Quasi-objects and actors in the web of belief. Formation of a national nuclear waste management system: the case of Finland

Paper presented in ISA RC23 meeting, Gothenburg July 16th 2010

Measuring strategic uncertainty in coordination games

This paper explores three aspects of strategic uncertainty: its relation to risk, predictability of behavior and subjective beliefs of players. In a laboratory experiment we measure subjects certainty equivalents for three coordination games and one lottery. Behavior in coordination games is related to risk aversion, experience seeking, and age.From the distribution of certainty equivalents we estimate probabilities for successful coordination in a wide range of games. For many games, success of coordination is predictable with a reasonable error rate. The best response to observed behavior is close to the global-game solution. Comparing choices in coordination games with revealed risk aversion, we estimate subjective probabilities for successful coordination. In games with a low coordination requirement, most subjects underestimate the probability of success. In games with a high coordination requirement, most subjects overestimate this probability. Estimating probabilistic decision models, we show that the quality of predictions can be improved when individual characteristics are taken into account. Subjects behavior is consistent with probabilistic beliefs about the aggregate outcome, but inconsistent with probabilistic beliefs about individual behavior.

Priming psychic and conjuring abilities of a magic demonstration influences event interpretation and random number generation biases

Magical ideation and belief in the paranormal is considered to represent a trait-like character; people either believe in it or not. Yet, anecdotes indicate that exposure to an anomalous event can turn skeptics into believers. This transformation is likely to be accompanied by altered cognitive functioning such as impaired judgments of event likelihood. Here, we investigated whether the exposure to an anomalous event changes individuals' explicit traditional (religious) and non-traditional (e.g., paranormal) beliefs as well as cognitive biases that have previously been associated with non-traditional beliefs, e.g., repetition avoidance when producing random numbers in a mental dice task. In a classroom, 91 students saw a magic demonstration after their psychology lecture. Before the demonstration, half of the students were told that the performance was done respectively by a conjuror (magician group) or a psychic (psychic group). The instruction influenced participants' explanations of the anomalous event. Participants in the magician, as compared to the psychic group, were more likely to explain the event through conjuring abilities while the reverse was true for psychic abilities. Moreover, these explanations correlated positively with their prior traditional and non-traditional beliefs. Finally, we observed that the psychic group showed more repetition avoidance than the magician group, and this effect remained the same regardless of whether assessed before or after the magic demonstration. We conclude that pre-existing beliefs and contextual suggestions both influence people's interpretations of anomalous events and associated cognitive biases. Beliefs and associated cognitive biases are likely flexible well into adulthood and change with actual life events.

Love and rationality: on some possible rational effects of love

In this paper I defend the idea that rather than disrupting rationality, as the common-sense conception has done it, love may actually help us to develop rational ways of thinking and acting. I make the case for romantic or erotic love, since this is the kind of love that is more frequently associated with irrationality in acting and thinking. I argue that this kind of love may make us develop epistemic and practical forms of rationality. Based on an analysis of its characteristic action tendencies, I argue that love may help us to develop an instrumental form of rationality in determining the best means to achieve the object of love. It may also narrow down the number of practical considerations that may help us to achieve our goals. Finally, love may generate rational ways of belief-formation by framing the parameters taken into account in perception and attention, and by bringing into light only a small portion of the epistemic information available. Love may make us perceive reality more acutely.

IS SELF-DECEPTION PRETENSE?

I assess Tamar Gendler's (2007) account of self-deception according to which its characteristic state is not belief, but imaginative pretense. After giving an overview of the literature and presenting the conceptual puzzles engendered by the notion of self-deception, I introduce Gendler's account, which emerges as a rival to practically all extant accounts of self-deception. I object to it by first arguing that her argument for abandoning belief as the characteristic state of self-deception conflates the state of belief and the process of belief-formation when interpreting David Velleman's (2000) thesis that belief is an essentially truth-directed attitude. I then call attention to the fact that Velleman's argument for the identity of motivational role between belief and imagining, on which Gendler's argument for self-deception as pretense depends, conflates two senses of 'motivational role'-a stronger but implausible sense and a weaker but explanatorily irrelevant sense. Finally, I introduce Neil Van Leeuwen's (2009) argument to the effect that belief is the practical ground of all non-belief cognitive attitudes in circum-stances wherein the latter prompt action. I apply this framework to Gendler's account to ultimately show that imaginative pretense fails to explain the existence of voluntary actions which result from self-deception.

