A statistical model of climates in the southwestern United States

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We describe an empirical-statistical model of climates of the southwestern United States. Boundary conditions include sea surface temperatures, atmospheric transmissivity, and topography. Independent variables are derived from the boundary conditions along 1000-km paths of atmospheric circulation. ... Predictor equations are derived over a larger region than the application area to allow for the increased range of paleoclimate. This larger region is delimited by the autocorrelation properties of climatic data.

Assessing the diurnal evolution of surface radiation balance over the western region of Tropical Atlantic Ocean using in situ measurements carried out during the FluTuA balance Project

In this work, the diurnal evolution of the radiation balance components over the tropical Atlantic Ocean is described and analysed. The analysis is based on measurements carried Out on board a Brazilian Navy ship during the observational campaign of the FluTuA Project (`Fluxos Turbulentos sobre o Atlantico`), from 15 to 23 May 2002. The observations indicated that the albedo responds its expected to atmospheric attenuation effects with a diurnal evolution similar to the Fresnel albedo. In general, the observed longwave radiation values agreed better with the estimated values obtained without longwave reflection. In agreement with the literature, the average surface emissivity was around 0.97. The net radiation, estimated from published equations for albedo, atmospheric transmissivity and surface emissivity, agreed with the observations, indicating that these parameters are representative of the radiometric properties of the air-sea interface in the region between Natal (6 degrees S, 35.2 degrees W) and the Sao Pedro and Sao Paulo Archipelago (1 degrees N, 29.3 degrees W). Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Validation of the Deardorff model for estimating energy balance components for a sugarcane crop

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Annual evolution of global, direct and diffuse radiation and fractions in tilted surfaces

Avaliou-se a evolução anual das componentes global, direta e difusa da radiação solar incidente em superfícies inclinadas a 12,85; 22,85 e 32,85º, com face voltada ao Norte, em Botucatu-SP. Foram obtidas frações radiométricas para cada componente da radiação nas superfícies supracitadas, através de razões com a radiação global e a do topo da atmosfera. A sazonalidade foi avaliada através das médias mensais dos valores diários. As medidas ocorreram entre 04/1998 e 07/2001, em 22,85º; 08/2001 e 02/2003, em 12,85º; e de 03/2003 a 12/2007, em 32,85º, com medidas concomitantes no plano horizontal (referência). Os níveis das radiações global e direta nos planos inclinados foram inferiores no período de verão e superiores entre os equinócios, quando comparadas ao plano horizontal. A radiação difusa nas superfícies inclinadas foi inferior na maioria dos meses, com perdas de até 65%. Ocorreu uma tendência de aumento das diferenças entre as superfícies horizontal e inclinada com o incremento do ângulo em todas as componentes e frações da radiação incidente. A evolução anual das precipitações pluviométricas e da razão de nebulosidade afetou diretamente a transmissividade atmosférica das componentes direta e difusa na região.

Estimates of hourly diffuse radiation on tilted surfaces in southeast of brazil

The global radiation incident on a tilted surfaces consists of components direct, diffuse and reflected from the ground. On a hourly database, the direct radiation can be calculated by geometric projections (ratio of the incidence angle to the solar zenith angle). The reflected radiation has a small effect on calculations and may be calculated with an isotropic model. Both components presents dependence of measures in incidence or horizontal surface. The great difficulty is to evaluate the diffuse radiation by variations of circumsolar, brightness horizontal, isotropic and anisotropic subcomponents. This study evaluated twenty models to estimate hourly diffuse radiation incident on tilted surfaces at 12.85° (latitude - 10°), 22.85° (latitude) and 32.85° (latitude + 10°) facing to North, under different cloudiness sky conditions, in Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil (22°53' S, 48°26' W and 786 m above the mean sea level). In contrast, models for estimating the diffuse component show major differences, which justify the validation for local calibrations. There is a decrease of the maximum total radiation scattered with increasing atmospheric transmissivity and inclination angle. The best results are obtained by anisotropic models: Ma and Iqbal, Hay, Reindl et al. and Willmott; isotropic: Badescu and Koronakis, and the Circumsolar model. The increase of the inclination angle allows for a reduction in the performance of statistical parametric models for estimating the hourly diffuse radiation.

