Measuring Avoidable Health Inequality with Realization of Conditional Potential Life Years (RCPLY)

In a series of papers (Tang, Chin and Rao, 2008; and Tang, Petrie and Rao 2006 & 2007), we have tried to improve on a mortality-based health status indicator, namely age-at-death (AAD), and its associated health inequality indicators that measure the distribution of AAD. The main contribution of these papers is to propose a frontier method to separate avoidable and unavoidable mortality risks. This has facilitated the development of a new indicator of health status, namely the Realization of Potential Life Years (RePLY). The RePLY measure is based on the concept of a “frontier country” that, by construction, has the lowest mortality risks for each age-sex group amongst all countries. The mortality rates of the frontier country are used as a proxy for the unavoidable mortality rates, and the residual between the observed mortality rates and the unavoidable mortality rates are considered as avoidable morality rates. In this approach, however, countries at different levels of development are benchmarked against the same frontier country without considering their heterogeneity. The main objective of the current paper is to control for national resources in estimating (conditional) unavoidable and avoidable mortality risks for individual countries. This allows us to construct a new indicator of health status – Realization of Conditional Potential Life Years (RCPLY). The paper presents empirical results from a dataset of life tables for 167 countries from the year 2000, compiled and updated by the World Health Organization. Measures of national average health status and health inequality based on RePLY and RCPLY are presented and compared.

Mortes evitáveis em menores de um ano, Brasil, 1997 a 2006: contribuições para a avaliação de desempenho do Sistema Único de Saúde

Os óbitos de menores de um ano foram classificados em causas evitáveis, mal definidas e não evitáveis empregando a Lista Brasileira de Mortes Evitáveis, entre 1997-2006. Foram calculados tendências dos coeficientes de mortalidade infantil por causas de morte e se usou regressão não linear para avaliação de tendência. As causas evitáveis e as causas mal definidas apresentaram significativa redução (p < 0,001). As causas reduzíveis de mortalidade apresentaram redução de 37%. A mortalidade por causas reduzíveis por adequada atenção ao parto declinou em 27,7%; adequada atenção ao recém-nascido, 42,5%; e por adequada atenção à gestação cresceu 28,3%. Concluiu-se que os serviços de saúde contribuíram para a redução da mortalidade infantil. O declínio das causas mal definidas de morte indica ampliação do acesso aos serviços de saúde. O aumento do acesso e atenção ao parto e aos cuidados com recém-nascido contribuíram para a redução de óbitos infantis. O aumento da mortalidade por adequada atenção à gestação revela a necessidade de aprimoramento da atenção pré-natal.

Late Entry into HIV Care: Estimated Impact on AIDS Mortality Rates in Brazil, 2003-2006

Background: Worldwide, a high proportion of HIV-infected individuals enter into HIV care late. Here, our objective was to estimate the impact that late entry into HIV care has had on AIDS mortality rates in Brazil. Methodology/Principal Findings: We analyzed data from information systems regarding HIV-infected adults who sought treatment at public health care facilities in Brazil from 2003 to 2006. We initially estimated the prevalence of late entry into HIV care, as well as the probability of death in the first 12 months, the percentage of the risk of death attributable to late entry, and the number of avoidable deaths. We subsequently adjusted the annual AIDS mortality rate by excluding such deaths. Of the 115,369 patients evaluated, 50,358 (43.6%) had entered HIV care late, and 18,002 died in the first 12 months, representing a 16.5% probability of death in the first 12 months (95% CI: 16.3-16.7). By comparing patients who entered HIV care late with those who gained timely access, we found that the risk ratio for death was 49.5 (95% CI: 45.1-54.2). The percentage of the risk of death attributable to late entry was 95.5%, translating to 17,189 potentially avoidable deaths. Averting those deaths would have lowered the 2003-2006 AIDS mortality rate by 39.5%. Including asymptomatic patients with CD4(+) T cell counts >200 and <= 350 cells/mm(3) in the group who entered HIV care late increased this proportion by 1.8%. Conclusions/Significance: In Brazil, antiretroviral drugs reduced AIDS mortality by 43%. Timely entry would reduce that rate by a similar proportion, as well as resulting in a 45.2% increase in the effectiveness of the program for HIV care. The World Health Organization recommendation that asymptomatic patients with CD4(+) T cell counts <= 350 cells/mm(3) be treated would not have a significant impact on this scenario.

