State dependent asymmetric loss and the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth

It has been well documented that the consensus forecast from surveys of professional forecasters shows a bias that varies over time. In this paper, we examine whether this bias may be due to forecasters having an asymmetric loss function. In contrast to previous research, we account for the time variation in the bias by making the loss function depend on the state of the economy. The asymmetry parameter in the loss function is specified to depend on set state variables which may cause forecaster to intentionally bias their forecasts. We consider both the Lin–Ex and asymmetric power loss functions. For the commonly used Lin–Ex and Lin–Lin loss functions, we show the model can be easily estimated by least squares. We apply our methodology to the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We find that forecast uncertainty has an asymmetric effect on the asymmetry parameter in the loss function dependent upon whether the economy is in expansion or contraction. When the economy is in expansion, forecaster uncertainty is related to an overprediction in the median forecast of real GDP growth. In contrast, when the economy is in contraction, forecaster uncertainty is related to an underprediction in the median forecast of real GDP growth. Our results are robust to the particular loss function that is employed in the analysis.

US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968-2010

Recent literature has suggested that macroeconomic forecasters may have asymmetric loss functions, and that there may be heterogeneity across forecasters in the degree to which they weigh under- and over-predictions. Using an individual-level analysis that exploits the Survey of Professional Forecasters respondents’ histogram forecasts, we find little evidence of asymmetric loss for the inflation forecasters

Evaluating and classifying contaminated areas based on loss functions using annealing simulations

This paper presents a methodology based on geostatistical theory for quantifying the risks associated with heavy-metal contamination in the harbor area of Santana, Amapa State, Northern Brazil. In this area there were activities related to the commercialization of manganese ore from Serra do Navio. Manganese and arsenic concentrations at unsampled sites were estimated by postprocessing results from stochastic annealing simulations; the simulations were used to test different criteria for optimization, including average, median, and quantiles. For classifying areas as contaminated or uncontaminated, estimated quantiles based on functions of asymmetric loss showed better results than did estimates based on symmetric loss, such as the average or the median. The use of specific loss functions in the decision-making process can reduce the costs of remediation and health maintenance. The highest global health costs were observed for manganese. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Régulation de l’identité des membres postérieurs par le facteur de transcription à boîte T Tbx4

Bien que partageant une homologie structurelle évidente, les membres antérieurs (MA) sont toujours différents des membres postérieurs (MP). Ceci suggère l’existence d’un programme générique de formation d’un membre, un bauplan, qui doit être modulé de façon spécifique pour engendrer cette différence antéro-postérieure de l’identité. Nous avons donc voulu identifier les mécanismes déployés durant l’évolution pour permettre la mise en place de l’identité des membres. Le laboratoire avait précédemment caractérisé, chez les souris où le gène Pitx1 est inactivé, une transformation partielle des MP en MA couplée à une perte de croissance. Nous avons donc cherché à comprendre les mécanismes en aval de Pitx1 dans la détermination de l’identité postérieure. Notre démarche nous a permis d’identifier les gènes affectés par la perte de Pitx1 dans les MP, où nous avons confirmé une dérégulation de l’expression de Tbx4. Tbx4 et Tbx5 sont des candidats évidents pour déterminer l’identité, leur expression étant restreinte aux MP et MA, respectivement, mais leur implication dans ce processus était sujette à controverse. Nous avons donc évalué l’apport de Tbx4 en aval de Pitx1 dans les processus d’identité en restaurant son expression dans les MP des souris Pitx1-/-. Ce faisant, nous avons pu montrer que Tbx4 est capable de pallier la perte de Pitx1 dans le MP, en rétablissant à la fois les caractères d’identité postérieure et la croissance. En parallèle, nous avons montré que Tbx5 était capable de rétablir la croissance mais non l’identité des MP Pitx1-/-, démontrant ainsi de façon définitive une propriété propre à Tbx4 dans la détermination de l’identité des membres postérieure. La caractérisation de l’activité transcriptionnelle de Tbx4 et Tbx5 nous a permis de mettre en évidence un domaine activateur conservé mais aussi un domaine spécifique à Tbx4, répresseur de la transcription. Par ailleurs, une mutation faux-sens de TBX4 dans les patients atteints du syndrome coxo-podo-patellaire, TBX4Q531R, inactive le domaine répresseur, empêchant la compensation de l’identité mais non de la croissance des MP dépourvus de Pitx1, démontrant l’importance de cette fonction dans l’identité postérieure. La caractérisation de l’activité répressive de Tbx4, qui se manifeste seulement dans les membres postérieurs démontre l’importance de cette fonction dans l’identité postérieure. Nous avons aussi été en mesure d’identifier un corépresseur qui est suffisant pour supporter cette activité de Tbx4. Enfin, nous avons pu aussi démontrer l’activité transcriptionnelle d’un représentant du gène ancestral, présent chez Amphioxus, qui se comporte strictement comme un activateur et semble dépourvu du domaine répresseur. En somme, nous avons précisé le rôle de Tbx4 et Tbx5, ainsi que leur mécanisme, dans la détermination de l’identité des membres. Globalement, nos travaux permettent d’élaborer une théorie où une divergence d’activité transcriptionnelle de Tbx4 et Tbx5 est responsable de l’identité des membres et même entrevoir que cette divergence d’activité soit à la base de son apparition durant l’évolution.

