesibilidad del espacio público, en concreto la denominada “Space Syntax”, ha probado en repetidas ocasiones la influencia de la red de espacio público en cómo se distribuye la intensidad del tráfico peatonal por la trama urbana, pero no se han encontrado referencias de la influencia de dicho elemento sobre el reparto modal. De acuerdo con la hipótesis y con otros trabajos anteriores se propone una metodología basada en el análisis empírico y cuantitativo. Su objetivo es comprobar si la red de espacio público, independientemente de otras variables como los usos del suelo, incluso de las variables de ajenas entorno no construido, como las socioeconómicas, está o no relacionada estadísticamente con la proporción de peatones viajes en las zonas urbanas. Las técnicas estadísticas se utilizan para comprobar sistemáticamente la asociación de las variables del entorno urbano, denominadas variables independientes, con el porcentaje de viajes a pie, la variable dependiente. En términos generales, la metodología es similar a la usada en otros trabajos en este campo como los de CERVERÓ y KOCKLEMAN (1997), CERVERÓ y DUNCAN (2003), o para los que se utilizan principalmente en la revisión general de TRB (2005) o, más recientemente, en ZEGRAS (2006) o CHATMAN (2009). Otras opciones metodológicas, como los métodos de preferencias declaradas (ver LOUVIERE, HENSHER y SWAIT, 2000) o el análisis basado en agentes (PENN & TURNER, 2004) fueron descartados, debido a una serie de razones, demasiado extensas para ser descritas aquí. El caso de estudio utilizado es la zona metropolitana de Madrid, abarcándola hasta la M-50, es decir en su mayor parte, con un tamaño aproximado de 31x34 Km y una población de 4.132.820 habitantes (aproximadamente el 80% de la población de la región). Las principales fuentes de datos son la Encuesta Domiciliaria de Movilidad de 2004 (EDM04), del Consorcio Regional de Transportes de Madrid que es la última disponible (muestra: > 35.000 familias,> 95.000 personas), y un modelo espacial del área metropolitana, integrando el modelo para calcular los índices de Space Syntax y un Sistema de Información Geográfica (SIG). La unidad de análisis, en este caso las unidades espaciales, son las zonas de transporte (con una población media de 7.063 personas) y los barrios (con una población media de 26.466 personas). Las variables del entorno urbano son claramente el centro del estudio. Un total de 20 índices (de 21) se seleccionan de entre los más relevantes encontrados en la revisión de la producción científica en este campo siendo que, al mismo tiempo, fueran accesibles. Nueve de ellos se utilizan para describir las características de los usos del suelo, mientras que otros once se usan para describir la red de espacios públicos. Estos últimos incluyen las variables de accesibilidad configuracional, que son, como se desprende de su título, el centro del estudio propuesto. La accesibilidad configuracional es un tipo especial de accesibilidad que se basa en la configuración de la trama urbana, según esta fue definida por HILLIER (1996), el autor de referencia dentro de esta línea de investigación de Space Syntax. Además se incluyen otras variables de la red de espacio público más habituales en los estudios de movilidad, y que aquí se denominan características geométricas de los elementos de la red, tales como su longitud, tipo de intersección, conectividad, etc. Por último se incluye además una variable socioeconómica, es decir ajena al entorno urbano, para evaluar la influencia de los factores externos, pues son varios los que pueden tener un impacto en la decisión de caminar (edad, género, nivel de estudios, ingresos, tasa de motorización, etc.). La asociación entre las variables se han establecido usando análisis de correlación (bivariante) y modelos de análisis multivariante. Las primeras se calculan entre por pares entre cada una de las 21 variables independientes y la dependiente, el porcentaje de viajes a pie. En cuanto a los segundos, se han realizado tres tipos de estudios: modelo multivariante general lineal, modelo multivariante general curvilíneo y análisis discriminante. Todos ellos son capaces de generar modelos de asociación entre diversas variables, pudiéndose de esta manera evaluar con bastante precisión en qué medida cada modelo reproduce el comportamiento de la variable dependiente, y además, el peso o influencia de cada variable en el modelo respecto a las otras. Los resultados fundamentales del estudio se expresan en dos modelos finales alternativos, que demuestran tener una significativa asociación con el porcentaje de viajes a pie (R2 = 0,6789, p <0,0001), al explicar las dos terceras partes de su variabilidad. En ellos, y en general en todo el estudio realizado, se da una influencia constante de tres índices en particular, que quedan como los principales. Dos de ellos, de acuerdo con muchos de los estudios previos, corresponden a la densidad y la mezcla de usos del suelo. Pero lo más novedoso de los resultados obtenidos es que el tercero es una medida de la accesibilidad de la red de espacio público, algo de lo que no había referencias hasta ahora. Pero, ¿cuál es la definición precisa y el peso relativo de cada uno en el modelo, es decir, en la variable independiente? El de mayor peso en la mayor parte de los análisis realizados es el índice de densidad total (n º residentes + n º puestos de trabajo + n º alumnos / Ha). Es decir, una densidad no sólo de población, sino que incluye algunas de las actividades más importantes que pueden darse una zona para generar movilidad a pie. El segundo que mayor peso adquiere, llegando a ser el primero en alguno de los análisis estadísticos efecturados, es el índice de accesibuilidad configuracional denominado integración de radio 5. Se trata de una medida de la accesibilidad de la zona, de su centralidad, a la escala de, más un menor, un distrito o comarca. En cuanto al tercero, obtiene una importancia bastante menor que los anteriores, y es que representa la mezcla de usos. En concreto es una medida del equilibrio entre los comercios especializados de venta al por menor y el número de residentes (n º de tiendas especializadas en alimentación, bebidas y tabaco / n º de habitantes). Por lo tanto, estos resultados confirman buena parte de los de estudios anteriores, especialmente los relativas a los usos del suelo, pero