Impacts of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on annual runoff in the Chaohe River Basin during 1961-2005

National Key Technology RD Program [2006BAD03A02]

A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and development conditions. These include the Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande (Brazil), Xiangu (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09) is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs typically simulate water resources impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM, and the CHMs include river routing. Simulations of average annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961-1990) and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global mean temperature from the HadCM3 climate model and (2)a prescribed increase in global-mean temperature of 2oC for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model and structural uncertainty. We find that differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low flow. However, they are relatively small in comparison to the range of projections across the seven GCMs. Hence, for the six catchments and seven GCMs we considered, climate model structural uncertainty is greater than the uncertainty associated with the type of hydrological model applied. Moreover, shifts in the seasonal cycle of runoff with climate change are presented similarly by both hydrological models, although for some catchments the monthly timing of high and low flows differs.This implies that for studies that seek to quantify and assess the role of climate model uncertainty on catchment-scale runoff, it may be equally as feasible to apply a GHM as it is to apply a CHM, especially when climate modelling uncertainty across the range of available GCMs is as large as it currently is. Whilst the GHM is able to represent the broad climate change signal that is represented by the CHMs, we find, however, that for some catchments there are differences between GHMs and CHMs in mean annual runoff due to differences in potential evaporation estimation methods, in the representation of the seasonality of runoff, and in the magnitude of changes in extreme monthly runoff, all of which have implications for future water management issues.

Improving runoff estimates from regional climate models: a performance analysis in Spain

An important step to assess water availability is to have monthly time series representative of the current situation. In this context, a simple methodology is presented for application in large-scale studies in regions where a properly calibrated hydrologic model is not available, using the output variables simulated by regional climate models (RCMs) of the European project PRUDENCE under current climate conditions (period 1961–1990). The methodology compares different interpolation methods and alternatives to generate annual times series that minimise the bias with respect to observed values. The objective is to identify the best alternative to obtain bias-corrected, monthly runoff time series from the output of RCM simulations. This study uses information from 338 basins in Spain that cover the entire mainland territory and whose observed values of natural runoff have been estimated by the distributed hydrological model SIMPA. Four interpolation methods for downscaling runoff to the basin scale from 10 RCMs are compared with emphasis on the ability of each method to reproduce the observed behaviour of this variable. The alternatives consider the use of the direct runoff of the RCMs and the mean annual runoff calculated using five functional forms of the aridity index, defined as the ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. In addition, the comparison with respect to the global runoff reference of the UNH/GRDC dataset is evaluated, as a contrast of the “best estimator” of current runoff on a large scale. Results show that the bias is minimised using the direct original interpolation method and the best alternative for bias correction of the monthly direct runoff time series of RCMs is the UNH/GRDC dataset, although the formula proposed by Schreiber (1904) also gives good results

Influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on urban stormwater quality