Utilização da geoestatística na quantificação do risco de contaminação por metais pesados, na área portuária de Santana-Amapá

Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE

Space–time zero-inflated count models of Harbor seals

Environmental data are spatial, temporal, and often come with many zeros. In this paper, we included space–time random effects in zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and ‘hurdle’ models to investigate haulout patterns of harbor seals on glacial ice. The data consisted of counts, for 18 dates on a lattice grid of samples, of harbor seals hauled out on glacial ice in Disenchantment Bay, near Yakutat, Alaska. A hurdle model is similar to a ZIP model except it does not mix zeros from the binary and count processes. Both models can be used for zero-inflated data, and we compared space–time ZIP and hurdle models in a Bayesian hierarchical model. Space–time ZIP and hurdle models were constructed by using spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) models and temporal first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models as random effects in ZIP and hurdle regression models. We created maps of smoothed predictions for harbor seal counts based on ice density, other covariates, and spatio-temporal random effects. For both models predictions around the edges appeared to be positively biased. The linex loss function is an asymmetric loss function that penalizes overprediction more than underprediction, and we used it to correct for prediction bias to get the best map for space–time ZIP and hurdle models.

Bayesian and Frequentist Two-Sample Predictions of the Inverse Weibull Model Based on Generalized Order Statistics

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62E16,62F15, 62H12, 62M20.

Asymmetric Effects of Loss and Gain of a Floral Trait on Pollinator Preference

Shifts in pollination syndromes involve coordinated changes in multiple floral traits. This raises the question of how plants can cope with rapid changes in pollinator availability by the slow process of accumulation of mutations in multiple genes. Here we study the transition from bee to hawkmoth pollination in the genus Petunia. Interspecific crosses followed by single locus introgressions were used to recreate putative intermediate evolutionary stages in the evolution of moth pollination. The effect of the loss/gain of petal color was asymmetric: it had no influence on the established pollinator but enhanced visitation by the new pollinator. Therefore, shifts in pollination syndromes may proceed through intermediate stages of reduced specialization and consequently enhanced reproductive assurance. The loss of petal color in moth-pollinated Petunia involves null mutations in a single regulatory gene, An2. Such simple genetic changes may be sufficiently rapid and frequent to ensure survival during pollinator failure.

Anthropogenic landscape change promotes asymmetric dispersal and limits regional patch occupancy in a spatially structured bird population