al mismo tiempo, apuntan a que la red de espacio público podría tener una influir mayor de la comprobada hasta ahora en la proporción de peatones sobre el resto de modos de transportes. Las razones de por qué esto puede ser así, se discuten ampliamente en las conclusiones. Finalmente se puede precisar que dicha conclusión principal se refiere a viajes de una sola etapa (no multimodales) que se dan en los barrios y zonas del área metropolitana de Madrid. Por supuesto, esta conclusión tiene en la actualidad, una validez limitada, ya que es el resultado de un solo caso — Abstract The research hypothesis for this Ph.D. Thesis is that some characteristics of the built environment, particularly those describing the accessibility of the public space network, could be associated with the proportion of pedestrians in all trips (modal split), found in the different parts of a city. The underlying idea is that walking trips are more sensitive to built environment than those by other transport modes, such as for example those by bicycle or by public transport, which could be more conditioned by, e.g. infrastructure availability or service frequency and quality. On the other hand, it has to be noted that the previously research on this field, in particular within Space Syntax’s where this study can be referred, have tested similar hypothesis using pedestrian volumes as the dependent variable, but never against modal split. According to such hypothesis, research methodology is based primarily on empirical quantitative analysis, and it is meant to be able to assess whether public space network, no matter other built environment and non-built environment variables, could have a relationship with the proportion of pedestrian trips in urban areas. Statistical techniques are used to check the association of independent variables with the percentage of walking in all trips, the dependent one. Broadly speaking this methodology is similar to that of previous studies in the field such as CERVERO&KOCKLEMAN (1997), CERVERO & DUNCAN (2003), or to those used mainly in the general review of T.R.B. (2005) or, more recently in ZEGRAS (2006) or CHATMAN (2009). Other methodological options such as stated choice methods (see LOUVIERE, HENSHER & SWAIT, 2000) or agent based analysis (PENN & TURNER, 2004), were discarded, due to a number of reasons, too long to be described here. The case study is not the entire Madrid’s metropolitan area, but almost (4.132.820 inhabitants, about 80% of region´s population). Main data sources are the Regional Mobility Home Based Survey 2004 (EDM04), which is the last available (sample: >35.000 families, > 95.000 individuals), and a spatial model of the metropolitan area, developed using Space Syntax and G.I.S. techniques. The analysis unit, in this case spatial units, are both transport zones (mean population = 7.063) and neighborhoods (mean population = 26.466). The variables of the built environment are clearly the core of the study. A total of 20 (out of 21) are selected from among those found in the literature while, at the same time, being accessible. Nine out of them are used to describe land use characteristics while another eleven describe the network of public spaces. Latter ones include configurational accessibility or Space Syntax variables. This is a particular sort of accessibility related with the concept of configuration, by HILLIER (1996), one of the main authors of Space Syntax, But it also include more customary variables used in mobility research to describe the urban design or spatial structure (here public space network), which here are called geometric characteristics of the such as its length, type of intersection, conectivity, density, etc. Finally a single socioeconomic variable was included in order to assess the influence non built environment factors that also may have an impact on walking (age, income, motorization rate, etc.). The association among variables is worked out using bi-variate correlation analysis and multivariate-analysis. Correlations are calculated among the 21 independent variables and the dependent one, the percentage of walking trips. Then, three types of multi-variate studies are run: general linear, curvilinear and discriminant multi-variate analysis. The latter are fully capable of generating complex association models among several variables, assessing quite precisely to what extent each model reproduces the behavior of the dependent variable, and also the weight or influence of each variable in the model. This study’s results show a consistent influence of three particular indexes in the two final alternative models of the multi-variate study (best, R2=0,6789, p<0,0000). Not surprisingly, two of them correspond to density and mix of land uses. But perhaps more interesting is that the third one is a measure of the accessibility of the public space network, a variable less important in the literature up to now. Additional precisions about them and their relative weight could also be of some interest. The density index is not only about population but includes most important activities in an area (nº residents + nº jobs+ nº students/Ha). The configurational index (radius 5 integration) is a measure of the accessibility of the area, i.e. centrality, at the scale of, more a less, a district. Regarding the mix of land uses index, this one is a measure of the balance between retail, in fact local basic retail, and the number of residents (nº of convenience shops / nº of residents). Referring to their weights, configurational index (radius 5 integration) gets the higher standardized coefficient of the final equation. However, in the final equations, there are a higher number of indexes coming from the density or land use mix categories than from public space network enter. Therefore, these findings seem to support part of the field’s knowledge, especially those concerning land uses, but at the same time they seem to bring in the idea that the configuration of the urban grid could have an influence in the proportion of walkers (as a part of total trips on any transport mode) that do single journey trips in the neighborhoods of Madrid, Spain. Of course this conclusion has, at present, a limited validity since it’s the result of a single case. The reasons of why this can be so, are discussed in the last part of the thesis.