This thesis presents the outcomes of a comprehensive research study undertaken to investigate the influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on urban stormwater quality. The knowledge created is expected to contribute to a greater understanding of urban stormwater quality and thereby enhance the design of stormwater quality treatment systems. The research study was undertaken based on selected urban catchments in Gold Coast, Australia. The research methodology included field investigations, laboratory testing, computer modelling and data analysis. Both univariate and multivariate data analysis techniques were used to investigate the influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on urban stormwater quality. The rainfall characteristics investigated included average rainfall intensity and rainfall duration whilst catchment characteristics included land use, impervious area percentage, urban form and pervious area location. The catchment scale data for the analysis was obtained from four residential catchments, including rainfall-runoff records, drainage network data, stormwater quality data and land use and land cover data. Pollutants build-up samples were collected from twelve road surfaces in residential, commercial and industrial land use areas. The relationships between rainfall characteristics, catchment characteristics and urban stormwater quality were investigated based on residential catchments and then extended to other land uses. Based on the influence rainfall characteristics exert on urban stormwater quality, rainfall events can be classified into three different types, namely, high average intensity-short duration (Type 1), high average intensity-long duration (Type 2) and low average intensity-long duration (Type 3). This provides an innovative approach to conventional modelling which does not commonly relate stormwater quality to rainfall characteristics. Additionally, it was found that the threshold intensity for pollutant wash-off from urban catchments is much less than for rural catchments. High average intensity-short duration rainfall events are cumulatively responsible for the generation of a major fraction of the annual pollutants load compared to the other rainfall event types. Additionally, rainfall events less than 1 year ARI such as 6- month ARI should be considered for treatment design as they generate a significant fraction of the annual runoff volume and by implication a significant fraction of the pollutants load. This implies that stormwater treatment designs based on larger rainfall events would not be feasible in the context of cost-effectiveness, efficiency in treatment performance and possible savings in land area needed. This also suggests that the simulation of long-term continuous rainfall events for stormwater treatment design may not be needed and that event based simulations would be adequate. The investigations into the relationship between catchment characteristics and urban stormwater quality found that other than conventional catchment characteristics such as land use and impervious area percentage, other catchment characteristics such as urban form and pervious area location also play important roles in influencing urban stormwater quality. These outcomes point to the fact that the conventional modelling approach in the design of stormwater quality treatment systems which is commonly based on land use and impervious area percentage would be inadequate. It was also noted that the small uniformly urbanised areas within a larger mixed catchment produce relatively lower variations in stormwater quality and as expected lower runoff volume with the opposite being the case for large mixed use urbanised catchments. Therefore, a decentralised approach to water quality treatment would be more effective rather than an "end-of-pipe" approach. The investigation of pollutants build-up on different land uses showed that pollutant build-up characteristics vary even within the same land use. Therefore, the conventional approach in stormwater quality modelling, which is based solely on land use, may prove to be inappropriate. Industrial land use has relatively higher variability in maximum pollutant build-up, build-up rate and particle size distribution than the other two land uses. However, commercial and residential land uses had relatively higher variations of nutrients and organic carbon build-up. Additionally, it was found that particle size distribution had a relatively higher variability for all three land uses compared to the other build-up parameters. The high variability in particle size distribution for all land uses illustrate the dissimilarities associated with the fine and coarse particle size fractions even within the same land use and hence the variations in stormwater quality in relation to pollutants adsorbing to different sizes of particles.

Selecting rainfall events for effective Water Sensitive Urban Design: A case study in Gold Coast City, Australia

The current approach for protecting the receiving water environment from urban stormwater pollution is the adoption of structural measures commonly referred to as Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD). The treatment efficiency of WSUD measures closely depends on the design of the specific treatment units. As stormwater quality is influenced by rainfall characteristics, the selection of appropriate rainfall events for treatment design is essential to ensure the effectiveness of WSUD systems. Based on extensive field investigations in four urban residential catchments based at Gold Coast, Australia, and computer modelling, this paper details a technically robust approach for the selection of rainfall events for stormwater treatment design using a three-component model. The modelling results confirmed that high intensity-short duration events produce 58.0% of TS load while they only generated 29.1% of total runoff volume. Additionally, rainfall events smaller than 6-month average recurrence interval (ARI) generates a greater cumulative runoff volume (68.4% of the total annual runoff volume) and TS load (68.6% of the TS load exported) than the rainfall events larger than 6-month ARI. The results suggest that for the study catchments, stormwater treatment design could be based on the rainfall which had a mean value of 31 mm/h average intensity and 0.4 h duration. These outcomes also confirmed that selecting smaller ARI rainfall events with high intensity-short duration as the threshold for treatment system design is the most feasible approach since these events cumulatively generate a major portion of the annual pollutant load compared to the other types of events, despite producing a relatively smaller runoff volume. This implies that designs based on small and more frequent rainfall events rather than larger rainfall events would be appropriate in the context of efficiency in treatment performance, cost-effectiveness and possible savings in land area needed.

