On the timing of balance of payments crises: Disaggregated information and interest rate policy

This paper proposes a dynamic framework to study the timing of balance of paymentscrises. The model incorporates two main ingredients: (i) investors have private information; (ii)investors interact in a dynamic setting, weighing the high returns on domestic assets against the incentives to pull out before the devaluation. The model shows that the presence of disaggregated information delays the onset of BOP crises, giving rise to discrete devaluations. It also shows that high interest rates can be eective in delaying and possibly avoiding the abandonment of the peg. The optimal policy is to raise interest rates sharply as fundamentals become very weak. However, this policy is time inconsistent, suggesting a role for commitment devices such as currency boards or IMF pressure.

Greenhouse gas emissions and energy balance of palm oil biofuel

The search for alternatives to fossil fuels is boosting interest in biodiesel production. Among the crops used to produce biodiesel, palm trees stand out due to their high productivity and positive energy balance. This work assesses life cycle emissions and the energy balance of biodiesel production from palm oil in Brazil. The results are compared through a meta-analysis to previous published studies: Wood and Corley (1991) [Wood BJ, Corley RH. The energy balance of oil palm cultivation. In: PORIM intl. palm oil conference agriculture; 1991.], Malaysia; Yusoff and Hansen (2005) [Yusoff S. Hansen SB. Feasibility study of performing an life cycle assessment on crude palm oil production in Malaysia. International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment 2007;12:50-8], Malaysia; Angarita et al. (2009) [Angarita EE, Lora EE, Costa RE, Torres EA. The energy balance in the palm oil-derived methyl ester (PME) life cycle for the cases in Brazil and Colombia. Renewable Energy 2009;34:2905-13], Colombia; Pleanjai and Gheewala (2009) [Pleanjai S. Gheewala SH. Full chain energy analysis of biodiesel production from palm oil in Thailand. Applied Energy 2009;86:S209-14], Thailand; and Yee et al. (2009) [Yee KF, Tan KT, Abdullah AZ, Lee la. Life cycle assessment of palm biodiesel: revealing facts and benefits for sustainability. Applied Energy 2009;86:S189-96], Malaysia. In our study, data for the agricultural phase, transport, and energy content of the products and co-products were obtained from previous assessments done in Brazil. The energy intensities and greenhouse gas emission factors were obtained from the Simapro 7.1.8. software and other authors. These factors were applied to the inputs and outputs listed in the selected studies to render them comparable. The energy balance for our study was 1:5.37. In comparison the range for the other studies is between 1:3.40 and 1:7.78. Life cycle emissions determined in our assessment resulted in 1437 kg CO(2)e/ha, while our analysis based on the information provided by other authors resulted in 2406 kg CO(2)e/ha, on average. The Angarita et al. (2009) [Angarita EE, Lora EE, Costa RE, Torres EA. The energy balance in the palm oil-derived methyl ester (PME) life cycle for the cases in Brazil and Colombia. Renewable Energy 2009:34:2905-13] study does not report emissions. When compared to diesel on a energy basis, avoided emissions due to the use of biodiesel account for 80 g CO(2)e/MJ. Thus, avoided life Cycle emissions associated with the use of biodiesel yield a net reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. We also assessed the carbon balance between a palm tree plantation, including displaced emissions from diesel, and a natural ecosystem. Considering the carbon balance outcome plus life cycle emissions the payback time for a tropical forest is 39 years. The result published by Gibbs et al. (2008) [Gibbs HK, Johnston M, Foley JA, Holloway T, Monfreda C, Ramankutty N, et al., Carbon payback times for crop-based biofuel expansion in the tropics: the effects of changing yield and technology. Environmental Research Letters 2008;3:10], which ignores life cycle emissions, determined a payback range for biodiesel production between 30 and 120 years. Crown Copyright (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Polymorphism, crystallinity and hydrophilic-lipophilic balance of stearic acid and stearic acid-capric/caprylic triglyceride matrices for production of stable nanoparticles