A Health Economics Model. The cost benefits of the Physical Activity Strategy for Northern Ireland - a summary of key findings

This summary report follows on from the publication of the Northern Ireland physical activity strategy in 1996 and the subsequent publication of the strategy action plan in 1998. Within this strategy action plan a recommendation was made for the health sector, that research should be carried out to evaluate and compare the cost of investing in physical activity programmes against the cost of treating preventable illness. To help in the development of this key area, the Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety's Economics Branch agreed to develop a model that would seek to establish the extent of avoidable deaths from physical inactivity and, as a consequence, the avoidable economic and healthcare costs for Northern Ireland.

A Healthier Future: A Strategic Framework for Respiratory Conditions

In Northern Ireland in 2002-03, there were almost 30,000 admissions to hospital for respiratory conditions utilizing over 180,000 bed days and costing almost å£50m. Social security support for people with long term chest and breathing problems amounts to å£26m annually. This framework sets out how with better prevention and self management a reduction in ill health and a contribute to a reduction in avoidable deaths can be achieved. And with better co-ordinated and integrated services more consistent and effective care for those people unfortunate enough to suffer from serious disease can be provided. This in turn will enable services to better respond to the increasing needs of a more elderly population. The document contains a number of recommendations. These include significant service re-organisation and re-design so that the whole system – the primary, community and hospital sectors, provides for a more responsive and effective service to users and carers. This should result in much more of the overall caseload being proactively managed in community and primary care environments allowing scarce hospital capacity to be devoted to the most critical cases. This includes the development of new ways of caring for at risk patients, more effective rehabilitation in the community, improved education and training of professionals and better communication across the community and hospital sectors.

Trends in motor vehicle crash mortality in Europe, 1980-2007.

Recent trends (1980-2007) in mortality from road traffic crashes in European countries, and, for comparative purposes, in the USA and Japan were reviewed. Data came from the World Health Organisation database. Age-standardised rates, at all ages and at 15-24, 25-64, >=65 years, were computed. Joinpoint regression analyses to evaluate significant changes in trends were performed. In the European Union as a whole rates declined from 20.2 in 1987 to 13.5/100,000 in 2007 in men, and from 6.3 to 3.7/100,000 in women; European Union rates remained lower than USA, but higher than Japanese ones. In 2007, the highest male rates were in Lithuania (36.7/100,000), the Russian Federation (35.2), Ukraine (29.8), and Latvia (28.5), and the lowest ones in the Netherlands (6.2) and Sweden (6.9); the highest female rates were in the Russian Federation (11.3), Lithuania (9.7), Belarus, Latvia, and Ukraine (around 8), and the lowest ones in Switzerland (1.7), the UK, and Nordic countries (around 2). Mortality from motor vehicle crashes declined in northern and western European countries and - though to a lesser extent - in southern European countries, too. Mortality trends were also favourable in the Czech Republic and Poland since the mid 1990's, whereas they were still upwards in Romania and the Russian Federation. No trend was observed in Hungary and Ukraine. Trends were consistent in various age groups considered. Thus, additional urgent and integrated intervention is required to prevent avoidable deaths from motor vehicle crashes, particularly in selected central and eastern European countries.

Perinatal mortality and quality of care at the National Institute of Perinatology: A 3-year analysis