1. Local extinctions in habitat patches and asymmetric dispersal between patches are key processes structuring animal populations in heterogeneous environments. Effective landscape conservation requires an understanding of how habitat loss and fragmentation influence demographic processes within populations and movement between populations. 2. We used patch occupancy surveys and molecular data for a rainforest bird, the logrunner (Orthonyx temminckii), to determine (i) the effects of landscape change and patch structure on local extinction; (ii) the asymmetry of emigration and immigration rates; (iii) the relative influence of local and between-population landscapes on asymmetric emigration and immigration; and (iv) the relative contributions of habitat loss and habitat fragmentation to asymmetric emigration and immigration. 3. Whether or not a patch was occupied by logrunners was primarily determined by the isolation of that patch. After controlling for patch isolation, patch occupancy declined in landscapes experiencing high levels of rainforest loss over the last 100 years. Habitat loss and fragmentation over the last century was more important than the current pattern of patch isolation alone, which suggested that immigration from neighbouring patches was unable to prevent local extinction in highly modified landscapes. 4. We discovered that dispersal between logrunner populations is highly asymmetric. Emigration rates were 39% lower when local landscapes were fragmented, but emigration was not limited by the structure of the between-population landscapes. In contrast, immigration was 37% greater when local landscapes were fragmented and was lower when the between-population landscapes were fragmented. Rainforest fragmentation influenced asymmetric dispersal to a greater extent than did rainforest loss, and a 60% reduction in mean patch area was capable of switching a population from being a net exporter to a net importer of dispersing logrunners. 5. The synergistic effects of landscape change on species occurrence and asymmetric dispersal have important implications for conservation. Conservation measures that maintain large patch sizes in the landscape may promote asymmetric dispersal from intact to fragmented landscapes and allow rainforest bird populations to persist in fragmented and degraded landscapes. These sink populations could form the kernel of source populations given sufficient habitat restoration. However, the success of this rescue effect will depend on the quality of the between-population landscapes.

Dynamics of gray matter loss in Alzheimer's disease

We detected and mapped a dynamically spreading wave of gray matter loss in the brains of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD). The loss pattern was visualized in four dimensions as it spread over time from temporal and limbic cortices into frontal and occipital brain regions, sparing sensorimotor cortices. The shifting deficits were asymmetric (left hemisphere > right hemisphere) and correlated with progressively declining cognitive status (p < 0.0006). Novel brain mapping methods allowed us to visualize dynamic patterns of atrophy in 52 high-resolution magnetic resonance image scans of 12 patients with AD (age 68.4 ± 1.9 years) and 14 elderly matched controls (age 71.4 ± 0.9 years) scanned longitudinally (two scans; interscan interval 2.1 ± 0.4 years). A cortical pattern matching technique encoded changes in brain shape and tissue distribution across subjects and time. Cortical atrophy occurred in a well defined sequence as the disease progressed, mirroring the sequence of neurofibrillary tangle accumulation observed in cross sections at autopsy. Advancing deficits were visualized as dynamic maps that change over time. Frontal regions, spared early in the disease, showed pervasive deficits later (< 15% loss). The maps distinguished different phases of AD and differentiated AD from normal aging. Local gray matter loss rates (5.3 ± 2.3% per year in AD v 0.9 ± 0.9% per year in controls) were faster in the left hemisphere (p < 0.029) than the right. Transient barriers to disease progression appeared at limbic/frontal boundaries. This degenerative sequence, observed in vivo as it developed, provides the first quantitative, dynamic visualization of cortical atrophic rates in normal elderly populations and in those with dementia.

The design and synthesis of a true, heterogeneous, asymmetric catalyst

This work describes the design and synthesis of a true, heterogeneous, asymmetric catalyst. The catalyst consists of a thin film that resides on a high-surface- area hydrophilic solid and is composed of a chiral, hydrophilic organometallic complex dissolved in ethylene glycol. Reactions of prochiral organic reactants take place predominantly at the ethylene glycol-bulk organic interface.

