Innovative tools to address drought risk in grazing lands

Drought spells can impose severe impacts in most vulnerable farms. It is well known that uninsured exposure exacerbates income inequality in farming systems. However, high administrative costs of traditional insurance hinder small farmers? access to risk management tools. The existence of moral hazard and systemic risk prevents the implementation of traditional insurance programs to address drought risk in rural areas. Innovative technologies like satellite images are being used to derive vegetation index which are highly correlated with drought impacts. The implementation of this technology in agricultural insurance may help to overcome some of the limitations of traditional insurance. However, basis risk has been identified as one of the main problems that hinder the acceptance of index insurance. In this paper we focus on the analyses of basis risk under different contract options in the grazing lands of the Araucanía region. A vegetation index database is used to develop an actuarial insurance model and estimate risk premiums for moderate and severe drought coverage. Risk premium sharply increases with risk coverage. In contrast with previous findings in the literature, our results are not conclusive and show that lowering the coverage level does not necessarily imply a reduction in basis risk. Further analyses of the relation between contract design and basis risk is a promising area of research that may render an important social utility for most vulnerable farming systems.

Exploiting satellite-based rainfall for weather index insurance: the challenges of spatial and temporal aggregation

Lack of access to insurance exacerbates the impact of climate variability on smallholder famers in Africa. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, weather index insurance (WII) pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. In principle, WII could be provided to farmers throughout Africa. There are two data-related hurdles to this. First, most farmers do not live close enough to a rain gauge with sufficiently long record of observations. Second, mismatches between weather indices and yield may expose farmers to uncompensated losses, and insurers to unfair payouts – a phenomenon known as basis risk. In essence, basis risk results from complexities in the progression from meteorological drought (rainfall deficit) to agricultural drought (low soil moisture). In this study, we use a land-surface model to describe the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought. We demonstrate that spatial and temporal aggregation of rainfall results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a reduction in basis risk. We then use an advanced statistical method to show how optimal aggregation of satellite-based rainfall estimates can reduce basis risk, enabling remotely sensed data to be utilized robustly for WII.

Estrategias innovadoras para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas ganaderos extensivos