A quantitative analysis of the phytoplankton of the Gulf of Panama III. General ecological conditions and the phytoplankton dynamics at 8°45'N, 79°23'W from November 1954 to May 1957

Bi-weekly phytoplankton samples were collected at 0, 10, and 20 m and enumerated by the Utermöhl sedimentation technique; 14C productivity measurements at 10 m, oblique zooplankton tows, and routine hydrographic observations were also made. Northerly winds induce upwelling during December-April, followed by a rainy season; a slight resurgence in upwelling may occur during July and/or August. Annual variations in upwelling intensity and rainfall occur. During upwelling, the upper 50 m, about 30 per cent of the total volume of the Gulf of Panama, is replaced with water 5 to 10 C colder than the more stratified, turbid and nutrient impoverished watermass present during the rainy season. The mean annual runoff accompanying an average annual precipitation of 2731 mm is estimated to equal a layer of fresh water 3.2 m thick. About 10 per cent of the phytoplankton phosphate and inorganic nitrogen requirements during the rainy season are accreted. (PDF contains 260 pages.)

On the climatology, oceanography and fisheries of the Panama Bight

ENGLISH: Seasonal changes in the climatology, oceanography and fisheries of the Panama Bight are determined mainly by the latitudinal movements of the ITCZ over the region. Evaporation is about 980 mm annually. Rainfall is probably much less than previous estimates because of a discontinuity in the ITCZ. Freshwater runoff from the northern watershed varies from 22 X 109 m3/mo in October-November to 11 X 109 m3/mo in February-March; from the southeastern watershed it varies from 16 X 109 m3/mo in April-June to 9 X 109 m3/mo in October-December. Total annual runoff is about 350 X 109m3. A marked salinity front is found at all seasons off the eastern shore. In the northern part of the Bight temperatures in the upper layers remained fairly constant from May to November; by February the mean temperature had decreased by 4°C and sharp gradients existed in the geographic distributions. Salinities in the upper layers decreased steadily from May to November; by February the mean salinity had increased by 2.5‰. The mean depth of the mixed layer increased from 27 m in May to 40 m in November; by February upwelling decreased it to 18 m. Between November and February upwelling had doubled the amount of P04-P and tripled that of NO3-N in the euphotic zone; surface phytoplankton production and standing crop, and zooplankton concentrations also doubled during this period. Upwelling was about 1.5 m/mo during May-November and about 9.0 m/mo during November-February, the annual total is about 48 m, Mean primary production is about 0.3 gC/m2day during May-December and about 0.6 gC/m2day during January-April; annual production is about 140 gC/m2. A thermal ridge occurred in February running from the northern to the southwestern part of the Bight. Within this ridge was a marked thermal dome coinciding with the center of the cyclonic circulation cell. Upwelling in the dome averaged 16 m/mo in November-February. The fisheries of the Panama Bight annually produce about 30,000 metric tons of food species and about 68,000 m.t. of species used for reduction. Most attempts to further the understanding of tuna ecology were unsuccessful. The apparent abundances of yellowfin and skipjack in the northern part of the Bight appear to be related to the seasonal cycle of upwelling and enrichment, as abundances are greatest in April and May when food appears to be plentiful. The life-cycle of the anchoveta in the Gulf of Panama also appears to be related to upwelling; the species mass varies from about 39,000 m.t. in December to about 169,000 m.t, in April. About 19.1 X 1012 anchoveta eggs are spawned annually. The life-cycles of shrimp in the Panama Bight appear to be related to upwelling as catches are greatest in May-July, about 3-5 months after peak upwelling, and annual catches are inversely correlated with sea level. SPANISH: Los cambios estacionales en la climatología, oceanografía y pesquerías del Panamá Bight están determinados principalmente