Quality of medical care has been indirectly assessed through the collection of negative outcomes. A preventable death is one that could have been avoided if optimum care had been offered. The general objective of the present project was to analyze the perinatal mortality at the National Institute of Perinatology (located in Mexico City) by social, biological and some available components of quality of care such as avoidability, provider responsibility, and structure and process deficiencies in the delivery of medical care. A Perinatal Mortality Committee data base was utilized. The study population consisted of all singleton perinatal deaths occurring between January 1, 1988 and June 30, 1991 (n = 522). A proportionate study was designed.^ The population studied mostly corresponded to married young adult mothers, who were residents of urban areas, with an educational level of junior high school or more, two to three pregnancies, and intermediate prenatal care. The mean gestational age at birth was 33.4 $\pm$ 3.9 completed weeks and the mean birthweight at birth was 1,791.9 $\pm$ 853.1 grams.^ Thirty-five percent of perinatal deaths were categorized as avoidable. Postnatal infection and premature rupture of membranes were the most frequent primary causes of avoidable perinatal death. The avoidable perinatal mortality rate was 8.7 per 1000 and significantly declined during the study period (p $<$.05). Preventable perinatal mortality aggregated data suggested that at least part of the mortality decline for amenable conditions was due to better medical care.^ Structure deficiencies were present in 35% of avoidable deaths and process deficiencies were present in 79%. Structure deficiencies remained constant over time. Process deficiencies consisted of diagnosis failures (45.8%) and treatment failures (87.3%), they also remained constant through the years. Party responsibility was as follows: Obstetric (35.4%), pediatric (41.4%), institutional (26.5%), and patient (6.6%). Obstetric responsibility significantly increased during the study period (p $<$.05). Pediatric responsibility declined only for newborns less than 1500 g (p $<$.05). Institutional responsibility remained constant.^ Process deficiencies increased the risk for an avoidable death eightfold (confidence interval 1.7-41.4, p $<$.01) and provider responsibility ninety-fivefold (confidence interval 14.8-612.1, p $<$.001), after adjustment for several confounding variables. Perinatal mortality due to prematurity, barotrauma and nosocomial infection, was highly preventable, but not that due to transpartum asphyxia. Once specific deficiencies in the quality of care have been identified, quality assurance actions should begin. ^

Mortalidad evitable y políticas en salud: Colombia, 1985-2002

Introducción: La confianza en la capacidad de evitar algunas muertes o diferir su aparición es el fundamento de toda política de salud, uno de cuyos principales resultados debe ser reducir las muertes evitables, y controlar las condiciones que aumentan el riesgo de morir. Objetivos: Establecer variaciones en la tendencia de la mortalidad evitable (ME) registrada en Colombia entre 1985 y 2002, como indicadoras del impacto efectivo que las reformas en la política sanitaria pudieran haber tenido sobre sus determinantes. Métodos: Estudio de la ME con base en los registros oficiales de defunción y en las proyecciones censales de Colombia entre 1985-2002. Para determinar la evitabilidad, se aplicó un inventario de causas de ME (ICME) ajustado a las condiciones epidemiológicas del país durante el período que se analiza. Resultados: De las muertes registradas, 75.3% se clasificaron como evitables. Se identificaron siete patrones de tendencia que reflejan, de manera particular, los efectos de las políticas públicas sobre los determinantes de la mortalidad. Conclusiones: En general, la ME viene disminuyendo en Colombia desde 1985 en la población general y entre los hombres, sin variaciones significativas durante el período. Las variaciones en la tendencia de las tasas ajustadas de varios grupos de causas hacen pensar en un deterioro en el control de sus determinantes, especialmente desde 1990. Los cambios aplicados en las políticas públicas durante los últimos años no se reflejaron en un mejor control de las muertes evitables, aunque el gasto en salud aumentó de modo muy notable en el país.

Diseño y análisis comparativo de un inventario de indicadores de mortalidad evitable adaptado a las condiciones sanitarias de Colombia

Objetivos. Elaborar un inventario de indicadores de mortalidad evitable (INIME) que permita analizar las fallas en el control de los riesgos de mortalidad predominantes en Colombia y comparar los resultados de su aplicación con los obtenidos mediante dos enfoques ampliamente utilizados. Métodos. Se revisaron los registros oficiales de mortalidad de Colombia de 1985 a 2001; las causas básicas de muerte se clasificaron según la CIE-9. Se seleccionaron los indicadores de mortalidad evitable (ME) mediante un algoritmo que combinó las listas de Holland y de Taucher, la definición de Rutstein y colaboradores y el principio de Uemura. Se compararon las proporciones de muertes evitables resultantes de aplicar el INIME y las dos listas de ME a una base de datos con los registros oficiales de defunciones de Colombia de 1993 a 1996. Resultados. De las 680 617 defunciones registradas en el período de estudio, se clasificaron como evitables 18,2% según la lista de Holland y 51,3% según la lista de Taucher. La ME según el INIME ascendió a 76,7%. Este patrón se mantuvo relativamente estable entre 1993 y 1996. Las diferencias observadas en la proporción de muertes evitables según el INIME y las dos listas de ME se relacionaron con el perfil epidemiológico local y el enfoque conceptual de cada lista. Conclusiones. Las diferencias entre el INIME y las listas de ME de Holland y de Taucher muestran las consecuencias de usar una u otra clasificación en el contexto colombiano. El INIME puede constituir un recurso valioso para fundamentar y evaluar políticas sanitarias, pero debe ajustarse a la situación específica en que se aplique.