La vulnerabilidad de los sistemas ganaderos de pastoreo pone en evidencia la necesidad de herramientas para evaluar y mitigar los efectos de la sequía. El avance en la teledetección ha despertado el interés por explotar potenciales aplicaciones, y está dando lugar a un intenso desarrollo de innovaciones en distintos campos. Una de estas áreas es la gestión del riesgo climático, en donde la utilización de índices de vegetación permite la evaluación de la sequía. En esta investigación, se analiza el impacto de la sequía y se evalúa el potencial de nuevas tecnologías como la teledetección para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas de ganadería extensiva. Para ello, se desarrollan tres aplicaciones: (i) evaluar el impacto económico de la sequía en una explotación ganadera extensiva de la dehesa de Andalucía, (ii) elaborar mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequía en pastos de Chile y (iii) diseñar y evaluar el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. En la primera aplicación, se diseña un modelo dinámico y estocástico que integra aspectos climáticos, ecológicos, agronómicos y socioeconómicos para evaluar el riesgo de sequía. El modelo simula una explotación ganadera tipo de la dehesa de Andalucía para el período 1999-2010. El método de Análisis Histórico y la simulación de MonteCarlo se utilizan para identificar los principales factores de riesgo de la explotación, entre los que destacan, los periodos de inicios del verano e inicios de invierno. Los resultados muestran la existencia de un desfase temporal entre el riesgo climático y riesgo económico, teniendo este último un periodo de duración más extenso en el tiempo. También, revelan que la intensidad, frecuencia y duración son tres atributos cruciales que determinan el impacto económico de la sequía. La estrategia de reducción de la carga ganadera permite aminorar el riesgo, pero conlleva una disminución en el margen bruto de la explotación. La segunda aplicación está dedicada a la elaboración de mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequia en pastos de Chile. Para ello, se propone y desarrolla un índice de riesgo económico (IRESP) sencillo de interpretar y replicable, que integra factores de riesgo y estrategias de adaptación para obtener una medida del Valor en Riesgo, es decir, la máxima pérdida esperada en un año con un nivel de significación del 5%.La representación espacial del IRESP pone en evidencia patrones espaciales y diferencias significativas en la vulnerabilidad a la sequía a lo largo de Chile. Además, refleja que la vulnerabilidad no siempre esta correlacionada con el riesgo climático y demuestra la importancia de considerar las estrategias de adaptación. Las medidas de autocorrelación espacial revelan que el riesgo sistémico es considerablemente mayor en el sur que en el resto de zonas. Los resultados demuestran que el IRESP transmite información pertinente y, que los mapas de vulnerabilidad pueden ser una herramienta útil en el diseño de políticas y toma de decisiones para la gestión del riesgo de sequía. La tercera aplicación evalúa el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. Para lo cual, se desarrolla un modelo estocástico para estimar la prima actuarialmente justa del seguro y se proponen y evalúan pautas alternativas para mejorar el diseño del contrato. Se aborda el riesgo base, el principal problema de los seguros indexados identificado en la literatura y, que está referido a la correlación imperfecta del índice con las pérdidas de la explotación. Para ello, se sigue un enfoque bayesiano que permite evaluar el impacto en el riesgo base de las pautas de diseño propuestas: i) una zonificación por clúster que considera aspectos espacio-temporales, ii) un período de garantía acotado a los ciclos fenológicos del pasto y iii) umbral de garantía. Los resultados muestran que tanto la zonificación como el periodo de garantía reducen el riesgo base considerablemente. Sin embargo, el umbral de garantía tiene un efecto ambiguo sobre el riesgo base. Por otra parte, la zonificación por clúster contribuye a aminorar el riesgo sistémico que enfrentan las aseguradoras. Estos resultados han puesto de manifiesto que un buen diseño de contrato puede tener un doble dividendo, por un lado aumentar su utilidad y, por otro, reducir el coste del seguro. Un diseño de contrato eficiente junto con los avances en la teledetección y un adecuado marco institucional son los pilares básicos para el buen funcionamiento de un programa de seguro. Las nuevas tecnologías ofrecen un importante potencial para la innovación en la gestión del riesgo climático. Los avances en este campo pueden proporcionar importantes beneficios sociales en los países en desarrollo y regiones vulnerables, donde las herramientas para gestionar eficazmente los riesgos sistémicos como la sequía pueden ser de gran ayuda para el desarrollo. The vulnerability of grazing livestock systems highlights the need for tools to assess and mitigate the adverse impact of drought. The recent and rapid progress in remote sensing has awakened an interest for tapping into potential applications, triggering intensive efforts to develop innovations in a number of spheres. One of these areas is climate risk management, where the use of vegetation indices facilitates assessment of drought. This research analyzes drought impacts and evaluates the potential of new technologies such as remote sensing to manage drought risk in extensive livestock systems. Three essays in drought risk management are developed to: (i) assess the economic impact of drought on a livestock farm in the Andalusian Dehesa, (ii) build drought vulnerability maps in Chilean grazing lands, and (iii) design and evaluate the potential of an index insurance policy to address the risk of drought in grazing lands in Coquimbo, Chile. In the first essay, a dynamic and stochastic farm model is designed combining climate, agronomic, socio-economic and ecological aspects to assess drought risk. The model is developed to simulate a representative livestock farm in the Dehesa of Andalusia for the time period 1999-2010. Burn analysis and MonteCarlo simulation methods are used to identify the significance of various risk sources at the farm. Most notably, early summer and early winter are identified as periods of peak risk. Moreover, there is a significant time lag between climate and economic risk and this later last longer than the former. It is shown that intensity, frequency and duration of the drought are three crucial attributes that shape the economic impact of drought. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the sustainability of farm management strategies and demonstrates that lowering the stocking rate reduces farmer exposure to drought risk but entails a reduction in the expected gross margin. The second essay, mapping drought vulnerability in Chilean grazing lands, proposes and builds an index of economic risk (IRESP) that is replicable and simple to interpret. This methodology integrates risk factors and adaptation strategies to deliver information on Value at Risk, maximum expected losses at 5% significance level. Mapping IRESP provides evidence about spatial patterns and significant differences in drought vulnerability across Chilean grazing lands. Spatial autocorrelation measures reveal that systemic risk is considerably larger in the South as compared to Northern or Central Regions. Furthermore, it is shown that vulnerability is not necessarily correlated with climate risk and that adaptation strategies do matter. These results show that IRESP conveys relevant information and that vulnerability maps may be useful tools to assess policy design and decision-making in drought risk management. The third essay develops a stochastic model to estimate the actuarially fair premium and evaluates the potential of an indexed insurance policy to manage drought risk in Coquimbo, a relevant livestock farming region of Chile. Basis risk refers to the imperfect correlation of the index and farmer loses and is identified in the literature as a main limitation of index insurance. A Bayesian approach is proposed to assess the impact on basis risk of alternative guidelines in contract design: i) A cluster zoning that considers space-time aspects, ii) A guarantee period bounded to fit phenological cycles, and iii) the triggering index threshold. Results show that both the proposed zoning and guarantee period considerably reduces basis risk. However, the triggering index threshold has an ambiguous effect on basis risk. On the other hand, cluster zoning contributes to ameliorate systemic risk faced by the insurer. These results highlighted that adequate contract design is important and may result in double dividend. On the one hand, increasing farmers’ utility and, secondly, reducing the cost of insurance. An efficient contract design coupled with advances in remote sensing and an appropriate institutional framework are the basis for an efficient operation of an insurance program. The new technologies offer significant potential for innovation in climate risk managements. Progress in this field is capturing increasing attention and may provide important social gains in developing countries and vulnerable regions where the tools to efficiently manage systemic risks, such as drought, may be a means to foster development.