Factors associated with pregnant women's participation in a mHealth intervention in Timor-Leste

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Strategic planning and performance:extending the debate

This article extends the debate regarding the relationship between strategic planning and performance. It addresses criticism of previous empirical studies that have largely investigated direct and bi-variate relationships, producing equivocal results. The current study investigates the mediating effects of four types of flexibility on the strategic planning and performance relationship. Flexibility is defined as the extent to which new and alternative decisions are generated and considered in strategic planning, allowing for positive organizational change and adaptation to environmental turbulence. Through investigating simultaneous equations in a structural equation model, we find that two types of flexibility mediate the relationship between strategic planning and financial performance, while the other two types mediate the relationship between strategic planning and non-financial performance. The results are new empirical insights that have not been previously reported.

On Representations of Algebraic Polynomials by Superpositions of Plane Waves

* The author was supported by NSF Grant No. DMS 9706883.

Washout hole for bi-ventricular assist device (BVAD) centrifugal blood pump

The shortage of donor hearts for patients with end stage heart failure has accelerated the development of ventricular assist devices (VAD) that act as a replacement heart. Mechanical devices involving pulsatile, axial and centrifugal devices have been proposed. Recent clinical developments indicate that centrifugal devices are not only beneficial for bridge to transplantation applications, but may also aid myocardial recovery. The results of a recent study have shown that patients who received a VAD have extended lives and improved quality of life compared to recipients of drug therapy. Unfortunately 25% of these patients develop right heart failure syndrome, sepsis and multi-organ failure. It was reported that 17% of patients initially receiving an LVAD later required a right ventricular assist device (RVAD). Hence, current research focus is in the development of a bi-ventricular assist device (BVAD). Current BVAD technology is either too bulky or necessitates having to implant two pumps working independently. The latter requires two different controllers for each pump leading to the potential complication of uneven flow dynamics and the requirements for a large amount of body space. This paper illustrates the combination of the LVAD and RVAD as one complete device to augment the function of both the left and right cardiac chambers with double impellers. The proposed device has two impellers rotating in counter directions, hence eliminating the necessity of the body muscles and tubing/heart connection to restrain the pump. The device will also have two separate chambers with independent rotating impeller for the left and right chambers. A problem with centrifugal impellers is the fluid stagnation underneath the impeller. This leads to thrombosis and blood clots.This paper presents the design, construction and location of washout hole to prevent thrombus for a Bi-VAD centrifugal pump. Results using CFD will be used to illustrate the superiority of our design concept in terms of preventing thrombus formation and hemolysis.