Time trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring European countries 1996-2010.

QUESTION UNDER STUDY What are the trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring countries? METHODS Mortality data and population estimates 1996-2010 were obtained from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office for Switzerland and the World Health Organization Mortality Database (http://www.who.int/healthinfo/mortality_data/en/) for Austria, Germany, France and Italy. Age standardised mortality rates (ASMRs, European standard) per 100 000 person-years were calculated for the population <75 years old by sex for the following groups of cancer deaths: (1) avoidable through primary prevention; (2) avoidable through early detection and treatment; (3) avoidable through improved treatment and medical care; and (4) remaining cancer deaths. To assess time trends in ASMRs, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated. RESULTS In Switzerland and neighbouring countries cancer mortality in persons <75 years old continuously decreased 1996-2010. Avoidable cancer mortality decreased in all groups of avoidable cancer deaths in both sexes, with one exception. ASMRs for causes avoidable through primary prevention increased in females in all countries (in Switzerland from 16.2 to 20.3 per 100 000 person years, EAPC 2.0 [95% CI 1.4 to 2.6]). Compared with its neighbouring countries, Switzerland showed the lowest rates for all groups of avoidable cancer mortality in males 2008-2010. CONCLUSION Overall avoidable cancer mortality decreased, indicating achievements in cancer care and related health policies. However, increasing trends in avoidable cancer mortality through primary prevention for females suggest there is a need in Switzerland and its European neighbouring countries to improve primary prevention.

Evolution Of The Deaths Registry System In Brazil: Associations With Changes In The Mortality Profile, Under-registration Of Death Counts, And Ill-defined Causes Of Death.

This paper examines the spatial pattern of ill-defined causes of death across Brazilian regions, and its relationship with the evolution of completeness of the deaths registry and changes in the mortality age profile. We make use of the Brazilian Health Informatics Department mortality database and population censuses from 1980 to 2010. We applied demographic methods to evaluate the quality of mortality data for 137 small areas and correct for under-registration of death counts when necessary. The second part of the analysis uses linear regression models to investigate the relationship between, on the one hand, changes in death counts coverage and age profile of mortality, and on the other, changes in the reporting of ill-defined causes of death. The completeness of death counts coverage increases from about 80% in 1980-1991 to over 95% in 2000-2010 at the same time the percentage of ill-defined causes of deaths reduced about 53% in the country. The analysis suggests that the government's efforts to improve data quality are proving successful, and they will allow for a better understanding of the dynamics of health and the mortality transition.

Vidas arriscadas: uma reflexão sobre a relação entre o número de gestações e mortalidade materna

Este estudo teve por objetivo identificar o risco e os fatores associados à mortalidade materna de multigestas (cinco ou mais gestações). Descreve a tendência da Taxa de Fecundidade Total (TFT) e da Razão de Mortalidade Materna (RMM) de 1998 a 2004 no Paraná. Apresenta uma análise dos 822 óbitos maternos deste período, o cálculo da Razão de Mortalidade Materna Específica, o Risco Relativo, a freqüência e o Odds Ratio para algumas variáveis segundo número de gestações. Analisa também as causas e a evitabilidade dos óbitos maternos. Os resultados apontaram TFT baixa (1,8 filhos por mulher) e a RMM elevada (69,7/100.000 nascidos vivos) no Paraná em 2004. Um quarto dos 822 óbitos maternos (206) era de multigestas (cinco ou mais gestações), o risco relativo de morte materna foi seis vezes superior do que para as mulheres com até duas gestações, e os perfis sociodemográfico e o reprodutivo foram mais desfavoráveis para aquele grupo de mulheres. A baixa escolaridade, a idade igual ou acima de 30 anos e o pré-natal com menos de quatro consultas apresentaram associação com o maior número de gestações. A proporção de mortes por causas obstétricas indiretas, hemorragias e aborto, foi maior entre as multigestas, e cerca de 90% dos óbitos deste grupo foi considerado evitável. Concluiu-se que o monitoramento das multigestas com idade avançada e em desvantagem social, bem como ações efetivas de planejamento familiar, e serviços obstétricos qualificados para gestação de alto risco são medidas que podem contribuir para a redução da mortalidade materna