Believing badly

This paper explores the grounds upon which moral judgment of a person's beliefs is properly made. The beliefs in question are non-moral beliefs and the objects of moral judgment are individual instances of believing. We argue that instances of believing may be morally wrong on any of three distinct grounds: (i) by constituting a moral hazard, (ii) by being the result of immoral inquiry, or (iii) by arising from vicious inner processes of belief formation. On this way of articulating the basis of moral judgment of belief it becomes clear that rational and epistemic norms do not exhaust the kinds of normative judgment properly made of a person's state of believing. We argue that there are instances of believing that are both rational and true and yet morally wrong.

Essays in Empirical Political Economics

This thesis takes two perspectives on political institutions. From the one side, it examines the long-run effects of institutions on cultural values. From the other side, I study strategic communication, and its determinants, of politicians, a pivotal actor inside those institutions. The first chapter provides evidence for the legacy of feudalism - a set of labor coercion and migration restrictions -, on interpersonal distrust. I combining administrative data on the feudal system in the Prussian Empire (1816 – 1849) with the geo-localized survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (1980 – 2020). I show that areas with strong historical exposure to feudalism have lower levels of inter-personal trust today, by means of OLS- and mover specifications. The second chapter builds a novel dataset that includes the Twitter handles of 18,000+ politicians and 61+ million tweets from 2008 – 2021 from all levels of government. I find substantial partisan differences in Twitter adoption, Twitter activity and audience engagement. I use established tools to measure ideological polarization to provide evidence that online-polarization follows similar trends to offline-polarization, at comparable magnitude and reaches unprecedented heights in 2018 and 2021. I develop a new tool to demonstrate a marked increase in affective polarization. The third chapter tests whether politicians disseminate distortive messages when exposed to bad news. Specifically, I study the diffusion of misleading communication from pro-gun politicians in the aftermath of mass shootings. I exploit the random timing of mass shootings and analyze half a million tweets between 2010 – 2020 in an event-study design. I develop and apply state-of-the-art text analysis tools to show that pro- gun politicians seek to decrease the salience of the mass shooting through distraction and try to alter voters’ belief formation through misrepresenting the causes of the mass shootings.

Using min-sum loopy belief propagation for decentralised supply chain formation

Modern business trends such as agile manufacturing and virtual corporations require high levels of flexibility and responsiveness to consumer demand, and require the ability to quickly and efficiently select trading partners. Automated computational techniques for supply chain formation have the potential to provide significant advantages in terms of speed and efficiency over the traditional manual approach to partner selection. Automated supply chain formation is the process of determining the participants within a supply chain and the terms of the exchanges made between these participants. In this thesis we present an automated technique for supply chain formation based upon the min-sum loopy belief propagation algorithm (LBP). LBP is a decentralised and distributed message-passing algorithm which allows participants to share their beliefs about the optimal structure of the supply chain based upon their costs, capabilities and requirements. We propose a novel framework for the application of LBP to the existing state-of-the-art case of the decentralised supply chain formation problem, and extend this framework to allow for application to further novel and established problem cases. Specifically, the contributions made by this thesis are: • A novel framework to allow for the application of LBP to the decentralised supply chain formation scenario investigated using the current state-of-the-art approach. Our experimental analysis indicates that LBP is able to match or outperform this approach for the vast majority of problem instances tested. • A new solution goal for supply chain formation in which economically motivated producers aim to maximise their profits by intelligently altering their profit margins. We propose a rational pricing strategy that allows producers to earn significantly greater profits than a comparable LBP-based profitmaking approach. • An LBP-based framework which allows the algorithm to be used to solve supply chain formation problems in which goods are exchanged in multiple units, a first for a fully decentralised technique. As well as multiple-unit exchanges, we also model in this scenario realistic constraints such as factory capacities and input-to-output ratios. LBP continues to be able to match or outperform an extended version of the existing state-of-the-art approach in this scenario. • Introduction of a dynamic supply chain formation scenario in which participants are able to alter their properties or to enter or leave the process at any time. Our results suggest that LBP is able to deal easily with individual occurences of these alterations and that performance degrades gracefully when they occur in larger numbers.