There is an increasing interest in lipid nanoparticles because of their suitability for several administration routes. Thus, it becomes even more relevant the physicochemical characterization of lipid materials with respect to their polymorphism, lipid miscibility and stability, as well as the assessment of the effect of surfactant on the type and structure of these nanoparticles. This work focuses on the physicochemical characterization of lipid matrices composed of pure stearic acid or of mixtures of stearic acid-capric/caprylic triglycerides, for drug delivery. The lipids were analyzed by Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC), Wide Angle X-ray Diffraction (WAXD), Polarized Light Microscopy (PLM) and hydrophilic-lipophilic balance (HLB) in combination with selected surfactants to determine the best solid-to-liquid ratio. Based on the results obtained by DSC and WAXD, the selected qualitative and quantitative composition contributed for the production of stable nanoparticles, since the melting and the tempering processes provided important information on the thermodynamic stability of solid lipid matrices. The best HLB value obtained for stearic acid-capric/caprylic triglycerides was 13.8, achieved after combining these lipids with accepted surfactants (trioleate sorbitan and polysorbate 80 in the ratio of 10:90). The proposed combinations were shown useful to obtain a stable emulsion to be used as intermediate form for the production of lipid nanoparticles. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Balance of payment crises and capital flows : the role of liquidity

A model of externaI CrISIS is deveIoped focusing on the interaction between Iiquidity creation by financiaI intermediaries and foreign exchange collapses. The intermediaries' role of transforming maturities is shown to result in larger movements of capital and a higher probability of crisis. This resembles the observed cycle in capital fiows: large infiows, crisis and abrupt outfiows. The mo deI highlights how adverse productivity and international interest rate shocks can be magnified by the behavior of individual foreign investors linked together through their deposits in the intermediaries. An eventual collapse of the exchange rate can link investors' behavior even further. The basic model is then extended, quite naturally, to study the effects of capital fiow contagion between countries.

Interleukin 10 and tumor necrosis factor-alpha in pregnancy: aspects of interest in clinical obstetrics

The purpose of this study was to review the literature regarding the action of the cytokines interleukin 10 (IL-10) and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) in pregnancy and to emphasize the factors that are of interest to clinical obstetrics. The literature highlights several actions of IL-10 and TNF-α during pregnancy. The actions of these cytokines seem to be antagonistic and dependent on the balance between them, which is orchestrated by the specific immunosuppressive action of IL-10. TNF-α has a characteristic inflammatory action, and it is an additional diabetogenic factor in pregnancy. The loss of the control of the production of these cytokines, with increase of TNF-α, is related to the risk for developing obstetric complications, particularly recurrent fetal loss, gestational diabetes mellitus, hypertensive syndromes, and fetal growth restriction. However, study results are controversial and are not clearly defined. These issues are attributed to the heterogeneity of the studies, particularly regarding their sample sizes and sources, the evaluation methods, and the multiplicity of factors and conditions that influence cytokine production. These questions are fundamental and should be addressed in future investigations to obtain more consistent results that can be applied to obstetric practice.

Fluoride Concentrations In The Water Of Maringá, Brazil, Considering The Benefit/risk Balance Of Caries And Fluorosis.

Current Brazilian law regarding water fluoridation classification is dichotomous with respect to the risks of and benefits for oral diseases, and fluoride (F) concentrations less than 0.6 or above 0.8 mg F/L are considered outside the normal limits. Thus, the law does not consider that both caries and fluorosis are dependent on the dosage and duration of fluoride exposure because they are both chronic diseases. Therefore, this study evaluated the quality of water fluoridation in Maringá, PR, Brazil, considering a new classification for the concentration of F in water the supply, based on the anticaries benefit and risk of fluorosis (CECOL/USP, 2011). Water samples (n = 325) were collected monthly over one year from 28 distribution water networks: 20 from treatment plants and 8 from artesian wells. F concentrations were determined using a specific ion electrode. The average F concentration was 0.77 mg F/L (ppm F), ranging from 0.44 to 1.22 mg F/L. Considering all of the water samples analyzed, 83.7% of them presented from 0.55 to 0.84 mg F/L, and according to the new classification used, they would provide maximum anticaries benefit with a low risk of fluorosis. This percentage was lower (75.4%) in the water samples supplied from artesian wells than from those distributed by the treatment plant (86%). In conclusion, based on the new classification of water F concentrations, the quality of water fluoridation in Maringá is adequate and is within the range of the best balance between risk and benefit.