The synthesis of this new heterogeneous catalyst is accomplished in a series of designed steps. A novel, water-soluble, tetrasulfonated 2,2'-bis (diphenylphosphino)-1,1'-binaphthyl (BINAP-4S0_3Na) is synthesized by direct sulfonation of 2,2'-bis(diphenylphosphino)-1,1'-binaphthyl (BINAP). The rhodium (I) complex of BINAP-4SO_3Na is prepared and is shown to be the first homogeneous catalyst to perform asymmetric reductions of prochiral 2-acetamidoacrylic acids in neat water with enantioselectivities as high as those obtained in non-aqueous solvents. The ruthenium (II) complex, [Ru(BINAP-4SO_3Na)(benzene)Cl]Cl is also synthesized and exhibits a broader substrate specificity as well as higher enantioselectivities for the homogeneous asymmetric reduction of prochiral 2-acylamino acid precursors in water. Aquation of the ruthenium-chloro bond in water is found to be detrimental to the enantioselectivity with some substrates. Replacement of water by ethylene glycol results in the same high e.e's as those found in neat methanol. The ruthenium complex is impregnated onto a controlled pore-size glass CPG-240 by the incipient wetness technique. Anhydrous ethylene glycol is used as the immobilizing agent in this heterogeneous catalyst, and a non-polar 1:1 mixture of chloroform and cyclohexane is employed as the organic phase.

Asymmetric reduction of 2-(6'-methoxy-2'-naphthyl)acrylic acid to the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agent, naproxen, is accomplished with this heterogeneous catalyst at a third of the rate observed in homogeneous solution with an e.e. of 96% at a reaction temperature of 3°C and 1,400 psig of hydrogen. No leaching of the ruthenium complex into the bulk organic phase is found at a detection limit of 32 ppb. Recycling of the catalyst is possible without any loss in enantioselectivity. Long-term stability of this new heterogeneous catalyst is proven by a self-assembly test. That is, under the reaction conditions, the individual components of the present catalytic system self-assemble into the supported-catalyst configuration.

The strategies outlined here for the design and synthesis of this new heterogeneous catalyst are general, and can hopefully be applied to the development of other heterogeneous, asymmetric catalysts.

Asymmetric quantizers are better at low SNR

We study the behavior of channel capacity when a one-bit quantizer is employed at the output of the discrete-time average-power-limited Gaussian channel. We focus on the low signal-to-noise ratio regime, where communication at very low spectral efficiencies takes place, as in Spread-Spectrum and Ultra-Wideband communications. It is well known that, in this regime, a symmetric one-bit quantizer reduces capacity by 2/π, which translates to a power loss of approximately two decibels. Here we show that if an asymmetric one-bit quantizer is employed, and if asymmetric signal constellations are used, then these two decibels can be recovered in full. © 2011 IEEE.

Highly efficient and recoverable dendritic organocatalyst from click chemistry for the asymmetric michael addition of ketones to nitroolefins without the use of organic solvent

A series Of pyrrolidine-triazole based dendritic catalysts have been synthesized and applied directly in the asymmetric Michael addition of ketones to nitroolefins without the use of an organic solvent. Good yields (up to 99%), and high diastereoselectivities (up to syn/anti = 45:1) and enantioselectivities (up to 95% ee) have been obtained. Furthermore. the third generation catalyst can be reused at least five times without significant loss of catalytic activity. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic characterization of asymmetric reciprocal hybridization between the flatfishes Paralichthys olivaceus and Paralichthys dentatus

Interspecific reciprocal crosses between the two flatfishes Paralichthys olivaceus and P. dentatus yielded hybrids with different viabilities. Specifically, the hybrids of P. olivaceus female and P. dentatus male (HI) were found to be viable, while the reciprocal hybrids from P. dentatus female and P. olivaceus male (HII) were completely inviable. All the HII individuals showed morphological deformities and died before first feeding. The chromosome analysis showed that HI individuals had the same chromosome number as parents. However, two chromosomes were missing in HII offspring indicating that the latter were aneuploids. Genomic inheritance from the parents to F-1 progeny was also examined by amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) analyses, and the results showed differences between reciprocal hybrids. Almost all AFLP bands (97.71%) observed in parents were passed on to HI individuals. In contrast, only 86.64% of the AFLP bands from parents were scored in HII individuals. Frequency of lost parental bands was thus significantly higher in HII than that in HI and intraspecific crosses, which was probably associated with chromosomal elimination. In addition, higher segregation distortions were found in hybrids than in controls, although these differences were not significant. The present study indicates that chromosomal elimination and loss of AFLP loci occurred in inviable HII individuals, while such genomic changes were not found in viable HI individuals. Possible implications of such difference on genomic changes for asymmetric viability in reciprocal hybrids are discussed.