Decentralised supply chain formation:a belief propagation-based approach

Decentralised supply chain formation involves determining the set of producers within a network able to supply goods to one or more consumers at the lowest cost. This problem is frequently tackled using auctions and negotiations. In this paper we show how it can be cast as an optimisation of a pairwise cost function. Optimising this class of functions is NP-hard but good approximations to the global minimum can be obtained using Loopy Belief Propagation (LBP). Here we detail a LBP-based approach to the supply chain formation problem, involving decentralised message-passing between potential participants. Our approach is evaluated against a well-known double-auction method and an optimal centralised technique, showing several improvements: it obtains better solutions for most networks that admit a competitive equilibrium Competitive equilibrium as defined in [3] is used as a means of classifying results on certain networks to allow for minor inefficiencies in their auction protocol and agent bidding strategies. while also solving problems where no competitive equilibrium exists, for which the double-auction method frequently produces inefficient solutions.

Decentralized supply chain formation using max-sum loopy belief propagation

Supply chain formation is the process by which a set of producers within a network determine the subset of these producers able to form a chain to supply goods to one or more consumers at the lowest cost. This problem has been tackled in a number of ways, including auctions, negotiations, and argumentation-based approaches. In this paper we show how this problem can be cast as an optimization of a pairwise cost function. Optimizing this class of energy functions is NP-hard but efficient approximations to the global minimum can be obtained using loopy belief propagation (LBP). Here we detail a max-sum LBP-based approach to the supply chain formation problem, involving decentralized message-passing between supply chain participants. Our approach is evaluated against a well-known decentralized double-auction method and an optimal centralized technique, showing several improvements on the auction method: it obtains better solutions for most network instances which allow for competitive equilibrium (Competitive equilibrium in Walsh and Wellman is a set of producer costs which permits a Pareto optimal state in which agents in the allocation receive non-negative surplus and agents not in the allocation would acquire non-positive surplus by participating in the supply chain) while also optimally solving problems where no competitive equilibrium exists, for which the double-auction method frequently produces inefficient solutions. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Corporate rumor activity, belief and accuracy

An integrated model relating workplace rumor activity, belief, and accuracy is proposed and tested. Senior VPs of Communications from a sample of Fortune-500 corporations and CEOs of established public relations firms were surveyed regarding rumor episodes that they had experienced. Results confirmed previous research on the role of uncertainty, anxiety, and belief in rumor activity. In addition, a reduced sense of control mediated the effects of uncertainty on anxiety, and anxiety mediated the effects of importance on rumor activity. Evidence was found for the roles of group bias in how strongly a rumor is believed. Rumor activity was also implicated in the formation of more accurate rumors. The significance of these results for rumor theory and for Public Relations practitioners is presented. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Les effets d'une formation continue tels que perçus par des enseignants sur leur sentiment d'efficacité et de leurs pratiques de l'enseignement des sciences au primaire

L'enseignement des sciences est souvent perçu, par les enseignants, comme une discipline complexe à enseigner. La formation continue permet de modifier cette perception en offrant de l'accompagnement pédagogique pour développer les pratiques d'enseignement des sciences et rehausser le sentiment d'efficacité des enseignants. Cette recherche s'intéresse aux effets d'une formation continue sur le sentiment d'efficacité des enseignants et leur enseignement des sciences au primaire. L'approche choisie est celle d'une recherche qualitative et la méthode est celle de l'étude de cas, de type exploratoire. Dans le cadre de cette recherche, six enseignants ayant suivi divers programmes de formation continue afin de développer leur pratique d'enseignement des sciences ont été rencontrés. Des entrevues et des observations (grilles basées sur l'échelle du sentiment d'efficacité des enseignants (STEBI)) sont utilisées pour la collecte de données. Les résultats de l'analyse de données indiquent, dans un premier temps, que les enseignants rencontrés perçoivent que la formation continue a des effets positifs sur leur sentiment d'efficacité, notamment en ce qui a trait à la première dimension relative à la compétence à enseigner les sciences (CE). Dans un deuxième temps, la comparaison des données des pratiques déclarées et des pratiques effectives révèlent l'apport considérable de l'engagement du milieu et de la collaboration des pairs sur le développement de la deuxième dimension relative à l'efficacité de l'enseignement (EE).