Angiotensin receptor blockade improves the net balance of cardiac Ca(2+) handling-related proteins in sympathetic hyperactivity-induced heart failure

Aims: The clinical benefits of angiotensin II type 1 (AT1) receptor blockers (ARB) in heart failure (HF) include cardiac anti-remodeling and improved ventricular function. However, the cellular mechanisms underlying the benefits of ARB on ventricular function need to be better clarified. In the present manuscript, we evaluated the effects of AT1 receptor blockade on the net balance of Ca(2+) handling proteins in hearts of mice lacking alpha(2A) and alpha(2C) adrenoceptors (alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO), which develop sympathetic hyperactivity (SH) induced-HF. Main methods: A cohort of male wild-type (WT) and congenic alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO mice in a C57BL6/J genetic background (5-7 mo of age) was randomly assigned to receive either placebo or ARB (Losartan, 10 mg/kg for 8wks). Ventricular function (VF) was assessed by echocardiography, and cardiac myocyte width and ventricular fibrosis by a computer-assisted morphometric system. Sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca(2+) ATPase (SERCA2), phospholamban (PLN), phospho-Ser(16)-PLN, phospho-Thr(17)-PLN, phosphatase 1 (PP1), Na(+)-Ca(2+) exchanger (NCX), Ca(2+)/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase 11 (CaMKII) and phospho-Thr(286)-CaMKII were analyzed by Western blot. Key findings: alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO mice displayed ventricular dysfunction, cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and cardiac fibrosis paralleled by decreased SERCA2 and increased phospho-Thr(17)-PLN, CaMKII, phospho-Thr(286)-CaMKII and NCX levels. ARB induced anti-cardiac remodeling effect and improved VF in alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO associated with increased SERCA2 and phospho-Ser(16)-PLN levels, and SERCA2:NCX ratio. Additionally, ARB decreased phospho-Thr(17)-PLN levels as well as reestablished NCX, CaMKII and phospho-Thr(286)-CaMKII toward WT levels. Significance: Altogether, these data provide new insights on intracellular Ca(2+) regulatory mechanisms underlying improved ventricular function by ARB therapy in HF. (c) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Real exchange rate and elasticity of labour supply in a balance-of-payments-constrained macrodynamics

A macrodynamic model is proposed in which the real exchange rate and the elasticity of labour supply interact defining different trajectories of growth and income distribution in a developing economy. Growth depends on imports of capital goods which are paid with exports (there are no capital flows) and hence is constrained by equilibrium in current account. The role of the elasticity of labour supply is to prevent the real exchange rate from appreciating as the economy grows, thereby sustaining international competitiveness. The model allows for endogenous technological change and considers the impact of migration from the subsistence to the modern sector on the cumulative (Kaldor-Verdoorn) process of learning.

Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall`s law

This paper contributes to the literature on balance-of-payments constrained growth by investigating how structural change identified with changes in the sectoral composition of exports and imports affects the external constraint We test both the original and a multisectoral version of Thirlwall`s law for a sample of Latin American and Asian countries The original Thirlwall s law is found to hold for all sample countries except South Korea, whereas the multisectoral analogue holds for all of them As the sectoral composition of exports and imports is found to matter for growth we analyze the evolution of each country`s weighted trade income elasticities

The economic determinants of the Brazilian nominal term structure of interest rates

The purpose of this study is to identify the effects of monetary policy and macroeconomic shocks on the dynamics of the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. We estimate a near-VAR model under the identification scheme proposed by Christiano et al. (1996, 1999). The results resemble those of the US economy: monetary policy shocks that flatten the term structure of interest rates. We find that monetary policy shocks in Brazil explain a significantly larger share of the dynamics of the term structure than in the USA. Finally, we analyse the importance of standard macroeconomic variables (e. g. GDP, inflation and measure of country risk) to the dynamics of the term structure in Brazil.