Integração espacial e eficiência do hedge no mercado sul-americano de soja: comparações entre Brasil e Argentina

Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar o potencial de desenvolvimento do contrato futuro de soja no Brasil, por meio da atração de hedgers brasileiros e argentinos. Para tanto, faz-se necessário conhecer os padrões das conexões dos preços entre as regiões analisadas. Nesse sentido, o Capítulo 2 investigou a integração espacial do mercado físico de soja no Brasil (região de Sorriso, no Mato Grosso) e na Argentina (região de Rosário, na província de Santa Fé) e comparou ao grau de integração com os Estados Unidos. Foram empregados modelos autorregressivos com threshold (TAR e M-TAR) e modelos vetoriais de correção de erros, lineares e com threshold (VECM e TVECM), visando captar os efeitos dos custos de transação sobre a integração espacial entre essas regiões. Os resultados apontaram que o mercado de soja brasileiro, argentino e norte-americano são integrados, mesmo considerando-se os efeitos dos custos de transação sobre as decisões de arbitragem espacial. Consequentemente, os preços da soja no mercado internacional tendem a refletir o comportamento dos principais países produtores. Apesar disso, o tempo de transmissão de choques de preços mostrou-se, em geral, menor entre Brasil e Argentina, refletindo a proximidade geográfica. Apontou-se também o comportamento assimétrico da transmissão desses choques, uma vez que choques positivos sobre a relação de longo prazo tendem a ser mais persistentes que os negativos. Se o contrato futuro reflete o comportamento de preços de um único mercado físico integrado, deve-se então esperar que o risco de base seja menor para este mercado e, portanto, que a eficiência do hedge seja maior. No Capítulo 3, o objetivo se constituiu em verificar se há maior eficiência no hedge realizado com os contratos com vencimento em março na CME em relação à BM&FBOVESPA, considerando-se as relações de longo prazo entre os preços à vista e futuros, bem como a dinâmica na estrutura de covariâncias condicionais, por meio de modelos de correção de erros (VECM) e modelos de heterocedasticidade condicional generalizados com correlação condicional dinâmica (DCC-GARCH). Os resultados mostraram que, em geral, a introdução da dinâmica nos segundos momentos das distribuições dos erros tende a aumentar a eficiência da estratégia de hedge. Além disso, foi observado que os produtores de Sorriso tendem a obter melhores condições de hedge na CME, embora haja redução da variância ao se operar na BM&FBOVESPA. Por outro lado, a eficiência do hedge para os produtores de Rosário foi significativamente maior na BM&FBOVESPA do que na CME, o que indica o mercado potencial de hedgers argentinos para negociar o contrato futuro de soja local no Brasil.

How do Small Players Deduce Beliefs about Uncertainty? A Look at Texas Shale Oil Investments

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Cadmium Uptake by Lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) as Basis for Derivation of Risk Limits in Soils

The availability and uptake of Cd by lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) in two common tropical soils (before and after liming) were studied in order to derive human health-based risk soil concentration. Cadmium concentrations ranging from 1 to 12 mg kg(-1) were added to samples from a clayey Oxisol and a sandy-loam Ultisol under glasshouse conditions. After incubation, a soil sample was taken from each pot, the concentration of Cd in the soil was determined, lettuce was grown during 36 d, and the edible parts were harvested and analyzed for Cd. A positive linear correlation was observed between total soil Cd and the Cd concentration in lettuce. The amount of Cd absorbed by lettuce grown in the Ultisol was about twice the amount absorbed in the Oxisol. Liming increased the soil pH and slightly reduced Cd availability and uptake. CaCl2 extraction was better than DTPA to reflect differences in binding strength of Cd between limed and unlimed soils. Risk Cd concentrations in the Ultisol were lower than in the Oxisol, reflecting the greater degree of uptake from the Ultisol. The derived risk Cd values were dependent on soil type and the exposure scenario.