Estimativas da radiação global incidente em superfícies inclinadas com base na razáo de insolação

Estimating equations of global radiation based on the sunshine duration were proposed for horizontal surface and with inclination of 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85° facing the North in Botucatu, SP, Brazil, in monthly, seasonal and annual groupings of data. Simple linear correlations were applied (for definition of the linear and angular coefficients of Angstrom-Prescott model), in a database measured in all three inclinations in different periods (22.85°: 04/1998 to 07/2001; 12.85°: 08/2011 to 02/2003; and 32.85°: 03/2003 to 12/2007) concomitant with horizontal measures and sunshine duration. The statistical performance of the model was analysed by the means absolute error (MBE), the square root of the mean square error (RMSE) and the index adjustment (d). The minimum global radiation transmissivity varied from 14.35% in August (12.85°) to 27.86% in December (32.85°) and the maximum transmissivity ranged between 62.10% and 78.90%, for June (32.85°) and December (12.85°). Increasing the angle of inclination surface increased the scattering and decreased the index of adjustment and performance. The worst results were found for application of the seasonal and annual models in the months of autumn and winter for 32.85° (RMSE below 42.93% and adjustment superior to 0.4693).

Estimativas das radiações direta e difusa em superfícies inclinadas com base na razáo de insolação

Statistical equations were obtained and evaluated with annual, seasonal and monthly data groupings for estimates of direct and diffuse components of solar radiation based on the sunshine duration (ratio of sunshine and photoperiod) incident on horizontal and inclined surfaces to 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85° with facing to North, in Botucatu, SP. The ratios between the two components and radiation at the top of the atmosphere were used, in a database whose inclinations were measured in three different periods (22.85°: 04/1998 to 07/2001; 12.85°: 08/2011 to 02/2003; and 32.85°: 03/2003 to 12/2007) and concomitant with horizontal measures and sunshine duration. The correlations showed a linear and second degree polynomial behavior for the direct and diffuse radiation, with higher coefficients of determination in periods of low variation in the coverage of the sky (cloudiness). The highest values of the direct and diffuse radiation were found in winter and summer, respectively for all surfaces evaluated. The increase in the inclination angle decreased the performance of equations in all groups of data with increase in scattering and decrease in index of the adjustment, however, the monthly equations allowed better performance for the two components.

Estimativa da radiação solar ultravioleta em Botucatu/SP Brasil utilizando técnicas de aprendizado de máquina

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Estimation of hourly, daily and monthly mean diffuse radiation based on MEO shadowring correction

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Diurnal evolution of the hourly diffuse solar radiation incident on tilted surfaces in Southeast of Brazil

Evaluation has been made on the monthly and annual average diurnal evolution of the hourly diffuse radiation as well as its radiometric fractions on surfaces inclined at 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85° to face North, in climate conditions of Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil (22.85° S and 48.43° W). Measurements were made between 04/1998 to 08/2001 for 22.85°; 09/2001 to 02/2003 for 12.85° and 01/2004 to 12/2007 for 32.85°, with concomitant measures in the horizontal. For all surfaces the diffuse radiation was obtained from different method. Assessment has been performed as well on the radiometric fractions obtained from the ratio of diffuse radiation and global radiation (KDH and KDβ) and between radiation and diffuse radiation at the top of the atmosphere (KʹDH and KʹDβ) for the horizontal and tilted surfaces in hourly partition. The diffuse radiation levels were dependent on variations in precipitation and cloudiness. There was an increase in the differences between the diffuse radiation and the radiometric fractions with the increment of the angle, and in horizontally, which affected higher levels of diffuse radiation in spring and summer. The values of KDH and KDβ present in an inverse behavior were compared to diffuse radiation and theydecreased in the southern passage due to the increase of the direct component in the total of incident radiation.