Passive control of a bi-ventricular assist device : an experimental and numerical investigation

For the last two decades heart disease has been the highest single cause of death for the human population. With an alarming number of patients requiring heart transplant, and donations not able to satisfy the demand, treatment looks to mechanical alternatives. Rotary Ventricular Assist Devices, VADs, are miniature pumps which can be implanted alongside the heart to assist its pumping function. These constant flow devices are smaller, more efficient and promise a longer operational life than more traditional pulsatile VADs. The development of rotary VADs has focused on single pumps assisting the left ventricle only to supply blood for the body. In many patients however, failure of both ventricles demands that an additional pulsatile device be used to support the failing right ventricle. This condition renders them hospital bound while they wait for an unlikely heart donation. Reported attempts to use two rotary pumps to support both ventricles concurrently have warned of inherent haemodynamic instability. Poor balancing of the pumps’ flow rates quickly leads to vascular congestion increasing the risk of oedema and ventricular ‘suckdown’ occluding the inlet to the pump. This thesis introduces a novel Bi-Ventricular Assist Device (BiVAD) configuration where the pump outputs are passively balanced by vascular pressure. The BiVAD consists of two rotary pumps straddling the mechanical passive controller. Fluctuations in vascular pressure induce small deflections within both pumps adjusting their outputs allowing them to maintain arterial pressure. To optimise the passive controller’s interaction with the circulation, the controller’s dynamic response is optimised with a spring, mass, damper arrangement. This two part study presents a comprehensive assessment of the prototype’s ‘viability’ as a support device. Its ‘viability’ was considered based on its sensitivity to pathogenic haemodynamics and the ability of the passive response to maintain healthy circulation. The first part of the study is an experimental investigation where a prototype device was designed and built, and then tested in a pulsatile mock circulation loop. The BiVAD was subjected to a range of haemodynamic imbalances as well as a dynamic analysis to assess the functionality of the mechanical damper. The second part introduces the development of a numerical program to simulate human circulation supported by the passively controlled BiVAD. Both investigations showed that the prototype was able to mimic the native baroreceptor response. Simulating hypertension, poor flow balancing and subsequent ventricular failure during BiVAD support allowed the passive controller’s response to be assessed. Triggered by the resulting pressure imbalance, the controller responded by passively adjusting the VAD outputs in order to maintain healthy arterial pressures. This baroreceptor-like response demonstrated the inherent stability of the auto regulating BiVAD prototype. Simulating pulmonary hypertension in the more observable numerical model, however, revealed a serious issue with the passive response. The subsequent decrease in venous return into the left heart went unnoticed by the passive controller. Meanwhile the coupled nature of the passive response not only decreased RVAD output to reduce pulmonary arterial pressure, but it also increased LVAD output. Consequently, the LVAD increased fluid evacuation from the left ventricle, LV, and so actually accelerated the onset of LV collapse. It was concluded that despite the inherently stable baroreceptor-like response of the passive controller, its lack of sensitivity to venous return made it unviable in its present configuration. The study revealed a number of other important findings. Perhaps the most significant was that the reduced pulse experienced during constant flow support unbalanced the ratio of effective resistances of both vascular circuits. Even during steady rotary support therefore, the resulting ventricle volume imbalance increased the likelihood of suckdown. Additionally, mechanical damping of the passive controller’s response successfully filtered out pressure fluctuations from residual ventricular function. Finally, the importance of recognising inertial contributions to blood flow in the atria and ventricles in a numerical simulation were highlighted. This thesis documents the first attempt to create a fully auto regulated rotary cardiac assist device. Initial results encourage development of an inlet configuration sensitive to low flow such as collapsible inlet cannulae. Combining this with the existing baroreceptor-like response of the passive controller will render a highly stable passively controlled BiVAD configuration. The prototype controller’s passive interaction with the vasculature is a significant step towards a highly stable new generation of artificial heart.