por el movimiento latitudinal sobre la región de la Zona de Convergencia Intertropical (ZCIT). La evaporación es de unos 980 mm al año. La pluviosidad es probablemente muy inferior a las estimaciones previas a causa de la descontinuidad en la ZCIT. El drenaje de agua dulce, de la vertiente septentrional, varía de 22 x 109m3/mes en octubre-noviembre hasta 11 x 109m3/mes en febreromarzo; el de la vertiente sudeste varía de 16 x 109m3/mes en abril-junio a 9 x 109m3/mes en octubre-diciembre. El drenaje total, anual, es alrededor de 350 x 109m3. En todas las estaciones frente al litoral oriental se encuentra un frente de salinidad marcada. En la parte septentrional del Bight las temperaturas en las capas superiores permanecieron más bien constantes de mayo a noviembre; en febrero la temperatura media había disminuido en unos 4°C y existieron gradientes agudos en las distribuciones geográficas. Las salinidades en las capas superiores disminuyeron constantemente de mayo a noviembre; en febrero la salinidad media había aumentado en 2.5‰. La profundidad media de la capa mixta aumentó de 27 m en mayo a 40 m en noviembre; en febrero el afloramiento disminuyó el espesor de la capa mixta hasta 18 m. Entre noviembre y febrero el afloramiento había duplicado la cantidad de PO4-P y triplicado la de NO3-N en la zona eufótica; la producción superficial de fitoplancton y la biomasa primaria y las concentraciones de zooplancton también se duplicaron durante este período. El afloramiento era cerca de 1.5 mimes durante mayo-noviembre y de unos 9.0 mimes durante noviembre-febrero, el total anual es de unos 48 m. La producción media primaria es aproximadamente de 0.3 gC/m2 al día durante mayo-diciembre y cerca de 0.6 gC/m2 al día durante enero-abril; la producción anual es de unos 140 gC/m2. En febrero apareció una convexidad termal que se extendió de la parte norte a la parte sudoeste del Bight. Dentro de esta convexidad se encontró un domo termal marcado el cual coincidió con el centro de la circulación ciclonal de la célula. El afloramiento en el domo tuvo un promedio de 16 mimes en noviembre-febrero. Las pesquerías del Panamá Bight producen anualmente de cerca 30,000 toneladas métricas de especies alimenticias y unas 68,000 t.m. de especies usadas para la reducción. La mayoría de los esfuerzos realizados con el fin de adquirir más conocimiento sobre la ecología del atún no tuvo éxito. La abundancia aparente del atún aleta amarilla y del barrilete en la parte septentrional del Bight parece estar relacionada con el ciclo estacional del afloramiento y del enriquecimiento, ya que la abundancia mayor en abril y mayo cuando parece que hay abundancia es de alimento. El ciclo de vida de la anchoveta en el Golfo de Panamá parece también que está relacionada al afloramiento. La masa de la especie varía de unas 39,000 t.m. en diciembre a cerca de 169,000 t.m. en abril. Aproximadamente 19.1 x 1012 huevos de anchoveta son desovados anualmente. Los ciclos de vida del camarón en el Panamá Bight parecen estar relacionados con el afloramiento ya que las capturas son superiores en mayo-julio, unos 3-5 meses después del ápice del afloramiento, y las capturas anuales se correlacionan inversamente con el nivel del mar. (PDF contains 340 pages.)

A study of the proposed Diamond Creek Reservoir

Politically the Colorado river is an interstate as well as an international stream. Physically the basin divides itself distinctly into three sections. The upper section from head waters to the mouth of San Juan comprises about 40 percent of the total of the basin and affords about 87 percent of the total runoff, or an average of about 15 000 000 acre feet per annum. High mountains and cold weather are found in this section. The middle section from the mouth of San Juan to the mouth of the Williams comprises about 35 percent of the total area of the basin and supplies about 7 percent of the annual runoff. Narrow canyons and mild weather prevail in this section. The lower third of the basin is composed of mainly hot arid plains of low altitude. It comprises some 25 percent of the total area of the basin and furnishes about 6 percent of the average annual runoff.