A 3-center comparison of 1-year mortality outcomes between transcatheter aortic valve implantation and surgical aortic valve replacement on the basis of propensity score matching among intermediate-risk surgical patients

This study sought to compare all-cause mortality in patients at intermediate surgical risk undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) or surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR).

Relationship between changes in insulin sensitivity and associated cardiovascular disease risk factors in thiazolidinedione-treated, insulin-resistant, nondiabetic individuals: pioglitazone versus rosiglitazone

This study compared the effects of administering rosiglitazone (RSG) vs pioglitazone (PIO) oil cardiovascular disease risk factors in insulin-resistant. nondiabetic individuals with no apparent disease. Twenty-two nondiabetic, apparently healthy individuals, classified as being insulin resistant oil the basis of a steady-state plasma glucose concentration of at least 10 mmol/L during the insulin suppression test, were treated with either RSG or 1110 for 3 months. Measurements were made before and after drug treatment of weight; blood pressure; fasting and daylong glucose, insulin, and free fatty acid (FFA) levels; and lipid and lipoprotein concentrations. Insulin sensitivity (steady-state plasma glucose concentration) significantly improved in both treatment groups, associated with significant decreases in daylong plasma concentrations of glucose, insulin, and FFA. Diastolic blood pressure fell somewhat in both groups, and this change reached significance in those receiving PIO. Improvement in lipid metabolism was confined to the PIO-treated group, signified by a significant decrease in plasma triglyceride concentration, whereas triglyceride concentration did not decline in the RSG-treated group, and these individuals also had increases in total (P = .047) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (P = .07). In conclusion, RSG and PIO appear to have comparable abilities to improve insulin sensitivity and lower daylong glucose, insulin, and FFA concentrations in nondiabetic, insulin-resistant individuals. However, despite these similarities, their effects on lipoprotein metabolism seem to be quite different, with beneficial effects confined to PIO-treated individuals. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modulation of Mediotemporal and Ventrostriatal Function in Humans by Delta 9-Tetrahydrocannabinol A Neural Basis for the Effects of Cannabis sativa on Learning and Psychosis

Context: Cannabis sativa use can impair verbal learning, provoke acute psychosis, and increase the risk of schizophrenia. It is unclear where C sativa acts in the human brain to modulate verbal learning and to induce psychotic symptoms. Objectives: To investigate the effects of 2 main psychoactive constituents of C sativa, Delta 9-tetrahydrocannabinol (Delta 9-THC) and cannabidiol, on regional brain function during verbal paired associate learning. Design: Subjects were studied on 3 separate occasions using a block design functional magnetic resonance imaging paradigm while performing a verbal paired associate learning task. Each imaging session was preceded by the ingestion of Delta 9-THC (10 mg), cannabidiol (600 mg), or placebo in a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, repeated-measures, within-subject design. Setting: University research center. Participants: Fifteen healthy, native English-speaking, right-handed men of white race/ethnicity who had used C sativa 15 times or less and had minimal exposure to other illicit drugs in their lifetime. Main Outcome Measures: Regional brain activation ( blood oxygen level-dependent response), performance in a verbal learning task, and objective and subjective ratings of psychotic symptoms, anxiety, intoxication, and sedation. Results: Delta 9-Tetrahydrocannabinol increased psychotic symptoms and levels of anxiety, intoxication, and sedation, whereas no significant effect was noted on these parameters following administration of cannabidiol. Performance in the verbal learning task was not significantly modulated by either drug. Administration of Delta 9-THC augmented activation in the parahippocampal gyrus during blocks 2 and 3 such that the normal linear decrement in activation across repeated encoding blocks was no longer evident. Delta 9-Tetrahydrocannabinol also attenuated the normal time-dependent change in ventrostriatal activation during retrieval of word pairs, which was directly correlated with concurrently induced psychotic symptoms. In contrast, administration of cannabidiol had no such effect. Conclusion: The modulation of mediotemporal and ventrostriatal function by Delta 9-THC may underlie the effects of C sativa on verbal learning and psychotic symptoms, respectively.