Analyzing the connectivity between regions of interest: An approach based on cluster Granger causality for NRI data analysis

The identification, modeling, and analysis of interactions between nodes of neural systems in the human brain have become the aim of interest of many studies in neuroscience. The complex neural network structure and its correlations with brain functions have played a role in all areas of neuroscience, including the comprehension of cognitive and emotional processing. Indeed, understanding how information is stored, retrieved, processed, and transmitted is one of the ultimate challenges in brain research. In this context, in functional neuroimaging, connectivity analysis is a major tool for the exploration and characterization of the information flow between specialized brain regions. In most functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies, connectivity analysis is carried out by first selecting regions of interest (ROI) and then calculating an average BOLD time series (across the voxels in each cluster). Some studies have shown that the average may not be a good choice and have suggested, as an alternative, the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to extract the principal eigen-time series from the ROI(s). In this paper, we introduce a novel approach called cluster Granger analysis (CGA) to study connectivity between ROIs. The main aim of this method was to employ multiple eigen-time series in each ROI to avoid temporal information loss during identification of Granger causality. Such information loss is inherent in averaging (e.g., to yield a single ""representative"" time series per ROI). This, in turn, may lead to a lack of power in detecting connections. The proposed approach is based on multivariate statistical analysis and integrates PCA and partial canonical correlation in a framework of Granger causality for clusters (sets) of time series. We also describe an algorithm for statistical significance testing based on bootstrapping. By using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the proposed approach outperforms conventional Granger causality analysis (i.e., using representative time series extracted by signal averaging or first principal components estimation from ROIs). The usefulness of the CGA approach in real fMRI data is illustrated in an experiment using human faces expressing emotions. With this data set, the proposed approach suggested the presence of significantly more connections between the ROIs than were detected using a single representative time series in each ROI. (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lack of galectin-3 alters the balance of innate immune cytokines and confers resistance to Rhodococcus equi infection

Galectin-3 is a p-galactoside-binding lectin implicated in the fine-tuning of innate immunity. Rhodococcus equi, a facultative intracellular bacterium of macrophages, causes severe granulomatous bronchopneumonia in young horses and immunocompromised humans. The aim of this study is to investigate the role of galectin-3 in the innate resistance mechanism against R. equi infection. The bacterial challenge of galectin-3-deficient mice (gal3(-/-)) and their wild-type counterpart (gal3(+/+)) revealed that the LD50 for the gal3(-/-) mice was about seven times higher than that for the gal3(+/+) mice. When challenged with a sublethal dose, gal3(-/-) mice showed lower bacteria counts and higher production of IL-12 and IFN-gamma production, besides exhibiting a delayed although increased inflammatory reaction. Gal3(-/-) macrophages exhibited a decreased frequency of bacterial replication and survival, and higher transcript levels of IL-1 beta, IL-6, IL-10, TLR2 and MyD88. R. equi-infected gal3(+/+) macrophages showed decreased expression of TLR2, whereas R. equi-infected gal3(-/-) macrophages showed enhanced expression of this receptor. Furthermore, galectin-3 deficiency in macrophages may be responsible for the higher IL-1 beta serum levels detected in infected gal3(-/-) mice. Therefore galectin-3 may exert a regulatory role in innate immunity by diminishing IL-1 beta production and thus affecting resistance to R. equi infection.

Orbitofrontal cortex gray matter volumes in bipolar disorder patients: a region-of-interest MRI study

Objectives: Functional and postmortem studies suggest that the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) is involved in the pathophysiology of bipolar disorder (BD). This anatomical magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) study examined whether BD patients have smaller OFC gray matter volumes compared to healthy comparison subjects (HC). Methods: Twenty-eight BD patients were compared to 28 age- and gender-matched HC. Subjects underwent a 1.5T MRI with 3D spoiled gradient recalled acquisition. Total OFC and medial and lateral subdivisions were manually traced by a blinded examiner. Images were segmented and gray matter volumes were calculated using an automated method. Results: Analysis of covariance, with intracranial volume as covariate, showed that BD patients and HC did not differ in gray matter volumes of total OFC or its subdivisions. However, total OFC gray matter volume was significantly smaller in depressed patients (n = 10) compared to euthymic patients (n = 18). Moreover, total OFC gray matter volumes were inversely correlated with depressive symptom intensity, as assessed by the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale. OFC gray matter volumes were not related to lithium treatment, age at disease onset, number of episodes, or family history of mood disorders. Conclusions: Our results suggest that abnormal OFC gray matter volumes are not a pervasive characteristic of BD, but may be associated with specific clinical features of the disorder.