Les croyances sur l’enseignement et l’apprentissage des étudiants en formation des maîtres : enquête menant à une proposition d’intervention

Depuis le début des années 2000, les croyances font l’objet d’un intérêt particulier dans le domaine de l’éducation. Cet intérêt pour les croyances provient notamment de certains chercheurs qui se préoccupent du fait que les croyances peuvent être un obstacle à l’adoption de pratiques pédagogiques fondées sur des faits scientifiques. L’intérêt pour les croyances en éducation se situe également dans la manière d’intervenir sur celles-ci afin de faire en sorte qu’elles se rapprochent le plus possible des connaissances scientifiques sur l’enseignement et l’apprentissage. Cette étude vise à faire le portrait des croyances d’étudiants en formation des maîtres. Elle vise aussi à proposer des pistes d’intervention pour les étudiants du programme de baccalauréat en éducation préscolaire et enseignement primaire (BEPEP) à l’égard d’une croyance qui s’éloigne des connaissances scientifiques et des attentes ministérielles en éducation. Sur la base de la littérature disponible, une présentation des diverses définitions du concept de croyance que l’on retrouve dans les sciences humaines ainsi qu’une typologie des croyances et des connaissances enseignantes ont été produite. Puis, une analyse secondaire d’un questionnaire abordant les croyances des étudiants en enseignement a été réalisé afin d’isoler une croyance des étudiants du programme de BEPEP sur laquelle intervenir tout au long de la formation des étudiants. Enfin, un entretien de groupe avec le comité de programme du BEPEP a été réalisé. Les résultats révèlent que la croyance qui s'éloigne le plus des connaissances scientifiques favorables à la réussite des élèves est relative à l’intégration des élèves handicapés ou en difficulté d’adaptation ou d’apprentissage (EHDAA) en classe régulière. La littérature (Raths, 2001; Paquay, 2004; Beckers, 2007) révèle que pour favoriser le développement professionnel des futurs enseignants, il faut concevoir la formation des enseignants de manière à développer et renforcer leurs capacités et leurs aptitudes à l’autoréflexion par la pratique réflexive tout au long de la formation initiale.

Teachers Formation in Higher Education: Some Aspects under the Light of Education-Work Relations

This text is mainly aimed to address essential aspects of teacher formation in the light of education-work relations in the higher education, from our systematic experience in higher education teaching, particularly teaching and research in the field of Didactics discipline. This formulation is justified considering our concern in seeking to situate this discussion in the context of bringing together knowledge areas and the field of teaching knowledge. Still, our choice to develop such an approach in the light of work-education relationship is due to the belief about the possibilities of seeking to overcome the requirements imposed by capitalism to our educational system, within the possible contradictions of these relationships. In this context the teachers’ formation in higher education gains social and strategic importance, taking on the task of forming individuals of “action-reflection-action” in a society established historically based on the social relations which settle in the light of capital’s multiple determinations. It appears that, in this sense, the major confrontations have been given within the discussions about what to prioritize or combine in the list of criteria and content for teacher’s formation. In Didactic, we seek to emphasize discussions that we consider with a philosophical background, referring to the orientation of teaching practice in knowledge of contemporary ideological struggle; socio-historical, referring to the possibility of formation of disciplines, among them Didactic, and curriculums and references to support its guidance in the process of teacher’s formation. This context of discussion is based on the concrete teaching practice with a view to transformation and to search for new syntheses in terms of knowledge and in terms of historical reality. Then therefore, our methodological approach grounded in the dimensions of the same unit: historical materialism as posture, method and as praxis.

Brain electric correlates of strong belief in paranormal phenomena: intracerebral EEG source and regional Omega complexity analyses

The neurocognitive processes underlying the formation and maintenance of paranormal beliefs are important for understanding schizotypal ideation. Behavioral studies indicated that both schizotypal and paranormal ideation are based on an overreliance on the right hemisphere, whose coarse rather than focussed semantic processing may favor the emergence of 'loose' and 'uncommon' associations. To elucidate the electrophysiological basis of these behavioral observations, 35-channel resting EEG was recorded in pre-screened female strong believers and disbelievers during resting baseline. EEG data were subjected to FFT-Dipole-Approximation analysis, a reference-free frequency-domain dipole source modeling, and Regional (hemispheric) Omega Complexity analysis, a linear approach estimating the complexity of the trajectories of momentary EEG map series in state space. Compared to disbelievers, believers showed: more right-located sources of the beta2 band (18.5-21 Hz, excitatory activity); reduced interhemispheric differences in Omega complexity values; higher scores on the Magical Ideation scale; more general negative affect; and more hypnagogic-like reveries after a 4-min eyes-closed resting period. Thus, subjects differing in their declared paranormal belief displayed different active, cerebral neural populations during resting, task-free conditions. As hypothesized, believers showed relatively higher right hemispheric activation and reduced hemispheric asymmetry of functional complexity. These markers may constitute the neurophysiological basis for paranormal and schizotypal ideation.