The proposed Diamond Creek reservoir is located in the middle section and is wholly within the boundary of Arizona. The site is at the mouth of Diamond Creek and is only 16 m. from Beach Spring, a station on the Santa Fe railroad. It is solely a power project with a limited storage capacity. The dam which creats the reservoir is of the gravity type to be constructed across the river. The walls and foundation are of granite. For a dam of 290 feet in height, the back water will be about 25 m. up the river.

The power house will be placed right below the dam perpendicular to the axis of the river. It is entirely a concrete structure. The power installation would consist of eighteen 37 500 H.P. vertical, variable head turbines, directly connected to 28 000 kwa. 110 000 v. 3 phase, 60 cycle generators with necessary switching and auxiliary apparatus. Each unit is to be fed by a separate penstock wholly embedded into the masonry.

Concerning the power market, the main electric transmission lines would extend to Prescott, Phoenix, Mesa, Florence etc. The mining regions of the mountains of Arizona would be the most adequate market. The demand of power in the above named places might not be large at present. It will, from the observation of the writer, rapidly increase with the wonderful advancement of all kinds of industrial development.

All these things being comparatively feasible, there is one difficult problem: that is the silt. At the Diamond Creek dam site the average annual silt discharge is about 82 650 acre feet. The geographical conditions, however, will not permit silt deposites right in the reservoir. So this design will be made under the assumption given in Section 4.

The silt condition and the change of lower course of the Colorado are much like those of the Yellow River in China. But one thing is different. On the Colorado most of the canyon walls are of granite, while those on the Yellow are of alluvial loess: so it is very hard, if not impossible, to get a favorable dam site on the lower part. As a visitor to this country, I should like to see the full development of the Colorado: but how about THE YELLOW!

大尺度流域不同地貌类型区水土保持减水效益分析

趋势分析结果显示 ,河源涧区、风沙区、丘陵区各代表流域年径流量均在 1970年前后发生一致性改变 ,即从 1970年以来开始有明显的减少趋势 ,平均减流幅度 (与 195 9～ 196 9年径流相比 )以河源涧区 (大理河 )和丘陵区 (小理河 )最大 ,分别为 36 .33%和 36 .2 1% ,风沙区 (海流兔河 )最小 (2 0 .6 1% )。减流幅度的大小是各类型区下垫面状况、水土保持措施和治理程度、降雨量变化等多种因素综合作用的结果。借助适合于黄土高原降雨 -产流特性的月水量平衡改进模型 ,计算天然状态下降雨应有的产流量与同期实测径流量求得减水效果。结果表明 ,3个地貌类型区 70年代的减水效益没有明显差异 ,而在 80年代减水效果差异显著 ,丘陵区 (小理河 ,2 4.99% ) >风沙区 (海流兔河 ,17.2 8% ) >河源涧区 (大理河 ,13.13% )。上述结论为定量评价黄土高原生态环境建设对黄河水资源及水环境演变的影响提供了数据基础。

Understanding and modelling hydrological and soil erosion processes in burnt forest catchments