An Australian twin study of the genetic basis of preeclampsia and eclampsia

OBJECTIVE: We investigated maternal versus fetal genetic causes of preeclampsia and eclampsia by assessing concordance between monozygotic and dizygotic female co-twins, between female partners of male monozygotic and dizygotic twin pairs, and between female twins and partners of their male co-twins in dizygotic opposite-sex pairs. STUDY DESIGN: Two large birth cohorts of volunteer Australian female twin pairs (N = 1504 pairs and N = 858 pairs) were screened and interviewed, and available medical and hospital records were obtained and reviewed where indicated, with diagnoses assigned according to predetermined criteria. RESULTS: With strict diagnostic criteria used for preeclampsia and eclampsia, no concordant female twin pairs were found. Collapsing diagnoses of definite, probable, or possible preeclampsia or eclampsia resulted in very low genetic recurrence risk estimates. CONCLUSION: Results from these two cohorts of female twin pairs do not support clear, solely maternal genetic influences on preeclampsia and eclampsia. Numbers of parous female partners of male twins were too low for conclusions to be drawn regarding paternal transmission.

A single nucleotide polymorphism in the 5' untranslated region of RAD51 and risk of cancer among BRCA1/2 mutation carriers

RAD51 colocalizes with both BRCA1 and BRCA2, and genetic variants in RAD51 would be candidate BRCA1/2 modifiers. We searched for RAD51 polymorphisms by sequencing 20 individuals. We compared the polymorphism allele frequencies between female BRCA1/2 mutation carriers with and without breast or ovarian cancer and between population-based ovarian cancer cases with BRCA1/2 mutations to cases and controls without mutations. We discovered two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at positions 135 g-->c and 172 g-->t of the 5' untranslated region. In an initial group of BRCA1/2 mutation carriers, 14 (21%) of 67 breast cancer cases carried a c allele at RAD51:135 g-->c, whereas 8 (7%) of 119 women without breast cancer carried this allele. In a second set of 466 mutation carriers from three centers, the association of RAD51:135 g-->c with breast cancer risk was not confirmed. Analyses restricted to the 216 BRCA2 mutation carriers, however, showed a statistically significant association of the 135 c allele with the risk of breast cancer (adjusted odds ratio, 3.2; 95% confidence limit, 1.4-40). BRCA1/2 mutation carriers with ovarian cancer were only about one half as likely to carry the RAD51:135 g-->c SNP. Analysis of the RAD51:135 g-->c SNP in 738 subjects from an Israeli ovarian cancer case-control study was consistent with a lower risk of ovarian cancer among BRCA1/2 mutation carriers with the c allele. We have identified a RAD51 5' untranslated region SNP that may be associated with an increased risk of breast cancer and a lower risk of ovarian cancer among BRCA2 mutation carriers. The biochemical basis of this risk modifier is currently unknown.

The ecological basis of life history variation in marsupials

Our understanding of the diversity of mammalian life histories is based almost exclusively on eutherian mammals, in which the slow-fast continuum persists even after controlling for effects of body size and phylogeny. In this paper, we use modern comparative methods to test the extent to which this eutherian-based framework can be extrapolated to metatherian mammals. First, we examine the pattern of covariation among life history traits, and second, we test for correlations between variation in life history and variation in six candidate ecological variables: type of diet, extent of intraspecific competition, risk of juvenile mortality, diurnal pattern of activity, arboreality, and rainfall pattern. Even when controlling for body size and phylogeny, we observe a slow-fast continuum in metatherian mammals. Some parameters involved are different from those identified by studies of eutherians, but the underlying relationships among longevity, fecundity, and age at maturity persist. We also show that overall variation in a key life history variable, reproductive output (measured by annual reproductive rate and litter size), is significantly related to variation in type of diet, with a foliage-rich diet being associated with low fecundity. This is interesting because, although ecological correlations have been found within some eutherian subgroups, modern comparative approaches have failed to reveal robust ecological correlates of overall life history diversity in eutherians. Copyright ESA. All rights reserved.

Biological determinants of extinction risk: why are smaller species less vulnerable?

It is becoming increasingly clear that species of smaller body size tend to be less vulnerable to contemporary extinction threats than larger species, but few studies have examined the mechanisms underlying this pattern. In this paper, data for the Australian terrestrial mammal fauna are used to ask whether higher reproductive output or smaller home ranges can explain the reduced extinction risk of smaller species. Extinct and endangered species do indeed have smaller litters and larger home ranges for their body size than expected under a null model. In multiple regressions, however, only litter size is a significant predictor of extinction risk once body size and phylogeny are controlled for. Larger litters contribute to fast population growth, and are probably part of the reason that smaller species are less extinction-prone. The effect of litter size varies between the mesic coastal regions and the and interior of Australia, indicating that the environment a species inhabits mediates the effect of biology on extinction risk. These results suggest that predicting extinction risk from biological traits is likely to be a complex task which must consider explicitly interactions between biology and environment.