Estimativas da radiação difusa horária incidente em superfícies inclinadas com base na transmissividade atmosférica

Evaluated statistical equations estimates (based on radiometric fractions) of the hourly diffuse radiation incident on inclined surfaces for the North to 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85°, the climate and geographical conditions of Botucatu, SP. The database was generated from April/1998 to December/2007, with measures in the three tilted surfaces in different periods, but concomitant to the horizontal plane. In the validation of the equations were used indicative statistics MBE (mean absolute error), RMSE (square root mean square error) and index adjustment (d) for three inclinations and conditions of sky coverage. The increased angle of inclination of the surface led to increased scattering of hourly values for the coefficient of atmospheric transmissivity of diffuse radiation for inclined and horizontal surfaces. Estimates of diffuse radiation on the basis of hourly tilted horizontal global radiation occur for quadratic polynomial models, which adjust K'Dβ maximum values of between 0.14 and 0.30 for winter and summer when KTH varies between 0.40 and 0.66, indicating that energy, the highest values of diffuse radiation occur in partly cloudy sky conditions and / or partially open. The increase in atmospheric transmissivity decreases the performance of annual and monthly equations at all inclinations.

Modelagem da irradiação direta na incidência normal em Botucatu: aprendizado de máquina, estatístico e linke

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estimativa da irradiação solar global pelo método de Angstrom-Prescott e técnicas de aprendizado de máquinas

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Characterisation of soluble components and PAH in PM10 atmospheric particulate matter in Brisbane

Fours sets of PM10 samples were collected in three sites in SEQ from December 2002 to August 2004. Three of these sets of samples were collected by QLD EPA as a part of their regular air monitoring program at Woolloongabba, Rocklea and Eagle Farm. Half of the samples were used in this study for the analysis of water-soluble ions, which are Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, NH4 +, Cl-, NO3 -, SO4 2-, F-, Br-, NO2 -, PO4 -3 and the other half was retained by QLD EPA. The fourth set of samples was collected at Rocklea, specifically for this study. A quarter of the samples obtained from this set of samples were used to analyse water-soluble ions; a quarter of the sample was used to analyse Pb, Cu, Al, Fe, Mn and Zn; and the rests were used to analyse US EPA 16 priority PAHs. The water-soluble ions were extracted ultrasonically with water and the major watersoluble anions as well as NH4 + were analysed using IC. Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+ Pb, Cu, Al, Fe, Mn and Zn were analysed using ICP-AES while PAHs were extracted by acetonitrile and analysed using HPLC. Of the analysed water-soluble ions, Cl-, NO3 -, SO4 2-, Na+, K+, Mg2+ and Ca2+ were high in concentration and determined in all the samples. F-, Br-, NO2 -, PO4 -3 and NH4 + ions were lower in concentration and determined only in some samples. Na+ and Cl- were high in all samples indicating the importance of a marine source. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to examine the temporal variations of the water-soluble ions at the three sites. The results indicated that there was no major difference between the three sites. However, comparing the average concentrations of ions and Cl-/Na+ it was concluded that Woolloongabba had more marine influence than the other sites. Al, Fe and Zn were detected in all samples. Al and Fe were high in all samples indicating the significance of a source of crustal matter. Cu, Mn and Pb were in low concentrations and were determined only in some samples. The lower Pb concentrations observed in the study than in previous studies indicate that the phasing-out of leaded petrol had an appreciable impact on Pb levels in SEQ. This study reports for the first time, simultaneous data on the water-soluble, metal ion and PAH levels of PM10 aerosols in Brisbane, and provides information on the most likely sources of these chemical species. Such information can be used alongside those that already exist to formulate PM10 pollution reduction strategies for SEQ in order to protect the community from the adverse effects of PM pollution.