Forest fires implications in overland flow and soil erosion have been researched for several years. Therefore, is widely known that fires enhance hydrological and geomorphological activity worldwide as also in Mediterranean areas. Soil burn severity has been widely used to describe the impacts of fire on soils, and has being recognized as a decisive factor controlling post-fire erosion rates. However, there is no unique definition of the term and the relationship between soil burn severity and post-fire hydrological and erosion response has not yet been fully established. Few studies have assessed post-fire erosion over multiple years, and the authors are aware of none which assess runoff. Small amount of studies concerning pre-fire management practices were also found. In the case of soil erosion models, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and the revised Morgan–Morgan–Finney (MMF) are well-known models, but not much information is available as regards their suitability in predicting post-fire soil erosion in forest soils. The lack of information is even more pronounced as regards post-fire rehabilitation treatments. The aim of the thesis was to perform an extensive research under the post fire hydrologic and erosive response subject. By understanding the effect of burn severity in ecosystems and its implications regarding post fire hydrological and erosive responses worldwide. Test the effect of different pre-fire land management practices (unplowed, downslope plowed and contour plowed) and time-since-fire, in the post fire hydrological and erosive response, between the two most common land uses in Portugal (pine and eucalypt). Assess the performance of two widely-known erosion models (RUSLE and Revised MMF), to predict soil erosion rates during first year following two wildfires of distinctive burn severity. Furthermore, to apply these two models considering different post-fire rehabilitation treatments in an area severely affected by fire. Improve model estimations of post-fire runoff and erosion rates in two different land uses (pine and eucalypt) using the revised MMF. To assess these improvements by comparing estimations and measurements of runoff and erosion, in two recently burned sites, as also with their post fire rehabilitation treatments. Model modifications involved: (1) focusing on intra-annual changes in parameters to incorporate seasonal differences in runoff and erosion; and (2) inclusion of soil water repellency in runoff predictions. Additionally, validate these improvements with the application of the model to other pine and eucalypt sites in Central Portugal. The review and meta-analysis showed that fire occurrence had a significant effect on the hydrological and erosive response. However, this effect was only significantly higher with increasing soil burn severity for inter-rill erosion, and not for runoff. This study furthermore highlighted the incoherencies between existing burn severity classifications, and proposed an unambiguous classification. In the case of the erosion plots with natural rainfall, land use factor affected annual runoff while land management affected both annual runoff and erosion amounts significantly. Time-since-fire had an important effect in erosion amounts among unplowed sites, while for eucalypt sites time affected both annual runoff and erosion amounts. At all studied sites runoff coefficients increase over the four years of monitoring. In the other hand, sediment concentration in the runoff, recorded a decrease during the same period. Reasons for divergence from the classic post-fire recovery model were also explored. Short fire recurrence intervals and forest management practices are viewed as the main reasons for the observed severe and continuing soil degradation. The revised MMF model presented reasonable accuracy in the predictions while the RUSLE clearly overestimated the observed erosion rates. After improvements: the revised model was able to predict first-year post-fire plot-scale runoff and erosion rates for both forest types, these predictions were improved both by the seasonal changes in the model parameters; and by considering the effect of soil water repellency on the runoff, individual seasonal predictions were considered accurate, and the inclusion of the soil water repellency in the model also improved the model at this base. The revised MMF model proved capable of providing a simple set of criteria for management decisions about runoff and erosion mitigation measures in burned areas. The erosion predictions at the validation sites attested both to the robustness of the model and of the calibration parameters, suggesting a potential wider application.

A sensitivity study for water availability in the Northern Caucasus based on climate projections

A strong climatic warming is currently observed in the Caucasus mountains, which has profound impact on runoff generation in the glaciated Glavny (Main) Range and on water availability in the whole region. To assess future changes in the hydrological cycle, the output of a general circulation model was downscaled statistically. For the 21st century, a further warming by 4–7 °C and a slight precipitation increase is predicted. Measured and simulated meteorological variables were used as input into a runoff model to transfer climate signals into a hydrological response under both present and future climate forcings. Runoff scenarios for the mid and the end of the 21st century were generated for different steps of deglaciation. The results show a satisfactory model performance for periods with observed runoff. Future water availability strongly depends on the velocity of glacier retreat. In a first phase, a surplus of water will increase flood risk in hot years and after continuing glacier reduction, annual runoff will again approximate current values. However, the seasonal distribution of streamflow will change towards runoff increase in spring and lower flows in summer.

The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on a series of indicators of hydrological regimes across the global domain, using a global hydrological model run with climate scenarios constructed using pattern-scaling from 21 CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3) climate models. Changes are compared with natural variability, with a significant change being defined as greater than the standard deviation of the hydrological indicator in the absence of climate change. Under an SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1b emissions scenario, substantial proportions of the land surface (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) would experience significant changes in hydrological behaviour by 2050; under one climate model scenario (Hadley Centre HadCM3), average annual runoff increases significantly over 47% of the land surface and decreases over 36%; only 17% therefore sees no significant change. There is considerable variability between regions, depending largely on projected changes in precipitation. Uncertainty in projected river flow regimes is dominated by variation in the spatial patterns of climate change between climate models (hydrological model uncertainty is not included). There is, however, a strong degree of consistency in the overall magnitude and direction of change. More than two-thirds of climate models project a significant increase in average annual runoff across almost a quarter of the land surface, and a significant decrease over 14%, with considerably higher degrees of consistency in some regions. Most climate models project increases in runoff in Canada and high-latitude eastern Europe and Siberia, and decreases in runoff in central Europe, around the Mediterranean, the Mashriq, central America and Brasil. There is some evidence that projecte change in runoff at the regional scale is not linear with change in global average temperature change. The effects of uncertainty in the rate of future emissions is relatively small

Hydrological aspects of the tropical rainforest in the central Amazon.

Annual runoff, loss by interception, transpiration and evapotranspiration of two watersheds in the Amazon rainforest of the terra firme type in central Amazonia, were estimated. The results show the significant importance of the forest to the present ecological balance of the region, which may be seriously altered if uncontrolled and unplanned deforestation continues.-from Authors

Modelagem do transporte de sedimentos na alta Bacia do Córrego Cachoeirinha (Rio Claro, SP) através do software Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)

This study aimed to simulate and evaluate the sediment transport in Upper Basin Stream Cachoeirinha in Rio Claro, SP, and compare the results with previous studies performed in the same basin. The modeling software used in this study was Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which is a very comprehensive tool that discusses many physical processes. In this work, the hydrosedimentological processes were treated, aiming to understand the sediment production and transport. The Basin Stream Cachoeirinha has an area with predominantly agricultural use, especially sugar cane. The database for inclusion in software was constructed from the following elements: climatic, topographical, soil type and use and land cover of the area, also including the parameters of Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE). The analysis was conducted for a period of 16 years (1994-2010), which is the range of data available from CEAPLA. The results were analyzed in terms of annual runoff and sediment yield. The average sediment delivery in the simulation was 0.94 t/ha/year, while the maximum annual contribution was 7.28 t/ha/year

Abflussverhalten kleiner, forstlich genutzter Bacheinzugsgebiete am Beispiel des Einzugsgebietes des Oberen Gräfenbaches im Soonwald/Hunsrück

Die vorliegende Arbeit sollte weitere Erkenntnisse zum Abflussverhalten forstlich genutzter Standorte im Einzugsgebiet der Nahe liefern. Zu diesem Zweck wurde das 12,73 km² umfassenden Einzugsgebietes des Oberen Gräfenbaches als Untersuchungsgebiet ausgewählt, das im fast ausschließlich waldbestandenen Soonwald lokalisiert ist. Das Einzugsgebiet wurde ab 1999 mit einem hydrometeorologischen Messnetz ausgestattet. Zusammen mit Geländebeobachtungen des Abflussgeschehens und einer Aufnahme der physiogeographischen Gebietseigenschaften wurde eine Analyse des Abflussverhaltens möglich. Die Analysen umfassten die grundlegende quantitative Auswertung der erhobenen Zeitreihen mit Hilfe statistisch-mathematischer Verfahren und die Nachbildung der hydrologischen Prozesse mit Hilfe des Modells MMS/PRMS. Die räumliche Diskretisierung des Gebietes erfolgte dabei durch Ausweisung von Hydrological Response Units (HRUs). Die Nachbildung des Ist-Zustandes wurde durch Rechnung mehrerer Landnutzungsszenarien ergänzt. Die Untersuchungen zeigten die enorme Variabilität der Gebietsabflüsse bei insgesamt hohen Jahresabflussvolumina auf. Zwischen den einzelnen Hangbereichen bestehen dabei grundlegende Unterschiede, die sowohl die Abflussbildungsprozesse als auch den Abflussgang betreffen. Im Rahmen der Landnutzungsszenarien wurde aufbauend deutlich, dass sich eine Veränderung der forstlichen Bestandeszusammensetzung nur nachrangig auf die Abflussentstehung auswirkt.